4 points from Germany, enough said.
We don't need to fear anyone.
We are on the up!
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4 points from Germany, enough said.
We don't need to fear anyone.
We are on the up!
You guys are on top tonight as Conor McGregor wipes the mat with a quality opponent...oh...lord...he won in seconds..
Who??Quote:
Originally Posted by DeLorean
You're gas! ;)
Yea I saw that, had to stay up to watch it and even then it was delayed a further hour, all that for 13 second!Quote:
Originally Posted by Crosby87
I also backed Conner to win by KO or TKO at 5/2, which was a special offer, most other bookmakers
were going 6/4 iirc, nearly all his wins are by KO or TKO, so that seemed better value than 10/11 for a win.
It was over before it started really, those who watch on pay per view must have felt robbed!
Difficult group, but I think we can do better than 2012. Group E also the worst group in which we could have been drawn in the sense it provides the toughest route to the final for all the group qualifiers.
If we win the group, we'll play the runner-up of group D (Spain, Czech Republic, Turkey or Croatia).
If we finish second, we'll play the winner of group F (Portugal, Iceland, Austria or Hungary).
If we finish third and qualify, we'll play either the winner of group A (France, Romania, Albania or Switzerland) or group D.
I'm not too disappointed with the draw. I think it will be great. Belgium flatter to deceive. Wales beat them & drew with them in the qualifying so they definitely can be beaten. Italy have no striker at the moment with only 9 goals between their current 5 strikers. Sweden are very average aside from Zlatan. I think it's possible to pick up points in this group & there will be a lot of twists & turns.
Yeah, I agree. I think it's a draw that once you get over the initial shock factor and break it down, there's plenty to be optimistic about. There were better draws for sure but I quite like our group. It's going to be very tough to qualify but that was always going to be the way.
I think Greece would have went into Euro 2004 with similar thoughts of "oh crap, Portugal, Spain and Russia".
Didn't work out too badly for them.
For getting out of the group, I think we got a middling group. I'd rate Slovakia, Poland and Czech rep better than Sweden. Imo, Wales, NI and Turkey have a harder task than us.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Our route to the final is another matter. I wonder how it will go in the French camp, will there be more disruptions and will the country rally around to support them?
They were tardy at WC 1998, even the president Chirac waited until the final before he dared to don the scarf.
Im surprised with the negative reaction to the group. We were fourth seeds after all!!
I possibly wouldve preferred England or Portugal but Belgium is not bad at all. You certainly would give us a fighting chance against them, particularly if a few of their key players continue their form and injury difficulties. I wanted to avoid France, Germany and Spain first and foremost.
The second seed draw is definitely the worst. However, on paper this is not a very impressive Italian side, particularly going forward. But the Italians somehow always manage to get the job done. We might get a draw against them.
Sweden is the big one. Not a bad draw either. I watched them in the play offs and while they were impressive in patches, Ibra was really the difference between the two teams. It will be critical to keep him quiet. Going to be such a massive game to start the Euros as if we lose that then it would be very very difficult to see us qualifying.
From the other seeds point of view, Im sure we were far from their first choices from pot 4.
Frankly, I am just delighted to be at the Euros and here on in will be a bonus and surely it cant be as bad as 2012. I know Roy Keane would not be impressed with that view but it is reflective of the quality we have in our squad. I do hope we maintain the upward trajectory over the last few months and who knows then come next summer.
That's word for word how I feel too, except I'm quite happy to have avoided England for some reason.
My opinion on how good or bad teams are has been rubbished thanks to Bosnia, but for what it's worth, I think we're not too badly off with our lot. Before Italy were drawn I was extremely positive, so probably no point in getting too worked up by them. Pot 3 is very beatable across the board, so it didn't particulary bother me, but I think we've done well with Sweden. Zlatan aside, they are a very ordinary side. The only, and it's very small, worry I'd have is that we play them in his new current city, and it might work in Sweden's favour considering he's an idol over there.
As for Pot A and B, I look at these things in the split, top three to avoid, and the three you'd be ok with getting:
For me avoiding Spain, France and Germany in the top pot, Italy, Russia and Ukraine in B. I don't think Belgium have been awesome for the collection of players they have. They were never in danger of missing out, but they didn't overawe any either during qualifying. The pressure will be on them to produce, and it will be interesting to see how they do first up against Italy. Get a win, and it could springboard their campaign; don't win and they are under pressure immediately.
Italy are just too unpredicatable. A normal qualifying campaign for them. Domestic league struggling, not really comparable to the german, spanish or english clubs for the level of player, all looks good for us. That is normally the ingredients for a dogged Italian tournament.
