Greece V Republic of Ireland - Friday, 16th June 2023 - Euro 2024 Qualifier

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Originally Posted by SkStu

Because they want him sacked if he doesnt win. Or the case against him to be strengthened. A draw in Greece would be objectively considered a good result (their recent form, heat/hostility, etc). With SK's baggage, that kind if thinking goes out the window. It probably does dent our qualification hopes though - which were already extremely slim. When you draw France as the second seeds in a group you are up against it. Lets be real, like.

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I think we should be getting a result in Greece and don't want Kenny getting sacked if we don't. A draw isn't necessarily a bad result but as far as getting out of the group is concerned, it's a bad result. No one is really giving us much of a chance of getting out of the group(perhaps including myself) but, if we're talking about progression under SK/the style of football we're playing etc; then surely we should be expecting a result in Greece 3x years later? If not, we're setting the bar of progression extremely low. But that's just my opinion and it's all subjective at the end of the day.

Yeah, as I said earlier i think a win would be an excellent result and it is in the realm of what should be considered achievable. I think Pineapple shared the 35% chance of winning away and that seems about right odds to me but you'd want to see Kenny hitting those percentages from time to time - and this would be the perfect time to do it for all the good reasons you and others mentioned. In fairness, a draw would be a good result (but does almost completely dampen most hopes of qualification).

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Originally Posted by Razors left peg

I do think if we perform like we did against France we CAN get 4 points from both the Dutch and the Greeks. I didnt say we absolutely should get those results.

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I know you didn't say we should get those results - but you did say we can get those results. That's what I think is ambitious. We could get any one of them, sure. But not all four.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

I know you didn't say we should get those results - but you did say we can get those results. That's what I think is ambitious. We could get any one of them, sure. But not all four.

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It shows the task that ahead of us, and those that are saying its qualification or bust for Kenny might need to reign it in a little.

But you're the one saying we "CAN get 4 points from both the Dutch and the Greeks". Why are you deflecting onto others?

I completely agree it's not qualification or bust (though a defeat on Friday would be a bad result)

I dont think what Im saying is that complicated to be honest. I believe we can get 4 points from both Holland and Greece. The football fan in me that is eternally optimistic thinks we can.... but thats a far cry from expecting that we will get those points. I believe we are on an upward trajectory with the talent in the squad, so if everything clicks right it'll be amazing.

Do I think we will get the points necessary to qualify? Probably not, but if we perform well and dont quite do enough I think I'll be relatively happy.

You know very well that we could play well and go close to qualifying, and it wouldnt be enough for some who want Kenny out no matter what.

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Originally Posted by Razors left peg

It shows the task that ahead of us, and those that are saying its qualification or bust for Kenny might need to reign it in a little.

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'Qualification or bust' might be harsh, because we could beat Greece home and away, and win one of the Holland games, and still fail to qualify. It'd be very harsh to get rid of Kenny in that scenario. But being out of contention with games to spare - again - would see a lot of fans run out of patience. Anything less than a win on Friday makes that a strong probability.

It's a tough one, because ordinarily, a point away to a team like Greece would be a creditable result, like the Montenegro, Bulgaria and Slovakia games under Trap. But we need big results just to stay alive in this campaign.

Kenny would be given a free pass if it was his first campaign, or he had more 'credit in the bank.' Whatever about 2020 and the long winless/goalless runs, the Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, and Armenia results still hang heavily over his tenure, and I think he needs to pull out a pretty spectacular run of results to justify getting his contract renewed.

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Originally Posted by Supreme feet

'Qualification or bust' might be harsh, because we could beat Greece home and away, and win one of the Holland games, and still fail to qualify. It'd be very harsh to get rid of Kenny in that scenario. But being out of contention with games to spare - again - would see a lot of fans run out of patience. Anything less than a win on Friday makes that a strong probability.

It's a tough one, because ordinarily, a point away to a team like Greece would be a creditable result, like the Montenegro, Bulgaria and Slovakia games under Trap. But we need big results just to stay alive in this campaign.

Kenny would be given a free pass if it was his first campaign, or he had more 'credit in the bank.' Whatever about 2020 and the long winless/goalless runs, the Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, and Armenia results still hang heavily over his tenure, and I think he needs to pull out a pretty spectacular run of results to justify getting his contract renewed.

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Its hard to argue against any of that, but we still have to be realistic and take each group on its merits.

