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I have always felt that if Scotland went that that would would be the end of NI and the starting pistol to a UI. Now we have a double-whammy of realisation that maybe just maybe a UI is best for us all.
My primary motivation behind being pro-Scottish Independence has always been that it would led to reunification of our country.
This was an email sent by a (former?) unionist to Ian Paisley: https://twitter.com/LyraMcKee/status/746821465601900545
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl0-J3-XEAA7rYR.jpg
Some other examples of unionists declaring themselves open to a border poll:
https://twitter.com/minxycats/status/746268093379403776
https://twitter.com/mauricerkelly/st...22113926205440
https://twitter.com/belfastbarman/st...07972477403139
https://twitter.com/ihiccupalot/stat...05738524020736
http://sluggerotoole.com/2016/06/25/...ent-2749803344
http://sluggerotoole.com/2016/06/25/...ent-2750382612
Family and friends can attest that I've been predicting the break up of the United Kingdom for many many years now (not that it required any special insight or anything) and everything that I have wanted to happen now has. It's good to live in interesting times.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
I welcome both this lady's trauma and the awakening she suspects may be about to happen among young nationalist people. I wouldn't limit the latter to just that grouping either.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
I was also a little shocked by the result, but I must admit to taking a certain amount of joy out of the events of the last couple of days - tempered of course by the hardship that may flow from the decision and the sense of dejection and no doubt despair that many people in Britain must be feeling.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
It's very much a curate's egg.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Fly
It'll be very interesting to see how Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP approach the coming weeks and months.
Sturgeon all but confirmed another independence referendum on Friday morning, although I'm sure that the wiser heads in the party, hers included, didn't want to call one so soon after the last one. No doubt opinion polls will be released this week to demonstrate the public mood.
There is another possibility however. This exit from the EU will have a probable de-stabilising effect on devolution. The European Convention on Human Rights, and EU law are integrated directly into the devolution statutes in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The repeal of the Human Rights Act 1998 has, using norn iron speak, become ‘inextricably linked’ with an EU exit. Whilst Westminster may repeal the Human Rights Act or European Communities Act 1972, it would not end the incorporation of EU law or the ECHR in the devolved nations. Amendment of the relevant parts of legislation would still be required.
The UK government has stated that it will not normally legislate on a devolved matter without the consent of the devolved legislature, which requires a Legislative Consent Motion under the Sewel Convention. Following the referendum on Scottish Independence, the Sewel Convention has now been put on a statutory footing, giving it legal force. The logical follow on from that, given that the Scottish people voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, is that the Scottish Parliament may be reluctant to grant assent for a Legislative Consent Motion.
The scope for constitutional crisis is extreme!
As you were sayingQuote:
Originally Posted by The Fly
Scottish independence has nearly 60 per cent support, poll finds following Brexit result
Following the result I was in a state of absolute despair. Now though my mood has leveled somewhat. It is fairly clear that the worst case scenario is no change, the tory party torn asunder, a Labour government and the UK remaining in the EU.
On the other hand the best case scenario is, ironically enough, we get our country back. This is now about the middle class in the north, both Catholic and Protestant (I don't like those terms but they are the best we have now). Grassroots republicans would never give up on the idea of a united Ireland but middle class catholics were probably satisfied with the status quo. The middle class on both sides of the house are equally outraged by this and will end the union before putting up with this BS. Protestants i have spoken have said things like not feeling a lot more in common with people in the Republic than the English, who they are flat out referring to as a country full of racists.
An explanation by a unionist as to why he has now applied for an Irish passport (tweeted by commentator Barton Creeth): https://twitter.com/bartoncreeth/sta...65496286527488
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl53B35WEAAW5b0.jpg
SF have been banging on about Dublin producing a white paper on Irish unity for years now. It was for purely political purposes then but for me it seems like we've reached the day when any plans that need a good stiff review and audit with a view to going out for consultatuon once things calm down a bit.
Before the last referendum Scotland had a 650 page plan in place. Things are moving very fast. It would do no harm at all to have some sort of plan in place.
