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I think our squad though is just so different as to make the comparison void unfortunately.
Given, Finnan, Harte, Breen, Staunton, Keane, Holland, Duff, McAteer, Keane, Quinn. I would take every one of those players now. Plus the likes of Gary Kelly, Cunningham, Kinsella, Reid...
I'd be more worried about 1 point from 6 when we met Serbia in 2018 qualifying
Lots of ridiculous optimism when it’ll be a battle between us and Azerbaijan to see who finishes third and fourth. Get rid of Kenny early and we’ve a chance of third.
Fine margins, but if we get supporters back into Lansdowne Rd for the Portugal game we'll give them a game. If we get something from that, 2 or 3 points against Serbia should be enough for 2nd place.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
I don't think 3 points will do it tbh. They'll pick up something from the other games which we won't. 4 points would be great of course, but I fear that's very unrealistic when we got 2 off Bulgaria and nothing off Finland
Agree that 2nd place isn't outside our grasp (easy to say before a ball is kicked I know...). Taking points from Portugal or Serbia is possible even for squad as limited as ours.Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
Unlike previous qualifications though, 2nd place is now a tougher pathway. 3 WC spots for 10 runners-up and two highest ranked Nations League teams. So we need to win play-offs against two teams to get through.
if we get 17/18 points we would get a play off spot
The current Portugal side are European ChampionsQuote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
And if we were facing the 2016 version of the Portugal team i'd be a lot less optimistic about getting a result against them.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
As someone with a passing interest in football I did notice that peak Christiano Ronaldo wasn't bad at the game. But as a man at the wrong end of his 30s I'm also aware that things change a lot between 31 and 36.
I don't know what people do be smoking on here regarding some of their insights. Portugal currently are one of the best teams in the world. They are reigning European and Nations League Champions and their squad is vastly superior to the one that won them the Euros in 2016 where they were very solid but unspectacular. They have a host of world class talent - Ronaldo, Jota, Dias, Fernandes, Silva and Felix. What great players are they missing compared to 2016 that makes them an easier proposition?
It's going to be very very tough
What's the point then?Quote:
Originally Posted by weldoninhio
They are missing peak Christiano Ronaldo.Quote:
Originally Posted by youngirish
Ronaldo dragged Portugal through that tournament in a way no player had done since Maradona in 86. He was a force of nature. Even standing on the touchline in the final he was leading that team.
He's still a danger, but at his age he just isn't capable of doing that anymore. They are a very strong side, but Dublin is a hard place to come. With a full Lansdowne Road behind us we can get a result off them. I've seen us do it far too many times to believe the people who say it's impossible.
Half of all Ronaldo's international goals have come since 2015.
That's basically giving them a goal headstart against teams like us.
Dublin isn't a hard place to come to. Russia, Finland, Wales, Serbia, Sweden and Denmark have all won competitive games here in the last few years - Russia and Denmark disarmingly easily. Portugal are better than any of those. Germany beat us 6-1, and really should have won easily in the Shane Long game
Honestly, the comparison to 2002 is silly. So, so much has changed since then. Not least that Portugal were serial underachievers then but now they've won two of the past three major international tournaments. That'll have lifted a monkey off their back. Of more relevance is the fact we lost 5-1 last time we played
Oh, and also none of our players would get in that 2002 team.
Yeah. CR7 has changed his game. He can't play like he did in 2016 anymore, so he just scores goals instead. But no man gets to defy Mother Nature and Father Time forever.
What happened over the 2 campaigns between 2012-2016 against Germany is a case in point. Nobody wanted to face them again in those European qualifiers, but we took 4 points from them. Anything is possible. International football is weird.
