LOI in Europe 2023

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Originally Posted by oriel

My take on this in in bold .

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Wish I shared your optimism. Avoiding Hacken was great but we'll most likely be playing the Icelandic champions who went out in the 3rd round of the ECL last season and the season beforehand so can win games in Europe. They knocked out Austria Vienna the season before and were beaten in the 3rd round by Aberdeen but managed to score in both ties and only lost both ties by a goal.

It's definitely a winnable tie and I think we should win it, but they'll be looking at the draw favourably as well. They are mid-season and will have 2 CL prelims under their belt as well.

I love Europe but it's absolutely nerve wracking.

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Originally Posted by brendy_éire

Assume not, but even with draw, it's a big ask. I'd be disappointed not to get past Tórshavn, but KuPS is a different story. They're consistently in Europe, and have been in a playoff spot two of the past three years.

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"Candystripes Cope with KuPS in Conference League Cup Competition"

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Originally Posted by oriel

My take on this in in bold

Rovers v Prelim 70% - I'd think more 85 - 90%
Derry v HB 75% - Agree
Dundalk v Bruno's 90% - Not sure about that - Prob 65-70% - the heat out there and afternoon KO ?
Pat's v Dudelange 50% - Fancy Pats, but as mentioned since, Lux football club and national team on the rise big time, they had good 2-0 away win v Bosnia & H during week.
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Jeez Oriel i cant decide whether you are taking the **** or are just beaten down by Dundalks ropey form this season....
Rovers 85-90% to win (probably) against a team that beat Austria Wien and lost by the odd goal to Aberdeen recently but Dundalk are only 65% to 70% to beat a literal pub team :).

I reckon the original percentages are right enough but my nerves makes me worry that its the hope that kills me

As we all know LoI in Europe is pure elation and total despair. We are all scarred so will try to dampen expectation. Dundalk should of course beat Burno's bunch but there is that chink in the armour, of fear that you become the next Bohs v TNS, Longford, S Rovers etc. To lose would be a sackable offense, not that SO'D would be fired but it would be very damaging for him and the club. There is a bit of the fear of the unknown too. 2nd round should be an expected win also tbh. The rest are fine albeit Pats isnt just so straight forward but they thrive in Europe and against better sides - it wouldnt be a massive shock if they did get knocked out but its unlikely especially in the era of no away goals which I dont think benefitted LoI - at least thats the preception.

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Originally Posted by oriel

Almost sure with Dundalk v Bruno's Magpies, its a first LOI v GIB also.

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Yep, Gibraltar is one. Montenegro is the second, and the Faroes is the third.

LoI has played a Faroese club, but never in the Faroes. The only tie was the one-legged Dundalk v KÍ Klaksvík tie in Lansdowne.

What's left is Kosovo and Georgia (the sixth country on my list was actually Ireland... :o)

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

As we all know LoI in Europe is pure elation and total despair. We are all scarred so will try to dampen expectation. Dundalk should of course beat Burno's bunch but there is that chink in the armour, of fear that you become the next Bohs v TNS, Longford, S Rovers etc. To lose would be a sackable offense, not that SO'D would be fired but it would be very damaging for him and the club. There is a bit of the fear of the unknown too. 2nd round should be an expected win also tbh. The rest are fine albeit Pats isnt just so straight forward but they thrive in Europe and against better sides - it wouldnt be a massive shock if they did get knocked out but its unlikely especially in the era of no away goals which I dont think benefitted LoI - at least thats the preception.

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Just on the away goals. The scrapping of this was to Pats advantage last year. We would have been out against Mura, having drawn 1-1 at home and 0-0 away.

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Originally Posted by Philosophizer

Calm down lads, I know we’ve done ok in recent years but some are getting a bit carried away.

I’d never have any LOI side as a 90% to win any European tie, no matter how lowly ranked the opponent may be. 70-75% absolute tops.

If history has taught us anything about Irish football, it’s the hope/expectation that kills you.

Nothing wrong with some quiet confidence but don’t go OTT.

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I meant to expand on my point with the initial percentages that while I make all teams favourites the chances of all 4 progressing at those chances is less the 25%, so a pretty unlikely eventuality still.

Since the introduction of the the ECL and the ECLQ1 being exclusively for the bottom 25 or so leagues or record has been excellent, granted it's only been two years but it suits a league like ours which constantly has different euro participants (i.e unseeded) to not have the big boys in the draw.

Not taking anything for granted but I do think we along with the likes of Finland and the teams to avoid in this first round.

