Unemployment

It is stupid for the government to claim this is all external factors (I am sure I heard Lenihan say that?) but obviously as a small open economy with rise & fall with global economy.

Suggesting we back at 1980 style recession is idiotic in the extreme. We are predicted to top 7% unemployment which is a long way off 20%. We might have a lot of people signing on now but we also probably working off double the work force.

I think it is interesting that the government now says they will reduce deficit by making savings to existing projects. Why could they not make these savings when they were throwing billions at every other problem.

I don't have any confidence the government can stop thew slide. Might be best they sat out of this one as will probably make it worse.

Any one else think the Department of Finance are hopeless at estimates? When we had budget surpluses they regularly misses estimates by billions. It also seems like Dept of Finance & government action only started post ESRI report - could they not see reduced tax revenue themselves?

Great article in one of yesterdays papers expressing surprise that Central Bank Governor John Hurley voted for an interest rate rise in the last ECB meeting.

Then mentioned in the body of the article that ECB board members are specifically required to ignore national interest and vote for the collective interest of the Euro-zone members.

Almost as funny as the editor of some Irish Property magazine which has gone into receivership expressing surprise that publishers "don't want to touch anything with property in the name"..... Well I never.

Anyway, getting back to the topic, whilst the Government can't affect things in the short-term, the decisions they make in the next few months will define how long and how deep the recession lasts and how well positioned we will be to take advantage of any recovery.

I can't say I have much confidence they'll make the right calls.

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Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

I can't say I have much confidence they'll make the right calls.

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Good point but does anyone on here or in the rags we call newspapers think about putting up solutions instead of problems. The problems are easy to see. The solutions are the difficult part but as yet I have not seen a sensible comment other than a "cutback in public spending".

This reminds me of the (open?) goal that Enda Kenny declined to shoot into in the leaders' debate before the last election. Bertie stated how they had reacted after September 11 to keep the economy on course; it was a simple question Enda had to ask - how? What specifically did they do to react? Maybe Bertie would have had a good answer, facts he could point to, maybe not - but I wanted the question to be asked.
It was people's faith in FF's stewardship of the economy that won the election.

I fear that neither Cowen or Lenihan are men of vision, I think Cowen is just plain cautious his diddering over the stamp duty issue in recents budgets is a case in point, Lenihan actually scared me with his self-pitying remarks about how unfortunate he was to be in charge during the onset of recession -time will tell but these are ominous portents!:(

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Originally Posted by Reality Bites

I fear that neither Cowen or Lenihan are men of vision, I think Cowen is just plain cautious his diddering over the stamp duty issue in recents budgets is a case in point, Lenihan actually scared me with his self-pitying remarks about how unfortunate he was to be in charge during the onset of recession -time will tell but these are ominous portents!:(

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Ahern for all his strengths could hardly be described as a man of vision. One of his biggest faults was dithering & obsession with consensus. However in these times can be as much about what you say against what you do & Ahern would get high marks in that department.

Ye gods, a post by pete in CA that I (mostly) agree with! ;)

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Originally Posted by pete

It is stupid for the government to claim this is all external factors (I am sure I heard Lenihan say that?) but obviously as a small open economy with rise & fall with global economy.

Suggesting we back at 1980 style recession is idiotic in the extreme. We are predicted to top 7% unemployment which is a long way off 20%. We might have a lot of people signing on now but we also probably working off double the work force.

I think it is interesting that the government now says they will reduce deficit by making savings to existing projects. Why could they not make these savings when they were throwing billions at every other problem.

I don't have any confidence the government can stop thew slide. Might be best they sat out of this one as will probably make it worse.

Any one else think the Department of Finance are hopeless at estimates? When we had budget surpluses they regularly misses estimates by billions. It also seems like Dept of Finance & government action only started post ESRI report - could they not see reduced tax revenue themselves?

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Originally Posted by pete

Suggesting we back at 1980 style recession is idiotic in the extreme.

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It isn't yet, but this is just the first year of it. That's where we're heading.

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We are predicted to top 7% unemployment which is a long way off 20%. We might have a lot of people signing on now but we also probably working off double the work force.

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So 7% is not a crisis then?? :confused: :rolleyes:

There is, sorry was, sorry has been an increase in the workforce, but they're been let go. Then there's workers employed from pre-boom times also let go as long-established companies re-locate/close. Then there's high inflation, and high salaries, which leads to more job losses. We're now out of the "full employment" category.

There are approximately 20 workdays in every month. Last month, 19,000 jobs were lost. Atm, there are almost 1,000 jobs lost every day. At what point does the rapidly deteriorating situation become a crisis??:confused:

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Originally Posted by mypost

It isn't yet, but this is just the first year of it. That's where we're heading.



So 7% is not a crisis then?? :confused: :rolleyes:

There is, sorry was, sorry has been an increase in the workforce, but they're been let go. Then there's workers employed from pre-boom times also let go as long-established companies re-locate/close. Then there's high inflation, and high salaries, which leads to more job losses. We're now out of the "full employment" category.

There are approximately 20 workdays in every month. Last month, 19,000 jobs were lost. Atm, there are almost 1,000 jobs lost every day. At what point does the rapidly deteriorating situation become a crisis??:confused:

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I'm not sure why I'm responding as you seem unwilling to accept that the only thing the situation now and in the 80s have in common is high unemployment.

One key difference is that many of those now not in employment have earned a bucketload of money over the last 10 years. I'm referring particularly to anyone involved in construction. Yes, its a sweeping generalisation, yes, its not true in all cases but compared with the 80's when the unemployed were long term unemployed, with no savings, no property and no future in Ireland, there's a hell of a difference.

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Originally Posted by mypost

So 7% is not a crisis then?? :confused: :rolleyes:

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It should be pointed out that we are not at 7% yet & massive difference to 15-20%. I think some one mentioned in other thread that the 1980s really were a depression whereas it is likely we will have a 1-2 year (2 years seems to the way these cycles go) recession this time.

I still think it is debatable if it is a crisis. I get the impression that unemployment is mainly construction lead (correct me if I am wrong) but with obvious knock on affects on public finances. With any construction dip/crash/drop it has to hit a bottom eventually. The rising cost of money (mortgages) & energy (oil) is largely out of our control in the short term.

While they have not released the details yet seems the only government response is to cut spending (Health & Education to be left alone) in effort to reduce loses & hope the global tide rises in a couple of years. Public debt is very low (22.8% of GDP 2006 est.) by comparison to other countries (Germany 66.8% 2006 est) so can afford to borrow for a while.

if we can get to January 2009 without Bush starting another war then i think there'll be a quick recovery in confidence in 2010, maybe not to pre-2007 levels but at least a stabilising of stock and credit markets which have suffered from zero leadership in the White House as the lame duck sees out his last year of failure. The reason for ireland's woes are the same as everyone else - high interest rates. the reason for high interest rates is high inflation, the reason for high inflation is the high price of oil, and the reason for the high price of oil is Bush threatening a war with Iran since 2004/2005 so nobody knows whether there'll be a real oil crisis and a new middle east war... that's why speculators are pushing the price up, and with good reason. Until America stops threatening to start world war 3 with 80 million Persians, there'll be no economic recovery.

Is there two Ruben Sosa's now? Cause this guy is far more coherant than his Amy Winehouse loving counterpart*

Plus he's join date and post count are different, but it was mostly the reasoned points that gave it away :0

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Originally Posted by ruben_sosa

if we can get to January 2009 without Bush starting another war then i think there'll be a quick recovery in confidence in 2010,.

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Must get me some Haliburton shares as insurance policy. :p

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Originally Posted by pete

It should be pointed out that we are not at 7% yet & massive difference to 15-20%. I think some one mentioned in other thread that the 1980s really were a depression whereas it is likely we will have a 1-2 year (2 years seems to the way these cycles go) recession this time.

I still think it is debatable if it is a crisis. I get the impression that unemployment is mainly construction lead (correct me if I am wrong)

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The recession is already here for the past 12 months, and may well be another 5 years before it begins to level off. Reports indicate that the losses last month were equally split between men and women. Relatively few women work in construction. The layoffs are down to numerous factors across all sectors of the economy, not restricted to property and construction. That's a flag of convenience for those who don't realise how stark the situation is.

mypost, please go to Wikipedia or another reference and research recession before you make statements in here. In particular the generally accepted definition of the word.

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Originally Posted by jebus

Is there two Ruben Sosa's now? Cause this guy is far more coherant than his Amy Winehouse loving counterpart*

Plus he's join date and post count are different, but it was mostly the reasoned points that gave it away :0

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yes there's two. I registered the name a long time ago, not sure who the blow-in is, but his location is/was given as "downtown bogota" which isn't even in Ruben Sosa's country of birth, Uruguay. :confused:

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Originally Posted by mypost

The recession is already here for the past 12 months, and may well be another 5 years before it begins to level off. Reports indicate that the losses last month were equally split between men and women. Relatively few women work in construction. The layoffs are down to numerous factors across all sectors of the economy, not restricted to property and construction. That's a flag of convenience for those who don't realise how stark the situation is.

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A lot of the job losses are property related, given that a significant part of our economy was property driven. E.g. if a catering business that supplies builders with breakfast rolls closes down and lays people off due to a drop in customers caused by less building work, then this is clearly indirectly a result of the property downturn. Likewise, estate agents and many other property service companies have been hit, all of which employ women. So only counting the number of builders claiming unemployment significantly underestimates the impact the property slowdown is having.

Whilst the competitiveness of export businesses has been repeatedly dented over the past 5 years due to the increasing cost base in Ireland and exchange rates, this isn't a recent phenomena. There have been ongoing layoffs for the last few years in export led businesses. This therefore doesn't explain the rise in unemployment in the last 6 months.

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Originally Posted by mypost

Last month, 19,000 jobs were lost. Atm, there are almost 1,000 jobs lost every day.

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Was it 19k jobs lost, or did 19k more people sign on? Do you know what month it was?

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Originally Posted by GavinZac

Was it 19k jobs lost, or did 19k more people sign on? Do you know what month it was?

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I suspect 19k signed on? Some would be jobs lost but not all them.

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Originally Posted by pete

I suspect 19k signed on? Some would be jobs lost but not all them.

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A very large would be part of the 60,000 finishing their leaving and the countless thousands finishing uni like myself. There isn't a whole lot of anything going this month so not very much option to do much else. Usually figures given for the summer are "seasonally adjusted" before people go making points about them.