Printable View
Should probably add - it’s not a world class group. And with Evan’s struggles - there’s no single individual that’s genuinely elite. Plenty of second tier European teams have a player like that, off the top of my head, Haaland, Isak, Hjolund, Sesko, Vlahovic, Gyorkes.
But what we have are a group of players who on a good day could score goals against anyone…
I will say we are better stocked right now in both goalkeepers and centre halves
Okay, the title is a little hyperbolic and Eirambler's phrase "encouraging depth" is probably more accurate, if less fun - I started it in response to two other threads with similar titles related to our goalkeeping and centre-back options at a time when some very exciting prospects were breaking through. I resurrected it because of the run of goals scored by our young forwards recently (how often have we had two players under 23 years of age score four goals each at such a high level within a couple of weeks of each other, while also having a teenager score in two games in a row at Championship level, and a 23-year-old score in the Champions League?). Gauging our options against other "Tier 2" nations would probably take a little time but I reckon there's probably a lot of international teams at that level who rely on one or two high-level forwards backed by a number of middling journeymen.Quote:
Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke
Couldn't agree more - and even historically, this group is starting to shape up as stronger than even our best groups of strikers - all the forwards you've listed have essentially broken through in the last five years or so (if we take Aaron Connolly's first cap as a starting point). When I look at our history, I can identify three rough periods of five years where a significant group of forwards broke into the team:Quote:
Originally Posted by elatedscum
1985-1990: Tony Cascarino, John Aldridge, Niall Quinn, David Kelly, John Byrne, Bernie Slaven
1997-2002: David Connolly, Robbie Keane, Clinton Morrison
2006-2011: Kevin Doyle, Shane Long, John Walters, Simon Cox
I think that we might have a group of young strikers who could surpass them and when you consider what these groups achieved, the next 10-15 years start to look very interesting.
The problem right now is that the 13 years of nothing mentioned above is still doing more in terms of damage than the players that have come through in the last five years are giving us in terms of benefit. This is true across the team, if the likes of the GKs, Collins, O'Brien, Omobamidele and all the forward players were coming into an established and successful international squad we'd be in great shape. But already some of them are being asked to be the senior players and they're not ready for that.
It will probably take until they are the senior and more experienced group, with another group of younger players coming in behind them - such as the Umeh brothers, Melia and a few more - before we finally see some tangible progress in terms of moving significantly back up the rankings.
Well we have to play them for points, and their equals, so when you're on this topic, our talent levels, you are comparing to those & everyone down along from that also.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eirambler
Two good midfielders would go a long long way. We've haven't had a creative midfielder of real international quality since Wes and a pure midfielder since probably Roy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eirambler
It's been an interesting year for our forwards - probably more down than up unfortunately. Putting them in rough ranking order just for discussion's sake.
Parrott - Great season, getting an upwards move, cementing a starting spot and scoring 20 goals, and then looking lively in the March internationals. I think our clear number one at the moment.
Idah - A bit of a sideways move at best (Norwich to Celtic, a couple of Champions League games in exchange for a lot of dross), but 19 goals, albeit he hasn't secured a starting spot and it's a weaker league than Holland (and the Championship, I'd say). Still, he was going nowhere at Norwich so this is better.
Ferguson - A disastrous season. Three league starts, one goal, barely four full matches of game time. Only 20 so time on his side but his drought is really worrying at this stage. Hardly going to go into the Brighton starting line-up for next season so needs a good move for next season. Maybe a downwards one at that. Technically his career isn't a million miles off mirroring the likes of Connolly.
Szmodmics - Missed half the season with injury, and only scored four times for Ipswich - granted, only Delap scored more (with 12). But it's hardly going to get him a move to another Premier side, and will Ipswich bounce back next season or will they be more likely to do a Luton?
Robinson - 12 was his best return in 6 years, but Cardiff wound up relegated. Surely needs a move to stay in the Championship to be an option for us? Still only 30, so not impossible.
Cannon - 10 in the Championship this season, though the four-goal haul early on skews that a bit, and he's gone backwards since then, with only one goal since joining Sheffield United in January. Might be hoping United don't get promoted.