I agree. Southern parties need to take some collective initiative on this. Unity can't always be Sinn Féin's project as there are many unionists who will simply never warm to the idea if it's associated exclusively with Sinn Féin.Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
Brexit offers both incentive and the best opportunity in decades to further the ideal of Irish unity. It's unfortunate that those who are pro-unity aren't able to capitalise on that right away because the groundwork hasn't been done. Instead, we have Enda Kenny speaking for Scotland (rather than people, including Irish citizens, in the north of Ireland) and completely dismissing notions of a border poll without even saying that, yes, it might be a good time to start thinking about how we can make one a future reality. According to the Irish and British establishments, nothing has changed and "there's no evidence" of an increase in support for a border poll. That's an insane position; Brexit is a significant and material change in circumstances and the polls they're relying upon with regard to support for a border poll were all taken pre-referendum. Brexit will have changed the minds of a huge number of nationalists previously content with the 'status quo', as well as many "soft" unionists and perhaps a significant chunk of the north's migrant/EU national/non-UK population (which is over 100,000 people).
The border poll clause of the Good Friday Agreement de-incentivises pro-action in a way. The secretary of state has to be convinced majority-support already exists for Irish unity in the north before ever calling such a poll. Not even the Scottish indyref had such a high-burden test. The SNP were granted their referendum whilst the idea of Scottish independence had about 30 per cent support, if I remember correctly (open to correction), and they could then focus groundwork and campaigning towards a specific end-goal date. The clause in the Good Friday Agreement means intensive, focused campaigning for an Irish border poll must be done before anyone even knows a referendum will definitely occur. That uncertainty makes investing time and money in focused campaigning a bit more high-risk as it may never be called despite considerable potential effort expended. And then, once it is called, you have to do it all again; except this time against a counter-campaign opposing unity. In terms of winning a border poll, maybe it was a bit naive in hindsight to have thought the wording of that specific provision was helpful for the prospect of Irish unity, but that's what those who support the idea have to work with unfortunately.
There are many Unionists who'll never warm regardless of who its associated with. Which is just another reason for others not to associate, just as they've not done consistently since 1925.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny Invincible[/quote
Most Political parties and public opinion in the South aren't interested in Irish Unity (or taking on an extra 40% largely disaffected population as I tend to call it). But as you say, even the minority that does take the idea seriously has done little to achieve. it. A 30 year 'war' clearly seen as unwinnable well within 30 months, and since then variants of the discredited 'tick tock' theory. Nationalist vote share and turnout have been falling steadily, the Census and other major opinion surveys show many 'Nationalist' voters identifying as 'Northern Irish'. Catholic Churches supposedly providing the new young majority rarely see anyone under 50. And so on ;)Quote:
Brexit offers both incentive and the best opportunity in decades to further the ideal of Irish unity. It's unfortunate that those who are pro-unity aren't able to capitalise on that right away because the groundwork hasn't been done
We've discussed on here many times that basically nothing has been done to 'sell' a UI to Unionists. Now that Farage and co. have wrongfooted the entire British political system you have an opportunity, true. Maybe it'll be to do more than just parrot his slogans about wanting the country back?
What is it about Mayo people? While in Lyon recently we visited the tourist office to find a woman from Castlebar efficiently directing the Green and White Army to dodgy banlieue motels*, bars, cafes, WW1 historical sites and the rest. But I digress.Quote:
Instead, we have Enda Kenny speaking for Scotland (rather than people, including Irish citizens, in the north of Ireland)
* ours turned out to be round the corner from disgraced Benzema's parents' house. They refused his offer to move to a mansion in the countryside
You have it half right. There's been a huge change in one attitude which hasn't been specifically measured since the 70s (ie support for leavig Europe); it doesn't follow that change in another (leaving Britain) can be assumed before another election. About 3% in say Dundonald or Holywood voted Nationalist less than two months ago: it would be fanciful to assume that's suddenly going to surge to 50%+1...Quote:
and completely dismissing notions of a border poll without even saying that, yes, it might be a good time to start thinking about how we can make one a future reality. According to the Irish and British establishments, nothing has changed and "there's no evidence" of an increase in support for a border poll. That's an insane position
Indeed. That change needs to be tested electorally. You can't rely on mere opinion polls, they're currently near worthless over here. If the new strength of feeling is genuine you can wait a year or two until the next NI election. Maybe less if he new Tory leader fancies (probably) her chances.Quote:
Brexit is a significant and material change in circumstances and the polls they're relying upon with regard to support for a border poll were all taken pre-referendum. Brexit will have changed the minds of a huge number of nationalists previously content with the 'status quo', as well as many "soft" unionists and perhaps a significant chunk of the north's migrant/EU national/non-UK population (which is over 100,000 people)
Had an interesting chat about this to some Polish yuppies in Nice (we avoided Ma Nolan's for a restaurant round the corner). When the waiter arrived with a tray of beers, they demurred. “Could we have the wine list please?” They felt the NI Polish community might react to Brexit by moving South.
