The Foot.ie bar is then:Quote:
Originally Posted by sadloserkid
Very Good 14+
Good 13
Ok 12
Lousy 11 or below
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The Foot.ie bar is then:Quote:
Originally Posted by sadloserkid
Very Good 14+
Good 13
Ok 12
Lousy 11 or below
Can we add in a bare minimum of 10?
6 from Gibraltar
3 from Greece
1 from somewhere else
Minimum of four from Greece, they were seeded below us, we shouldn't be losing to themQuote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
We need to qualify for the tournament surely for Kenny to keep his job - either via the group ( almost impossible ) or the playoffs ( possibly a route that will not be available to us )Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
If we don't qualify then I don't see his contract being renewed.
Unless the FAI find a big bag of money in a closet in Abbotstown (They cant even get a decent sponsor for the mens team) he could be in the job for a long time to come as he is affordable for them.
We could not qualify from the group and then be told it was alwayhs impossible, a bare minimum showing will suffice
Seriously?Quote:
Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid
I'm very much a 'Kenny out' man but that's a crazily high bar. Picking up any points against Netherlands and France would be decent. Even 4 losses is not automatic sacking stuff, unless they are horrendous performances and goal-fests against us.
It's much more about what we show against Greece (assuming we dismiss Gibraltaer home and away).
I hate to give Kenny fanbois a straw to grasp when we finish fourth, but Greece are a decent side we're probably no better than 50:50 to finish ahead of. Their FIFA rank, for example, is 52; ours is 49. They're no Armena, Luxembourg or whatever that it would be shocking to lose to.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
They're even above us in the Elo ratings (41st v 46th), which I always think are a bit more reliable.
I think some of the expectations in this thread are already matching the "We should go through the Nations League unbeaten" stuff we saw ahead of that campaign.
Are you really saying that two games against Greece decide his outcome? Its about all the games, if we dont perform well throughout all the games surely that's enough for you?Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
He said it's more about the games than Greece than about qualification.
That doesn't mean the games against Greece decide his outcome. It means they're more important is all
Of course they're all important. There's always a difference between a good performance and a bad performance.Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_oshea
Just in terms of victories/defeats (and not looking at the manner of a defeat), losing to Netherlands and France home and away need not be the end - they are just better than us anyway. There could be promising elements even in defeat.
It's the Greece games, an opponent similar to us in ranking, where defeats are not really going to come with the caveat of 'encouraging performance'.
Against Gibraltar, you'd assume anything other than 2 victories means it's all over instantly for Kenny.
I'm not saying I agree, I'm saying that's what I think the bar will be set at. I just don't think he will get another go. I'd keep him on if it was me - I just can't see it. If we miss out on a playoff place we will look at our two defeats at the start of the NL campaign and those will be the results to blame - it all goes back to the NL and Q being all part of the same campaign - and looking back over the campaign as a whole - he will be judged. Obviously and hopefully we get into said playoffs and the FRA / NED results will become largely irrelevant in that scenario.Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
Elo ranking?Good god.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
When's the last time we lost to top seeds in a group both home and away? It rarely happens. I think the last time was under Trap in his last campaign. Even Stan got draws against the Czech Republic and Germany. It's really sad that the focus is on Kenny scraping by so he can have another campaign to satisfy his vocal supporters. The actual focus should be on these players competing to qualify for tournaments and been given the best opportunity to do so. Despite been criticised by Kenny backers, we actually have some very good players.
Yes the ranking system that fifa decided to start using a modified version of in 2018 when they changed up how they always did the rankings.Quote:
Originally Posted by CSAD
That's the one. The FIFA rankings were nonsense and exploited as such by a few countries. Probably hard for FIFA to admit complete defeat and change over to Elo entirely.
On that basis, Holland are 150 points better than Serbia, which is a lot. France are still ahead of Portugal despite a dreadful Nations League campaign which saw them lose 100 points from second in the world. They're both 100+ points stronger than Denmark/Switzerland so let's not have any guff about how it's a comparable group to Mick's last one.
You can criticise Kenny's reign while acknowledging that this is about as tough a draw as we've ever gotten (especially when you add in a fourth seed rated above us)
Wasn't it Wales that realised if they didn't play friendlies it was more beneficial towards a better FIFA ranking.
Switzerland tooQuote:
Originally Posted by JR89
So in other words the FIFA world rankings?Quote:
Originally Posted by JR89
FIFA scrapped how they did the rankings in 2018 and started copying how ELO did the rankings because it was betterQuote:
Originally Posted by CSAD
No - FIFA now use a modified version of Elo. But they didn't go the full hog to Elo itself, so there's still scope for Elo to be more accurate.Quote:
Originally Posted by CSAD
And why is that exactly?Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Why is what exactly?
Edit - if you mean why was the old rankings system flawed (as opposed to why did FIFA not just fully roll out Elo), then wiki has a good explanation, including how teams gamed the system by realising you could lose points for winning friendlies, which is obviously daft and isn't possible under Elo.
i think he means why is ELO more accurate than FIFA's current systemQuote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Elo (not ELO - it's a person's name) has more nuance to it - it factors in whether a team is home and away, whether a team won 1-0 or 4-0 - that sort of thing. FIFA gives a bonus for winning in a penalty shoot-out which doesn't really make sense (because the expected score for the game between the two teams is then 1.25)
The new FIFA rankings make a lot more sense and correlate much closer to Elo, although still not fully. FIFA weights the Nations League lower compared to UEFA qualifiers than Elo does (60% v 75% I think), and that's reflected in the current rankings where England and France (who had bad Nations League) are lower in Elo than in FIFA, while Holland and Spain (who had good tournaments) are higher. There's a debate to be had as to which one is correct and it's not necessarily Elo, but I feel 60% is too low.
Code:# Elo FIFA
1 Brazil Brazil
2 Argentina Belgium
3 Spain Argentina
4 Holland France
5 Belgium England
6 France Italy
7 Portugal Spain
8 Italy Holland
9 Denmark Portugal
10 Germany Denmark
No it's a band. Electric light orchestra
It doesn't matter how you measure it. We're ****e, Greece are not noticably worse, and so anyone assuming we have a divine right to finish ahead of Greece is talking out of an oriface not usually associated with speech.
Gus Poyet actually looked a promising manager when he came on the scene first. ~ ~ Interesting to see how he goes with Greece ~ ~ They can be an up and down team at the best of times.Quote:
Originally Posted by John83
What about the ones saying not only do we have to finish above the Greeks but one of Holland & France too, what are they talking out of John83 ?Quote:
Originally Posted by John83
I'm not sure there's any particular word or phrase to describe that level of madness.Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
Same oriface, higher flow rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
Probably need to apply some backpressure to that flowable. Certainly others need to apply some forward pressure in the opposite direction.
Oh, I don't think they will - I don't think we're at the level where that's a serious possibility but if we were making good progress I think it would actually be attainable. That's why I think that it should be a benchmark for judging Kenny's performance. Now I could be overly pessimistic - maybe things start to really click over the next few months - a couple of players emerge in key areas and make their mark in the friendlies, putting us in a stronger position going into the qualifiers. But we shouldn't be talking about "improved performances" against Greece like we did against Scotland.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Now if we fall short of this mark, I would still be OK with Kenny staying on if he manages to get us in via the playoffs and we perform well in the Finals
But still - a "benchmark for judging Kenny's performance" or a sign that "we were making good progress" would be two feats which combined we've managed once in the last 20 years?
And if we don't manage this, you'd be ok with Kenny staying on if we qualify through the playoffs and do well in the finals?
Are we going to do this with 45-goal Aaron Connolly up front?
Would you say that Greece are on the same level as Scotland? in 12 months time, if we compare the performances and results against both sides, how will the reflect on the manager?
Why are we throwing in the towel? This isn't us. I know the group is awful a d o know the players arnt world class but jesus we need to have more belief or i can guarantee u we won't qualify.
The only times we've ever qualified the draws been tough. Anytime we get a relatively easy one we crash and burn
Who's throwing in the towel?
Don't mix up checking absurd optimism with throwing in the towel.
This isn't some magic fairy world where belief alone will get you through the group.
Scotland are a bit better than Greece, though not all that much. Scotland finished the Nations League 6 points clear of us.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Most of the people on this forum have given up on automatic qualificationQuote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Its not magic if u don't believe in yourself your done before a ball is kicked
Look at the rugby v new zealand we lost games before the whistle went until Joe schmitt gave us the belief to beat them. Now we routinely beat them!
Fortunately I'm not kicking the ball in this case, so what I believe is utterly irrelevant.
And Ireland are routinely ranked top five in rugby - it says a lot about how little that game is played that we couldn't beat the world number one for decades. And in real competition (World Cup), we still can't beat them or get past the quarter-finals despite all the belief the players may have.
So pointing out that the suggestion that progress means "we should beat Greece home and away and take four points off France/Holland or if we fail to do that then we should qualify through the play-offs and perform well at the finals" is utter gibberish isn't throwing in the towel.
There's a shade in between black and white here.