Dundalk have to be bearing the likes of Magpies home and away. They are on par with the Gibraltar national team, Annesley bring the obvious benchmark.

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Originally Posted by oriel

My take on this in in bold .

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C’mon. Better chance to qualify vs Icelandic / montengran champs as opposed to a pretty much pub team?

early let’s save face in case we lose bang off that! No way Dundalk shouldn’t be making R3. “Skip” (can’t believe I said that!) surely can’t survive not winning w rounds after that draw?

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

As we all know LoI in Europe is pure elation and total despair. We are all scarred so will try to dampen expectation. Dundalk should of course beat Burno's bunch but there is that chink in the armour, of fear that you become the next Bohs v TNS, Longford, S Rovers etc. To lose would be a sackable offense, not that SO'D would be fired but it would be very damaging for him and the club. There is a bit of the fear of the unknown too. 2nd round should be an expected win also tbh. The rest are fine albeit Pats isnt just so straight forward but they thrive in Europe and against better sides - it wouldnt be a massive shock if they did get knocked out but its unlikely especially in the era of no away goals which I dont think benefitted LoI - at least thats the preception.

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”Bohs v TNS, Longford S Rovers etc.” .is this Sligo Rovers? They knocked out a Scottish team last year. Why single Bohs v tns? who knocked out Aberdeen around then and good last few yrs?

I think Dundalk could be relegated, finish bottom div1 and a good portion be saying “Skip” is under resourced, not his fault ffs!

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

...especially in the era of no away goals which I dont think benefitted LoI - at least thats the preception.

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One obvious example of the away goals rule benefiting the LOI was in 2016. It meant Dundalk progressed past FH in our first tie. Maybe the group stage journey would never have been, had it gone to penalties instead.

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Originally Posted by TonyD

Just on the away goals. The scrapping of this was to Pats advantage last year. We would have been out against Mura, having drawn 1-1 at home and 0-0 away.

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I don’t think it can be put as simply as that. Pats went into the second leg knowing they didn’t need to go all out attack in need of a goal in normal time and the game plan would’ve taken the new rules into account

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Originally Posted by 2 Year Contract

I don’t think it can be put as simply as that. Pats went into the second leg knowing they didn’t need to go all out attack in need of a goal in normal time and the game plan would’ve taken the new rules into account

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Well, maybe. And of course there is no way of knowing, but on the face of the results we’d have gone out in the past.

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Originally Posted by holidaysong

One obvious example of the away goals rule benefiting the LOI was in 2016. It meant Dundalk progressed past FH in our first tie. Maybe the group stage journey would never have been, had it gone to penalties instead.

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*Cough*My avatar!*cough* :D

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Originally Posted by Knocklyonhoop

”Bohs v TNS, Longford S Rovers etc.” .is this Sligo Rovers? They knocked out a Scottish team last year. Why single Bohs v tns? who knocked out Aberdeen around then and good last few yrs?

I think Dundalk could be relegated, finish bottom div1 and a good portion be saying “Skip” is under resourced, not his fault ffs!

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Did you miss the 'pure elation to total despair' comment? Sligo were beaten by an Albanian side thrying to throw the fixture (Total despair) and beat Motherwell (pure elation). Bohs beat Aberdeen (I was in Tolka Park that night), could have knocked out Kaiserslautern after. lost to 4-0 to TNS a decade later not around then, TNS considerably weaker than they would be now, their 2nd ever win in Europe and still a poor result. Shels losing to Hibs Malta (David Crawleys error) but Scared Deportivo. just for you Knocklyonhoop Flora was an awful result but I even jumped when O'Donnell put you through the against Partizan and Im sure taking the lead in White Hart Line was some moment for Rovers fans. I dont get the relevance of the last sentence - football is all about speculation, opinion, discussion, rivalry. fears, the highs and lows, especially in LoI - its like an addiction or wheres the point!? ffs

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Originally Posted by 2 Year Contract

I don’t think it can be put as simply as that. Pats went into the second leg knowing they didn’t need to go all out attack in need of a goal in normal time and the game plan would’ve taken the new rules into account

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Originally Posted by TonyD

Well, maybe. And of course there is no way of knowing, but on the face of the results we’d have gone out in the past.

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Hence the perception of the impact of the away goal change. It took a fear factor out of the mix and teams sitting in to not concede which is always risky especially playig higher caliber opposition. Now with increased number of teams and competitions that sides can play in especially in the champions pathway sides can have a go and pull off a surprise result. It will be interesting to see how Rovers approach games this year as they gave too much respect to sides previously and when they had nothing to lose like v Slovan or Ludogorats and went at them they showed they could compete and could have won ties.

