Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

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Originally Posted by Jicked

Even if we can't win the group, the play-offs are looking much less daunting then last time with most of the top seeds cruising.

At the moment the teams look like being:

Belgium or Turkey
Slovenia or Serbia
Belarus, Romania, Bosnia or Albania
Sweden
Croatia or Greece or Israel
England or Montenegro
Czech Republic

And remember the best placed of all those qualifies automatically. Currently that would be England/Macedonia's group, but we're right up there. In fact if we beat Slovakia, drew and drew with Russia I'd think even if we ended finishing second we might be the best runner up.

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Even more headwrecking is that the playoffs are (quite unfairly) seeded by co-efficient and, lets face it, that's where we are headed as we always seem to end up there. As things stand we are on the borderline but we may well end up as a seeded team in the playoffs and would avoid the likes of Sweden, Denmark and the Czechs with Slovenia, Montenegro and Romania being more likely opponents. The co-efficients would affect out seeding in the finals also if we were to qualify, but we would probably end up as bottom seeds in the finals if we get there.

Last 4 games of the top 3 teams:

Ireland: Slovakia (h) Russia (a) Andorra (a) Armenia (h)
Slovakia: Ireland (a) Armenia (h) Russia (h) Macedonia (a)
Russia: Macedonia (h) Ireland (h) Slovakia (a) Andorra (a)

The very fact that Slovakia will not be facing Andorra places both ourselves and Russia at an immediate advantage. We should pick up 6 points period in our last two games. I'd also expect a home victory against what is a very poor Slovakia side. Then anything can happen in Moscow.
Slovakia have a tricky run in with no gimmes. I'd expect us to definitely finish ahead of Slovakia. But as Johnny Giles says predicting results from fixture lists can be notoriously inaccurate. Still though I fancy our chances of topping the group at this stage.

I think its second place all the way looking at the fixtures, even a draw at home to Slovakia might do for that as they look like a team itching to drop points against Armenia and Macedonia. If we beat the Slovaks (and we should be going all out to, because they're not great), we're pretty much guaranteed at least second but even 10 more points might not be enough to top the group so its going to be a big ask.

10 points should top the group.

Slovakia at home is almost like a Cup final. HUGE game.

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Originally Posted by geysir

"We" can't separate you from your pessimism, it is your permanent bedfellow.

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Except I'm a realist. What's your excuse??
;)

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Originally Posted by shakermaker1982

Slovakia at home is almost like a Cup final. HUGE game.

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I'm not sure I can wait. Or to be disappointed in the play-offs instead?
Anyone want a ticket....

I have mine. Poxy summer getting in the way!

Games remaining witg predicted points;

Rep of Ireland: Slovakia (h) (3pts) Russia (a) (0pts) Andorra (a) (3pts) Armenia (h) (3pts) Total P10 Pts22

Slovakia: Ireland (a) (0pts) Armenia (h) (3pts) Russia (h) (1pt) Macedonia (a) (1pt) Total 18pts

Russia: Macedonia (h) (3pts) Ireland (h) (3pts) Slovakia (a) (1pt) Andorra (a) (3pts) Total 23pts

Can see us beat slovakia at home and take six of the minnows. Moscow will be just too tough we'll lose out there.
Reckon slovakia and russia will play out draw and macedonia will take a point from their home game with Slovakia.
We should make the play-off at least.

If we manage a draw in moscow then we should win the group, assuming we beat slovakia home.

All to play for.

I just can't see us taking anything in Moscow. That stat about Russia only losing 3 competitive matches at home since WWII puts the enormity of the task in perspective.

In order to even get a playoff in this group we are going to have to do something we have only done once in ten years, and that is beat a side ranked higher than us in the group.

Guess who the only higher seeded team we have beaten since Holland 2001 is?

Slovakia. Lets hope we can repeat that result.

The Russians will be confident they can take us. A few teams have come to Dublin, like France, and Bulgaria, played well and thought the home game was all sewn up.
If we are on our 'away game', a draw is not unrealistic.

Not to tempt fate but we haven't lost an away game in almost 4 years.

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

I just can't see us taking anything in Moscow. That stat about Russia only losing 3 competitive matches at home since WWII puts the enormity of the task in perspective.

