World Ranking

That disappointing result leaves us with a max possible of about 748 pts in July (about 24th in UEFA) and min of about 529 pts (about 34th in UEFA).

The cut off for Pot 2 will be about 780/800 pts (18th or 19th .. depending on Russia's rank) Pot 3 will be above about 680 pts (28th) and Pot 4 will probably be above about 430 pts.

Pot 3 or 4 makes no real difference. Really its not worth following any more, the dream of Pot 2 is over. We had a great chance with 3 home games to put up a high ranking score.

These are the weighted points already earned for previous 3 periods.
To July 2012 78.975
To July 2013 76.97376923
To July 2014 58.195


These are the points earned for this period to July 2015, when the seeding will be announced based on that months ranking. I've been optimistic with the England and Scotland results below. (The formatting is poor so attaching a pic of this table below too).

Date Team Rnk M I T C M*I*T*C=P
03/09/2014 Oman 67 3 1 133 0.92 367.08
07/09/2014 Georgia 95 3 2.5 105 0.99 779.625
14/10/2014 Germany 1 1 2.5 200 0.99 495
14/11/2014 Scotland 37 0 2.5 163 0.99 0
18/11/2014 USA 23 3 1 177 0.92 488.52
29/03/2015 Poland 40 1 2.5 160 0.99 396
.. still to play ..
07/06/2015 England 15 3 1 185 0.99 549.45
17/06/2015 Scotland 38 3 2.5 162 0.99 1202.85
Total 4278.525
Average 534.815625

Add four year weighted averages together 78.975 + 76.97376923 + 58.195 + 534.815625 will give the max of about 748. Could nearly stretch it to 760 points if England climb to rank 3 and scotland climb to rank 30 before we play them, which even then look like not enough for Pot 2.

Attachment 2248

Just to add though, it looks like Romania could be in Pot 1 (maybe even 2nd best team in the world by July 2015?!). Also N. Ireland and Poland could be Pot 2. So still possible to get a favourable draw whatever Pot we are in. Not questioning Romania's ability, just saying I'd prefer to get them over Germany, Spain, France, England etc.

I was looking at it last night. We could get a relatively brilliant draw but equally a very hard one like Germany, Portugal and Ukraine in our group as the top three teams.The brilliant draw would probably still be 2-3 teams better than us in a group, as we are a pot 4 quality side, but if we had a fighting chance and a good start to the campaign, we can dream!!!

The big problem for the world cup is that Europe gets such a small number of teams relative to it's quality, so even if we come second, we go straight into a play-off where we could end up playing really top sides.

I am a bit annoyed with Oneills attitude and blatant disregard with respect to these rankings and fixtures. 13 games in and a year and half later he is still talking about competitive games, and bar Germany(result wise) we haven't won any or changed our rankings(drastically), which in turn makes it more difficult as you will keep getting harder/more difficult teams in the next groups. It also shows a bit of a lack of appreciation for continuation. If O'Neill leaves Ireland and the next man comes in, he could be in a terrible situation. Still if we qualify for the Euro's I think most would forget and forgive about this.

To think Northern Ireland and Wales are likely to qualify and we aren't, there is something seriously wrong there. It could have been a great Euros with all the Home Nations and Ireland. We definitely won't be having that now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by paul_oshea

I am a bit annoyed with Oneills attitude and blatant disregard with respect to these rankings and fixtures. 13 games in and a year and half later he is still talking about competitive games, and bar Germany we haven't won any or changed or rankings, which in turn makes it more difficult as you will keep getting harder more difficult teams in the next groups. It also shows a bit of a lack of appreciation for continuation. If O'Neill leaves Ireland and the next man comes in, he could be in a terrible situation. Still if we qualify for the Euro's I think most would forget and forgive about this.

To think Northern Ireland and Wales are likely to qualify and we aren't, there is something seriously wrong there. It could have been a great Euros with all the Home Nations and Ireland. We definitely won't be having that now.

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That's a big point - between the FAI and MON, a concerted effort should have been made to play teams that are above us, but who we had a decent shout of beating. The USA friendly was a well thought out one and even the Costa Rica one wasn't a bad idea on paper. I'd have been getting the likes of Cape Verde and Algeria to Dublin in a stadium one third full if it meant that we got up to being third seeds and gave us a shot at second seeds.

Short sightedness on behalf of the FAI, they are caught between a rock and a hard place with bringing in money for games, but they should be balancing that well with the fixtures to help improve our standing.

