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http://www.castrolfootball.com/calcu...roup_predictor
This castrol predictor generator thing is rather confusing. Sees our qualification chances at a healthy 73.6%. Russias slightly more at 80%. What got me was somehow Slovakia were at 6.6% with the predictor determining they had a better chance of finishing 5th than 2nd despite currently being joint top. How does that work!
Not sure if this is better served in here or the rankings thread, but I need advice; is the seedings for the play-off in Nov decided by the FIFA ranking, and if so I'd presume it will be at the conclusion all the qualifying groups yes?
i looked into this last month and posted something in the rankings thread:
http://foot.ie/threads/152401-Rankin...=1#post1500239
Has been mentioned in an unrelated thread, but John Toshack has been announced as the new Macedonia manager: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2...edonia-manager
Hopefully, he can do some damage to Russia and Slovakia in the remaining fixtures.
Most likely, he'll do damage to Macedonia :)
Any new manager usually improves the performance of a team, think I read somewhere that it takes 6 games before the team reverts to type, so I'm glad we have the two games against them out of the way. I'd still fancy Russia and Slovakia to take full points off them, but now Macedonia have a better chance of causing an upset than before.
Just had a look through the other groups in case we end up in the play-offs. If we do, it's looking likely the following teams in bold will join us in the draw (current FIFA ranking in brackets):
A) Turkey (24)/Belgium (37):
Turkey are currently second in Group A on 13 points, a point ahead of Belgium on 12, with a game in hand away to Austria, which they should probably win to leave them on 16. Germany are already qualified. Both Turkey and Belgium still have to play Germany, although Turkey's benefit is in the fact that they'll have home advantage in their game. You'd expect each team's other fixtures (home games against Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, respectively) should bring 3 points for each, so I'm finding it hard to see how Belgium could overtake Turkey at this point. Drawing with Azerbaijan away in the last round of games dealt their hopes a heavy blow. Any hope for Belgium would be in Austria upsetting Turkey on Tuesday, I think, but even then Turkey should be able to do enough against Azerbaijan at home and no worse than Belgium against Germany with the added home advantage to secure second.
B) Russia (13)/Ireland (31)/Slovakia (26)
C) Serbia (29)/NI (59)/Slovenia (23)/Estonia (86):
Italy would pretty much have to lose their three remaining games and Serbia win their three in order for Italy to fail to finish first and qualify automatically. That's not going to happen, so the race for second in Group C is between Serbia, NI and Slovenia really with Estonia having an outside chance. Slovenia are currently second on 11 points, but Serbia are on the same total with a home game in hand against the Faroes. That should put them on 14. Slovenia also have to play Italy away and Serbia at home. I can see them getting a point at best from those games which would see them finish the group on 12; nowhere near enough for second, if even third. Serbia have Italy at home from which I think they'll take a point and, as I said, Slovenia away, from which I think they'll also take a point, if not a win. For what it's worth, Slovenia lost at home to Estonia in the last round of games. That would have Serbia finishing on either 16 or 18 points. NI still have to play Estonia twice and Italy away once. I can't see them getting anything from Italy but if they were to beat Estonia twice, they'd tally 15 points in total; probably enough for third. That would only be enough for them to finish second if Serbia tally a lower number of points as Serbia's head-to-head is superior due to them having beaten NI twice already. I can't see Serbia getting any lower than 15 though, to be honest, even if they do lose to Italy; they'd have to lose to both Italy at home and Slovenia away for that to happen. Estonia, however, can finish on 16 points if they beat NI in their remaining two games, but I'm not sure they have that in them. They're a bit unpredictable, but I think we can rule them out.
D) Bosnia & Herzegovina (39)/Romania (54)/Belarus (41):
Group D is hard to call. France lead by 3 points. Bosnia & Herzegovina are in second on 13, Belarus in third on 12 with one game extra played and Romania in fourth with 11. France should win the group as they have Albania and Bosnia at home with an away game against Romania. At worst, they should pick up 5 or 7 points from those and win the group with at least 21 points, if not 23 or even 25. Belarus' two remaining fixtures are away to both Bosnia and Romania so I don't really see much hope for them. I think Bosnia will pip second. I think they'll beat Belarus at home just as they beat them 2-0 away in the last round of games. They then play Luxembourg, which should be another three points, and their final game is away to France but I think 6 more points from their final three should be enough for them to qualify in second position on 19 points. Romania play France at home, Belarus at home and Albania away, from which I can see them picking up 6 or 7 points, but that would give them 18 at best, which I don't think will be enough.
