AIL 'On Long Finger'

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30/06/2008, 4:13 PM
osarusan

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete

Probability does not factor into this issue as not all teams are equal therefore Maths logic is dead.

If you increased the LOI Premier division to 22 clubs by merging the first division this does not reduce the probability of Cork City, Bohs, Pats getting a European place as Athlone, Monaghan etc... will not challenge.

Currently Dungannon may have 15% chance of European football but an AIL would reduce that to 0%.

Are you the person on which the movie A Beautiful Mind was based?
30/06/2008, 4:16 PM
Schumi

Quote:

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

Most people? Are these the "couple of people in the Montrose" you've mentioned before? Any time it has been mentioned by any opposition fans on the web it has been ridiculed. It has no place in an official match programme for the Eircom League.

I'd be more concerned with what people who go to matches and read the programme think than away fans on the internet, personally. I like this section, it's lighthearted but interesting in its way.

Quote:

No, they actually have stuff to read that's relevant rather than read about food/films or some crap about random leagues.

I'm sure any more relevent/interesting content would be included if anyone were to submit it.
30/06/2008, 4:17 PM
pineapple stu

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete

Probability does not factor into this issue as not all teams are equal therefore Maths logic is dead.

Currently Dungannon may have 15% chance of European football but an AIL would reduce that to 0%.

Stunning. Quite stunning. You contradict yourself in such a short space of time, first of all saying maths is nonsense, and then agreeing with my maths!
30/06/2008, 4:21 PM
DmanDmythDledge

Quote:

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Taken to PM because you clearly don't know what points you're arguing.

LOL. Why don't you just post it here seeing as this is the thread where it will be discussed? You left out a good bit you send in the text to me to- no point making yourself look a bigger fool I suppose...

I'll respond to your points on this thread later when I get the chance.

Quote:

Originally Posted by osarusan

First of all theres no guarantee that there will even be european places available.

Secondly, what makes you think there will be "better teams" competing for these places? Whats goint to happen to make them better than they are now?

Yes that is true, but when discussing the pros and cons of the AIL proposals re euro places it isn't really relevant.

Linfield and Glentoran would be challenging for the euro places instead of Sligo and Bray, as it is at the moment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schumi

I'm sure any more relevent/interesting content would be included if anyone were to submit it.

Fine then, problem sorted.:)
30/06/2008, 4:22 PM
pineapple stu

Quote:

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

LOL. Why don't you just post it here seeing as this is the thread where it will be discussed? You left out a good bit you send in the text to me to- no point making yourself look a bigger fool I suppose...

(a) I left out nothing - I sent you two PMs.
(b) Nobody cares; that's why it's gone to PM.

Awaiting your reply with interest. :rolleyes:
30/06/2008, 4:24 PM
Schumi

Quote:

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

Linfield and Glentoran would be challenging for the euro places instead of Sligo and Bray, as it is at the moment.

Thus lessening the chance of a Euro place for all four. This should not be the deciding factor in whether an AIL is a good thing though. There are far more important issues than a couple of European games a season.

Quote:

Fine then, problem sorted.:)

Excellent.
30/06/2008, 4:28 PM
osarusan

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schumi

This should not be the deciding factor in whether an AIL is a good thing though. There are far more important issues than a couple of European games a season.
Excellent.

To be fair, I think the availability of European places would be a pretty major factor in teams being willing to join any AIL.
30/06/2008, 4:34 PM
Schumi

Quote:

Originally Posted by osarusan

To be fair, I think the availability of European places would be a pretty major factor in teams being willing to join any AIL.

It might be but I think that would be a bit short-sighted. Setting up an AIL would be a huge change for every club. Four clubs a year missing out on a couple of European games wouldn't be the most important change in my book.
30/06/2008, 4:38 PM
osarusan

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schumi

Four clubs a year missing out on a couple of European games wouldn't be the most important change in my book.

I hope my contributions to this thread so far will have shown I am in no way anti UCD, but a fan of one of the four clubs likely to qualify for europe might feel differently.
30/06/2008, 4:40 PM
OneRedArmy

Quote:

Originally Posted by osarusan

To be fair, I think the availability of European places would be a pretty major factor in teams being willing to join any AIL.

Its not.
How any AIL would increase clubs revenues is pretty much the only issue.
IL clubs have an awful European record and ever since people realised Shels Euro successes were built on a pillar of sand expectations around European progress have been scaled back.
30/06/2008, 4:54 PM
Schumi

Quote:

Originally Posted by osarusan

I hope my contributions to this thread so far will have shown I am in no way anti UCD, but a fan of one of the four clubs likely to qualify for europe might feel differently.

No offence taken, it's a fair point that I expected to be raised but in general fans of these clubs complain about smaller clubs holding them back because of their concerns about being left behind. I don't think this tallies with being against an AIL because of a short term loss of revenue from European games when the idea is that, long-term, they'll benefit more.
30/06/2008, 7:40 PM
SolitudeRed

Theres rumour over on the ILS thread on this same topic of a 55 page proposal/business plan for the AIL having been drawn up by the Platinum one consortium, If such a document exists yet it would be great to see it and find out what they actually have planned!
30/06/2008, 7:45 PM
GavinZac

Quote:

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Stunning. Quite stunning. You contradict yourself in such a short space of time, first of all saying maths is nonsense, and then agreeing with my maths!