Good article on how Switzerland plays few friendlies to help themselves in the rankings:

https://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs...144405289.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by paul_oshea

To think Northern Ireland and Wales are likely to qualify and we aren't, there is something seriously wrong there. It could have been a great Euros with all the Home Nations and Ireland. We definitely won't be having that now.

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to that point, then, is it that we "don't have the players"? I hear this line from every second person and I just don't buy it. I never have. Sure we don't have the same players we had in the 90's or the one-two world class players that we used to but arguably our pool of top flight players is quite rich and certainly better than Northern Ireland and at least on a par with or similar to Wales and Scotland. Yet they are all looking more likely to qualify.

It is about mentality and confidence of our players if you ask me. They are scared sh1tless of fcking up which means, invariably, they majorly fck up from time to time. The reason they are scared I believe is the shift in media and public support since 2002 from 100% support to divisiveness and contempt for players coupled with outlandish expectations for what success looks like for a small nation as ours.

I think MON is the mon to take us back to believing. We (the collective fans and media) need to give him time and 100% vocal support from the terraces and tabloids.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Metrostars

Good article on how Switzerland plays few friendlies to help themselves in the rankings:

https://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs...144405289.html

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That article is from 2013 and Switzerland did beat Brazil in a friendly:) One could argue this way or that way about the merits of the seeding system, but when it came to the World Cup finals, Italy were poor and Switzerland overall were less poor. The answer to that article's question was that Switzerland were marginally better than Italy, at that given time in the rankings and it was not disproved later at the WC.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by paul_oshea

I am a bit annoyed with Oneills attitude and blatant disregard with respect to these rankings and fixtures. 13 games in and a year and half later he is still talking about competitive games, and bar Germany(result wise) we haven't won any or changed our rankings(drastically), which in turn makes it more difficult as you will keep getting harder/more difficult teams in the next groups. It also shows a bit of a lack of appreciation for continuation. If O'Neill leaves Ireland and the next man comes in, he could be in a terrible situation. Still if we qualify for the Euro's I think most would forget and forgive about this.

To think Northern Ireland and Wales are likely to qualify and we aren't, there is something seriously wrong there. It could have been a great Euros with all the Home Nations and Ireland. We definitely won't be having that now.

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Is that blatant disregard or someone who wants to explore his playing options as much as possible?

I mean, back to aul Trap - for four years out of six we had a fairly good record in all games, including friendlies. We had a record breaking number of clean sheets. We didn't win a competitive game of note, but confidence grew and players believed they were hard to beat. And we were hard to beat.

The trade off? 442, two banks of four, long balls and a fairly consistent group of players, with a few wild-cards like Greg Cunningham, Cillian Morrison etc and non-stop debate over whether that was a good thing or not.

I agree with your point about ranking, but I don't think O'Neill disregards friendlies, I think he just knows he has to look at players and systems. I can live with that if it pays off competitively (and it hasn't yet) but it's not an easy task.

I have a certain amount of sympathy with O'Neill's task - Trap just had to get us getting results and hard to beat. O'Neill has to do that AND erase the ghost of Trap by getting us playing, and all with the usual turnover of players between campaigns.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SwanVsDalton

Is that blatant disregard or someone who wants to explore his playing options as much as possible?

I mean, back to aul Trap - for four years out of six we had a fairly good record in all games, including friendlies. We had a record breaking number of clean sheets. We didn't win a competitive game of note, but confidence grew and players believed they were hard to beat. And we were hard to beat.

The trade off? 442, two banks of four, long balls and a fairly consistent group of players, with a few wild-cards like Greg Cunningham, Cillian Morrison etc and non-stop debate over whether that was a good thing or not.

I agree with your point about ranking, but I don't think O'Neill disregards friendlies, I think he just knows he has to look at players and systems. I can live with that if it pays off competitively (and it hasn't yet) but it's not an easy task.

I have a certain amount of sympathy with O'Neill's task - Trap just had to get us getting results and hard to beat. O'Neill has to do that AND erase the ghost of Trap by getting us playing, and all with the usual turnover of players between campaigns.

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Ah here, he doesn't even get his game for Derry :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by geysir

That article is from 2013 and Switzerland did beat Brazil in a friendly:) One could argue this way or that way about the merits of the seeding system, but when it came to the World Cup finals, Italy were poor and Switzerland overall were less poor. The answer to that article's question was that Switzerland were marginally better than Italy, at that given time in the rankings and it was not disproved later at the WC.

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It was actually a blunder that put SWI ahead of ITA in the rankings imo. The rankings are full of holes and "miscalculations".