E) Sweden (18)/Hungary (45):
Holland have more or less won this group winning seven games out of seven so far. I can't see them losing against Finland or Moldova, which is what would have to happen for them to finish anywhere other than first. Second place should be Sweden's although Hungary beating them at home in the last round of games has given them an opportunity to sneak it. Both teams now sit on 15 although Sweden have an advantage of a game in hand. Sweden have San Marino away, Finland away and Holland at home remaining. I think they should be able to manage, at worst, 5 or 6 points, if not 7, from these three fixtures which should carry them through with a total of 20 or 21 points. Hungary have two games left; Moldova away and Finland at home. They should pick up 4 or 6 points from these. They've already beaten Finland 2-1 away. Essentially, I think Finland hold the key to deciding who will qualify for the play-offs from this group, but if Hungary and Sweden do both finish level on 21 points, Sweden will pip them to second on head-to-head as they beat them 2-0 at home last September, even though Hungary beat Sweden 2-1 in Budapest during the last round of matches. I'd be somewhere between mildly nervous and cautiously optimistic if I was a Sweden fan.
F) Greece (14)/Croatia (10)/Israel (32):
Group F is very much open. Greece, currently on 17 points, lead Croatia by a point and Israel in third place by 4 points. Israel have also played a game more than both Greece and Croatia, so the top two places should be between Greece and Croatia really. I think Croatia will have to settle for the play-offs as they have the tougher run-in, in my opinion. They play Israel at home, which you'd expect they should win if they play to their capabilities. They also face Latvia in the final game at home. However, before that is the real decider. Greece and Croatia still have to play one another in Athens. Greece also still have to play Georgia and Latvia away but you'd expect them to pick up 6 points from those games. They'll have home advantage when Croatia visit and a point should be enough to see them take top position with 24 points, resigning Croatia to the play-offs on 23.
G) Montenegro (19)/Switzerland (30):
England look like they have this group wrapped up. They currently sit top on 14 and should beat Wales at home and manage a draw at least against Montenegro in Podgorica to top the group with at least 18 points, if not 20. Montenegro sit on 11 in second at present with Switzerland in third on 5 with a game in hand. I'm not sure about Montenegro. I think they're punching above their weight and maybe the result against Wales on Friday was a bit of a reality check. Nevertheless, they have two games left; one at home to England and the other away to Switzerland. I think 2 points from those games would be optimistic; maybe realistic. Difficult to see them getting any more than that. That would leave them finishing on 13 points. Switzerland have three games to go; Bulgaria at home, Wales away and Montenegro at home. To finish second, I reckon they'll have to win those three. It's possible as they have Bulgaria and Montenegro at home, but I'm not sure. It would be a big ask. Of course, it's possible that Montenegro will pick up no further points as they have two very difficult fixtures. If that were to happen, 11 or 12 points should suffice for Switzerland. Still, I think Montenegro should just about hold on.
H) Portugal (8)/Norway (12)/Denmark (21):
Portugal lead Group H with 13 points due to their superior head-to-head record over Norway in second, also on 13 points. Denmark are third on 10 points with a game in hand, so everything still to play for in this group. Second place will be very close. Denmark play Norway at home on Tuesday, then play Cyprus away and Portugal at home in the final round of games. I think they'll pick up a further 4 or 5 points at most giving them a final tally of 14 or 15. Norway should beat Cyprus in their final game to give them 16 in total at least. As I've said, I think their game with Denmark will probably end in a draw though giving them 17 overall, but that game is the decider for second place really. Portugal should beat Iceland at home and should do no worse than Norway away to Denmark in their final game so should win that group with at least 17, if not 19. Denmark will be the key in deciding how this group finishes up. If Denmark manage to beat Norway and both finish on 16, Denmark would actually finish second with a superior head-to-head over Norway. Norway can write Denmark off at their peril.
I) Czech Republic (42):
Spain more-or-less need a point against Liechtenstein at home to guarantee winning the group. Second place should go to the Czechs. They're on 10 points, 5 ahead of Scotland, the only other team in that group with an extremely slim chance of pipping the Czechs to second position really. Scotland have a game in hand, however, at home to Lithuania. Winning that would leave Scotland 2 points behind the Czechs with two games to play. Scotland's final two are against Liechtenstein in Vaduz and Spain in Alicante. I think Scotland will end up on a maximum of 11 points. The Czechs play Spain at home and Lithuania away. They should at least beat Lithuania away and finish on 13 points, although if they were to finish level with Scotland on 11 after a draw with Lithuania and a loss to Spain, the Czechs' superior head-to-head over Scotland would see them progress to the play-offs. Lithuania did beat the Czechs in Olomouc, mind, so who knows? Still think the Czechs should take second with 13 at least, or 14 if they can get a draw at home against Spain. They'd really have to implode to through second place away.
Of course, one of those teams I've highlighted in the post above will qualify automatically as best runner-up. At the minute, Norway are leading the runners-up table, but there are a few others in the running now that Sweden have tripped up against Hungary. I can't see us taking it though if we do end up finishing second. We'd have to win in Moscow really, but then that would probably ensure us first position in our group anyway if that does happen, unless we beat Russia and lost to Andorra with that result being eliminated from our final tally for the purposes of ranking the runners-up.