Alli - Potentially a John Aldridge late bloomer. Four in six to finish the season for relegated Luton. Interesting to see how he does next season (assuming he stays with Luton). Think a call-up is a bit premature at the moment though.
Armstrong - An Adam Idah-like scoring rate of 7 in 94 games at Championship level. Early days yet of course - turns 22 next month - but is he actually any good?
Keane - Only three goals for Preston, after 13 the previous season. Just gone 32 so hardly finished, but not really an option for us at present, and you wouldn't bet on him getting another cap.
O'Mahony - 3 in 13 for Portsmouth, but no starts since October and still a way off a call-up I think.
Connolly - 24 Championship games is more than you'd have thought he'd get this time last year, but just two goals. Not sure is he contracted for next season?
Obafemi - 2 in 29 for Plymouth, but he's back to Burnley now and hardly likely to get a game there given they're back in the Premier. A long time since he was a realistic option.
Arguably Parrott and Alli are the only two to have had decent seasons there. Idah has done ok - though his scoring rate is less than at his Celtic loan spell, but at worst he's in line with last season - Szmodmics hasn't done too badly, injuries aside, and Armstrong and O'Mahony haven't kicked on but haven't gone backwards either, so maybe those four have kept pace with last season. Then Ferguson, Robinson, Cannon, Keane, Connolly and Obafemi all gone backwards.
After that you're down to the likes of Johnny Kenny (not a serious option at Celtic and will be off out on loan again soon), Collins (10 for Lincoln in League One) and Melia (obviously nowhere near a senior call-up) - am I missing anyone?
Azaz is probably more of a forward than a midfielder, so probably worth including him. Vata had a breakthrough year. Ogbene's season finished early with his injury. Emakhu had a few moments but probably needs a League 1 loan. Cannon had a great first half of the season and will score goals at Sheffield United next season if they're still a Championship team.
A bit of a mixed bag overall I'd say. I wouldn't worry too much about Will Keane or Michael Obafemi underperforming, they're heading towards the lower leagues anyway. Though it's a shame for Obafemi because he's capable of more, but he's 25 this summer, I think he's blown his chance.
Similar thing with Connolly, who is probably heading for League 1 within a season or two also. Even with his head more screwed on, he seems to have lost something that he once had, a yard of pace or a trick or something. Robinson is being linked to Wrexham, which would be interesting.
The big one though is Ferguson. We just have to hope that he gets a good pre-season and does better next term.
When will the, mystery / enigma, of Ferguson be solved ?
Normally ya get to hear the reasons why a player's form goes off the rails ~ Even for a young player.
But it still remains a, mystery/ enigma ? !
I remember an interview that Lee Sharpe did where he spoke about Alex Ferguson controlling their personal lives and in particular trying to stop them from having girlfriends or falling in with the wrong crowd. The whole Beckham / Victoria thing was a good example of it.
I'm not saying this is what's affecting Evan Ferguson but I always found it interesting that he seemed to have cracked the code on helping young fellas realize their potential from within their own academy.
You don't hear managers talk about Evan working his balls off in training. First in/last to leave type stuff which might be the change he needs to make. He was on for ten minutes again today and his raw ability is still clearly there.
More than anything he needs the right team though. Watching the Sheffield United lads yesterday desperately trying to help Cannon score was fairly inspiring. I'd argue Evan has had the opposite of that in both West Ham and Brighton. The fact that he's scoring for Ireland adds weight to the argument.
Ferguson's next move is so important. The West Ham move had so much going for it - Premiership side, big support base and club, manager that knew him, void for a striker.
The problem seemed to be with Ferguson. He got his opportunities and he didn't take them. Potter did screw him a bit playing two wingers as false 9s but I'm sure if he thought Ferguson was going to score he would have played him. Once Fullkrug was back, Ferguson was goosed having not proven much.
All appears to indicate he is still off it and needs to figure out how he gets himself back on it. Is he feeling the effects of injuries still? Or is he going to train hell for leather all summer and come back fitter than ever?