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Originally Posted by yurt

I meant to expand on my point with the initial percentages that while I make all teams favourites the chances of all 4 progressing at those chances is less the 25%, so a pretty unlikely eventuality still.

Since the introduction of the the ECL and the ECLQ1 being exclusively for the bottom 25 or so leagues or record has been excellent, granted it's only been two years but it suits a league like ours which constantly has different euro participants (i.e unseeded) to not have the big boys in the draw.

Not taking anything for granted but I do think we along with the likes of Finland and the teams to avoid in this first round.

Dundalk have to be bearing the likes of Magpies home and away. They are on par with the Gibraltar national team, Annesley bring the obvious benchmark.

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I'm fully expecting to go through, but they will prob ko at 3pm in Gibraltar, the heat will be a huge factor, wont make it easy there but we should advance.

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Originally Posted by sbgawa

Jeez Oriel i cant decide whether you are taking the **** or are just beaten down by Dundalks ropey form this season....
Rovers 85-90% to win (probably) against a team that beat Austria Wien and lost by the odd goal to Aberdeen recently but Dundalk are only 65% to 70% to beat a literal pub team :).

I reckon the original percentages are right enough but my nerves makes me worry that its the hope that kills me

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No easy games these days SB, that said for this year I am fully expecting all 4 LOI to go through, will let you know about pub team standard after the away game first leg in probable 28c heat!

That said (and I looked it up) we have won 19 games in total in Europe from 90 matches, so should really be looking to add 2 more here, plus more importantly the club coefficient for wins, as draw almost count for nothing.

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Originally Posted by oriel

So should really be looking to add 2 more here, plus more importantly the club coefficient for wins, as draw almost count for nothing.

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The club co-efficient is only calculated on what round you get to. So 2 wins vs. going through on pens won't actually make any difference to Dundalk's co-efficient.

It's only the country co-efficient which is calculated of wins and draws. 1 point for a win, 0.5 for a draw. Then total points divided by teams, in our case 4.

After the first round of fixtures I reckon we could be on 1.625* and well on our way to what I consider to be the new base target of 3.000 in the new format and us getting the benefit of competing in the first round.

*(Dundalk 2W, Derry 1W1D, Pats 1W1D, Rovers 1W1D = 6.5/4 = 1.625)

There is also a club and country coefficient though, and clubs are re-calculated every 5 years or on a 5 year cycle.

Dundalk currently on 8.5 meant we avoided big clubs in 2 rounds (Club Brugge an FC Twentee on same side of mini grouping R2 and avoided), surely the more wins you can rack up and advance through rounds will add to the club coefficient.

The nature of progression does not affect the club coefficient though. i.e. getting two wins in a tie is the same as two draws and advancing on penalties. It's simply the round you get to that is the determining factor.

The individual match results are what determines the country coefficient.

Winning matches in the qualifying rounds means nothing in terms of points for coefficients. Last year rovers got 2.5 points for getting to the group stages. To improve the 2.5 points from there you actually have to get more points for wins /draws (in the group stages) starting from zero. If you win 2 and lose all others you finish on 2 points from counting wins but revert back to 2.5 points as that is higher.
It makes it tough to get a coefficient higher the 12.5 over 5 years as you have to make groups and also probably qualify from the group to get 3 or 3.5 points in any year....Big ask

Didn't realise earlier rounds winning matches meant so little in terms of coefficient, so its more advancement through the rounds then.

Group stage obv diff kettle of fish, but I think only Rovers from the 4 will be heading to that scene.

Here are the full rules (https://www.uefa.com/nationalassocia...country/about/)

Points are awarded as follows:


2 – All wins from group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL)
1 – All wins in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
1 – All draws from group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL)
0.5 – All draws in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
4 – Group stage bonus participation (UCL)
4 – Round of 16 bonus participation (UCL)
4 – Group winners (UEL)
2 – Group runners-up (UEL)
2 – Group winners (UECL)
1 – Group runners-up (UECL)
1 – Each round clubs reach from the round of 16 (UCL, UEL)
1 – Each round clubs reach from the semi-finals (UECL)

This is the club one for Conference league (where we will all end up probably) which makes the point about the 2.5 point minimum for making groups even if you lose every match but also it isnt added on to your total, its the minimum if you lose every match.
Its 2 points for a win (not 1 as i thought) in the group stages so 1 win and a draw would mean your 2023 coeffient would be 3 points. Bit easier

UEFA Europa Conference League points
1 – Awarded to each club eliminated in the first qualifying round
1.5 – Awarded to each club eliminated in the second qualifying round
2 – Awarded to each club eliminated in the third qualifying round??
2.5 – Awarded to each club eliminated in the play-offs
2 – All wins from group stage onwards (except knockout round play-offs)
1 – All draws from group stage onwards (except knockout round play-offs)
2 – Group winners
1 – Group runners-up
1 – Each round clubs reach from the semi-finals
All teams are guaranteed a minimum 2.5 points in the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage (not added to points actually obtained).