FF and FG wanted a symbolic 'win' with any likelihood of real change kicked into long grass. SF and SDLP were happy with just the symbolism.Quote:
The border poll clause of the Good Friday Agreement de-incentivises pro-action in a way...maybe it was a bit naive in hindsight to have thought the wording of that specific provision was helpful for the prospect of Irish unity, but that's what those who support the idea have to work with unfortunately
Anyway, I agree with your positive tone overall:
http://i827.photobucket.com/albums/z...psawgbcqhs.jpg
I've no doubt that's the case, but there are plenty who could be convinced by political and economic arguments.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gather round
Very little political effort has been put into it, but I think you underestimate wider public feeling, which is broadly supportive of the (albeit still vague) concept.Quote:
Most Political parties and public opinion in the South aren't interested in Irish Unity (or taking on an extra 40% largely disaffected population as I tend to call it). But as you say, even the minority that does take the idea seriously has done little to achieve. it.
As you know, I'm an agnostic atheist (lapsed or "cultural" Catholic) and a republican; church attendances aren't an indication as to feeling within any community on the unity question.Quote:
Churches supposedly providing the new young majority rarely see anyone under 50. And so on ;)
That's certainly not my slogan and I think most nationalists and/or republicans who support unity have moved on to more sophisticated, inclusive, pragmatic, nuanced and realistic arguments.Quote:
Now that Farage and co. have wrongfooted the entire British political system you have an opportunity, true. Maybe it'll be to do more than just parrot his slogans about wanting the country back?
But Dundonald or Holywood won't have to jump from 3 per cent to over 50 per cent. Any border poll would take the whole of the region into account. It's not just some/many unionists who will feel alienated by Brexit. The overwhelming majority of the nationalist community (around 40 per cent of the electorate) have been traumatised by it too. That includes many nationalists who might previously have been content with the 'status quo'. I was shell-shocked, as were my family and friends, some of whom weren't remotely fussed or overtly political before but who are now talking about Irish re-unification as a solution to their Brexit woes.Quote:
You have it half right. There's been a huge change in one attitude which hasn't been specifically measured since the 70s (ie support for leavig Europe); it doesn't follow that change in another (leaving Britain) can be assumed before another election. About 3% in say Dundonald or Holywood voted Nationalist less than two months ago: it would be fanciful to assume that's suddenly going to surge to 50%+1...
If the overwhelming majority of the nationalist community sought continued membership of the EU via Irish re-unification, in theory and in accordance with the GFA terms, only a small minority of disaffected "soft" unionists would be necessary on top of that to push the pendulum in favour of Irish unity. I think there's a lot more practical work to do than simply rely on raw numbers and I've previously made clear my reluctance to dragging a million or so unwilling unionists into a re-united Ireland, but that's the reality in theory anyway. And that's even before Scotland leaves the UK. Strategically, it may be advisable for political unionism take its head out of the sand, start engaging with the idea and tell us what sort of new Ireland it'd feel comfortable in instead of pursuing a policy of boorish intransigence (which won't win it many favours when the inevitable arrives).
Some Unionist opinion in The Irish Post today, on the present state of flux, one living in Ireland, one in Britain, one in Spain and another retired to the US - http://irishpost.co.uk/93809-2/ , all of them fairly open to the idea of unity, two of the four pre the Brexit calamity even, albeit on a less compressed timeline than this might usher in.
On that note, do you guys really think the Westminster mandarin crew and hierarchy will actually let a misguided protest vote from provincial England undo all it threatens to ? Their place in the EU, the UK itself, etc etc. I can't see it happening and surely its just a matter of how gently this is news is broken to them, we have seen democracy used to further a career & win an election, and now we will see it being circumnavigated is my opinion, perhaps without it even going back to the people. No winners here.
