A "forensic" analysis of the table will tell you that so far the only result where we have bettered Bulgaria is Georgia away. They also have the advantage of at least one point secured from Italy where we may get none.
However, I think form, momentum and perception are important and we have the edge here. A bad start, regardless of who you've played, is hard to recover from. A good start is easier to build upon. Footballers are thick - they need simple incentives :)
We have Bulgaria twice, Italy twice and Cyprus away still, but these games are easier - don't ask me why - from the top of the table looking down than from the bottom looking up.
4 games give a flavour of how a group might unfold, 6 give it a more realistic look. Only 10 give it a final look.