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Do you think winning a series in New Zealand is not a big deal? not a real thing per say?Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Irish fans seem to be very much we have no hope and that's my point. of course is a terrible draw Im not blind
Its football... things happen Greece won the f**king thing
Maybe you're talking at cross-purposes a bit. Pineapple means by expectations the outcome you'd be happy to bet on at evens. Us qualifying is not evens. Saying that is not to say we have no hope at all of qualfiying. It's just saying that you'd be stupid to bet on it at evens.
I actually think we have no hope of qualifying from this group, and all the belief in the world here won't change what happens on the pitch. No more than all the belief in the world here hasn't turned Aaron Connolly/Aaron Drinan/Ryan Cassidy/Danny Mandroiu into 45-goal international strikers. But I will still go to the games hoping we will win for what that's worth.
But my post was directed at samhaydenjr when he said (across two posts) -
That's fanciful stuff.Quote:
None of those - if we are to show genuine progression at this point, six points from Greece (and Gibraltar!) and four from twelve against Holland and France.
If we were making good progress I think it would actually be attainable. That's why I think that it should be a benchmark for judging Kenny's performance[...]Now if we fall short of this mark, I would still be OK with Kenny staying on if he manages to get us in via the playoffs and we perform well in the Finals
"all the belief in the world here won't change what happens on the pitch"Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
You should look into becoming a motivational speaker. !!
Or a writer of fantasy?
Id rather be gene roddenberty than Nietzsche !Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
I'd give us a 5% chance of qualifying directly. I'd give us a 70-30 chance of coming ahead of Greece and a 35-65 chance of taking 6 points off them.
We're probably about 50/50 to reach the playoffs and there's probably a 50-50 shot that there'll be one really strong team in our playoff - generally there's one good side who fails to deliver amongst the top 10 (if for example, Ukraine finished ahead of either Italy or England). So I'd give us maybe a 15% shot of actually getting through the playoffs if we get there (25% shot, less the chance we play against a really good side).
Which basically gives us a 5% shot of getting in via the groups and a 7.5% shot of getting in via the playoffs, so a 1 in 8 shot in total ;)
https://pics.me.me/so-youre-saying-t...t-23624435.pngQuote:
Originally Posted by elatedscum
1. Played 28 Won 7 Drawn 7 Lost 14.
2. Played 28 Won 7 Drawn 11 Lost 10.
Ian Baraclough has been sacked as Northern Ireland manager with record number 1 above. He was introducing young players and attempting to build for the future.
Stephen Kenny has record number 2 above but with far superior players. It's incredible that not only he hasn't been sacked but even calls for him to be sacked have been few and far between.
Last 12 games they won 3 drew 3 lost 6 as far as I can see. We?ve won 6 drawn 3 lost 3 so on form it?s fairly clear there?s a big difference.
You can't be bringing rational credible context like that to any of the rabid swivel eyed loons of the SK out brigade passinginterest, it only upsets them more. It isn't good for their hearts.Quote:
Originally Posted by passinginterest
And six of those were in the lower division in the Nations League too, so weaker opposition.
That said, it is something I thought about as well when I saw he'd been sacked
What's your point here? Are we ruling out Kenny's first 16 games? There's no denying that Baraclough wasn't doing a good job, that's the point. He clearly had to be sacked, same as Kenny. Using the building for the future excuse doesn't wash.Quote:
Originally Posted by passinginterest
Look at their squad and compare it to ours.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Fairly obvious, but I?ll spell it out a bit. One made a fairly decent start and has gone backwards.Quote:
Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA
The other had a horrible start, had overseen a massive transition and things are at least stabilising and could be considered to have improved somewhat significantly.
The stat the other day that for the first time in premier league history we don?t have a single player under 30 with more than 50 premier league appearances spells out the challenge Kenny has faced. It?s been pointed out numerous times but there?s a massive gap in the squad from players in their 30?s to players in their early 20?s. The fact that Collins is the next player likely to make 50 days it all.
