Republic of Ireland V Latvia - Wednesday, 22nd March 2023 - Friendly

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Originally Posted by Demesne Lad

If Kenny was managing France, and had in his squad 3 players from Bayern Munich, 3 from Milan, 2 from Real Madrid and one each from Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Borussia MG, Chelsea, Frankfurt, Liverpool, Lens, Leverkusen, Marseille, Monaco, Nice, Paris SG and West Ham, I'd be expecting him to deliver a comfortable win against Ireland.

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If he was in charge of France against Ireland in 2009, would you expect a comfortable win with this team:

Lloris, Sagna, Gallas, Escude, Evra, Lassana Diarra, Alou Diarra, Gourcuff, Anelka, Gignac, Henry.
Subs: Mandanda, Govou, Benzema, Sissoko, Malouda, Squillaci

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Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

If he was in charge of France against Ireland in 2009, would you expect a comfortable win with this team:

Lloris, Sagna, Gallas, Escude, Evra, Lassana Diarra, Alou Diarra, Gourcuff, Anelka, Gignac, Henry.
Subs: Mandanda, Govou, Benzema, Sissoko, Malouda, Squillaci

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The answer to that frankly is no. That is way, way off their current squad.

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Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

No, it's Kenny's fault we have a tough draw

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Is it though? Seems unfair. We could equally have found ourselves in a group with Hungary, Israel, Greece and Gibraltar where we'd be having a totally different discussion. Would he get credit for that?

We could also have been second seeds if we had performed better in the Nations League. Especially in what was a relatively kind group in the circumstances. That's on Kenny - he absolutely ballsed up the first two games of that campaign in particular (and had another disaster in the last game, albeit we scraped home in that one), and that's why we are where we are now.

Yes, we could have got a kinder group as third seeds. But we could also have removed the issue entirely by performing in the Nations League. It was a case of Kenny's mistakes finally catching up with him unfortunately. Now he needs to figure out a way out of it, and quickly. First step - get a result at home to France.

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Originally Posted by SkStu

Is it though? Seems unfair. We could equally have found ourselves in a group with Hungary, Israel, Greece and Gibraltar where we'd be having a totally different discussion. Would he get credit for that?

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If he got us to second seeds he would have got us a far kinder draw and bucket loads of credit.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

We could also have been second seeds if we had performed better in the Nations League. Especially in what was a relatively kind group in the circumstances.

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Relatively kind group? Ukraine were the highest ranked team overall across League B. Look at the group after us (B2):

1st seed Iceland
2nd seed Russia (2 walkovers)
3rd seed Israel (could have been us)
4th seed Albania

Israel won the group and are now guaranteed a playoff

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Originally Posted by DCWA

The answer to that frankly is no. That is way, way off their current squad.

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Not really and Ireland managed to beat that team in France! So let's not paint this as impossible. They've drawn to Bosnia, Austria, Ukraine, lost to Denmark twice, all within the last couple of years.

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Originally Posted by elatedscum

Relatively kind group? Ukraine were the highest ranked team overall across League B. Look at the group after us (B2):

1st seed Iceland
2nd seed Russia (2 walkovers)
3rd seed Israel (could have been us)
4th seed Albania

Israel won the group and are now guaranteed a playoff

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There was something big going on in Ukraine. You might have heard about it? Scotland won the group. Are they full of superstars? Instead of coming ahead of those 2, we came close to coming behind Armenia. Can anyone list the clubs their players play for?

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

We could also have been second seeds if we had performed better in the Nations League. Especially in what was a relatively kind group in the circumstances. That's on Kenny - he absolutely ballsed up the first two games of that campaign in particular (and had another disaster in the last game, albeit we scraped home in that one), and that's why we are where we are now.

Yes, we could have got a kinder group as third seeds. But we could also have removed the issue entirely by performing in the Nations League. It was a case of Kenny's mistakes finally catching up with him unfortunately. Now he needs to figure out a way out of it, and quickly. First step - get a result at home to France.

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I think we have to keep expectations a bit in check though, no? I took some time to go through the last 8 qualifying rounds to see where we usually fall. Out of the 8, we've been 3rd pot 6 times, once each in the 2nd and 4th pot. While performing better in the NL could have increased our chances, we would have had to have climbed 5 full spots in the rankings. Not many other managers have manage their way up to second ranking over that time period.

Below looks at (L-R) - tournament; seeding/pot; year of assessment; ranking at time of assessment (note that the ranking for Euros is different).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

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Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

If he got us to second seeds he would have got us a far kinder draw and bucket loads of credit.

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You're kind of missing the point I'm making is that the draw itself is luck, not management. Seeding makes a difference but see my note above.