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One of those was recently against...Slovakia.

Point taken in general though.

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

I just can't see us taking anything in Moscow. That stat about Russia only losing 3 competitive matches at home since WWII puts the enormity of the task in perspective.

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A draw is all we need in Moscow to top the group, assuming we take nine points from the other games. The chances of taking nine from nine in those other three would be very favourable, I feel. Andorra away is a certain three. Armenia in Dublin on the last day will have little to play for. The wind will have been taken out of their sales. And I'd fancy us at home against them regardless, even if they were going to go all out for a victory. Slovakia at home is obviously the crucial one, but Slovakia have been a bit inconsistent and, again, we have the home factor in our favour.

More realistically, we should be looking at how many games Russia have drawn at home since World War II and taking some confidence from that. I'd imagine they've drawn plenty more games at home in all that time than a mere three.

By the way, attempting to work out all the possible scenarios, I don't know whether I love or hate this stage of the group.

Yes, I'll be pinning my hopes on those back-to-back draws in Moscow in 1953.

I think a better omen is that we'll be playing against a Dutch manager. We have a great record against Dutch managers in September in a year beginning with a 2 and ending in a 1. :) It'll be 10 years very nearly to the day. That it's been 10 years isn't a great stat though.

I think Trap may well have the savvy to get the better of Advocaat, who won the first round.

Sure Danny its pointless speculating at this stage seeing as you already jinxed it with the 'all of us finish on 22 points but we come third' scenario. Its not that mad a scenario either.

I wish you never said it!

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

A draw is all we need in Moscow to top the group, assuming we take nine points from the other games.

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I disagree. I really think the Russians will have the bit between their teeth now, and assuming like you say we take one point in Moscow (which I just can't see in light of the way they ripped us to shreds in Dublin, the hostile atmosphere and the fact that they are the only team in the group with very technically gifted players, capable of cutting open our rigid catenaccio style), you must be assuming that Russia will drop points in one of their 3 remaining games. Andorra and Macedonia, I just can't see it and I think they will beat Slovakia in Bratislava. That would leave us both on level points and their head to head being better meaning they'd top the group.

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

I disagree. I really think the Russians will have the bit between their teeth now, and assuming like you say we take one point in Moscow (which I just can't see in light of the way they ripped us to shreds in Dublin, the hostile atmosphere and the fact that they are the only team in the group with very technically gifted players, capable of cutting open our rigid catenaccio style), you must be assuming that Russia will drop points in one of their 3 remaining games. Andorra and Macedonia, I just can't see it and I think they will beat Slovakia in Bratislava. That would leave us both on level points and their head to head being better meaning they'd top the group.

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Sorry, you're right. If we were to draw in Russia and they were to win their other three games as well as us, we'd finish second. I think I had Little Hobo's analysis in mind and maybe overlooked or took it for granted the suggestion they'd drop two points away to Slovakia.

If we were to draw in Russia, however, our chances of taking the automatic runner-up spot with 17 points in total would be pretty high. That's not something I'd considered earlier, mind.

Edit: 17 points in total after results against Andorra would have been discounted to rank the second-placed teams throughout the groups, I mean. Goal difference would also come into play if such a scenario were to arise.

The best second-placed team during UEFA qualification for the World Cup managed 16 points: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_FI...d-placed_teams

Well Danny, I'm very glad you have stepped forward to work out our chances of qualifying as the best runner up with 16 or 17 points.
You must have missed the invitation on page 42. We need somebody smart.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

McDonnell complains that Trap doesn't go to enough games in England.

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If Trap did go to more games in England, who else might he have checked out that might feature in the squad? I can only think of Hoolahan. Trap could have gone to a hundred games this season (all competitions) and not seen anything worthwhile in, say, Andy Reid or Stephen Ireland. He knows Noel Hunt who can consider himself a little unlucky. Jay Tabb rarely features and was in a Trap squad anyway, as was McPhail. Paddy McCarthy perhaps.

Ian Harte he has made a judgment on. Wembley may well have proved him right.

Pretty much everyone I can think of in contention for a place has been given a run out, or has been called up.

So we really want Montenegro to start effing up?

10 points from our next 4 games is very doable. So is 7 though!