Then, where does he spend next season? There are rumours online that Leeds are looking at both Ferguson and Parrott this summer. I think Ferguson is more than capable of going there and doing something if he is right and the environment is right. Concern would be like West Ham if neither were spot on. Whereas, would a move to a lesser league like the Bundesliga or Championship give him half a season to get himself right? Or can he do it himself?
I would hate to be his agent and father this summer. Nathan Collins agent and father seem to have been the best at navigating him through choppy waters and transfers. Hopefully Ferguson's lot can work with Brighton to figure it out.
Don't rate Potter - never have - and felt West Ham was the wrong decision. I suspect that Ferguson and his dad felt that familiarity would help him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Olé Olé
I would disagree - like Hurzeler, Potter's system does not suit Ferguson - but I felt he actually played well in the limited opportunities he was given. I also suspect that there was a bit of a push-back from Fullkrug and others to Ferguson getting playing time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Olé Olé
Ferguson's attitude has never been a problem and I seriously doubt it will be a problem now (Welbeck's defence of Ferguson is evidence of that). He may be frustrated, but his father will keep his head straight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Olé Olé
I wouldn't consider Leeds - I think Farke is a good manager, but the ownership are capable of doing anything (like the rumours they were going to sack Farke). It is becoming increasingly hard for promoted teams to avoid relegation. The Leeds squad, is way off being able to stay in the PL and even if they spend a couple hundred million they will still struggle badly if they manage to survive. There was a top six gap with the rest - but the gap has shifted over the last 2/3 seasons - and it is now between the existing sides and those promoted. There is massive money going into the existing PL teams and that is increasing this gap day by day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Olé Olé
Ferguson is PL quality - but needs to be in a team that utilises his ability - i.e. a clear 9. I have seen a suggestion that if Newcastle sell Isak that Newcastle would be a good landing spot - and I agree. Howe plays a game that would suit Ferguson very well. I still think that Arsenal would have done a lot better if they had taken Ferguson on loan. Fulham or Forest could work - Villa if they sold Wadkins, Palace if they sold Mateta and Brentford if they sold Mbeumo. Depending on who Spurs got as manager that might be a possibility.
Ferguson is likely to cost £40m if sold - so nobody outside the PL - or leading clubs in Germany or Spain would have that money. He won't go for less because strikers are a premium and he is a good striker with huge upside.
People are tending to write him off because of the last season and a half - but the kid is still only what - 20. Ferguson has already played 68 PL matches (scoring 13 goals) - at 20 years of age Harry Kane (the player that is most comparable to Ferguson) had played in 4 PL games (3 as a bit part player on loan to Norwich), 13 games in the Championship with Leicester, another 22 games in the Championship with Millwall, and 18 games with Orient in L1 - a total of 55 games and 14 goals (none in the PL). It was another two years before Kane started to have any impact in the PL. We should not underestimate what Ferguson has already achieved - of players who have scored 10 goals or more in the PL this season - the youngest are Cole Palmer (15 goals) and Liam Delap (12) - both two years older than Ferguson - and it goes up in age from there. Give the kid time.
I said before that I don't think the Brighton owner Bloom is fully convinced about Hurzeler and Ferguson is under contract until 2029. Welbeck will be 35 next season and Brighton may end up selling Pedro as well - they might need Ferguson and Hurzeler may have to adapt to using him properly. But I could see a season long loan on the horizon for Ferguson. A host of PL clubs would be interested - he would cost (£5+ for the season) - but several would jump at the chance (including some of those above if they lose a striker) - or abroad - with Germany possibly being the best location for him. (by the way - if I was Parrott I'd stay in Holland - but the lure of PL money might be too much). But you are right - Ferguson and his dad would have to hit on the right move or it could set back his development - he needs playing time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Olé Olé
There is zero comparison between Ferguson and Connolly - Connolly was a flash in the pan (unfortunately because he had something about him) - Ferguson is not.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
I still think he is a bit light-weight - and staying in Holland would be the best thing for him.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Idah will never be a prolific goalscorer - but I do think that he is under-rated and does stuff on the pitch that doesn't get noticed. He could end up having a good career at Celtic and doing a job for us as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Dealt with this aboveQuote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Ipswich are too well run and have too good a coach to do a Luton - I think they will bounce straight back up and Szmodics will play a key role in it.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
I think he is probably out of the picture at this stage - had his moments but too inconsistent - I think he'll stay at Cardiff.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
From our perspective staying in the Championship would probably be best - also he did have an injury that seems to have hindered him a bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Here's hoping.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Armstrong is still very raw - big, powerful, fast with good feet - but he is way off in terms of knowing what to do with it. I said before it could take another 5 years to see what Armstrong ends up doing - and whether he can figure out what he needs to do. But I like the kid and what he brings to the table so I am hoping for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Yea - a bit of a busted flush I think - and he is 32.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
O'Mahoney was doing well until he suffered a Grade 2 oblique injury in December - a difficult injury for a footballer - and I suspect that he has struggled a little with his recovery. He was expected to be out for 5 weeks but ended up out for over 2 months. He probably needs a lot of rest and rehab over the summer.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
He will be looking for a new club - Emakhu has effectively taken his spot - and probably should be on this list. I think Connolly will end up as a L1 journeyman.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Hard to know where he will end up.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
I think Azaz should be on the list - he can play an advanced role.