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Originally Posted by elatedscum

Relatively kind group? Ukraine were the highest ranked team overall across League B. Look at the group after us (B2):

1st seed Iceland
2nd seed Russia (2 walkovers)
3rd seed Israel (could have been us)
4th seed Albania

Israel won the group and are now guaranteed a playoff

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"In the circumstances". Ukraine were in the early stages of a war. In addition for the home game they played mostly a second string because they had just played a World Cup playoff. And we got the away leg at a neutral venue. Armenia were utter crap (and we still lost to them) and Scotland are no great shakes either. It was a handy enough group, we should have probably won it, or at an absolute minimum been top 2 with a high points total that would have got us in as second seeds and guaranteed a playoff. Instead it was a complete mess, in particular the first two games and the last one.

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Originally Posted by Razors left peg

Considering we now have the squad now, as much as some want to argue over it, how would ye approach the 2 games?

If it was my choice Id be starting our team for the France game against Latvia and make changes after an hour. The time for experimentation is over, it's sh1t or get off the pot time and we should be trying to get as settled a team as possible in the next few games. I hope we have a bit better luck with injuries this campaign too, it felt like we were always missing a few players last time around.

Moving into match week I'm starting to get excited about the games. I'd love to be flying home for them, it's the one big thing I miss living so far away.

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I wouldn't be too down about it razor, there's lads much closer who don't fly home for it ; )

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Originally Posted by SkStu

I think we have to keep expectations a bit in check though, no? I took some time to go through the last 8 qualifying rounds to see where we usually fall. Out of the 8, we've been 3rd pot 6 times, once each in the 2nd and 4th pot. While performing better in the NL could have increased our chances, we would have had to have climbed 5 full spots in the rankings. Not many other managers have manage their way up to second ranking over that time period.

Below looks at (L-R) - tournament; seeding/pot; year of assessment; ranking at time of assessment (note that the ranking for Euros is different).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*



You're kind of missing the point I'm making is that the draw itself is luck, not management. Seeding makes a difference but see my note above.

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I was saying we got a tough draw because Kenny failed to reach his own expectation of winning the Nations League group. He came nowhere near.

Ive made the same point a few times, i'll give it one more go :)

The draw is happening:
Scenario 1 (Ireland in 3rd pot): Hungary, Israel, Ireland, Greece, Gibraltar
Scenario 2 (Ireland in 2nd pot): Holland, Ireland, Ukraine, Greece, Gibraltar

Which of these would you prefer for qualification purposes? And which of these scenarios would be a matter of credit to the manager v. luck of the draw?

Scotland are second seeds and could well be battling it out with Georgia for third spot in the group.

They're also guaranteed a playoff. And their rivals for second, while I appreciate they have a reasonably well known striker in the squad, haven't qualified for a finals tournament in almost a quarter of a century.

Euro 2020?

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Originally Posted by SkStu

Is it though? Seems unfair. We could equally have found ourselves in a group with Hungary, Israel, Greece and Gibraltar where we'd be having a totally different discussion. Would he get credit for that?

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It's Paddy's Day but I'm not drinking. I might need to drink some to make that sensible : D. Probability and statistics stu

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Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

Not really and Ireland managed to beat that team in France! So let's not paint this as impossible. They've drawn to Bosnia, Austria, Ukraine, lost to Denmark twice, all within the last couple of years.

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Yes, really.

However I do in general agree with the rest of your post. Whilst expecting nothing France do regularly have slip ups in qualifying and I am hoping they are feeling a bit of post WC fatigue… or something like that…

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Originally Posted by paul_oshea

It's Paddy's Day but I'm not drinking. I might need to drink some to make that sensible : D. Probability and statistics stu

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You'll figure it out. I have confidence in you :)

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Originally Posted by SkStu

Ive made the same point a few times, i'll give it one more go :)

The draw is happening:
Scenario 1 (Ireland in 3rd pot): Hungary, Israel, Ireland, Greece, Gibraltar
Scenario 2 (Ireland in 2nd pot): Holland, Ireland, Ukraine, Greece, Gibraltar

Which of these would you prefer for qualification purposes? And which of these scenarios would be a matter of credit to the manager v. luck of the draw?

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Scotland won the group. They are in with Spain, Norway, Georgia and Cyprus. Would you prefer to be in their group?

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Originally Posted by DCWA

Yes, really.

However I do in general agree with the rest of your post. Whilst expecting nothing France do regularly have slip ups in qualifying and I am hoping they are feeling a bit of post WC fatigue… or something like that…

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Put the likely team from 2023 alongside that 09 team. Not as big a gap as you're painting. Fairly even.

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

Euro 2020?

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Norway didn't qualify for Euro 2020, their last finals was Euro 2000.

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

Euro 2020?

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Were Norway at that?

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Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

Put the likely team from 2023 alongside that 09 team. Not as big a gap as you're painting. Fairly even.

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New keeper < Lloris

Kounde/Pavard > Sagna
Upamecano > Gallas (close enough)
Konate > Escude
T Hernandez < Evra (close enough)

Tchoumani > L Diarra
Camavinga > A Diarra

Coman > Anelka (close enough)
Giroud > Gignac
Mbappe > Henry (Thierry was 32, different story 5 years earlier)

Both good teams but not at all even. Escude, Gignac, Alou Diarra - they wouldn’t get anywhere close to the current squad, let alone the first team

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Originally Posted by SkStu

Ive made the same point a few times, i'll give it one more go :)

The draw is happening:
Scenario 1 (Ireland in 3rd pot): Hungary, Israel, Ireland, Greece, Gibraltar
Scenario 2 (Ireland in 2nd pot): Holland, Ireland, Ukraine, Greece, Gibraltar

Which of these would you prefer for qualification purposes? And which of these scenarios would be a matter of credit to the manager v. luck of the draw?

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How can a manager get credit or blame for the luck of the draw.

But I don't really see what the point is that you are making here.

You can get lucky draws or unlucky draws, but dropping down a seed is only bad news. The unlucky draws get more unlucky.

Kenny shares the responsibility for us dropping down a seed and being expoed to more unlucky draws.

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Originally Posted by osarusan

How can a manager get credit or blame for the luck of the draw.

But I don't really see what the point is that you are making here.

You can get lucky draws or unlucky draws, but dropping down a seed is only bad news. The unlucky draws get more unlucky.

Kenny shares the responsibility for us dropping down a seed and being expoed to more unlucky draws.

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In the very first post I quoted earlier from Boom, he blamed the manager for what is, at the end of the day, an unlucky draw. I made the point that I don’t think that’s fair. Luck is luck. If we’d had a luckier draw (e.g. Hungary and Israel) we wouldn’t be giving blame (or credit) for it, nor should we. It’s a draw and sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Did he drop down the seeds? I posted our last 8 seedings a few posts ago (copied below) and it doesn’t appear to me that he/we did drop. We are still third seeds and haven’t been second seeds since 2016 draw (based on 2014 performance).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

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Originally Posted by elatedscum

New keeper < Lloris

Kounde/Pavard > Sagna
Upamecano > Gallas (close enough)
Konate > Escude
T Hernandez < Evra (close enough)

Tchoumani > L Diarra
Camavinga > A Diarra

Coman > Anelka (close enough)
Giroud > Gignac
Mbappe > Henry (Thierry was 32, different story 5 years earlier)

Both good teams but not at all even. Escude, Gignac, Alou Diarra - they wouldn’t get anywhere close to the current squad, let alone the first team

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Even your biased view gives it close to 50/50. And you could have Henry ahead of Coman and Anelka ahead of Giroud. So not really a huge gap between them.

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Originally Posted by SkStu

In the very first post I quoted earlier from Boom, he blamed the manager for what is, at the end of the day, an unlucky draw. I made the point that I don’t think that’s fair. Luck is luck. If we’d had a luckier draw (e.g. Hungary and Israel) we wouldn’t be giving blame (or credit) for it, nor should we. It’s a draw and sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Did he drop down the seeds? I posted our last 8 seedings a few posts ago (copied below) and it doesn’t appear to me that he/we did drop. We are still third seeds and haven’t been second seeds since 2016 draw (based on 2014 performance).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

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But, as has already been pointed out, he blew a golden opportunity to get us a higher seeding from a favourable Nations League group. Therefore he's responsible for us being third seeds, which is what led to the horror draw. You can't just leave that bit out because it doesn't suit your argument!

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Originally Posted by SkStu

In the very first post I quoted earlier from Boom, he blamed the manager for what is, at the end of the day, an unlucky draw. I made the point that I don’t think that’s fair. Luck is luck. If we’d had a luckier draw (e.g. Hungary and Israel) we wouldn’t be giving blame (or credit) for it, nor should we. It’s a draw and sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Did he drop down the seeds? I posted our last 8 seedings a few posts ago (copied below) and it doesn’t appear to me that he/we did drop. We are still third seeds and haven’t been second seeds since 2016 draw (based on 2014 performance).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

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Nope, you're right and I'm wrong. I got it mixed up with NL relegation.

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Originally Posted by SkStu

In the very first post I quoted earlier from Boom, he blamed the manager for what is, at the end of the day, an unlucky draw. I made the point that I don’t think that’s fair. Luck is luck. If we’d had a luckier draw (e.g. Hungary and Israel) we wouldn’t be giving blame (or credit) for it, nor should we. It’s a draw and sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Did he drop down the seeds? I posted our last 8 seedings a few posts ago (copied below) and it doesn’t appear to me that he/we did drop. We are still third seeds and haven’t been second seeds since 2016 draw (based on 2014 performance).

WC 2010 – 3rd pot (2007) – 35
Euro 2012 – 3rd seeds (2009) – 25*
WC 2014 – 3rd seeds (2011) – 33
Euro 2016 – 2nd seeds (2014) – 19*
WC 2018 – 4th seeds (2015) – 42
Euro 2020 – 3rd seeds (2018) – 23*
WC 2022 – 3rd seeds (2020) – 52
Euro 2024 – 3rd seeds (2022) – 26*

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You can call it an unlucky draw if you get a tough draw while second seeds. If you fail to get second seeds by losing to Armenia/coming close to the bottom of your Nations League group, you can't really call it unlucky. Scotland's draw is much better than ours I think you'll agree?

Eirambler - Out of interest, what would we have had to do to become second seeds? Win the NL group? Or something less than that? Just want to understand this golden opportunity.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

Norway didn't qualify for Euro 2020, their last finals was Euro 2000.

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Sorry, thought you meant Scotland

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Originally Posted by SkStu

Eirambler - Out of interest, what would we have had to do to become second seeds? Win the NL group? Or something less than that? Just want to understand this golden opportunity.

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Winning the group or best second placed team would have gotten us a second seeding. Even just the results we got plus beating Ukraine (or more accurately their second team for the most part) at home would have done it. It would have guaranteed a playoff too. The team setup for those first two Nations League games was appalling as well. A massive missed opportunity.

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Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

Even your biased view gives it close to 50/50. And you could have Henry ahead of Coman and Anelka ahead of Giroud. So not really a huge gap between them.

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I went off the formation on Wiki with Anelka playing RW, Henry LW etc

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Originally Posted by SkStu

Eirambler - Out of interest, what would we have had to do to become second seeds? Win the NL group? Or something less than that? Just want to understand this golden opportunity.

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Pretty much. Ukraine finished 2nd and are 3rd seeds

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Originally Posted by elatedscum

I went off the formation on Wiki with Anelka playing RW, Henry LW etc

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Anelka had a free role, coming off the right. Was the best player on the pitch in the home leg

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Originally Posted by osarusan

This is just silly.

France were a 119th minute world class save away from being world champions. They're a side with quality all over the pitch we can only dream of. They are so superior that they could come to Dublin and win by 3 goals and it still wouldn't automatically be a terrible night for Kenny. There could still be positives in defeat. I'd even say the same about the Dutch, albeit to a lesser extent.

The idea that Kenny needs a good result against France isn't one I'd agree with myself. He needs solid performances against the French and the Dutch.

He needs results against Greece and Gibraltar.

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France's elo rating right now is 2082. Ours is 1676. Statistically, us getting a result against France would be comparable to Rawanda or Indonesia getting a result against us. If it happens, Deschamps should be fired. Even in a friendly.

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Originally Posted by John83

France's elo rating right now is 2082. Ours is 1676. Statistically, us getting a result against France would be comparable to Rawanda or Indonesia getting a result against us. If it happens, Deschamps should be fired. Even in a friendly.

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Well Malta aren't that far off Rwanda or Indonesia and we barely scraped past them with a lucky goal.

While the odds are heavily against us winning, it is reasonable to expect this team to be able to make it difficult for France and keep the game close.

Ultimately in this group to be a success for us, I would want 12 pts from Greece and Gibraltar and good displays against NL & FR regardless of the result. That would show progress as a team and put us in good momentum and form should we find ourselves in a playoff

Lads, on that ELO rankings, France are 3rd. Portugal are 5th. We drew with Portugal at home and nearly beat them away in the World Cup campaign. Ok, we had Anthony Barry at that stage but it was under Kenny's reign. Drawing at home to France will take some luck but it really isn't as outlandish as some of you are making it out.

The more relevant fact to take from the Elo ratings is that Portugal are 100 points weaker than France. That's a lot. It close to halves our chances of a draw.

Plus Portugal weren't that bothered about the game in Dublin and left out 4/5 players. But losing and not getting any injuries ahead of Serbia was the key.

We're actually more likely to draw against Latvia than France based on ratings and that would be a pretty crap result.