This is still a group of a lot of lads in their early 20s, and a potential 18 year old superstar up front. We cant just suddenly demand that an away game in Greece is a must win because we are sick of underachievement in recent years. We are a work in progress, and if that work improves through the group we have to take stock at the end. If we lose 3 nil on Friday that is a totally different conversation obviously. If we play like we did against France we will give ourselves every change of getting a win against Greece, but I still dont think we are in any position to be saying Friday is a must win.

I don't think Kenny is fit for the job, but demanding he qualify in this group is not realistic. Hoping a few results go right and we qualify, sure; expecting a good go of it, sure; but expecting qualification is cloud cuckoo land stuff. Reading demands that we win in Greece, I'm reminded of the English press going mental any time they fail to win a qualifier. They're top seeds, surely they should win every game, right?

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Originally Posted by Razors left peg

I dont think what Im saying is that complicated to be honest. I believe we can get 4 points from both Holland and Greece. The football fan in me that is eternally optimistic thinks we can....

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Ok - but I don't think what I'm saying is that complicated either.

I think that's needlessly optimistic

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Ok - but I don't think what I'm saying is that complicated either.

I think that's needlessly optimistic

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Cool, you've found a catch phrase that you like so much you want to say it over and over. Happy for you!

I don't think qualifying is going to make or break Kenny, nor should it in my opinion. It's going to be the performances and results against Greece and Gibraltar. If we get a draw in Greece and draw with them again in Dublin, he's gone. I reckon Kenny also knows this and the majority of fans would agree. The one great performance then not backing it up against the sides below or on a par to us isn't going to cut it for much longer.

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Originally Posted by LurcherLover

I don't think qualifying is going to make or break Kenny, nor should it in my opinion. It's going to be the performances and results against Greece and Gibraltar. If we get a draw in Greece and draw with them again in Dublin, he's gone. I reckon Kenny also knows this and the majority of fans would agree. The one great performance then not backing it up against the sides below or on a par to us isn't going to cut it for much longer.

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That's probably fair. It's a tricky group in a way in that we're expected to get nothing from two teams, to get six points from one team, and then everything comes down to two games. We could play very well in both games against Greece, but get done by a refereeing decision out there and lose for example. But then you've covered that in saying it's the "performances and results" against Greece and Gibraltar, which is fair. Still, eight points from a campaign would be awful - our worst since 1986, when there wasn't even a Gibraltar - and it'd be hard to get behind that. A lethargic defeat like Scotland away and you may start actively hunting for a successor.

That said, I'm hopeful we can get a result here. I'm in the pre-match stage where I can't see how we're going to lose, even though I know there's myriad ways :p

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Originally Posted by Razors left peg

Cool, you've found a catch phrase that you like so much you want to say it over and over. Happy for you!

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I'm just challenging your view though. It's what happens on a discussion forum. I think it was you who suggested we could go through the last Nations League campaign unbeaten - that was similarly optimistic. I don't see the benefits of that sort of optimism. I don't see why you don't like that being pointed out.

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Originally Posted by John83

I don't think Kenny is fit for the job, but demanding he qualify in this group is not realistic. Hoping a few results go right and we qualify, sure; expecting a good go of it, sure; but expecting qualification is cloud cuckoo land stuff. Reading demands that we win in Greece, I'm reminded of the English press going mental any time they fail to win a qualifier. They're top seeds, surely they should win every game, right?

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This is all 100%
Not sure anyone would faint if we didn't qualify though
I think Kenny has v little credit in the bank. So he will go if we don't come very very close at least to qualification.

My own philosophy is that if this group starts going pear shaped. Sack him so the replacement has time and competitive games to prepare for a possible play off ( via NL with luck)

We need to stay alive in the group as long as possible.
A defeat almost certainly produces that prospect. A draw does not.

12 home matches for Greece since 2020. 1 defeat to Spain. Undefeated in NL vs Moldova, Kosovo (D), Slovenia (D), and in WCQ Georgia (D), Sweden (w), Kosovo(D), Cyprus (F), then the NL again vs Cyprus (w), Kosovo (W), the North (w) & Lithuania (F).
In that timeframe, they've drawn in Spain (WC), but lost in Austria (F), Sweden, Montenegro (F) and Cyprus. Most impressive on the road win was either in Tblisi in the WCQ or in Belfast in the NL, while they won a friendly in Romania.

