The 2016 GE thread

Turns out our shy Tories were shy FFer's. Mind boggling election results - the more elections I live through, the less convinced by democracy I am!

Inevitable that the blueshirts will, in fairness to them the same as they always do, put the "National Interest" first and pay the consequences whilst the rest of them fall over themselves to avoid making any decisions and hurl from the ditch. No reason it couldn't be a minority FF or SF administration. Actually, if FF and FG could work together on that one - say they'll support a SF minority on a case by case basis, that would be interesting!

How does private members legislation work in the Dáil? I'm assuming it normally doesn't go anywhere because the government have a mechanism to kill it like in most jurisdictions but in this Dáil who knows what could happen.

Votes for 16 year olds and the legalisation of cannabis jump to mind as possibilities all of a sudden

I had a rough week this week, and didn't have time to do any research on this, bar 10 mins on the bog with the SF manifesto. For the 2nd time in my life I considered not voting, although this was the first time I really meant it. I told my wife that unless she told me how to vote, I wasn't going, and ended up voting for her party preferences, barely looking at the names of the candidates. Her preferences were driven almost entirely by manifesto promises for funding that would help her career.

I realise that this is a little reckless, but I believe it's still better to vote than not. But it's heartbreaking. I hate it, it all feels utterly futile.

As the dust settles the more and more I am coming around to the idea of FG just standing back and allowing the rest to go for it. It would last a wet weekend. And boom we go back to FG and Labour and some stability.

Gives FG the opportunity to replace Kenny without any sort of heave and the mess that that could cause.

Tried to edit my post but managed to delete it on my phone last night, so while I won't retype that stream of tripe, I'll try again with my saliant point...

Really getting peed off with the SF's stance that they have no policy commonality with FF or FG. Yet, they're stated position before the election was not that they would not enter Government with FF or FG, just that they wouldn't do as a minority party. So which is it, is it policy differences that prevent coalition for FF or is naked opportunism? They're expressly putting party interest ahead of National Interest. If only we had a sophisticated enough electorate to see it!

I'm still hoping for FF and FG to call SF's bluff, and abstain on the inevitable vote of Adams as Taoiseach on the 10th March. Let them lead the minority Government, and make some hard calls and see how they get on. Ahead of 1918, FF and FG should put them in, to get them out!

It doesn't seem fair to critisise SF or any party for that matter for doing exactly what they said they would do during the campaign.

This needs some sort of emergency government to be set up until another election later in the year to sort it out.

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Originally Posted by Macy

. If only we had a sophisticated enough electorate to see it!

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Thank God we have you then to show the electorate the error of its ways!

FF on the radio this morning about Dail reform - classic!

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Originally Posted by backstothewall

It doesn't seem fair to critisise SF or any party for that matter for doing exactly what they said they would do during the campaign.

This needs some sort of emergency government to be set up until another election later in the year to sort it out.

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It's the hypocrisy of trying to blame policy differences now - the policy differences would still be there if they were the larger party, but they'd do business then. They're not even trying to pull the "this was our position before the election" excuse anymore - they're running with the policy difference excuse.

Besides, FF, FG, SF all had a position of no coalition with each other before the election, so why should FF and FG be the ones to "break their promise" whilst SF get to hold their line?

SF don't have the numbers to go in with either of FF or FG anyway so its a moot point - the only coalition is FF / FG - they should just get on with it now.

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Originally Posted by Macy

why should FF and FG be the ones to "break their promise" whilst SF get to hold their line?

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They shouldn't. They should go back to the people. This time the right should do what the parties on the left did the last time and agree a common 'right 2 change' style set of policies, put them to the people against the 'right 2 change' platform, and see what verdict the electorate give.

Or if Martin wants to be Taoiseach that badly all he has to do is sign up the R2C and a coalition with SF & AAA-PBP will follow. I'd recommend the former over the latter though

The pro-FF elements in the media were in full swing the last two days trying to force the notion that the country voted resoundingly to get rid of "this most unpopular of governments.

Simple thing though, FG were so unpopular that they somehow managed to bag most seats in the Dáil and were unlucky to not have a couple more. They have "slipped" to their historical level of 50-ish seats. Meanwhile Mickey Martin is being hailed as a genius for getting FF up to 40-ish.

I really hope FG stick to their guns and allow the rest to work it out. Because it could mean the destruction of the party if they don't. The gall of FF lecturing everyone is precisely why I was losing my mind on Saturday as the result rolled in.

Enda was meant to have asked the cabinet for permission to go talk to some of the smaller parties to form of government. I think he should be seen to do this in full knowledge that it will be unsuccessful; resign and then have a new leader (Coveney, Leo) in charge for GE16.2/GE17.1 That's the nightmare scenario for FF. Especially with a cataclysmic financial meltdown on the way (see China).

Out of curiosity. How do people think a 2nd election would go if Leo Varadkar, M.L. McDonald & Alan Kelly were leading their respective parties?

It all depends on how the second one come about. If FG/FF for example caused it by refusing to go into coalition with the other then that party would be ravaged.

Labour would be boosted by the lack of stability.

SF will be boosted by the whole; "sure none of them can be trusted to form a government".

I think this can be played very well by FG if they're patient. Though that patience would be tested by EK remaining as leader.

I think my scenario in my last post where EK goes unsuccessfully to other parties to form a coalition would put them in prime position to return as the largest party.

Not a chance Kelly will lead Labour, think he's pretty toxic. I could be completely wrong. McDonald leading SF would boost them as Adams performs weakly in campaigns and his past is very problematic. Varadkar is an interesting one. He'd certainly be better than Fitzgerald who I don't rate at all and performs well in the media. Could be good for them.

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Originally Posted by Mr A

Not a chance Kelly will lead Labour, think he's pretty toxic. I could be completely wrong. McDonald leading SF would boost them as Adams performs weakly in campaigns and his past is very problematic. Varadkar is an interesting one. He'd certainly be better than Fitzgerald who I don't rate at all and performs well in the media. Could be good for them.

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Him or Coveney. But Coveney comes across less smug. Plus he's Martin's constituency rival so he could directly attack him.

Kelly will almost certainly attempt to get the party leadership - and its not as if Labour has a massive parliamentary party from which to garner votes.

Is there a possibility that Burton toughs this out?

Howlin surely the obvious choice for Labour after his poll topping performance?

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Originally Posted by Mr A

Howlin surely the obvious choice for Labour after his poll topping performance?

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Was a lot of that to do with him funnelling millions of euro to projects in his own constituency though. If you Google 'Brendan Howlin Wexford projects' you'll see what I mean. €400m for the M11. €7.5m for Johnstown Castle. €20m for Wexford hospital. A new secondary school building. A refurbishment for Wexford Courthouse.

I mean god help any politician who couldn't top the poll after that.

Some of that on Howlin is a bit harsh (and I definitely wouldn't be his biggest fan) - the N11 that has and is being upgraded is part of the Belfast to Rosslare Project, and had some of the worst roads (statistics wise) in the state! Howlin may get it this time as there's feck all left!

Can't see it being Varadker for FG - Fitzgerald or Coveney. I was quite impressed with Coveney as to how he handled the flooding. Whether it's the reality or not, he comes across as a safe pair of hands (there was one debate with Barry Cowen in the campaign on the radio, and regardless of the rights or wrongs of their arguments, if you were only half listening Coveney sounded right!)

McDonald I would say is quite divisive to be honest. Again, as we saw with Burton, presentation is important, and my anecdotal evidence is she rubs people up the wrong way. Pearse Doherty probably the front runner, if it's a free stater.