Norway were awarded the wrong points for a friendly against South Africa. The knock on effect was that they were ranked above Czech instead of below Czech. Italy played Czech and Swiss played Norway. Both won but Swiss got more points than they should (as a consequence of the strength of opposition) and Italy got less points than they should have.

I messaged the guy that runs football-rankings.info about this and he has seen many "miscalculations". They obviously have some sort of butterfly effect, so its hard to tell the full impact ....

http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2014/07/w...g-blunder.html

Discussion on it from rankings blog - see comments.

http://www.football-rankings.info/20...all-teams.html

Whether it was a blunder or not is besides the point, subsequent world cup performance did not disprove Switzerland's borderline elevated status as seeds, ahead of Italy.

However, how Norway were nr1 seeds for the 2014 WC qual draw, is worthy of a thesis which no doubt would shatter FIFA ranking table credibility.h

Quote:

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Originally Posted by geysir

Whether it was a blunder or not is besides the point, subsequent world cup performance did not disprove Switzerland's borderline elevated status as seeds, ahead of Italy.

However, how Norway were nr1 seeds for the 2014 WC qual draw, is worthy of a thesis which no doubt would shatter FIFA ranking table credibility.h

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I checked back there. Norway had a lot of good results in 2010/2011 in the lead up to the seedings in July. They beat Denmark(28), Cyprus(43), Portugal(8) and Iceland(79) in UEFA qualifiers. They also beat Ireland(32) and France(21) in friendlies. They earned it.

If France had won that friendly with Norway then it would have been France seeded instead of Norway. It was the first friendly game after the 2010 World Cup for France and they totally dropped the entire squad that embarrassed them in S. Africa WC2010, with the new manager handing out 6 debuts. Norway came from 1 goal down and won 2-1 at home.

Norway got alot of ranking points for beating Cyprus, apparently Cyprus (boosted by a draw against Portugal and a win against Bulgaria) were 43rd in the world when Norway beat them. It all helped push Norway into the seeds in July 2011.

Then Norway would be a prime example of 'faking it' to boost their rankings and holding a ranking position that was way ahead of their actual football talent. They rose from 60th to 12th in two years, in good time to be first seeds for the 2014 world cup qual draw. And despite getting a dream wc qual group, their ineptitude was finally proven and exposed as they slid further back down the ranking table, altogether from 12th place to 70th.
Switzerland might have gained a place or two above their station, but they still hold a top ranking. In contrast, Norway managed a 48 place leap upwards and next day start the slow 58 place slide down to 70th

FIFA European rankings 2014-15

Team April* August Change
Germany 1 1 0
Belgium 2 3 1
Netherlands 3 2 -1
Portugal 4 7 3
Switzerland 5 5 0
Spain 6 4 -2
France 7 6 -1
Romania 8 16 8
Italy 9 9 0
England 10 12 2

Croatia 11 10 -1
Czechia 12 22 10
Slovakia 13 27 14
Wales 14 26 12
Greece 15 8 -7
Austria 16 25 9
Denmark 17 15 -2
Scotland 18 17 -1
Bosnia 19 11 -8

Russia 20 14 -6
Ukraine 21 13 -8
Poland 22 32 10
Iceland 23 28 5
Sweden 24 18 -6
Ultonia 25 41 16
Hungary 26 21 -5
Serbia 27 19 -8
Israel 28 34 6

Slovenia 29 24 -5
Turkey 30 20 -10
Albania 31 35 4
Ireland 32 33 1
Montenegro 33 29 -4
Bulgaria 34 36 2
Norway 35 30 -5
Armenia 36 23 -13
Finland 37 31 -6

Belarus 38 39 1
Latvia 39 44 5
Estonia 40 40 0
Cyprus 41 48 7
Lithuania 42 45 3
Faeroes 43 51 8
Macedonia 44 38 -6
Azerbaijan 45 37 -8
Moldova 46 43 -3

Liechtenstein 47 50 3
Kazakhstan 48 47 -1
Luxembourg 49 46 -3
Georgia 50 42 -8
Malta 51 49 -2
San Marino 52 53 1
Andorra 53 52 -1
Gibraltar 54 54 0

* provisional

Source:

http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/

Cheers Bill.

My pleasure. We could well be in the same pot after the June games.

Look at Wales, bloody hell. How are we below albania? Although they beat Armenia and we thought we were great for doing that...

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Originally Posted by paul_oshea

Look at Wales, bloody hell. How are we below albania? Although they beat Armenia and we thought we were great for doing that...

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didn't Albania beat Portugal 1-0 at the start of this campaign?
they drew with Denmark also