Very exciting all the same.
I think Italy as second seeds is a kicker.Quote:
Originally Posted by elroy
Have the group as, say, Belgium, Switzerland and Sweden and there wouldn't be the same comments, even given our awful record against the Swiss.
It's a tough group, but not as bad as 2012. But sure let's see how it goes.
I think we have a chance, it's a small chance but it was always going to be that. 2012 required two major and one minor miracle from the off, this group doesn't quite call for that and we are in better shape going in also, there's is more to us in terms of adapting how we set up for different opponents for a start. It will be very fine margins I feel, and the smart money is probably on a group stage return home, but only just. Even if this transpires, I am confident it wont be in the manner of 2012, and that, coupled with the group we managed to come out of to get there, victories in must win games against bigger reputations, represents progress.
And I cannot wait for it. Great times.
Six months ago we only had a small chance of making the playoffs, let alone actually qualify. Great times indeed!Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
I agree, and a sell out Stade de France game against Sweden with the hordes of green and yellow fans will be fantastic. I can't wait to get my rubber hammer out :) Can we all hum along to the Swedish anthem though?Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
I wasn't allowed bring my plastic hammer into the stadium in Poznan, in case I used it as a weapon!
The only weapons ye two, would be able use, or know how to use would certainly be made of plastic.
The lads from YBIG never get their hammers taken off them.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
A small chance? I'd say it's either green or yellow, we have a 50/50 to come out winners against Sweden and that would be enough, either enough to be a good third or enough to have the momentum to scrap for one draw elsewhere. And there's actually not that much difference in the quality of the possible last 16 opponents for the group e qualifiers.Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
There are three possible result scenarios; a green win, a yellow win or a draw. Therefore to say it's either green or yellow, or we have a 50/50 chance to come out winners against Sweden would be incorrect.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
To say that "there is actually not much difference in the quality of possible last 16 opponents" is actually a wild generalisation, a subjective opinion lacking in factual basis.
Yeah at best we have a 33% chance of beating Sweden really. There are many that will give us close to no chance against Belgium and Italy, so to say we've only a small chance of going through is a reasonable enough opinion I think. I'd be slightly more hopeful than that maybe but not much, we are up against it. I think we can get at point from Belgium and/or Italy though so a win against Sweden would definitely do the trick in that scenario. It's got 1-1 written all over it though :)
http://foot.ie/attachment.php?attachmentid=2371&stc=1
Hi,
Feedback from the competition. Took this from 'Het Laatste Nieuws' the most popular paper here in Flanders. Just thought some of you would like to see what they think of us.The first part speaks about the Irish bears and that the Belgians are going to need a 'breaking device' if they are going to break us down. For what we lack in footballing ability this is where we are strongest, according to the Belgians.
The next part speaks about our players. The first part they mention is that there no possible comparison between their players and our players. The say that (unlike all of their players) none of our players are playing at the 'top' of the premier league and that 'most' of our players are playing in the 'second league' in England. They mention about John O'Shea playing 12 years for Man U (but has since left) and that our top striker Robbie Keane and the fact that he only scored 5 goals for us recently 'sums them up really'
The last section on the right says 'So where are they are danger to us' - Well, it says, ask the Germans! They then go and discuss that it is the decision of MON and Roy Keane to stick 9/10 men behind the ball in each game and that when 'we' play against 'them' we can expect that Ireland will do the same. This tactic coupled with long ball will be difficult for the more technical Belgians. A good performance from Hazard/De Bruyne/Mertens should be sufficient to break this ultra-defensive tactic down and once this has been achieved they will be nothing standing in our way.
I like it. Give 'em enough rope I say. Give 'em enough rope.
Sure we'll win it, no bother.
If you were prepared to offer 3/1 on Ireland beating Sweden, then I'd wager you would be subject to an avalanche of offers, even Tricky might be tempted to break his bank (60 cents).Quote:
Originally Posted by DeLorean
6/4 or 5/4 would be more accurate. Both teams know a draw is féck all use and both teams will be targetting 3 points and will not settle for a point. And in that scenario I'd say we have a 50% chance of beating Sweden. If you only think we have a 1/3 chance of beating Sweden, that equates to having a very low opinion of our team or/and inflated opinion of Sweden. 3 points might well be enough to get through. Getting a point either from Italy or Belgium is something that can happen in gritty circumstances.
33% chance = 2/1 in betting parlance, no?
2/1 against means one chance in three positive, two chances in three negative :)
50% chance = evens
I have explained my reasoning on my 50/50 prediction, which makes more football sense than your maths :)Quote:
Originally Posted by ifk101
My opinion is based on viewing likely group e opponents, Czech Republic/Croatia, Portugal or France over a period of time.Quote:
To say that "there is actually not much difference in the quality of possible last 16 opponents" is actually a wild generalisation, a subjective opinion lacking in factual basis.
All my opinions are subjective and these opinions are based on the fact that I have viewed them in play. If you want scientific football facts, then Charlie is the man.
I opine that we will have to wait until the tournament is over in order to have facts.
I've said nothing about betting odds, one doesn't necessarily translate to the other, well not in the way you have presented it anyway. 3/1 would be generous for an Ireland victory, but that has zero to do with what I said. My logic is that ourselves and Sweden are fairly evenly matched, they may be slightly better because of their one world class player. There are three possible outcomes in the game: Ireland win 33.33%, draw 33.33%, Sweden win 33.33%. That would be assuming we are completely even in terms of our chances.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
Yes but that's just a nonsense scenario where you have removed a draw as a possibility to justify your point. A draw is a huge possibility. Just because both teams want to win doesn't mean that one of them will. The last thing either will want is a defeat.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
No it doesn't. I think we have a one in three chance because they are two evenly matched teams with three possible outcomes. I think we have (at best) a 2/3 chance of not losing the match, which sounds much better. Sweden only have a 1/3 chance of winning too so how is my opinion of them inflated and my opinion of us very low?Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
Yep, 2/1 means a 33% chance of winning, so De Lorean would not be offering 3/1 on Ireland winning and Tricky would be hesitating.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
You conjured that 3/1 figure out of thin air.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
Mathematically correct, but chances in football odds do not follow such logic, they are affected by a myriad of factors.Quote:
Originally Posted by DeLorean
I did not remove the possibility of a draw, I lessened the value of that possibility.Quote:
Yes but that's just a nonsense scenario where you have removed a draw as a possibility to justify your point. A draw is a huge possibility. Just because both teams want to win doesn't mean that one of them will. The last thing either will want is a defeat.
I lessened its value because my football opinions (being better than my maths) at this time do not agree that a draw is a huge possibility, far from it.
I would however concur that a draw would be a huge possibility in other circumstances
You are correct and that means you have a less low opinion of our chances of beating Sweden and a less inflated opinion of their chances of beating us, than I first thought.Quote:
No it doesn't. I think we have a one in three chance because they are two evenly matched teams with three possible outcomes. I think we have (at best) a 2/3 chance of not losing the match, which sounds much better. Sweden only have a 1/3 chance of winning too so how is my opinion of them inflated and my opinion of us very low?
So how do we have a 50% chance? Unless you are saying that we are better than Sweden, the other 50% must be made up of a potential Sweden victory and a draw, seeing as you haven't removed it as a possibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
Just one fairly recent example I can think of is Iran v Nigeria in their opening game at the WC. With Bosnia and Argentina being the other teams in the group I'm sure both would have sighted that as a game they really needed to win. They played out a 0-0 borefest. As it turned out, Nigeria beat Bosnia in their next game anyway but you get the point. Not losing will be the priority, I'd be surprised if MON doesn't mention that himself. Do you really see us going gung-ho?Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
Ah look what I have started, all I wanted was to shine a gentle light of positive possibility and now look at us lunatics :)
I'm not going unless I know exactly what chance we have! (To the nearest decimal point obviously)
Just having a look at the three times the same format applied in the World Cup (i.e. 1986-1994).Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
It's interesting that no third placed team ever qualified with just one win (and two defeats). Of course, this was at a time when there were only two points on offer for a win.
If the current criteria applied Hungary would have made the knock-out stage in 1986 with their sole victory, as it would have bettered Bulgaria and Uruguay's two draws and a defeat.
Austria and Scotland missed out in 1990, both recording one win and two defeats. This was bettered by the third placed teams in all of the other groups. Under the current criteria of three points for a win, they would have still been knocked out, on goal difference as they would have been level on points with Netherlands, who drew their three matches (like ourselves).
Three points for a win was in place for the 1994 competition, where Russia missed out having recorded one win and two defeats. Again, no team went through win just one win and nothing else.
I reckon there's a bigger chance we'll be eliminated with just one win than go through. GD could be crucial too.
http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/...77/952/a7b.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by DeLorean
AIB taking heat for loaning Irish fans money to make it to Euro 16. Tricky borrowed at 22.5%.
http://www.independent.ie/business/a...-34294987.html
They haven't loaned any money at all. They are just offering loans. Like a bank does. God I hate the fupping Indo. I also hate AIB, but the Indo more right now.