A performance with the type of determination shown against France would suggest that we shouldn't lose, but we need to show more attacking prowess.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

I'm just challenging your view though. It's what happens on a discussion forum. I think it was you who suggested we could go through the last Nations League campaign unbeaten - that was similarly optimistic. I don't see the benefits of that sort of optimism. I don't see why you don't like that being pointed out.

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Happy for my views to be challenged, which is why Ive explained why I said we CAN win 4 points from each of Greece and Holland but I also dont think its probable that we will.

I also did say it was possible we could go though the Nations League unbeaten, and we performed badly in some games. The fact that we didnt win the group seems to be more ammo for those that want Kenny gone no matter what, but I believe I've also said multiple times that the Nations League is a group of nations of a similar level to us and so we dont have the right to expect to win every game.

I dont see anything wrong with being optimistic. Im generally fairly optimistic in life in general. If you go through your own life being pessimistic that is your own choice, but as a football fan of a nation who will have ups and downs Im not sure Id see the point in watching if there wasnt some optimism that things will get better.

There are ups?

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Originally Posted by Razors left peg

Happy for my views to be challenged, which is why Ive explained why I said we CAN win 4 points from each of Greece and Holland but I also dont think its probable that we will.

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All you've said is if we play as well as France then we can get four points against both Holland and Greece. But we didn't get a shot on target until injury time against France for example. The Greece game will be a very different game also. And we'd have to perform consistently over four games, which we haven't really shown any sign of so far (the Nations League being a good example)

There's optimism and there's - well, needless optimism I think. And the opposite of needless optimism isn't pessimism; it's just realism.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

All you've said is if we play as well as France then we can get four points against both Holland and Greece. But we didn't get a shot on target until injury time against France for example. The Greece game will be a very different game also. And we'd have to perform consistently over four games, which we haven't really shown any sign of so far (the Nations League being a good example)

There's optimism and there's - well, needless optimism I think. And the opposite of needless optimism isn't pessimism; it's just realism.

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We did play well against France, a team that had just been in a World cup final. The fact that we were able to even compete with them to me was a good performance, as I had feared a hammering. That level of performance against teams that are not as good as France can generate more chances and higher possibility of us getting a good result.

Again... I did say that I dont think its probable that we will get those results needed to qualify. So again call it needless optimism if you want, I just call it being a football fan.

I've been incredibly unimpressed with Gus Poyet as a manager whenever I've seen his teams play and hope that Kenny can get the better of him.

I think Kenny should probably be gone by now, or soon, but I would never in a million years want him replaced by Poyet.

And I think this presents us with a big chance. Poyet is absolutely no managerial genius. A hot-headed, tempermental spoofer, in my opinion.

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Originally Posted by Razors left peg

Ronan and Manning are not even in squad.... but you knew that!

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I Said everyone Is avail, o dowda on the left too Good option AND mcgrath Is Good 4 the Eire

Ogbene being out for these games is a real sickener. And June internationals can be weird coming after the club season end. A win in Greece would be fantastic... I think a draw is most likely though, given our historical results (pre-Kenny included) in away games.

Hoping Johnston gets a run out against Gib at least, but wouldn't mind him getting 20-30 mins against Greece either. I'm usually optimistic/naive but am nervous going into these games.. it's make or break time for Kenny. Group could be over for us by this time next week (and Kenny likely pushed out) especially if we lose to Greece, or we could be in dreamland with the obvious team progress shown against France being maintained (wins against Greece and Gib). That's a lot to hang on two matches, but they are pivotal for the near term future of this team.

did some checking on away wins in European Championship qualifiers - the link for the goals below is worth watching if only for Niall Quinn's superb link up play

I know that stat is for the euros
But to be fair to MON he got us wins we could only dream of. I assume Austria were higher then us in the rank ing? Not to mention beating Italy in france

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Originally Posted by Diggs246

I know that stat is for the euros
But to be fair to MON he got us wins we could only dream of. I assume Austria were higher then us in the rank ing? Not to mention beating Italy in france

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Yes, they were 30th, we were 33rd, it was our first away win against higher ranked opposition since beating Lithuania in September 1997, and Wales were 13th when we beat them in Cardiff, we were 34th
We have 12 competitive wins against higher ranked opposition ever, O'Neill has five of them (Germany, Bosnia, Italy, Austria, and Wales) and is the only manager to win more than one away from home.

