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So Tets, if we manage 2 away draws against Slov and the Czechs then beat Germany Wales and Cyprus we are cast iron bankers for 2nd spot.
Out of those results, even if we lose to Slovakia, we are relegated to just being red hot favs for the 2nd spot.
Better than I thought.
If we are anywhere near qualification, I think it will always take us beating Wales to nail it at the end. Instead of pigs flying maybee Stan will be able to articulate by then.
I think we're going to need at least 23 points
here's a quick breakdown of the green squares.
Ignoring the red squares for the time being
which gives an average of 23.08 pointsCode:Points Occurs
Ireland 19 6
Ireland 20 24
Ireland 21 45
Ireland 22 59
Ireland 23 84
Ireland 24 51
Ireland 25 35
Ireland 26 36
Ireland 28 9
Obviously the chances of qualifying with 19 points are slim, and the chances of getting 26 points or more are as slim. Going back to Stutts' original post, I don't think 22 points will be enough, I reckon 23 is the minimum we should be aiming for.
The biggest assumptions I've taken in the table is that Germany will beat the Czechs away and that Ireland will beat Cyprus, but to include them would have made the table 9 times bigger, and its tough enough to read as it is.
Heart says we'll win all before us and not just qualify but win the bloody thing. Head says lets get a new manager. We've had an absolutely miserable campaign but then we got 6 points (at home) to (crappy teams) and suddenly 5-2 in Cyprus is looked upon as a blip. We're a bit **** and need a decent manager.
So drop a euro on it. Everyone was probably saying the same thing 4 years ago with Greece. Whats the worst that can happen, you lose a euro?Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilMcD
ever hear of a betting exchange? Back Ireland for 10 yoyos at 150/1 and lay them for 10 at 60/1 when they qualify. Free bet with €855 riding on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilMcD
Or lay them for 25 at 60/1 and you get a guaranteed €14.25 on any team that wins.
Just want to clarify, if we end up tied with the Czechs, does it come down to head-to-heads ya?? And if we're still tied after that (i.e. two draws) does it come down to away goals in the two matches??
23 means 10 points from 5 games. Would that mean we'd qualify with
3 points from Cyprus at home
3 points from Wales away
3 points from Slovaks away
1 point from Czechs away
Lose to Germany at home
Not sure what's unachievable here, the 3 points vs the Slovaks is probably the biggest ask
This weeks results have certainly gone our way, Wales drawing with Czech and Germany beating Slovakia last night. Also no doubt the minimum points required will be 22 but possibly 23.
Having checked the bible of tets' site!
23 in the way I posted above would do in all circs unless Czechs beat Slovaks and Cypriots which I guess is likely. If we are to beat one on czechs/Slovaks and raw with the other it would of course be best to beat Czechs!
We're in a good situation. It's in our hands at least. If we were offered this position after the Cyprus game I'm sure we would have taken it. I said months ago on this board that Staunton gets bits of luck that some of his predecessors didn't get. I'm not saying we'll definitely qualify but the momentum now seems to be with you. We usually get one good result in competitive double headers:
1999 beat Yugoslavia (h) lost Croatia (a) beat Malta (a)
2000 drew Portugal (a) beat Estonia (h)
2001 beat Iran (h) lost Iran (a)
2003 beat Georgia (a) drew Albania (a)
2004 drew France (a) beat Faroes (h)
So history suggests we should pick up 3 points from one of the games. I know of the list above only one of the wins is away but we're going to have to break that hoodoo of 20 years sometime. Maybe Staunton has the luck to do it.
anyone else have a feeling that this could come down to goal difference?
No because it can't. It goes down to head to head if two teams are tied on points.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bungle
I think we are capable of beating Slovakia and Wales away. We have far better players than both. What we've lacked in the past is a cutting edge away from home upfront, relying on Keane to score all our goals for us. Now with the emergence of Doyle and a few of the other young strikers (possibly one of Long, Stokes or Sheridan will be decent next season) we should at least have some goals in the team and not have to resort to bringing Gary Doherty on to grab us a win in the last 15 mins.
I do think we'll struggle though to get anything from the Czechs away and we probably won't beat Germany at home who don't seem to be bothered whether they are playing at home or away, they get similar results in either case (possibly their away results have been better tbh). The Czechs willl struggle to beat the Cypriots though but might scrape a win. It would be nice for the Cypriots to at least get a draw out of that game. The Czechs should also beat Slovakia I reckon (who are very, very ordinary against decent opposition) but lose against Germany.
I worry though how we'll cope without Duff our best outfield player IMO.
PS
Tets why didn't you do a little drop down combo box interactive results page? It would have saved you loads of time. And everyone could have entered each of their own predicted results and see how things went. Ah well you must have had your reasons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by youngirish
I think that Daryl Murphy and Keogh are much further up the pecking order than Sheridan is and in my view are better at this stage. I will bet you that Sheridan will not be in any full Ireland squad during the Euro 2008 campaign.
I think Sheridan has a good chance of playing regularly for Celtic in the latter part of the SPL season next year if you look at how quickly he's progressed this season. If this is the case he'll be looked at by Staunton. Murphy is pretty average and will more than likely struggle next season in the Premiership. As for Keogh while talented he will still be playing in the Championship by the Euros and he's quite similar to a number of our other strikers while Sheridan offers something different.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilMcD
And if after the head to head teams are still tied (i.e. two draws between ourselves and the czech republic) does it come down to away goals??Quote:
Originally Posted by youngirish
Sorry bout repeating myself from post 66 but nobody gave me a definite answer!!
The Germans have already beaten the Czechs away.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
The big game for us is the Czechs away, a draw is the minimum result needed.
Realistically you can dump those equations that include us losing there.
Frankly I'm not sure where all this optimism comes from. I can'y help feeling it is misplaced, with very little evidence to suggest a revival.
The Welsh game was awful, they did not even turn up. 1-0 is nothing to feel pleased about or indeed to build any confidence on.
We did our best (especially Quinn) to give Slovakia a draw, they really should have scored twice in the last few minutes.
The win against San Marion is an embarrassment. Rather undeserved.
The home Czech game was something of a must win - yet the draw was treated like a victory.
I can't see us beating Germany at home, given our struggles against far weaker teams.
On top of that we have lost Duff for the next few months, have a weak midfield & a clueless manager. I do agree he has been lucky to date though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paddy Garcia
I agree with this
Never seen Sheridan so not commenting on the lad but IMO the standard in the championship is far superior to that in the SPL (Celtic/Rangers excepted) so Keogh will be playing against much tougher defencesQuote:
Originally Posted by youngirish
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
I'd generally agree but I'd suggest Celtic and Rangers players are generally better quality than the majority of players playing in the Championship. Whatever the relative quality of the Championship and the SPL I'd imagine Staunton will more readily choose a player playing regularly for Celtic than for one of the Championship teams though I realise O'Dea still hasn't got a cap (McGeady was capped by Kerr quite quickly).