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09/06/2011, 5:41 PM
Gather round

Quote:

Originally Posted by French Toasht

I'm not merely saying this because the ELO ranking system is favourable to Ireland, but acrosss the board it seems to be the more equitable system of ranking teams

Disagree. Elo is based mainly on predicting what will happen next (or being 'realistic', if you prefer) rather than measuring what happened last. So it will always favor bigger/ stronger countries and disadvantage smaller fry even when they pull off surprise wins.

Quote:

For example Scotland are twice the team NI are, yet they are ranked behind them in the FIFA rankings

Comparable records in WC 2010 qualifying: Scotland 10 points, NI 9 (both from eight games)

And in 2012 qualifying thus far: Scotland 4 points, NI 5 (both from four games of eight).

In games that count towards actual qualification now, rather than merely jockeying for seeding places in two years time, they're just as bad as we are.
09/06/2011, 8:48 PM
Cymro

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

Do Montenegrin and Cymro have little "alert" devices installed that bleep when a football forum anywhere in the world mentions Montenego or Wales?

No, it's my life's mission to make sure I post something about Wales on every national football forum at least once a week. Posting it in relevant topics is just a cover for this massive exercise in spam. Now excuse me while I go and post on fussball.de, foot.fr, calcio.it, futebol.bra, futbol.es, fitba.sco, and soccer.com (sponsored by McDonalds-Coca-Cola-Microsoft).
10/06/2011, 2:28 AM
ArdeeBhoy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gather round

Disagree. Elo is based mainly on predicting what will happen next (or being 'realistic', if you prefer) rather than measuring what happened last. So it will always favor bigger/ stronger countries and disadvantage smaller fry even when they pull off surprise wins.

And we always thought you liked cr*p late '70's electro-rock bands??
:eek:

Quote:

In games that count towards actual qualification now, rather than merely jockeying for seeding places in two years time, they're just as bad as we are.

Not sure understand this comment, though the facts of recent performance do confirm that, if that's what you meant....
10/06/2011, 9:04 AM
Edgar

I subscribed to two threads regarding the rankings :)

Anyway... here you go again.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA pots.
10/06/2011, 10:49 AM
French Toasht

The important pot for us is who we draw from Pot 2. If we draw Slovakia, Slovenia or Montenegro, we should be favourites to finish in the top 2. Other than them, we'll have a real scrap on our hands to get a top two finish. Unless of course we draw Norway from Pot 1.
10/06/2011, 11:01 AM
DannyInvincible

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin

Even the alphabet is conspiring against Wales. Below San Marino :(

You're not even wrong!

Code:

45 Faroe Islands 273 -------------------------------- 45 Wales 273

(Although I assume this to be the proper, less fun explanation: "Wales will be tied for 45th (last place in the 5th pot) with the Faroe Islands. Both teams will have 273 points. Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total.")
10/06/2011, 11:10 AM
DannyInvincible

Quote:

Originally Posted by French Toasht

The important pot for us is who we draw from Pot 2. If we draw Slovakia, Slovenia or Montenegro, we should be favourites to finish in the top 2. Other than them, we'll have a real scrap on our hands to get a top two finish. Unless of course we draw Norway from Pot 1.

Even if we were in pot 2, there are still some teams in pot 3 that you'd be keen to avoid. Admittedly, pot 2 is marginally stronger overall with the likes of France and Serbia within, but Switzerland, Belgium and the Czechs are no walkovers. Belgium will be a genuine force to be reckoned with in a few years. They're already very strong at the back and with the likes of Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku coming through up front, I wouldn't be overly keen on competing with them. Bosnia, Belarus and Hungary also appear to be emergent powers.
10/06/2011, 11:20 AM
Kingdom

I'm getting the jinx in early.

If we could avoid the teams in bold from each pot I'd be delighted, and if we got the italic'd teams I'd wet myself:

Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece

France, Mont, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia

Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Georgia, Lithuania, Scotland, North, Austria, Poland

Armenia, Estonia, Cyprus, Finland, Latvia, Moldova, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroes,

Wales, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino
10/06/2011, 11:29 AM
geysir

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kingdom

I
Wales, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

Iceland does exist.
10/06/2011, 11:33 AM
Kingdom

Not when Ejyshshshshshsfokill is finished with it... Mwhahaha!
10/06/2011, 11:37 AM
SwanVsDalton

The dream: Norway, Slovenia, Us, Albania, Faroes, San Marino

The nightmare: Spain, France, Us, Romania, Macedonia, Wales.

Always think we're going to get an an England, Ireland, Scotland/NI, Wales group...
10/06/2011, 12:10 PM
BonnieShels

Remember that qualifying group where it could've been all 5 of us. In the end it was just ni, England and wales.