The 23/24 season is officially underway so - Budocnost 2-0 up on Escalades of Andorra before halftime in Iceland. Breidablik v Tre Penne at 8 tonight, with the winners playing on Friday and the winners of that playing Rovers in two weeks

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

The 23/24 season is officially underway so - Budocnost 2-0 up on Escalades of Andorra before halftime in Iceland. Breidablik v Tre Penne at 8 tonight, with the winners playing on Friday and the winners of that playing Rovers in two weeks

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Are those games in Iceland all held in the same stadium? Would be a good football nerd trip if they were.

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Originally Posted by EatYerGreens

Are those games in Iceland all held in the same stadium? Would be a good football nerd trip if they were.

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Yep, all 3 games are being played in Breidablik's stadium. No idea how the host venue is chosen though

3-0 Buducnost now with 15 mins to go. Just after noticing that Atletic Escalades played Gzira United last season and narrowly lost 2–1 on aggregate after extra time. Gzira of course face Glentoran this year with the winners playing the winners of Pats/Dudelange. I’m hoping Pats get through and face Glentoran in the second round for bank balance related reasons after having booked the trip to Luxembourg :D

Breidablik beat Tre Penne 7-1 and will play Buducnost on Friday....

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Originally Posted by brendy_éire

Assume not, but even with draw, it's a big ask. I'd be disappointed not to get past Tórshavn, but KuPS is a different story. They're consistently in Europe, and have been in a playoff spot two of the past three years.

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Have you ever won the treble?

Meant to ask about this so many times BE, your footer. Is this just a bit of fun? As you do realise this has been done by LOI teams before on 3 or 4 occasions, Rovers did it at least twice, Bohs once, both clubs LOI / FAI / Shield. This when the latter was a huge trophy.

In 1966 or 67 around the re-opening of oriel, the domestic attendance record is still set (12k) for the Shield Final between Dundalk and Rovers.

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Originally Posted by oriel

Have you ever won the treble?

Meant to ask about this so many times BE, your footer. Is this just a bit of fun? As you do realise this has been done by LOI teams before on 3 or 4 occasions, Rovers did it at least twice, Bohs once, both clubs LOI / FAI / Shield. This when the latter was a huge trophy.

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As far as I know, the LoI didn't exist before 1985. :wink:

Breidablik 2-0 up after 20 minutes, so looking like Iceland for Rovers alright

4-0 now, and still not halftime

Rovers may do well not to underestimate these guys

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

4-0 now, and still not halftime

Rovers may do well not to underestimate these guys

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I'd have them favourites the way we are playing.

12 goals in 2 games not to be taken lightly.

Maybe last year Breidablik had a team that could cause some angst to Rovers but a good few of that team have already departed to other Nordic leagues and now one of their remaining better players is off to Belgium having played his last game this evening (scoring 2). There's that and coupled with the fact that these two beaten teams were the pits, literally, about 3rd division Icelandic league level on a bad day. Blik as they are affectionately known by us locals, have the most respected academy in Iceland, re tradition, quality of coaching and style of football, but fielding a senior league winning team happens just once every some years and that year was last year.
Nevertheless their winning performance in Vienna some years ago was a sight to behold, perhaps Rovers are not yet home and hosed.

Not all that easy for Rovers. Very tricky round

Was surprised the Icelandic champions were in the qualifying round

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Originally Posted by Nah Nah Nah Nah

Was surprised the Icelandic champions were in the qualifying round

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Iceland may have even been ahead of us in the rankings a few years ago.

There is no may, Iceland were ahead of the LOI but dropped down due to various factors, however
as it stands now, they are out well out of the pre qual stage next year.

There's a possible tie between Dundalk and Akureyri (north Iceland) in the offing, only if they both win their 1st round ties. It's not that long ago since Bohs went to Akureyri and got hammered by Thor, a 2nd division side.
I don't know if I have mentioned that before:)