'Leave' campaigners are already resigning, dodging, squirming and pushing off the triggering of article 50, but is there any other alternative to actually going through with it? Can the government/parliament just ignore a referendum result, even if they don't actually want anything to do with it (as is so patently the case)? It would be audacious and there'd be a lot of ultra-unhappy Brexiters. I dread to think what the political climate - already somewhere between unpleasant and nasty - would be like if Brexiters were to realise they'd been had by a bunch of cowardly, careerist charlatans.
Farage ducking out of accountability now too is farcical. He's bragging about "victory" yet article 50 hasn't even been triggered. If he had any credibility or conviction, he'd see this mess out and continue pressing on the matter to finality and then ensure stability, but, no, he's just another con-man.
As an aside, I'd say Britain would be more than happy to be rid of responsibility for the north of Ireland.
I'd say 'the establishment' would, but for political reasons i doubt any government would want it to happen on their watch. No British PM has ever wanted to be responsible for loosing another chunk of the empire.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
For similar reasons i suspect the same applied to the Falklands/Malvinas, but despite how much of a pain in the arse they are and were to maintain, Thatcher still launched a huge military operation to take them back in the 80s. I doubt the establishment were fond of that decision but ultimately Thatcher was in charge.
WRT Ireland there are 2 big changes as a result of last week. Nationalism has been given a great argument in favour of ending partition (EU membership), and has been given a great counter to the unionist argument that ROI couldn't afford to support NI. It is no longer ROI being asked to support this. It is the EU, and I would hope Europe would be willing to put their hands in their pocket to support reunification. Of the European capitals there would at least be ample sympathy in Berlin for putting a country back together again after partition.
Indeed, we don't know the number in each group and won't reliably until the next election (given the current discredit for opinion polling). And as we've discussed, the arguments have barely begun.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny Invincible
Possibly-as above, we need the numbers. The thing is, increasing the size of the state by 40% is rather more than a vague concept, yet you're sidestepping it.Quote:
Very little political effort has been put into it, but I think you underestimate wider public feeling, which is broadly supportive of the (albeit still vague) concept
I mention it because many commentators have used a head-count of Catholics as evidence of 'tick-tock', basically because elections and large-scale surveys led by the Census aren't giving them the numbers. I think you have to accept that Church attendance gives some idea of the number of Catholics...Quote:
As you know, I'm an agnostic atheist (lapsed or "cultural" Catholic) and a republican; church attendances aren't an indication as to feeling within any community on the unity question
Apologies, I should have specified 'you (plual)'. A couple of people on this thread have used that slogan.Quote:
That's certainly not my slogan and I think most nationalists and/or republicans who support unity have moved on to more sophisticated, inclusive, pragmatic, nuanced and realistic arguments
I mentioned them as two of the largest majority Unionist towns. Many/ most others in the broadly Unionist part of NI have Nationalist support down at 10%, 20%, 30%. These places aren't suddenly going to vote for a UI. Which obviously both a) lessens the likelihood of 50%+1 and b) presents the problem of a smaller area voting clearly to the contrary evn if there is that 50%+1...Quote:
But Dundonald or Holywood won't have to jump from 3 per cent to over 50 per cent. Any border poll would take the whole of the region into account
I accept support for UI will rise among broad Nationalist and even Unionist communities. To be measured as covered above.Quote:
It's not just some/many unionists who will feel alienated by Brexit. The overwhelming majority of the nationalist community (around 40 per cent of the electorate) have been traumatised by it too. That includes many nationalists who might previously have been content with the 'status quo'. I was shell-shocked, as were my family and friends, some of whom weren't remotely fussed or overtly political before but who are now talking about Irish re-unification as a solution to their Brexit woes
It's a big if. As well as needing to sell the idea to parties and wider opinion in the South, you also need to consider other possible developments- EU may break up, RoI possibly under pressure to leave it along with Britain, the hassles of a 'hard' border etc.Quote:
If the overwhelming majority of the nationalist community sought continued membership of the EU via Irish re-unification, in theory and in accordance with the GFA terms, only a small minority of disaffected "soft" unionists would be necessary on top of that to push the pendulum in favour of Irish unity
Surely Mike Nesbitt and the UUP already have? They recommended a Remain vote and have been prepared since the vote to discuss the consequences.Quote:
Strategically, it may be advisable for political unionism take its head out of the sand, start engaging with the idea and tell us what sort of new Ireland it'd feel comfortable in instead of pursuing a policy of boorish intransigence (which won't win it many favours when the inevitable arrives)
I'm not a big fan of historical inevitability. First, a week ago it was inevitable Boris Johnson would be PM; and second, it can look like hubris.