Looking over those pots I can see no problems with getting Austria or Finland.

Kingdom, ways your issue with Wales?

Also think they we're gonna get France.
10/06/2011, 1:17 PM
geysir

There's no problem with Wales but they might not behave as per their 6th seed ranking, so they have nightmare potential.
10/06/2011, 1:28 PM
ArdeeBhoy

Wales are rubbish. Even under Stan, we took four points from them.
Chances must be about once a millennia about drawing those four Brit 'teams'.

Also what's so great about Denmark and Turkey currently?
And all the teams in Pot 4-5 have the potential to cause problems.
10/06/2011, 1:31 PM
Kingdom

Quote:

Originally Posted by BonnieShels

Remember that qualifying group where it could've been all 5 of us. In the end it was just ni, England and wales.

Looking over those pots I can see no problems with getting Austria or Finland.

Kingdom, ways your issue with Wales?

Also think they we're gonna get France.

The less derbies the better. It's not too long ago we struggled with them in the Millenium.

Wales have done ok underage recently too. They've a few decent players. They're not a bottom pot team. That's pretty much it.
I would be expecting us to beat Finland h + a, but last time out they were decent, and I'm pretty sure they were ok the campaign before. This campaign not so much.
10/06/2011, 1:35 PM
French Toasht

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwanVsDalton

The dream: Norway, Slovenia, Us, Albania, Faroes, San Marino

The nightmare: Spain, France, Us, Romania, Macedonia, Wales.

Always think we're going to get an an England, Ireland, Scotland/NI, Wales group...

Albania in the dream group? Really? Remember we had them in the Euro 2004 campaign. Lucky to take a point in Tirana and scraped a last minute winner against them at home. That was the era where, you knew it had all gone tits up when Big Gary Doherty was being thrown forward for the last ten minutes to cause a commotion in the opposition's box.

Without a shadow of a doubt Wales are the worst team we could get in pot 6. Plenty of teams in that pot have amateur players. Whilst you could say San Marino would be a guaranteed 6 points, you could never say that with certainty with Wales.
10/06/2011, 1:43 PM
Kingdom

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArdeeBhoy

Wales are rubbish. Even under Stan, we took four points from them.

Then surely we should be taking 6 points from them, handily, yet we scraped a 1-0 win in Croker, and weren't much better in Cardiff. Games against local rivals should be avoided, always the potential for a slip-up.

Quote:

Also what's so great about Denmark and Turkey currently?

Denamrk are serial qualifiers. They've a far better record than us. Turkey have a lot more coming through the ranks than we do. If I'd the choice of getting them in the playoff for Euro 2012 (if we got there) or qual for WC 2014, I'd much prefer now.

Quote:

And all the teams in Pot 4-5 have the potential to cause problems.

Of course they do, but some have far more potential than others.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frenchy

Albania in the dream group? Really? Remember we had them in the Euro 2004 campaign. Lucky to take a point in Tirana and scraped a last minute winner against them at home. That was the era where, you knew it had all gone tits up when Big Gary Doherty was being thrown forward for the last ten minutes to cause a commotion in the opposition's box.

Not just then, they're one of a number of the middling to lower ranked countries that have improved immensely.
10/06/2011, 1:51 PM
SwanVsDalton

Quote:

Originally Posted by French Toasht

Albania in the dream group? Really? Remember we had them in the Euro 2004 campaign. Lucky to take a point in Tirana and scraped a last minute winner against them at home. That was the era where, you knew it had all gone tits up when Big Gary Doherty was being thrown forward for the last ten minutes to cause a commotion in the opposition's box.

Compared to most of the rest (Bulgaria, Romania, Poland) they are an easier proposition. The best draw from that pot has to be them or Lithuania - most are better sides and I'd rather avoid Georgia or any neighbours. The Lithuanians are always worth the odd scalp. So it is Albania for me.

To be honest the dream is for the French to be expelled, the English to withdraw due to overwhelming self-hatred, and Ireland to find themselves top seeds and inexplicably drawn against sixth seeds only, with the Euro Champ tourney being cancelled in favour of determining a winner post qualifying on the basis of the most points accrued by a team wearing a green shirt. But I doubt that'll happen for a few years yet.
10/06/2011, 2:02 PM
dantheman

According to this we are 28th-32nd (depending on Mexico/Chile/USA/Paraguay's results). Is that correct?

NI move up 4 places to 61 (62 if Panama do well) despite dropping 22 ranking points due to massive losses by teams above them (Libya, Guinea, Ecuador, Armenia). They were lucky
10/06/2011, 2:11 PM
DannyInvincible

If we'd beaten Slovakia in Zilina, I'm guessing we'd be in pot 2 now? What ifs and all that...

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