UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying Group B

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10/10/2022, 6:09 PM
seanfhear

If Kenny is an Unlucky General then .................
10/10/2022, 6:26 PM
Bielsa�s irish

For me is simple after this draw, Kenny has to step down.
France at home defeat
Greece in Salonika/ Athens a defeat
Gibraltar at home a narrow victory a draw.
Then it comes Holland and Co. Doomed
The guy has bad karma I think.

If Martin O Neill is a wiseguy lucky coach, this Kenny coach is the opposite.
He must resign
10/10/2022, 7:48 PM
SkStu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diggs246

Because we are in pot 3 because of kenny and his poor results
You create your luck in life

We were in Pot 3 (2020) and Pot 4 (2018) before Kenny came along. Like, come on..

I suppose another way of looking at it is he?s kept us in the third seed spot despite the challenges of a change in approach and a significant change in personnel.
10/10/2022, 8:02 PM
Real ale Madrid

Quote:

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

2016 is a long time ago. Since then they've been decidedly underwhelming at the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020 and needed the playoffs to reach Qatar. There's been plenty of comments too that they're far from the sum of their parts, and I think their manager was coming under a fair bit of pressure for it in the lead up to that Faro game

That's a long way from "specialising in underperforming" to be fair.

It's hardly a criticism anyway to say we were backs against the wall away to Portugal. We'll be backs against the wall against France and Holland away like we would any top side away from home.
10/10/2022, 8:10 PM
pineapple stu

The point being made was that the performance in Portugal - 28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 - was a benchmark performance for the team to hit.

I don't think it is at all, and I think if France/Holland have those sort of stats against us, we could easily lose 3-0/4-0.

You can acknowledge we defended well while at the same time recognising that the overall team performance wasn't the sort of one we should target on a regular basis.
10/10/2022, 8:11 PM
CSAD

Quote:

Originally Posted by elatedscum

It was an awful draw.

There were 5 teams you wanted to avoid in Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Portugal. In Pool 2, there were 2 teams: France, England. And if you did get France or England, you'd hope you'd get a team like Hungary or Switzerland or Poland. So we basically had a 10% chance of getting a rough draw and with France being stronger than England and the Netherlands stronger than average good Pot 1 side. Getting the second best and the best team in both pots is basically a 2% outcome, getting Spain and France being the 1% outcome, but the 6th percentile outcome for Ukraine is pretty bad too (Italy and England).

That's ignoring the 4th seed. Greece were probably the best 4th seed and them and Turkey were the only have decent sides in that pot. Once again though, if you're purely talking about qualification, then when you've got two excellent teams, the quality of the 4th seed is pretty immaterial - like there's no scenario where it's us and Greece qualifying. And Greece are more likely to take points off France than the Faroe Islands would be. Obviously the chance of us coming 4th is much higher than it would be if we had the Faroes in our group, which will affect our future seedings and so on.

What you'd hope is that one of France and Netherlands beat the other home and away, and we pick up draws against them all, even 3 draws and a loss would be enough if it were against the better side. Then we beat Gibraltar and Greece home and away. That's how you'd map the path. It starts with not losing to France in March.

To be honest if we want any chance of 2nd we simply have to beat France in the first game. If I look back to 2018 when the Dutch and French were in the same group Sweden actually pipped the Dutch but despite that they didn?t do that well over the 4 matches against the top seeds, they beat France yes (very lucky, France basic handed Sweden their winner in the last kick of the game) but what happened was the French beat the Dutch twice and the Dutch then slipped up in Sofia. What we could do with winning the Greek & Gibraltar games (home and away, easier said than done but that has to be the target). Be competitive at home against the French and Dutch and fingers crossed we somehow pull the unthinkable in one of them and after that see how the cards fall.
10/10/2022, 8:18 PM
CSAD

Quote:

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

The point being made was that the performance in Portugal - 28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 - was a benchmark performance for the team to hit.

I don't think it is at all, and I think if France/Holland have those sort of stats against us, we could easily lose 3-0/4-0

You could say the same about Portugal though considering who they had in their attack. I think you are massively overestimating Holland and France quality in comparison to Portugal. Portugal had Jota, CR7, Bernardo Silva in their attack and couldn?t score for 89 minutes with those stats, if they couldn?t score then what?s to say the others would? Maybe if they scored from every chance they created which is unlikely even for a general as unlucky as Kenny.
10/10/2022, 8:24 PM
Jd2793

Quote:

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

The point being made was that the performance in Portugal - 28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 - was a benchmark performance for the team to hit.

I don't think it is at all, and I think if France/Holland have those sort of stats against us, we could easily lose 3-0/4-0.

You can acknowledge we defended well while at the same time recognising that the overall team performance wasn't the sort of one we should target on a regular basis.

we did struggle to get out 2nd half but at the same time they really didnt create much at all. we limited them to what were mostly speculative long range efforts dont think they carved us open much at all? seriba at home was the worst performance of the lot tbh that was a real pasting.
10/10/2022, 8:26 PM
elatedscum

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diggs246

Because we are in pot 3 because of kenny and his poor results
You create your luck in life

not that much:

Ukraine who finished ahead of us, got Italy and England.

Armenia who finished bottom of our group got Croatia, Wales, Armenia, Turkey, Latvia.

Nothern Ireland who were 5th seeds got: Denmark, Finland, Slovenia, Kazakstan, Northern Ireland, San Marino. Genuinely if Kenny had lost almost every game we had since he arrived that might have been our slot in the groups.
11/10/2022, 5:44 AM
ifk101

Quote:

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

The point being made was that the performance in Portugal - 28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 - was a benchmark performance for the team to hit.