Good posts by CTP and BTTW above, I'll reply in more detail later. I think the big change revealed by June 23 is that a mass of English voters no longer care about the UK or lost Empire (ie Falklands, Gib, even Scotland). They've always been keen to sideline if not jettison NI but the poss of future violence complicates that.
I think I agree. Little England is popular. It's hard to see where UKIP go from here but it could easily be a pivot toward English independence.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gather round
Me personally or republicanism generally, you mean? I'm not an economist, nor would I have any confidence remotely in discussing economics, so I can only leave that to others with a much greater degree of expertise and literacy in the sphere than myself; David McWilliams, for example (and as we discussed before), made a good economic case for unity in May (taking Brexit into account) and Michael Burke's analysis (in which he asserted that unity could benefit the island by €35.6 billion over eight years) has been accepted by other economists (unionist Newton Emerson, for example) as sound.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gather round
Personally, in things I've written on my blog relating to the matter or when I communicate with interested/involved others (commentator Chris Donnelly is very much on-the-ball and leads the way here, in my view), I've tried to emphasise our need to be ready to make moves on cultural symbols and institutions. Or even perhaps our need to just take the initiative, go ahead and volunteer those moves as a gesture of combined intent and good will. That said, I'm hardly someone of significant influence myself! But, essentially, nationalists/republicans have to be prepared to extend to unionists in a united Ireland what we expect for ourselves in the north at present. That all means, most likely, a new state, constitution (with emphasis on protection of rights), flag, symbolism, parity of esteem and institutions inclusive to all.
I'd like to think a progressive political case could also be made. The same-sex marriage referendum was a real statement of social progression in the south - a sure sign of total departure from any hint or notion of "Rome rule" (a fear of which has been ingrained in unionist thinking for decades) - and another may soon follow on repealing the eighth amendment in respect of the virtual ban on abortion. I think that sort of momentum could (hopefully) win over liberal unionists who are turned off by the DUP's extreme social conservatism.
So, that considered, I don't think I personally could be accused of side-stepping the matter. Or are you looking for something else/further? I'm happy to try and iron out some discussion on the matter in my albeit limited capacity, but I do acknowledge that political nationalism/republicanism in the north, as well as parties in the south, could and should do a lot more to move things forward. I certainly won't hold back criticism on that front.
As an aside, I think the good-will extended to the NI team from fans of our own team during the Euros probably also helped build a few bridges or at least convinced many northern unionists that their identity wouldn't actually be under threat in a new Ireland. It would be welcomed, protected and embraced.
Yup, to be fair to the more-sensible UUP, they've been vocal about their concerns and the potential/foreseeable implications. I should have singled out the DUP, who are the significant/majority branch of political unionism at present (according to most recent voting anyway). I saw a UUP member on 'The View' last week criticising the DUP's denialism and Danny Kinahan was doing the same since elsewhere. The DUP trying to stymie the north-south forum idea (like how they effectively blocked the presidential Rising dinner in Belfast a few months back) is just so churlish and that sort of petty, negative carry-on will only prove self-destructive further down the line.Quote:
Surely Mike Nesbitt and the UUP already have? They recommended a Remain vote and have been prepared since the vote to discuss the consequences.
Also, I thought it was funny when Arlene (who I actually admire in an odd way, despite not agreeing with her on much, in contrast to the contempt in which I hold the likes of nincompoop Edwin Poots, wind-up Gregory Campbell or haughty Nelson McCausland) tweeted to wish us congratulations after our great victory over Italy: https://twitter.com/dupleader/status/745724610067443712
The tweet was a complete surprise, but a sign that her heart isn't made of stone, after all. It also happened to be her most popular tweet ever, which just goes to show how far a little bit of respect and good will goes. An indication of its exceptional nature too. As a responding tweeter said: "your most popular tweet ever. A lesson in diversity and respect can go a long way. A bit more would be good for all."Quote:
Originally Posted by Arlene Foster
More convoluted patronising waffle with the world's worst 'cartoon' ever. And more tedious 'anecdotes'.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gather round
The second post is a bit more concilatory, but it's hard to pick out the odd fairer point Mr Rotund makes when it is padded out unnecessarily by pointless bluster which are often old points made numerous times before, some of which are completely wrong!