12 Oct 2012 Aviva Stadium 2014 WC Qual Loss 1 - 6
11 Oct 2013 Rhein Energie Stadium, Cologne 2014 WC Qual Loss 3 - 0
14 Oct 2014 Stadion Gelsenkirchen, Gelsenkirchen Euro 2016 Qual Draw 1 - 1
08 Oct 2015 Aviva Stadium Euro 2016 Qual Win 1 - 0
The thing is, to beat Portugal when Ronaldo is worth a goal headstart, we need to score twice. Even to draw with them, we need to score
Since Keane retired - also the start of our last World Cup campaign - we've scored 35 goals. Mitrovic has 32 in that time. Ronaldo has 41.
2002 means nothing up against that little stat. 2014 means little - we're so much weaker than then.
Ronaldo might not be at his peak, but he's scored eight goals in ten games for Juventus this season, is the second top scorer in Serie A, and won player of the month for November.
At international level, he scored three goals in six games for Portugal in 2020.
So, not at his peak, but still really, really good.
I think it's hard to understate the importance of a lethal striker too.
We got lucky in the 1-0 win against Germany. Less than 30% possession. 5 shots to 19 (plus a disallowed goal). 11 corners to 4. The highlights show some really bad finishing from Germany in the first half in particular.
I've also mentioned the 2-2 draw in Serbia - they missed some great chances, in particular hitting the bar from 6 yards and the one Coleman took off the line.
There's other examples too - the famous 0-0 in Russia is a while back now but probably the most extreme example of it.
But give Ronaldo those chances and we're sunk.
Honestly I think we'd be better looking at this from a developmental perspective. We're not going to qualify for the World Cup, even if we did somehow manage to get second in the group it's a one from four situation in the playoffs and those playoffs will be a lot tougher than the Euros playoffs we recently failed in, because only 10 teams quality automatically rather than 20. I'd say our chances of getting second in the group are four or five to one and coming through the subsequent playoffs would be eight or ten to one so we're probably realistically a one in forty chance or worse to make the finals.Quote:
Originally Posted by BonnieShels
Right now I'd be comfortable with coming third in this group as long as the starting team looks a lot more encouraging by the end of the campaign than it does now and there's a noticeable improvement in our execution of the gameplan and in the speed at which we move the ball.
I think the likes of Duffy, Hendrick, Hourihane, Brady and McClean are on their last legs with us in 2021. By the end of the year I'd be looking to see O'Shea, Molumby and Knight joining Connolly in the starting team if they continue to develop at their current rate. With Collins and Parrott in the squad pushing hard for a start.
We have potential but realistically it's going to be at least 2022 before we see much benefit of the talent we're producing. That's ideal timing for the Euro 2024 qualifiers though, which is maybe as well as a 24 team Euros is a more realistic goal for us right now. It's going to be a waiting game until then and it's going to be frustrating to watch at times, probably similar to the France 98 qualifiers for those who remember those games, except this time we're in a much tougher group so we won't be making the playoffs most likely.
It's a big year for Kenny though, he has a lot to prove in terms of whether he gets to take this team into the 2024 qualifiers - I have my doubts as to whether he'll survive until then because this year is likely to be a tough watch.
I agree that the 2002 squad comparison is nonsensical but for a different reason. It was built around 3 or 4 top players - Figo, Rui Costa, Fernando Cuoto and Paulo Sousa (who was past his best anyway). The rest of the bunch were mostly workmanlike home based players. They had no out and out goalscorer and often had to rely on a very average Nuno Gomes to dig them out of trouble. Have a look here and form your own opinion:Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_F...quads#Portugal
The current squad is vastly superior and contains some of the best players in the world playing for top clubs throughout Europe. Most of the midfielders and forwards would walk into that 2002 squad:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portug...#Current_squad
This campaign is the same as every one really.
Need 4 wins against Lux / Aze
Need to beat Serbia at home and probably pick up 1 point in Belgrade and 1 point at home to Portugal.
In all likelihood that would get you second place.
I reckon we will get the 4 wins and draw the 4 games with Por / Srb and then will need a bit of luck. We would need to improve to do that even.
If Kenny can improve the team through the campaign, we start scoring a few goals and remain in contention to the end he will probably keep his job through to 2024 even with a 3rd placed finish.