I don't think it is at all, and I think if France/Holland have those sort of stats against us, we could easily lose 3-0/4-0.

You can acknowledge we defended well while at the same time recognising that the overall team performance wasn't the sort of one we should target on a regular basis.

We had 66% possession, 8 v 1 corners, and 21 v 4 shots against Armenia. So against other opposition with those stats we win 3 or 4-0? Benchmark performance to hit?

Doesn't tell the full story though, does it? Sometimes you need to watch the games ....
11/10/2022, 7:11 AM
CSAD

Quote:

Originally Posted by ifk101

We had 66% possession, 8 v 1 corners, and 21 v 4 shots against Armenia. So against other opposition with those stats we win 3 or 4-0? Benchmark performance to hit?

Doesn't tell the full story though, does it? Sometimes you need to watch the games ....

And with 7 shots on target from 29 should tell you (like watching the game would) a lot of those shots were desperate shots because they couldn?t break down the Irish defense.
11/10/2022, 8:31 AM
ifk101

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSAD

And with 7 shots on target from 29 should tell you (like watching the game would) a lot of those shots were desperate shots because they couldn?t break down the Irish defense.

Presumably the penalty saved, and goals in the 89th and 96th minute are three of the shots on target. 12 of the 29 shots are classified as "shots blocked" - defenders doing their job in other words :-)
11/10/2022, 9:29 AM
osarusan

Terrible draw for Ireland

Not the worst draw for Kenny in that Ireland could lose home and away to both Netherlands and France and not have people calling for his head. Greece a potential threat in that regard, but hard to know how they'll be looking when the games come around.

Gibraltar...he has to manage wins home and away. If not surely it is over then and there for hm.
11/10/2022, 10:01 AM
pineapple stu

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSAD

You could say the same about Portugal though considering who they had in their attack. I think you are massively overestimating Holland and France quality in comparison to Portugal. Portugal had Jota, CR7, Bernardo Silva in their attack and couldn?t score for 89 minutes with those stats, if they couldn?t score then what?s to say the others would? Maybe if they scored from every chance they created which is unlikely even for a general as unlucky as Kenny.

Correct on Portugal - hence the comment that they're often less than the sum of their parts lately.

But what's to say others would have scored with those stats? Perhaps the fact that others have scored with those stats? From 2020, a game with 44% possession, 4 shots v 20, 2 corners v 12 ended England 3-0 Ireland. We barely laid a glove on our last trip to France in 2018 - 24% possession, 5 shots v 18, 2 corners v 9 - and we were flattered by a 2-0 scoreline. Go back a bit further, and you have Germany 3-0 Ireland, with 25% possession, 12 shots v 28, 4 corners v 16. That's going to happen more often than not when you give up that many chances.

So again, the performance in Portugal was not a bench-mark performance we should be looking to achieve. And you could reach that conclusion by watching the game as well as looking at the stats.
11/10/2022, 11:22 AM
ifk101

Quote:

Originally Posted by osarusan

Terrible draw for Ireland

Not the worst draw for Kenny in that Ireland could lose home and away to both Netherlands and France and not have people calling for his head. Greece a potential threat in that regard, but hard to know how they'll be looking when the games come around.

Gibraltar...he has to manage wins home and away. If not surely it is over then and there for hm.

So, you are suggesting a contract extension for the next two qualification campaigns? (dependent on wins against Gibraltar and possibly Greece (depending on how Greece turn out to be)). Because if he is currently incentivised to lose with the difficult EC draw, a contract extension for the next WC qualification campaign removes that incentive and aligns our best interests?
11/10/2022, 12:11 PM
Diggs246

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkStu

We were in Pot 3 (2020) and Pot 4 (2018) before Kenny came along. Like, come on..

I suppose another way of looking at it is he?s kept us in the third seed spot despite the challenges of a change in approach and a significant change in personnel.

I might be wrong here but was there not a situation a while back were all we had to do was beat a hopeless Bulgarian team in Dublin. To mentain or go up a pot? I might be wrong
11/10/2022, 12:16 PM
zero

Quote:

Originally Posted by ifk101

So, you are suggesting a contract extension for the next two qualification campaigns? (dependent on wins against Gibraltar and possibly Greece (depending on how Greece turn out to be)). Because if he is currently incentivised to lose with the difficult EC draw, a contract extension for the next WC qualification campaign removes that incentive and aligns our best interests?

I think there's a significant number of fans who don't care about qualifying anymore. The old 'we don't have the players' line that is trotted out when a team is a mess. There's an attitude of let SK at it, sure we'll never qualify anyway, give the young lads a chance and knock the ball around at the back.
11/10/2022, 12:37 PM
nigel-harps1954

Quote:

Originally Posted by osarusan

Gibraltar...he has to manage wins home and away. If not surely it is over then and there for hm.

Something Mick McCarthy only barely managed to do, to be fair.
11/10/2022, 1:23 PM
osarusan

Quote:

Originally Posted by ifk101

So, you are suggesting a contract extension for the next two qualification campaigns? (dependent on wins against Gibraltar and possibly Greece (depending on how Greece turn out to be)). Because if he is currently incentivised to lose with the difficult EC draw, a contract extension for the next WC qualification campaign removes that incentive and aligns our best interests?

I think he should already be gone.

Im just saying that the kind of opponent that a defeat against would really generate pressure on him becomes less likely with the draw we got.
11/10/2022, 1:23 PM
brine3

Quote:

Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

France and The Netherlands and not much better than Denmark and Switzerland?

To be fair, Switzerland did knock France out of the Euros and qualified for the World Cup ahead of Italy.

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