He agrees with your maths but points out that its nonsense anyway - the entire point of the exercise to replace european qualifiers of Dungannon's ilk.
30/06/2008, 8:50 PM
Bald Student

How about we all agree that it'll be harder to qualify for Europe from an AIL and that this will be good for the league as a whole even though some clubs will miss out?

I think we're all actually agreed on this and most of this discussion is petty point scoring and rows over semantics.
30/06/2008, 8:52 PM
OneRedArmy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bald Student

I think we're all actually agreed on this and most of this discussion is petty point scoring and rows over semantics.

Too true. In the words of Homer J. Simpson "Welcome to the internet my friend".....
30/06/2008, 9:02 PM
Bald Student

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

Too true. In the words of Homer J. Simpson "Welcome to the internet my friend".....

I find it quite funny. I know a lot of people in this thread in the real world and we're all perfectly capable of holding an adult conversation but put them in front of a computer and they take on the temperament of an over-tired child.

I think Student Mullet's the worst. He only ever comes in to stir a bit of cac. He has about a thousand posts and I've never known him to add constructively to a discussion.
30/06/2008, 9:42 PM
pineapple stu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bald Student

How about we all agree that it'll be harder to qualify for Europe from an AIL and that this will be good for the league as a whole even though some clubs will miss out?

Quote:

Originally Posted by GavinZac

He agrees with your maths but points out that its nonsense anyway - the entire point of the exercise to replace european qualifiers of Dungannon's ilk.

I don't disagree with this (and that's rare when GZ's concerned! Although if it's the entire point, it won't get the league far), but just wait until dcfcsteve finds out you've been dissing his "maths"! :eek:
30/06/2008, 10:08 PM
GavinZac

Quote:

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Although if it's the entire point, it won't get the league far)

Of course it will! Improving the average standard of UEFA qualifying teams, and by extension the standard of premier teams in general will, one hopes, knock at least one hole in the arguments against Joe Punter giving the ELoI a fair chance.
30/06/2008, 11:36 PM
dcfcsteve

Quote:

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Let's have one last go at explaining this to you. It really is quite simple, and your view really is quite wrong. Watch also how I explain this without resorting to underline, bold or :Ds to make my point.

Since 1996/97, both the LoI and the IL have had four teams in Europe each. That's 13 seasons, including this one. We can use the number of times each team has qualified for Europe in the past 13 years as a decent estimate of the probability of them getting into Europe in the coming years. That gives us -

Code:

Club Times % prob Glentoran 12 0.92 Shels 11 0.85 Cork 10 0.77 Linfield 10 0.77 Bohs 8 0.62 Portadown 7 0.54 St Pat's 6 0.46 Cliftonville 5 0.38 Derry 4 0.31 Coleraine 4 0.31 Rovers 3 0.23 Longford 3 0.23 Drogheda 3 0.23 Glenavon 3 0.23 Crusaders 2 0.15 Omagh 2 0.15 Lisburn Dist 2 0.15 Dungannon 2 0.15 Sligo 1 0.08 Bray 1 0.08 UCD 1 0.08 Dundalk 1 0.08 Ards 1 0.08 Ballymena 1 0.08 Newry 1 0.08

This takes into account fluctuations such as you mentioned - Limerick coming from nowhere to get into Europe or Shels imploding.

The sum total of all the probabilities is 8, because there's eight Euro slots. In any given year over time, there is, for example, a 92% chance that Glentoran will be in Europe, and an 8% chance Dundalk will be in.

Now imagine we have an AIL where there's four spots going. The sum probability of the first six teams (Glentoran through Portadown) getting into Europe in any one year is 4.5. This can't be, because we only have four spots. Therefore, in order to adjust to four spots, teams will have to have their probabilities of getting into Europe reduced so that the overall sum equals four.

This, of course, is the point of the whole argument, and why your attempts to get around maths by using English are nonsense. In order for the maths to work, Glentoran's probability would reduce from 0.92 to something like 0.5 (say). That means that, instead of qualifying for Europe 92% of the time, they'd be qualifying 50% of the time.

QED.

If you want to take issue with that, I'd advise letting some international maths body know you're changing probability theory.

Pineapple - your mathematical analysis of probability overlayed onto football is valid. Sadly - it's only valid for the time that it stays on the spreadsheet you keep next to your box of Kleenex. Take it into the real world and it breaks down quicker than Amy Winehouse in Rehab.

Anyone who knows anything about football will tell you that probability - along the lines you're suggesting - is only very loosely relevant to football. It's not chess ffs.

Firstly - success in football is influenced by far too many variables that a ridiculously simple 'summary' (it doesn't even qualify as a model) such as yours doesn't even begin to address. Managerial changes, player changes, injuries to key players, Boardroom strife, weather, referreeing decisions in key games, home vs away draws in cup games etc etc etc - all these will have a greater influence upon a team's likelihood of Euro qualification in any particular season than some primary schoool analysis of how often they've made it to Europe over the past 13 years.

