Yeah, Italy are a step up on what England have faced before, and they struggled against Denmark - the only other side to actually come out and play against them - for 40 minutes before starting to get on top (and then Denmark tired...and even then they needed a dodgy penalty)
Even with home advantage, I'm not sure England have shown enough to indicate they can take the game to Italy, who've been consistently great this tournament. I'm sure that'll bite me in 11 hours' time, but Italy favourites for me.