I was taking Azaz as an attacking mid and Vata/Ogbene as wingers (hence no Johnston either) but yeah, they can go on here I guess. Emakhu too - probably somewhere between Alli and O'Mahony I guess?Quote:
Originally Posted by Eirambler
I was really impressed by EF when he first broke through, and there's no way I'd write off someone so young from having a top career at a top club in a top league - like eg Troy Parrott he's got plenty of time to fulfil his obvious early potential.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jolly Red Giant
But as s.o. who watches a lot of PL (and EFL) football live, I can only say you are looking at him with heavily green-tinted glasses. You mention Newcastle. If they sell Isak (personally don't think they will), do you honestly think a club with their money and ambition would replace him with a 20 y.o. with a handful of PL starts/goals who, quite honestly, hasn't broken through yet at either BHA or WHU? I mean, if they're playing CL football next season? Ditto Arsenal.
Fulham or Forest are possibles, I suppose, but each (esp Forest) would be looking at more PL-ready players if they can find them, esp Forest, assuming they qualify for Europe. As for Villa, even if they sell Watkins (and I can't see them wanting to), he's an entirely different type of central striker from EF i.e. he plays off the shoulder of the defender and uses his searing pace to get past them and run on goal from distance. On top of which, should they need/decide to replace Watkins, I'd imagine Rashford would be more likely, or a player who already has similar accomplishments, rather than a tyro.
As for Palace, don't know much about them, but is there any evidence their manager favours a No.9 like EF? While with Brentford, you clearly cannot have seen either them or Mbuemo play. Yes, they had a traditional No.9 in Ivan Toney, but when they knew he was leaving, rather than replace him like-for-like, they went with a front three of Shade, Wissa (centre) and Mbuemo, none of whom is remotely like Toney or EF. Mbuemo in particular, is heavily left-footed but plays on the right of the three, cutting in onto his left, exactly like eg Mo Salah.
Of course, they are known for their tactical flexibility, so I wouldn't be surprised of they shake things up should Mbuemo and/or Wissa go. But if they do, their choice of ready-made No.9 is already at the club in Igor Thiago, a 23 y.o. Brazilian, signed from Brugge for a club-record £30m. I can tell you, he's a big unit and the only reason you haven't heard of him is because he's had terrible bad luck with injuries. However, he should be ready for next season and if he is as good as BFC hope, then trust me, you'll hear a lot more about him. (As for Schade, it's pretty obvious that Bees are going to convert him from a wide player to a pacy central striker, exactly as they did eg with Ollie Watkins).
As for Spurs, nothing would surprise me about that club(!) and Levy is alsways on the look-out for a young player who might eventually be sold for a profit. But if Postecoglu/his successor does favour a traditional No.9, EF would still be a long way short of displacing Dominic Solanke, who's much the more accomplished player at this stage. And cost £55m...
Oh dear. Harry Kane's early career at Spurs cannot be compared to that of EF other than at a very superficial level. Fact is, he was only lent out because Spurs had a succession of managers who weren't prepared to chance a novice No.9, no matter how talented, in preference to expensively signed No.9's in Crouch/Pavylucenko/Adebayor/Soldado. (I mean, which of them was going to tell Levy that he'd overpaid for those last three duds?)Quote:
Originally Posted by Jolly Red Giant
While Kane's immediate impact when he finally got his chance ahead of the ineffably hopeless Soldado, only showed that he should have been in the team at least a season earlier, if not two.
Agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jolly Red Giant
But before anyone should accuse me of being anti-EF just because I'm from NI etc, I repeat, he's a terrific prospect who at 20, has already achieved a great deal for one so young. But at the same time, it cannot be denied that his career has stalled badly this last 12-18 months, such that it seems very unlikely that any established PL club is eg going to pay a big fee and make him their 1st choice No.9 next season. Far more likely that he's going to have to work his way back up from what is still probably only a temporary setback, whether that be back at BHA, or elsewhere.
I read an article recently that Moyes is interested in Ferguson and believes he could be the one to get the most out of him. Everton would be a good place for him to land I think but not at that price tag. I think he could move for less than 40 as well. That's the number that's being floated around for Delap and I doubt anyone would argue that Ferguson is in more demand than Delap
Delap's price is dictated by a well reported release clause though. He would be costing more only for it and there would be a bidding war driving that up.Quote:
Originally Posted by rebelmusic
Everton were reported to be heavily interested (did Moyes comment as much?) but also reported to have conceded he will go elsewhere (United? Chelsea?).
Beto had a few purple patches at Everton last season. Found a bit of form around the same time Ferguson wasn't finding enough of it at West Ham. Ferguson motoring would surely manage to surpass Beto and it would be healthy competition. Dominic Calvert Lewin another option there. He is surely unlikely to find some prolonged rejuvenation at this point.
To be clear I am not saying that either Newcastle or Arsenal would be interested in Ferguson - what I am saying is that they should. He would be an ideal replacement for Isak if he left and would score a lot of goals there. I argued that Arsenal should have taken a punt on Ferguson when he went out on loan because they create a stack load of chance that they don't convert - the types of chances that Ferguson would thrive on.Quote:
Originally Posted by EalingGreen
Chris Wood is 33 and would not be able for a full season of PL and Euro games - again - the way they play would suit Ferguson. Man U want Wadkins and are supposedly offered Rashford in exchange.Quote:
Originally Posted by EalingGreen
You make valid points about Villa and Brentford - Palace do play a system more suited to Ferguson - as for Spurs - Son is 32 and gone off the boil, Werner is go back to the Bundesliga, Richarlson did nothing and Johnson is more of a winger these days. Ferguson could be accommodated but it should be noted that Solanke has only played 25 times in the PL this season and only scored 8 times - not great for a £55m investment.
At 22 Kane went to Leicester in the Championship - started 5 times and made 8 sub appearances and scoring two goals - Its nonsense to suggest he was ready for the PL. The following season he only played 10 times in the PL and scored 3 goals. He was 24 before he began to show his potential and perform at a high level.Quote:
Originally Posted by EalingGreen
Everton would be a good move - Moyes would definitely know what to do with Ferguson.Quote:
Originally Posted by rebelmusic
The value is not comparable - Delap has a relegation release clause and that is where his fee comes from. Bloom knows the value of Ferguson and I can't see any way he lets him go for less than £40m (and by the way - I think Fergson is better than Delap).
Say all this I still think that a loan is the most likely prospect - he is under contract until 2029 and Brighton are under no pressure to sell. Keep in mind that Welbeck is 35 and Pedro could be sold (if not this season then next). Brighton would have to get a big offer to be enticed to move him on.
Calm down. Not a great time to make statements like this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jolly Red Giant
Yeah, overall a bit of balance needed in the mix here, some molecule of acknowledgment to the reality of Ferguson on the pitch ( & more often than not, on the bench ) for some considerable time now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Olé Olé
He is better than Rory is now anyway !Quote:
Originally Posted by Olé Olé
Calm down, it's an attempt at being funny, a bit of a Rory type punt !