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Originally Posted by Diggs246

I know that stat is for the euros
But to be fair to MON he got us wins we could only dream of. I assume Austria were higher then us in the rank ing? Not to mention beating Italy in france

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Austria were and think it was our first big win away from home in qualifiers in 30 years. Same campaign we went away and beat Wales. We should have topped the group that campaign and think we were top at the mid way point but **** the bed at home losing to Serbia and drawing with Austria and Wales.

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Originally Posted by JR89

Austria were and think it was our first big win away from home in qualifiers in 30 years. Same campaign we went away and beat Wales. We should have topped the group that campaign and think we were top at the mid way point but **** the bed at home losing to Serbia and drawing with Austria and Wales.

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i've edited my post above. The myth is that that Austria game was the first away win against decent opposition since beating Scotland in 1987, but it was Lithuania, who were 42nd, when we beat them in 1997, when we were ranked 55th.
Coleman's injury at home against Wales derailed that campaign. I'm convinced we would have topped that group with him in the side.

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

We have 12 competitive wins against higher ranked opposition ever, O'Neill has five of them (Germany, Bosnia, Italy, Austria, and Wales) and is the only manager to win more than one away from home.

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That's mad. I presume Jack has another chunk? Though we were very high-ranked for much of his time so hard to know. Scotland away in 87 of course. (But I guess not Bulgaria at home in the same campaign? They were higher seeds than us, but maybe not higher ranked when we met) England in Euro 88. Spain in Italia 90 qualifying surely? Italy in USA 94. (Hungary in Italia 90 qualifying would probably count for any other manager)

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

That's mad. I presume Jack has another chunk? Though we were very high-ranked for much of his time so hard to know. Scotland away in 87 of course. (But I guess not Bulgaria at home in the same campaign? They were higher seeds than us, but maybe not higher ranked when we met) England in Euro 88. Spain in Italia 90 qualifying surely? Italy in USA 94. (Hungary in Italia 90 qualifying would probably count for any other manager)

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From memory only I'm not sure how many Jack Charlton would have

We drew away to Hungary and Northern Ireland and lost in Spain in Italia 90 qualifying.

Drew with England and Poland for Euro 92.

Think we drew with Denmark and Spain in US 94 qualifiers.

Euro 96 we lost 3-0 in Portugal and was it 3-1 in Austria?

Edit: Just seen it wasn't just away games... or qualifiers. Ignore me.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

That's mad. I presume Jack has another chunk? Though we were very high-ranked for much of his time so hard to know. Scotland away in 87 of course. (But I guess not Bulgaria at home in the same campaign? They were higher seeds than us, but maybe not higher ranked when we met) England in Euro 88. Spain in Italia 90 qualifying surely? Italy in USA 94. (Hungary in Italia 90 qualifying would probably count for any other manager)

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Rankings weren't introduced by FIFA until 1993, so technically none of those count! Italy were the first higher ranked side beaten in a competitive international. Mick beat Lithuania, Croatia, Yugoslavia, and the Netherlands. Staunton beat Slovakia, the five games under O'Neill I mentioned above, and Kenny's win against Scotland last June makes the 12.

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

Rankings weren't introduced by FIFA until 1993, so technically none of those count!

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Ah! That would certainly explain it. Eloratings.net has retrospective rankings for all matches which would add the ones I thought, including Bulgaria in 1987 but not Hungary in 1989.

mcDonnell had a good piece on Kenny over the past 24 hours. Gives some insight into the Turkish camp. Seems no expense has been spared.
Suggests they've focussed on the best way to utilise Ev Ferguson, referring to the high line the Brighton wingers play which allows Ev to drop deeper when he feels like it. In that regard, with Ogbene's omission, I reckon Idah will start up front as he has shown that he's capable of holding up play, but also working the channels well to create space.

Mentions they've been playing a few high-intesity bursts of games vs the preferred Greek formation, and sort of suggests there might be a slight change to the formation to get the best vs the 433.

Notable mention for Smallbone and his immediate link-in tactically with Doherty.
It's inconceivable that Ferguson won't start - and he should - unlike the FR game where he couldn't not start, but probably shouldn't have.
Assuming Cullen & Molumby both will start....

----------- Bazunu
Doc -- Collins Egan OShea -- COD
-------- Molumby Cullen --------
--- Smallbone ------- Idah ------
------------ Ferguson ----------

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Originally Posted by Kingdom

mcDonnell had a good piece on Kenny over the past 24 hours.

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was it online or in print? couldn't find it easily online

edit... nevermind: think i have it

https://m.independent.ie/sport/socce...554945057.html

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Originally Posted by texidub

Ogbene being out for these games is a real sickener. And June internationals can be weird coming after the club season end. A win in Greece would be fantastic... I think a draw is most likely though, given our historical results (pre-Kenny included) in away games.

Hoping Johnston gets a run out against Gib at least, but wouldn't mind him getting 20-30 mins against Greece either. I'm usually optimistic/naive but am nervous going into these games.. it's make or break time for Kenny. Group could be over for us by this time next week (and Kenny likely pushed out) especially if we lose to Greece, or we could be in dreamland with the obvious team progress shown against France being maintained (wins against Greece and Gib). That's a lot to hang on two matches, but they are pivotal for the near term future of this team.

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Johnson getting 20 - 30 minutes against Greece? Seriously? Johnson needs to start in Athens. He is a real threat to opponents. Johnson, Ogbene. Ferguson first names on the team sheet and work backwards from there.

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Originally Posted by mark12345

Johnson getting 20 - 30 minutes against Greece? Seriously? Johnson needs to start in Athens. He is a real threat to opponents. Johnson, Ogbene. Ferguson first names on the team sheet and work backwards from there.

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Make that Obafemi, not Ogbene

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Originally Posted by mark12345

Make that Obafemi, not Ogbene

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I'd be very surprised if he starts both Johnstone and Obafemi along with Ferguson - probably a case of either or...

Bazunu/Travers/Kelleher

Doherty
O'Shea
Egan
Collins
O'Dowda/McClean

Cullen
Molumby
Smallbone/Knight

Ferguson
Obafemi/Idah/Johnstone/Parrott

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Originally Posted by Kingdom

mcDonnell had a good piece on Kenny over the past 24 hours. Gives some insight into the Turkish camp. Seems no expense has been spared.
Suggests they've focussed on the best way to utilise Ev Ferguson, referring to the high line the Brighton wingers play which allows Ev to drop deeper when he feels like it. In that regard, with Ogbene's omission, I reckon Idah will start up front as he has shown that he's capable of holding up play, but also working the channels well to create space.

Mentions they've been playing a few high-intesity bursts of games vs the preferred Greek formation, and sort of suggests there might be a slight change to the formation to get the best vs the 433.

Notable mention for Smallbone and his immediate link-in tactically with Doherty.
It's inconceivable that Ferguson won't start - and he should - unlike the FR game where he couldn't not start, but probably shouldn't have.
Assuming Cullen & Molumby both will start....

----------- Bazunu
Doc -- Collins Egan OShea -- COD
-------- Molumby Cullen --------
--- Smallbone ------- Idah ------
------------ Ferguson ----------

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That's what I'd go with as well. It's going to be very hard for Doherty to last for 90, particularly if we are asking him to link up with Smallbone down that side but he's still the best option. I could see Kenny picking Knight over Smallbone to help win the midfield a bit more but I hope he's brave and puts out an 11 that can get the most out of Ferguson. I think Smallbone edges it in that respect.

Johnston will be useful off the bench v Greece and I'd start him against Gibraltar.

Hard to know what to expect in June games but it's the same for Greece. Maybe it helps that a few of our starters haven't played that much this season? Less match fit but less banged up? I think a draw would be a decent result for this team if not for qualification but I'm hopeful for a win.

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Originally Posted by mark12345

Make that Obafemi, not Ogbene

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So a two man midfield with three forwards away from home which has cost us results in the past?

Think it could be something like:

.............................Bazunu
Doherty -'Collins - Egan - O'Shea - McClean
....Knight - Molumby - Cullen - Johnston
............................Ferguson

Think Johnston will replace Ogbene from Marchs line up against France. Obviously won't be 5-4-1 like against France just easier to write it down that way. The midfield four would be a box formation with Johnston and Knight playing behind Ferguson.

Other than that Kenny will likely pair Obafemi and Ferguson up top with Molumby, Cullen, and Knight in midfield. Not sure how fit Idah will be having missed some training illness this camp.

The team Kingers picked is the same as I had picked earlier in the week., but JR is right Idah has missed time this week and that might affect selection.

I think its gone under the radar a little that Johnston had been in pretty good form for his club towards the end of the season, he was starting every week and got in the Portugal League Team of the week on one occasion, so it is very possible that he starts against Greece.

It is very possible that we see the same type of formation as the France game with Johnston stepping into the Ogbene role.