I'm estimating that those I feel will finish second will pick up the following number of points in total, the right figure being an optimistic maximum in my opinion:
A) Turkey: 19/20 (should equate as 13/14 in the runners-up table, or 16/17 if Azerbaijan finish bottom as Azerbaijan beat Turkey 1-0 last October)
B) Ireland: 20/21 (should equate as 14/15)
C) Serbia: 16/18 (should equate as 10/12)
D) Bosnia: 19/20 (should equate as 13/14)
E) Sweden: 20/21 (should equate as 14/15)
F) Croatia: 21/23 (should equate as 15/17)
G) Montenegro: 12/13
H) Norway: 16/17
I) Czech Republic: 13/14
I'm thinking whoever finishes second in either Group F or Group H then, be it Croatia/Greece or Norway/Denmark, will now take the best runner-up slot, or possibly Turkey, depending on whether their loss against Azerbaijan is eliminated from the runners-up standings by virtue of Azerbaijan finishing in last place below Kazakhstan in Group A. There's a reasonable chance that could happen as those two still have to play one another and the previous game between them was Kazakhstan's only win in the group so far. Azerbaijan will have home advantage, however, and are already 1 point ahead. Regardless, I still don't think we'd have enough to outdo Croatia/Greece or Norway/Denmark anyway.
If we go into the play-offs, we wouldn't be seeded as the rankings are presently, but I'd be hopeful that a result of some sort in Moscow and two wins in our final game as well as the draw against the higher-ranked Slovakia might help us there. Maybe a rankings expert could offer further clarification?
At present the FIFA rankings for seeding purposes would be as follows if the teams I've predicted to qualify for the play-offs do so (or do they use UEFA rankings for seeding purposes, or would that even make a difference?):
- Croatia (10)
- Norway (12)
- Sweden (18)
- Montenegro (19)
- Turkey (24)
- Serbia (29)
- Ireland (31)
- Bosnia (39)
- Czech Republic (42)
Assuming, they use FIFA rankings, or UEFA rankings would have the same effect anyway, we'd be unseeded in the bottom four even if one of Croatia, Norway or Turkey were to qualify automatically as best runner-up.
And I thought my Group B outcomes post was comprehensive. Great work Danny. I'm still confident, and I'm confident of beating any one of those in the playoffs.
They use the UEFA rankings btw Danny, but they're similar enough.
Cheers. Found an unofficial/provisional version here. They're updated there to take into account the last round of games on Friday night.Quote:
Originally Posted by AlaskaFox
The teams I think will qualify for the play-offs would be ranked by UEFA as follows at the minute then:
Croatia (6)
Sweden (11)
Turkey (14)
Serbia (15)
Czech Republic (16)
Ireland (18)
Norway (19)
Bosnia (21)
Montenegro (29)
It turns the list on its head for some teams, but we'd still remain in the bottom unseeded four at present. Of course, it is all very much subject to change.
Great work there Danny, you're a machine.
I echo the sentiment. You still with the missus then Dan? :)
Sh*t! Cheers for reminding me! :pQuote:
Originally Posted by BonnieShels
What reminding you that you aren't still with her ;)
No offense DI but you have given nearly half of the European nations there as possible candidates for runners up as potential teams....well I suppose you broke it down further down the line.
But those stats, coming from my work area and putting them into context of the groups and who will/wont qualify are a load of ....:)
The teams I mention from each group are those with any sort of chance of qualifying for the play-offs, I suppose, with the exception of those already ruled out or those with such a minuscule chance that it's barely worth considering. I mention the likes of Estonia for that reason; they have a slim chance, but a chance nonetheless. I do as much as rule them out in my analysis, however, as I don't see them picking up an unlikely 6 points against NI. The ones I've highlighted in bold are those I'd be pretty confident will actually make the play-offs based on how I predict the remaining results of all those teams ending up. I had to mention the others to explain why I think those particular teams will end up in the play-offs.Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_oshea
Excellent work DI.
Excellent write up Danny.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
To add (as I keep an extra eye on this group) I was very surprised Hungary beat Sweden given Sweden's excellent recent record against the Hungarians and the fact Hungary were missing a couple of their better players. The game showed Sweden's weakness is certainly in the full back positions.
Finland have had a change in management (following the defeat to Sweden) and should be buoyed by their big win against Moldova. If they could beat the Dutch on Tuesday, it would certainly make things interesting.
Did Geysir remind you that he told you Hungary would beat Sweden?! :)
DI great work, I just cant really read any of it until after tuesday, and then I might not read it at all.;(
BTW, I fancied Hungary to beat Sweden, contradicting the aforementioned experts who en masse went like lemmings for Sweden.
But I am reluctant to forecast the outcome in Group H. Portugal have come on a lot since the WC, they're the best team in that group and you wouldn't want them in the play offs. So I'd say 2nd place depends a lot on the welly cruncher in Copenhagen between Norway and Denmark.
Ok. So are we going to at least the play-offs?Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir