Election 2011 - General

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Originally Posted by Fr Damo

Do Paddy Power offer odds on voting share at the next election? I'd bet a score FF get 26-28% (alot more than the 17% in yesterdays poll) Back to the rainbows of the earlys 90s I fear.

Lenihan was on the Radio this morn saying it was unfortunate but in times of serious financial discussions it was important not to declare anything about those discussions publically. (wow theres news!) This is exactly what Lucy was saying last week when he said he was not surprised B L was dening IMF involvement but at the same time expected an announcment mid week.
So why are the media pushing this issue? Unfair on this particular issue, should be flogged for the other stuff though!

Noonan sounded very plausable and reasoned this morning on the same radio show btw. He explained the buget voting proceedure i.e when voting might be required and basicaly only becomes a voting issue when a tax is changed. i.e a Dole or Pension cut won't be voted upon.
Therefore no elction till April or may I think, depite threats by FF back benchers.

As a country we need to form a government without the Healy raes and Lowrys holding the governments ball bag.

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I see what you're saying re Lenihans denials. But the simple fact there is a right way and a wrong way and this is the wring way. You can't treat your employers' with contempt and expect to get away with it, let alone lie and obfuscate for 2 whole years. While agree that this isn't what the media should be getting their knickers in a twist over but this is the culmination of 2 years if bull and the nation us sick and tired of these clowns.

I don't agree that the election will be so far away. We have a situation whereby we could see the resignation of Cowen before the budget which would mean that we could potentially have a new taoiseach then. There would be zero mandate for a 3rd taoiseach in 1 dail and there will have to be an election soon after Christmas.

If he does muddle on then we have a situation where the 3 other bye-elections will have to be held. And thet will never be called as they have no hope in winning them. Also bear In mind FF will want a new leader in advance of the general election and you have a situation that means they'll want Cowen out in advance of it being called.

So in essence, anything can happen.

Looks like the Greens will pull the life-support first.

That'll not save Gormley. Ah beautiful yellowbellys.

Bonnieshels, don't disagree with any of that really.
Could be all epidemic as Delboy would say. The Greens, by party and by nature a bunch of Wallys.

Confirmed Greens want GE in second half of January.

Rats jumping from the sinking ship, shockedy horror

Fine Gael and Labour are ****ting themselves as we speak with the impossible task of cleaning up FF/Greens diarrhoea of debt, social/economic destruction, corruption and booby traps (Croke Park agreement, pension cuts etc.)

The Eco-Rats will probably get a small bump in votes but it won't be enough to save them going the way of the PDs, 2, 3 seats tops, Sargent and Gormley to creep in on the last seats.

FF WILL get at least 25%. Go read on 'Shy Tory syndrome', shy FF syndrome is thriving, that's why they're on 17%, it's more acceptable to admit you're a paedo than a FF voter even anonymously over the phone. Shy FF will be worth 3-4% and add the usual 3-4% who as every election will cave into FF's 2011 Election slogan 'the opposition are just as corrupt as us' lies.

FG/Lab government will be the outcome and that government will not last 18 months as the collapse of the banking system, mortgage defaults and sovereign default are unavoidable. FF back in power by summer 2012.

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Originally Posted by total hoofball

Fine Gael and Labour are ****ting themselves as we speak with the impossible task of cleaning up FF/Greens diarrhoea of debt, social/economic destruction, corruption and booby traps (Croke Park agreement, pension cuts etc.)

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Both of them are laughing it up knowing that any decisions they make fiscally over the next 4 years can be blamed on next month's budget and the ECB bail out.

Fair play to the Greens for finally doing the right thing. I don't think they'll retain a single seat to be honest, but they may have retained some chance of a future comeback by doing this.

Bizarre situation though whereby the four year plan will be created by FF and co. but they'll have nothing to do with its implementation. It's almost an incentive to make a balls of it, not that they've ever needed one.

It's beautiful. From the darkness will come light.

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Originally Posted by Mr A

Fair play to the Greens for finally doing the right thing. I don't think they'll retain a single seat to be honest, but they may have retained some chance of a future comeback by doing this.

Bizarre situation though whereby the four year plan will be created by FF and co. but they'll have nothing to do with its implementation. It's almost an incentive to make a balls of it, not that they've ever needed one.

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Noonan outlined that whilst the numbers can't change the content of the 4 year plan will be up for discussion once FG are in power.

Like Mr A I'm inclined to give some credit to Gormley for deciding at last to run this thing aground. Strikes me he couldn't win either way -Stay in government and be accused of clinging to power for self interest -or pull the plug and be accused of jumping ship for self interest. It also steals the inititiative from the real bilge rats on Fianna Fails bench who'd be looking for their headline grabbing redemption moment by not supporting the budget.

Eamon Ryan on Radio 1 now and even with today's announcement he's still talking ********.

Lowry, Healy-Rae........

scurrying from the seawater with their tails dragging behind them. Let's hope they don't quite make it.

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Originally Posted by Mr A

Fair play to the Greens for finally doing the right thing. I don't think they'll retain a single seat to be honest, but they may have retained some chance of a future comeback by doing this.

Bizarre situation though whereby the four year plan will be created by FF and co. but they'll have nothing to do with its implementation. It's almost an incentive to make a balls of it, not that they've ever needed one.

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Trevor Sargeant will retain his seat I think.

Noticed Gilmore sounded sympathetic to the plight of the GP on the LLS, but the numbers are likely to mean that it's not necessary to have them in power.

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Originally Posted by osarusan

Lowry, Healy-Rae........

scurrying from the seawater with their tails dragging behind them. Let's hope they don't quite make it.

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Mammy O'Rourke is the one that I find the most disgusting. She seems to have a lot of sway and only a few weeks back was peddling her garbage on both the LLS and the SNS. Each time she was slagging Enda Kenny personally, below the belt in my opinion, and eulogising about Cowen.

These are the type of characters I'm glad the Greens have whipped the carpet from under. Probably the only hand they've left is to announce they won't support the budget. and litterly as I type they've walked ....Lowry and Healy-Rae Jump Ship

The Greens are finished as a political party, they will still attract a marginal vote on pure green issues (with a small "g"). Which, with the benefit of hindsight, is where they should've limited their remit to.

I'm sure Sargeant is quietly seething at Gormley's delusions of grandeur.

Can't believe the codge coming from The Mutant Rae.
Was in Kerry at the weekend and I fear The Junior Mutant will take over instead of him.

From Lowry:

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Michael Lowry has also said that it is unlikely he will support the Budget, and called for Fine Gael and Labour to support the Budget in the national interest.

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So he won't support it, but believes it's in the national interest to do so? What an absolute scumbag.

Snap. I had just copied that for pasting. Complete cnut. Mammy O'Rourke on news now.

Healy-Rae's support was rock solid as late as last week.

Has he found out in the interim the budget hasn't got a Maglev train link to Killarney and a world class teaching hospital for Kenmare as he hoped?

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Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

The Greens are finished as a political party, they will still attract a marginal vote on pure green issues (with a small "g"). Which, with the benefit of hindsight, is where they should've limited their remit to.

I'm sure Sargeant is quietly seething at Gormley's delusions of grandeur.

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It's unfortunate in a way, but when it comes down to it, Sargeant was quite happy to take a Minister of State position here, which to me makes him a hypocrite. A nice man, speaks a lot of sense, but standing down and then accepting a Junior position is ridiculous.

Sean Power (FF Kildare) looking for Cowen's resignation.

He's touting the Lowry line of looking for FG and Labour input into the budget, presumably so that in opposition FF will be able to point to their (FG and Lab) involvement in its drafting.

Micky Martin'll have his parachute on...

Its amazing, no matter what FF do they look like complete schmucks. The least they can do is vote through the budget that crystallises the mess they created.

"If he (Cowen) really cares about the country, it's time for him to go" - some FF councillor on Liveline.

Talk about knives in the back once the tide has turned.

The whole country might capsize as the FF party machine all head for the liferafts at the same time.

By God even by their own standard they are an unclassy lot.....

One has to hand it to FF though, not only did they feck up the country but also the whole of Europe, and the future of the Euro as a currency. That's some going by any standards

FF could save some face by desolving now, calling an election for next month instead and call the bluff of the rats who are jumping the ship. FF would have nothing to lose in that respect.

Healy and Lowry on RTE at lunchtime spoofing the usual ****e that Labour and FG need to come out and support the budget, though they won't.

How did we get here - IMF, severe budget, and general election all within what, 8 weeks of each other?
The economy will be sufficated over xmas.

Damo. Stop giving them ideas.

It just keeps going.
Gilmore has just said that he'll go into government as a junior partner.
The realisation has finally hit home.

What chances of Cowen heading to the Park tonight?

The rumours on politics.ie say that he will do so.

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Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

Its amazing, no matter what FF do they look like complete schmucks. The least they can do is vote through the budget that crystallises the mess they created.

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There's no point voting for the budget, when we know that even before it's announced, it'll be torn up in a matter of weeks. And they still want it passed? Farcical.

Cowan to make a statement at 7....

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Originally Posted by mypost

There's no point voting for the budget, when we know that even before it's announced, it'll be torn up in a matter of weeks. And they still want it passed? Farcical.

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Really? How is it going to be torn up? All the new Government can do is tinker at the margins. The number has to be the same....

Cowen press conference at 7pm

Damn you Mr AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

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Originally Posted by mypost

There's no point voting for the budget, when we know that even before it's announced, it'll be torn up in a matter of weeks. And they still want it passed? Farcical.

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Noonan said the opposite on Morning Ireland this morning. The numbers will be the same. The method will be what is different. It would be in FG's and Labour's political interest under normal circumstances to let FF propose the budget however they are so close now to being in power that they may as well grab it with both hands.

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Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

Really? How is it going to be torn up? All the new Government can do is tinker at the margins. The number has to be the same....

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The new budget will be different, and is the one that is important.

3 Budgets and two elections in the next 12 months. Going to be a busy political year.

Cowen won't be calling an election according to Justin McCarthy...

He's called it for after Christmas, after the budget is implemented.

The fact the budget is now irrelevant seems to have escaped him.

Sits well for the other two parties which means an super extra bonus majority.

"This goes without any personal consideration of mine" he says... is he for real?

Where was Mary Hanafin?

Declan Ganley on Sky News... Oh oh!

Well lads, missed the news, anything happen in the free state today?

Seriously though, looking in from a semi outside point of view, things look fairly orderly. Yeah, there is much gnashing of teeth, but one would expect that. But compared to Greece everything looks like it is going well.