And that?s not just a massive gap in age it?s a massive gap in experience. Previous managers gave little or no caps to any emerging players. Yes the options were poor, but potential backups never got a chance to even build up mid single figures levels of caps. There was zero in terms of forward planning.
"had overseen a massive transition and things are at least stabilising and could be considered to have improved somewhat significantly"Quote:
Originally Posted by passinginterest
We came 2nd last in a poor Nations league group a few weeks ago. When he said we would win it
Indeed. And the only teams he beat in 28 games were Malta, Estonia and Luxembourg in friendlies, and Lithuania (twice) and Kosovo in competitive games. There's been good draws in there too of course - the Italy draw stands out - but given he nearly took them down to League D, I guess that was a determinant. Despite your protestations, form and direction is absolutely something to consider. Their Elo has fallen by a lot more than Ireland in the same time for example (1678 -> 1540 as compared to 1729 -> 1683)Quote:
Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA
Lots of nuances, but you're bringing it down to just numerical record. (And I've said here before that if there's a break clause in Kenny's contract after the Nations League and I were in the FAI, that I'd be looking to see if there was a replacement available, so I'm not fully disagreeing with you either)
Very true. And I don’t think things are great by any means. I don’t think there could be much complaint if Kenny was replaced. But I don’t think it will happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggs246
I’m simply pointing to the differences between him and his recently sacked NI equivalent.
And if we want to really try draw out some positives, if only to wind up some people a bit more, we’ve just won our first two games EVER in the nations league. Including a convincing win against higher ranked opponents for the first time in a very long time.
There was no massive transition. That myth has been busted. Here are Kenny's first 10 team selections:Quote:
Originally Posted by passinginterest
v bulgaria:
Darren Randolph Enda Stevens Shane Duffy John Egan Matt Doherty James McCarthy Adam Idah Jeff Hendrick Conor Hourihane Callum O'Dowda Aaron Connolly
v Finland
Darren Randolph; Enda Stevens, Shane Duffy John Egan, Matt Doherty; Robbie Brady, Harry Arter, Jayson Molumby; Callum O'Dowda Aaron Connolly Adam Idah
v Slovakia
Darren Randolph; Matt Doherty, Shane Duffy, John Egan, Enda Stevens; Jeff Hendrick, James McCarthy, Conor Hourihane; Callum Robinson, David McGoldrick, James McClean.
v Wales
Darren Randolph; Matt Doherty, Kevin Long Shane Duffy Enda Stevens; Conor Hourihane, Jeff Hendrick, Jayson Molumby Shane Long Robbie Brady James McClean
v Finland
Randolph; Doherty, Duffy (c), O'Shea, Stevens; Molumby, Hourihane, Horgan, Hendrick, Connolly; Maguire.
v England
Darren Randolph; Cyrus Christie, Matt Doherty, Shane Duffy, John Egan; Conor Hourihane, Jeff Hendrick, Alan Browne; Daryl Horgan, Callum O'Dowda, Adam Idah
v Wales
Randolph, Doherty, Duffy, O'Shea, Molumby, Hendrick, Horgan, Brady, McClean, Long, Idah
v Bulgaria
Darren Randolph; Ryan Manning, Kevin Long, Shane Duffy (capt), Dara O'Shea; Conor Hourihane, Jason Knight, Robbie Brady; Ronan Curtis, Daryl Horgan, James Collins.
v Serbia
Mark Travers; Seamus Coleman, Matt Doherty, Enda Stevens, Ciaran Clark, Dara O'Shea; Alan Browne, Jayson Molumby, Josh Cullen; Callum Robinson, Aaron Connolly.
v Luxembourg
Gavin Bazunu; Seamus Coleman, Dara O'Shea, Ciaran Clark; Matt Doherty, Enda Stevens, Josh Cullen, Jason Knight, Alan Browne; Callum Robinson, James Collins.
It was practically the same squad McCarthy had that nearly qualified us for the Euros. Kenny had them and a huge list of young talent to add to them. It also has to be pointed out again that results only improved slightly when Anthony Barry came on board to change the formation, coach the players the new system, style of play etc.
Also, you seem to be forgetting that McCarthy intruduced young players. Parrott and Connolly, since then Kenny had the advantage of these breakthroughs:
Bazunu: Moved to Rochdale and Portsmouth on loan and gained a premier league move to Southampton.
Kelleher: Started to get some game time with Liverpool although very limited.
Travers: Made a breakthrough at Bournemouth to become a regular.
Dara O'Shea: Became a premier league regular with West Brom and still a regular in the championship despite major injury.
Omobamidele: Made the breakthrough at Norwich in the premier league and now a championship regular despite injury.
Collins: Became a regular with Stoke which got him a premier league move with Burnley and then Wolves.
Cullen: Got a move to Anderlecht which helped his development hugely.
Knight: Became captain and championship regular with Derby.
Molumby: Got loan moves to become a regular at championship level and now signed by West Brom.
Idah: Made a breakthrough at Norwich to play a number of premier league games.
Obefami: Became a championship regular and started banging in the goals.
If any manager had been in charge these players would have been used. And McCarthy might have given emerging players more chances if they weren't being held back for u21 duty under...... Stephen Kenny.
And Kenny has only beaten Azerbaijan, Qatar, Andorra, Scotland, Luxembourg, Lithuania and Armenia. All you're proving in that post is that both have done a rubbish job over a very similar time period. Which was my point so I think we're in agreement.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Scotland and Qatar are significantly ahead of the NI list in fairness.
Plus you've ignored the question of improved/disimproved recent form which is absolutely a factor. And the Elo shows that the North have declined a lot more than we have in the same timeframe.
Again, I don't fully disagree with the point you're making, but you do need to learn to be a bit more considered in your posts is all...
Or we could point out that Stephen Kenny has the lowest win percentage of any permanent Ireland manager since the 1960's!Quote:
Originally Posted by passinginterest
I think you're missing the point completely. I'm not saying anything about Baraclough doing a better or worse job than Kenny. I'm saying they have a very similar record. Both being abysmal. You can argue about which record is worse but that's as pointless as arguing which concrete parachute is worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
You could swap Baraclough and Kenny's name on the below snippet from an article and it's remarkably similar:
'The decision was reached at an Irish FA board meeting on Thursday night, and came after Baraclough's side collected only five points from a possible 18 from their League C group, battling relegation in a campaign in which they had targeted promotion.
Irish FA chief executive Patrick Nelson said: "Under Ian?s stewardship we have seen the introduction of new players who will wear the green jersey with pride for years to come and for this we place on record our gratitude.
Baraclough stepped up from Northern Ireland?s under-21s to replace Michael O?Neill in June 2020 but won only six of his 28 games in charge inside 90 minutes.'
He also achieved Northern Ireland's first ever Nations league win.
None of that saved him though and he was rightfully sacked. Same thing should have happened to Kenny already.
I miss the 1960’s and all the Free Love.Quote:
Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA
I'm not. When you say, for example, "Are we ruling out Kenny's first 16 games?", then the reality is that yes, more recent games will absolutely matter more when judging a manager in the here and now. That's always been the case.Quote:
Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA
You could make the point (but you haven't) that the September games suggested that our two good June results may have been impacted by end-of-season fatigue for both Scotland and Ireland (and the war and non-playing for the Ukrainians), and that struggling to beat Armenia in September is still our level.
So lots of nuance, but you just keep shouting over people, which doesn't help your argument. Which, again, I'm not entirely disagreeing with.
You clearly are. At no point in Kenny's reign has he reached any sort of minimal standard. Don't forget where we were when he took over. People can cherry pick any period they want, it's all been abysmal. The most recent Nations league we battled it out at the bottom of the table with a woeful Armenia side, that's no better than battling it out with Luxembourg and Azerbaijan in the world cup campaign before that or Bulgaria in the previous Nations league.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
We've gone from a competitive team at the top end of qualification groups to also rans under Kenny. It's not shouting over people to point out this fact or to bust some of the other myths surrounding his reign.
I clearly am what? Fully disagreeing with you? I'm not, and you can see my comments on the latest Kenny poll about whether Kenny should stay or not. And I've said before I think Mick is a better manager in general, and that Delaney is an idiot for the way he managed the appointment of the two, but we can't afford a Mick-level manager now (again, thanks Delaney)
But let's take a closer look at the comparison you keep putting out btw. Mick got three draws and a convincing defeat from the four top games (Denmark/Switzerland). Kenny got two draws and two defeats from Portugal/Serbia - very close to an (undeserved) draw in Portugal, so not a massive amount of difference there. Mick scraped past Gibraltar twice in a less convincing manner than Kenny beat Andorra. Mick drew with Georgia away and beat them unconvincingly at home - they were almost exactly the same rating as Armenia, so really just one long-distance strike in the difference. Mick took our Elo from 1704 to 1729; Kenny has taken it back down to 1683 (albeit having dropped as low 1604 after the Azerbaijan draw, which was probably the peak of the suggestions he should be sacked too)
Is it really the worlds apart that you make it out to be? I'm not so sure.
No, you're clearly missing the point.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
McCarthy's reign was poor in places but his record was played 10, won 5, drew 4 and lost 1. He was so close to qualification for the Euros. Kenny has got no where near qualification or near the top 2 in any group. You can do all the ifs, buts and maybe's you want but that's just ridiculous because you can do that any which way that suits. You can say Portugal could have won 5-1 or Serbia should have been out of sight etc but that's all pointless.
The facts are that Kenny has been in a battle to avoid last place in all the group's we've played under him while for the overwhelming majority of campaigns for the last 40 years, we've been battling to come top or battling to qualify. Whenever a manager failed to compete, they've been sacked. Kenny has had 3 groups and a failed play off on his record. No amount of excuses, myths, what ifs or untruths can cover that.
This is getting tiresome. BS, we get it.
I know it gets boring, I'm just amazed that this fella is still our manager and that there still seems to be a majority who want him to continue. But I'm probably over zealous in my arguments.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Over-zealous, but never tiresome or boring.Quote:
Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA
id rather euthanasiaQuote:
Originally Posted by youngirish
Mick McCarthy should've been kept on to see out the Euros campaign rather than give it to Kenny. We had finally started to have a bit of shape about us. And spirit. Not that Mick was the long-term answer but I feel he has much better man-management and team understanding than Kenny. I could be wrong but it would be a first ;)
we'd great shape struggling over the line against gibraltor and georgia at home, lets not mention the away game. neither are or were the answer. the sentiment around kenny would be a lot different if we didnt miss sitters in that qualification ko tie v slovakia. he'd have bought himself some good will. his time is up now as far as im concerned but mccarthys reign was grim aswell.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fixer82
Stop Right There ~ ~ Just Stop.Quote:
Originally Posted by youngirish
He would have embarrassed us at Euro 2020. Imagine the whole of Europe seeing one of his delusional, stuttering, nonsensical interviews after Germany spanked us 7-0?? “Yeah the intensity was there, and just one or two decisions went against us, we’re on the right track”.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jd2793
we've not been spanked by anyone under SK though, so not really sure how you can come to that conclusion. We've been shocking against lesser sides and OK against those in or around us like scotland etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by weldoninhio
I think Kenny could be a good technical director or someone in charge of analysis or something. He seems to know the game well and understand the modern game but just doesn’t have the personality to rouse the team or get his message across.
The exact opposite of Martin O’Neill perhaps.
The truth is though, we were at our best when Anthony Barry was involved.
So…yeah let’s just give the gig to Anthony Barry
Yes we have. Portugal and Serbia battered us. Could have lost 4 or 5 to either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jd2793
the poster said we'd lose 7-0 we've not been humiliated like that at all, yet. sorry but your anti kenny bias is playing up if you think portugal should have beaten us by 4 goals. they were poor in the two ties. serbia deserved to win in dublin, not by 5 goals though. people are going far out of there way to over exaggerate things nowQuote:
Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA