Premier & First Division Predictions - 2024

I think this year will be the biggest / widest gulf in standards for the top 3, Rovers / Derry / Pats (seems to be most popular choices), and the rest since possibly 2014-2018 when it was Dundalk and Cork City and the rest.

This top 3 seem light years ahead and have euro monies too, Shels have europe but not the money earned yet, but I`m not sure they are that better than clubs looking to settle in mid table.

Should be a very interesting season ahead, top 3 will be step ahead of most thats obvious, but the focus will be on the middle group, who can make a case for 4th, and who can steer clear of trouble, plus obviously someone has to finish 10th too, a poor run of opening games and said club can get dragged down quickly.

Not sure I'm looking forward to next Fri, Rovers away, in betting terms thats a -1 win for Rovers (to win by 2), and could be a tough gig, but you got to play these games, no hiding places.

Premier Division
1 Rovers
2 Derry
3 Shels
4 Pats
5 Drogs
6 Bohs
7 Galway
8 Dundalk
9 Waterford
10 Sligo

First Division
1 Cork
2 Wexford
3 UCD
4 Treaty
5 Longford
6 Bray
7 Harps
8 Cobh
9 Athlone
10 Kerry

First manager sacked: O’Donnell or Russell
Top scorer: Hoban
Cup: Derry

Premier Division
1 Shamrock Rovers. Should be too strong for everyone although a lot will depend on how injury free Farrugia and Clarke stay as they're still very reliant on them.
2 St Patricks Athletic. I think we've enough to overtake Derry with our new signings. Think we lack the quality in one or two positions to really challenge Rovers tho.
3 Derry City. I'm not sure if they improved since last year with Hoban looking in decline last season imo. Kelly is good at his best but is inconsistent. Connolly is a year older aswell and he's a very important piece of their defence.
4 Shelbourne. Jarvis is a very important signing for them and they won't lose very often. But without Moylan I think they're attack is weaker and they will draw too many matches to really challenge for a top 3 finish.
5 Dundalk. Lots of unknowns here but if they click they could be a very dangerous side. However O'Donnells transfer record with players from the UK is inconsistent and the likes of Boyle and Benson need to improve on what they've shown last season.
6 Bohemians. Similar to Dundalk but their outgoings are more damaging with Afolabi a huge loss. Lack of depth in defence could be a problem also. Still think they will go through periods of good form and they've enough midfield quality so they will be nowhere near the relegation spots.
7 Drogheda. Keeley is a big loss but I think they should be solid enough to stay clear of the relegation spots. Pierrot and Kearney are intriguing signings plus they've done very well with their Lincoln loan signings the last few seasons.
8 Galway United. Dominant last season in the 1st division but their transfers haven't stood out and it remains to be seen how effective their style of player will be in the Premier Division.
9 Sligo Rovers. If Mata does rejoin they've a better chance of finishing higher up but bar McGinty it's a weak squad currently.
10 Waterford FC. Some useful signings but still a core of players there who were well behind Galway last season. Think it will be tight at the bottom but I'm not sure if Waterford have improved enough to avoid last.

First Division
1 Cork City. Only full time team and made some solid signings. Should be enough to win the league.
2 UCD. Always hard to know what you'll get from a relegated UCD side but I don't think the rest of the first division is that good so with the talent pool they usually have they should be enough for 2nd.
3 Athlone Town. Lots of unknowns especially with Pierrot gone. But they've kept some of their impressive players and the rest of the division is weak so that one or two good players in the inflow may be enough to get a playoff spot.
4 Wexford. Too many question marks over their defence for them for me to rank them higher but should make playoffs.
5 Treaty United. Usually in playoff contention and I think they've signed well enough to get there again.
6 Bray Wanderers. Defensively should be good but I don't think they'll score enough.
7 Longford Town. Similar to Bray but with even less quality.
8 Finn Harps. Last year was a disaster and they should be better this season but not enough to get into the playoffs. I don't think they'll be very much between 3rd and 9th so it could all be divided by a few points.
9th Cobh Ramblers. Excellent last season but some huge losses in the off season.
10 Kerry. Will be more competitive and will get more wins but hard to see them outside of last place.

WNL- Peamount were something of a surprise winner last season. I think Shamrock Rovers will push them much closer this time. Athlone and Wexford should be much better in the league this season so it should be a competitive title race.

First Manager Sacked- Divine
Top Scorer- Gaffney
FAI Cup- St Patricks

Might as well have a go, I do enjoy looking at how badly I get it wrong after each season! I think there's huge pressure on the managers at Bohs, Derry and Dundalk, and the longer Stephen Kenny is out of a job the more nervous they'll be if they get off to a poor start. I think Derry look like they don't have enough depth and too many of the squad are injury prone. Overall, hard to look past Rovers again. Added some depth in key positions, some younger players breaking through and looked very sharp in the President's cup game.

Premier
1 Shamrock Rovers – Consolidate, very stable and should improve on last season
2 St Pats – Look to have added some depth and quality although they have lost some quality too, I suspect they’ve improved overall and will be a lot better than the President’s cup performance. Could run Rovers close but don’t think they’ll have quite enough.
3 Shels – Duff has them hard to beat and they also seem to have added more to the squad than they’ve lost.
4 Derry – I don’t think they’ve got the depth they’ll need and I’m not sure they’ve got the manager to get the best from them either.
5 Drogheda – Seem to be quietly going about their business and building a good squad. Could be a surprise package to an extent.
6 Dundalk – Lots of turnover in the squad, could go either way but I expect them to struggle early and might see Stephen Kenny there by mid season!
7 Waterford – I think the entire bottom half is hard to call so taking a punt!
8 Galway – Should be hard to beat, unlikely to be fun to watch!!
9 Bohs – For all the off field success I think they’re going backwards quickly on the pitch. Devine won’t see out the season.
10 Sligo – Another club that seems to be slipping in the wrong direction. Would be a shame to see them relegated but they look to be lacking a lot of quality. Could just as easily finish 6th

First
1 Cork – They should cruise through the division but it’s never as easy as it might look on paper. The owners will be taking a lot of flack if there’s not an immediate return to the top flite.
2 Wexford – Honestly no idea how the rest of the division will end up, might as well have picked them out of a hat! I do think Wexford have added some quality and could be right up in the playoffs.
3 UCD
4 Treaty
5 Longford
6 Finn Harps
7 Athlone
8 Bray
9 Cobh
10 Kerry

Frist Manager Sacked: Stephen O’Donnell
Top Scorer – Johnny Kenny
FAI Cup – St Pats

Extremely gratifying to see us top the last place predictions on foot yet again and it's going to be satisfying when we prove the cognoscenti wrong once more.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redarmyfaction

Extremely gratifying to see us top the last place predictions on foot yet again and it's going to be satisfying when we prove the cognoscenti wrong once more.

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Your conviction is admirable, I wish Dundalk were in such an assured place. How about offering an opinion on why the cognoscenti are wrong? There has been plenty of reasoning rather than a simple statement of opinion as fact throughout the thread. You may not need to be in any way cognovit to the opinions of the cognoscente:rolleyes: we wont know 'til next November but in the mean time...

Premier Division
1 Rovers
2 Derry
3 Pats
4 Bohs
5 Shels
6 Galway
7 Waterford
8 Dundalk
9 Drogheda
10 Sligo

First Division
1 Cork
2 UCD
3 Bray
4 Wexford
5 Athlone
6 Longford
7 Harps
8 Kerry
9 Treaty
10 Cobh

Premier Division

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. Pats
3. Derry
4. Dundalk
5. Shels
6. Bohs
7. Drogs
8. Galway
9. Sligo
10. Waterford

First Division

1. UCD
2. Cork
3. Wexford
4. Athlone
5. Bray
6. Longford
7. Harps
8. Cobh
9. Treaty
10. Kerry

Slight revision to my original guess a couple of weeks ago

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redarmyfaction

Extremely gratifying to see us top the last place predictions on foot yet again and it's going to be satisfying when we prove the cognoscenti wrong once more.

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That's certainly a way of dressing up finishing 8th.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

Your conviction is admirable, I wish Dundalk were in such an assured place. How about offering an opinion on why the cognoscenti are wrong? There has been plenty of reasoning rather than a simple statement of opinion as fact throughout the thread. You may not need to be in any way cognovit to the opinions of the cognoscente:rolleyes: we wont know 'til next November but in the mean time...

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Most contributers have posted balls lists with no reasoning whatsoever and those that have present a couple of glib remarks.
I haven't time to into this but a couple of different of salient points, , 50% of promoted teams have been relegated since the advent of the 10 team PL making it highly likely one the those teams will occupy one of the bottom two places, we looked like challenging for promotion last year but and I mean no harm to the kid, Luke McNicolas was appalling last season and unsettled the entire 10 in front of him the return of McGinty is a big boost, ditto Mata, but the most important reason is tradition we have 19 straight years of PL experience behind us as a club and the experience of that gives more depth in our club institutions than the most of the 6 or 7 that will fight our the relegation spots.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redarmyfaction

Most contributers have posted balls lists with no reasoning whatsoever and those that have present a couple of glib remarks.
I haven't time to into this but a couple of different of salient points, , 50% of promoted teams have been relegated since the advent of the 10 team PL making it highly likely one the those teams will occupy one of the bottom two places, we looked like challenging for promotion last year but and I mean no harm to the kid, Luke McNicolas was appalling last season and unsettled the entire 10 in front of him the return of McGinty is a big boost, ditto Mata, but the most important reason is tradition we have 19 straight years of PL experience behind us as a club and the experience of that gives more depth in our club institutions than the most of the 6 or 7 that will fight our the relegation spots.

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There has been enough points made on why people have made their choices. I dont recall any glib remarks, bar your own, but do offer an example, Im sure the cognoscenti will take your opinions above in to consideration....

So a team that has not been relegated in 18 years is not at risk of relegation, tradition in some way indemnifies against the possibility? No sense of entitlement showing through there at all raf, whether you are bing sincere or not I hope the Sligo players dont buy in to such thinking, well actually I do now cause it could be a right old laugh if tradition has an injury crisis. Bohs have never been relegated but under Devine currently would you or even Bohs fans put the house on it not being possible? Unlikely but impossible even with all those years of tradition. Dundalk are 15 years in the Premier League, 5 league titles on, and I wouldnt rule out the possibility of relegation especially this season! If 50% of promoted clubs are relegated then 50% have not over years when there was nearly always a whipping club but thats not a given this year. At face value Galway and Waterford are better resourced than Sligo along with most others, Drogheda the probably the exception, if budgets buy league positions it Sligo will need an exceptional managerial performance. Two important signings indeed recently for Sligo but you may hope that there isnt an injury to them. Im presuming your comment on challening for promotion is a typo, but last season was more flirting with a relegation play-off, Im not sure what was being challenged for bar underachievement. its lucky that Cork were done and dusted but got within striking distance of looking like they could save their season at Sligo's expense, I think they bottled it rather than Sligo really turning things around. Fellow Sligo supporters have commented on mismanagement last season, has Russell banked on tradition saving things and will just plug away this season as per his norm? Maybe there are a bunch of youths about to take the league by storm, who knows, the cognoscenti wouldnt want to sound glib by suggesting that you sound more believe it become it than countering the general consenss of it possibly being a long season in store for The Showgrounds.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redarmyfaction

the most important reason is tradition we have 19 straight years of PL experience behind us as a club and the experience of that gives more depth in our club institutions than the most of the 6 or 7 that will fight our the relegation spots.

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Too big to go down, eh? That's always worked before.

Journal.ie has a league preview today. Three pundits asked "Who will get relegated?" (among other questions). The replies -

"This is such a difficult question. I am going to say Sligo, but I say that with zero confidence."
"I suspect it will be between four sides. Promoted teams usually find it difficult to adapt, so Galway and Waterford will probably be in the mix. Drogheda United and Sligo Rovers also look like they could struggle [...] I’m not convinced either have done enough in the off-season to be significantly better this time around."
"My gut instinct is that Sligo could finish bottom."

So it's not just foot.ie's notorious anti-Sligo bias anyway!

Premier Division

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. Derry
3. Pats
4. Shels
5. Bohs
6. Dundalk
7. Drogs
8. Sligo
9. Waterford
10. Galway

First Division

1. Cork
2. UCD
3. Wexford
4. Athlone
5. Bray
6. Harps
7. Longford
8. Treaty
9. Cobh
10. Kerry

I think there are legitimate questions about most teams outside of the consensus top 3(I even have some questions about Derry and to a lesser extent Pat's as well). The thing is Sligo seem to have more questions than most. Until the signing of Mata could it be easily said their squad has improved? Even still it's such a thin squad that a couple of injuries could be devastating. Then at manager I personally would have no faith in Russell making a big improvement this year. To compare to Bohs and Devine for all his faults he got the most out of Afolabi, McManus & Clarke improved throughout the year and you still have players like Grant, Cornwall, Connolly & McDonnell who I would consider "high floor" players meaning their worst games are probably a 6 out of 10. How high their ceiling is is the issue. Still plenty of unknowns at Bohs but if they are start 7 of the 11 that played the cup final in November they should be at least somewhat reliable.

I can't see bohs in a relegation battle , to many at least better than average players in the squad imo. Sligo pre the signings of mcginty and Mata were looking nailed on for a battle having just escaped one last year.

Can’t remember the last time we were predicted to be bottom by foot.ie but we were so bad last year we deserve to be put there. Surprised that Drogs are favourite to be bottom with PP

Avg positions

Shams 1.07
Derry 2.43
Pats 2.60
Shels 4.17
Bohs 5.90
Dundalk 6.20
Drogs 7.20
Galway 7.60
Waterford 8.80
Rovers 9.03

Cork 1.25
UCD 2.92
Wexford 2.96
Bray 4.42
Athlone 5.75
Longford 5.96
Harps 6.08
Treaty 7.83
Cobh 7.96
Kerry 9.88

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redarmyfaction

Most contributers have posted balls lists with no reasoning whatsoever and those that have present a couple of glib remarks.
I haven't time to into this but a couple of different of salient points, , 50% of promoted teams have been relegated since the advent of the 10 team PL making it highly likely one the those teams will occupy one of the bottom two places, we looked like challenging for promotion last year but and I mean no harm to the kid, Luke McNicolas was appalling last season and unsettled the entire 10 in front of him the return of McGinty is a big boost, ditto Mata, but the most important reason is tradition we have 19 straight years of PL experience behind us as a club and the experience of that gives more depth in our club institutions than the most of the 6 or 7 that will fight our the relegation spots.

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Club institutions? Can you elaborate on that? Your tea lady has more recent PL experience than Waterford's?

You should be fine now with McGinty and Mata back but would you have posted the above if Mata hadn't signed? I doubt you'd have been this confident and most people made their predictions before he did. Super signing tbf.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ontheotherhand

Club institutions? Can you elaborate on that? Your tea lady has more recent PL experience than Waterford's?

You should be fine now with McGinty and Mata back but would you have posted the above if Mata hadn't signed? I doubt you'd have been this confident and most people made their predictions before he did. Super signing tbf.

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Ok, let's put it this way Kerry has a population of 150K which puts it close to the median has won 37 SMs while Dublin with 10 times the population has only won 31 while Mayo and Donegal similarly sized, single code counties on the western seaboard have 5 between them. In hurling Kilkenny is similarly dominant yet it has only a population of 100000, clearly there is more than tea involved here but your are such a clever one I will let you figure out the why.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redarmyfaction

Ok, let's put it this way Kerry has a population of 150K which puts it close to the median has won 37 SMs while Dublin with 10 times the population has only won 31 while Mayo and Donegal similarly sized, single code counties on the western seaboard have 5 between them. In hurling Kilkenny is similarly dominant yet it has only a population of 100000, clearly there is more than tea involved here but your are such a clever one I will let you figure out the why.

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I was going to ask if Sligo was combining it's LoI and GAA teams into one super-team to make that analogy relevant but then realized both Sligo teams are ****e.

It'll be gas to see how badly you take actual relegation if you're this salty about predictions league relegation. Sadly Mata will probably save you.

Good luck anyway! I'd still rather have a pint with you than a Dublin gaa supporter.