Secondly - as the financial ads always state, past performance is no indicator of future performance. And particularly in an extremely fluid league like the EL. Your own analysis clearly supports this. Where else could Longford be considered to have a greater chance of European qualification than Drogheda ; or Shels a greater chance than - well, pretty much anyone, than in some meaningless historical analysis that bears no reflection to actual current reality ?

Thirdly - as Pete pointed out, the maths of your analysis is shakier than Michael J Fox's tea-cup, by virtue of assuming all clubs are equal. They're not. We all know that. And the inequality fluctutes over time - making past performance even less relevant (note Shels and Drogheda again as examples). Again - the world of geek maths fails to acknowledge the hard, cold realities of life. For example, how can every club you list be assumed to have an equal chance of European qualification when they don't all have equal access to European slots in the first place (due to different divisions) ? Also - I'm sure the good people of Omagh will be delighted to hear you give them a shot at qualification for European football - almost 3 years to the day after their club went pop. Naughty, difficult reality playing havoc yet again with your beloved mathematical probabilities.

I could go on - but I suspect that the sensible on here will have more than an inkling that your assesment is so bogus that Bill and Ted are about to sue for breach of patent. You've always come across as a bean counter first and a football fan second - which is why I suspect you're struggling with the heresy of the cold fact that mathematical models often break down when transfered from spreadsheet into eveyday reality. Particularly in the illogical, multi-variable world of football. Which, after all, is a core part of why people love the whole game in the first place......

I

Quote:

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

f you want a more straightforward way of thinking of it, imagine (as I've told you before) you're in a group of 12, and you're told that in eight months' time, four of you will be shot. Now imagine a second group, with 16 people in it who will also have four of them shot in eight months' time. You're told that, if you want, you can merge together and, of the new group, only four of you will be shot. What is your choice?

For someone who think's they're only none step away from being John Forbes Nash (aka 'A Beautiful Mind') you seem peculiarly incapable of grasping one of the core caveats of mathematical analysis. Your example assumes that all participants are equal. Hence why it's meaningless. In football, teams never are. And their relative inequality fluctuates wildly over time (back to the Shels and Drogd extremes) which makes the above even more pointless as an analogy.
01/07/2008, 12:07 AM
Bald Student

Quote:

Originally Posted by dcfcsteve

Pineapple - your mathematical analysis of probability overlayed onto football is valid. Sadly - it's only valid for the time that it stays on the spreadsheet you keep next to your box of Kleenex. Take it into the real world and it breaks down quicker than Amy Winehouse in Rehab.

Anyone who knows anything about football will tell you that probability - along the lines you're suggesting - is only very loosely relevant to football. It's not chess ffs.

Firstly - success in football is influenced by far too many variables that a ridiculously simple 'summary' (it doesn't even qualify as a model) such as yours doesn't even begin to address. Managerial changes, player changes, injuries to key players, Boardroom strife, weather, referreeing decisions in key games, home vs away draws in cup games etc etc etc - all these will have a greater influence upon a team's likelihood of Euro qualification in any particular season than some primary schoool analysis of how often they've made it to Europe over the past 13 years.

Secondly - as the financial ads always state, past performance is no indicator of future performance. And particularly in an extremely fluid league like the EL. Your own analysis clearly supports this. Where else could Longford be considered to have a greater chance of European qualification than Drogheda ; or Shels a greater chance than - well, pretty much anyone, than in some meaningless historical analysis that bears no reflection to actual current reality ?

Thirdly - as Pete pointed out, the maths of your analysis is shakier than Michael J Fox's tea-cup, by virtue of assuming all clubs are equal. They're not. We all know that. And the inequality fluctutes over time - making past performance even less relevant (note Shels and Drogheda again as examples). Again - the world of geek maths fails to acknowledge the hard, cold realities of life. For example, how can every club you list be assumed to have an equal chance of European qualification when they don't all have equal access to European slots in the first place (due to different divisions) ? Also - I'm sure the good people of Omagh will be delighted to hear you give them a shot at qualification for European football - almost 3 years to the day after their club went pop. Naughty, difficult reality playing havoc yet again with your beloved mathematical probabilities.

I could go on - but I suspect that the sensible on here will have more than an inkling that your assesment is so bogus that Bill and Ted are about to sue for breach of patent. You've always come across as a bean counter first and a football fan second - which is why I suspect you're struggling with the heresy of the cold fact that mathematical models often break down when transfered from spreadsheet into eveyday reality. Particularly in the illogical, multi-variable world of football. Which, after all, is a core part of why people love the whole game in the first place......

I

For someone who think's they're only none step away from being John Forbes Nash (aka 'A Beautiful Mind') you seem peculiarly incapable of grasping one of the core caveats of mathematical analysis. Your example assumes that all participants are equal. Hence why it's meaningless. In football, teams never are. And their relative inequality fluctuates wildly over time (back to the Shels and Drogd extremes) which makes the above even more pointless as an analogy.

I think Pineapple's basic point is that it would be harder for a club to qualify for Europe in the proposed league. I think that is correct, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing is more a matter of opinion.

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