General Election 2020

Early likely casualties, based on admittedly incomplete tallies... Shane Ross, Katherine Zappone, Paul Murphy, Joan Burton.

Labour look an old, spent force. Solidarity-PBP-whatever-we're-called-this-week look like being nearly wiped out. Greens look good for big increases. Soc Dems - maybe one or two seat gain? Gary Gannon in with a long-shot shout, but much depends on where Mary Lou McDonald's second prefs go. She's running a 1.5 quota, and her transfers seem to be going on gender lines. Core SF voters traditionally plumped and didn't transfer. Will their new-found voter 'punish' FF and FG with only a 2 or 3? Could see the big two taking final seats based on transfers in that case. But I have a feeling that transfers won't be so easily guessed this time.

I have a hunch, too, given SF's success with the 18-30 voter, that we've seen the last Saturday vote for another century! Everything Vardkar turned to went sour. It'll be some legacy to lead the party to this disaster, not bring in a running mate (first FG leader since FitzGerald to fail) and hand either ministerial seats or lead opposition status to SF.

Edit: I can see the SF 22% FPs being somewhat false. Several candidates are polling far higher than this - mid-thirties and higher - and in the ordinary run of things that would bring in a running mate. Most don't have one, so these votes will spread, and be lost. Can't work with incomplete figures, but these big dogs could be inflating the SF poll by 5% or more, leaving them with something closer to 17% in effectual votes, giving them seats somtwhere in the high twenties. Pure guesswork at this stage, though.

Surprised by Murphy struggling , he should do well from Crowes transfers but might not be enough. I’m not surprised by Zappone I didn’t fancy her chances.

Lack-of-Internal-Solidarity-PBP and Murphy/RISE are both running, so the vote base is split (9% between them on tallies). Soc Dems at 4% are a respectable protest vote that would appeal to more affluent parts of the constituency, harming Labour too. Murphy's vote, I reckon, is a personal one. Crowe's additional votes will have harmed him - maybe he'll benefit from Crowe's surplus. But my caveat on SF transfers remains: these new voters are not SF voters and their second preferences may well 'go home' as it were. Wish I was still involved in active politics! I'd give my left arm to be at a count today!!

The Zapper is symptomatic of an out of touch government. Shes comes across as too intellectual for Irish politics (I think she'd fit into the French ministerial appointment system better, for instance) and wouldn't strike me as particularly good on the door step. There may be a likeability issue. (I know: I'd favour competence over personality guff anyday...) She pulled a stunt last time running from the Senate as a neutral FG appointment that caught FG on the hop. It's not a trick that works twice.

RTÉ election coverage isn’t the same without Noel Whelan RIP. I’m preferring Virgin Medias coverage so far.

Same old faces alright. I mean, Terry Prone....

It’s gripping stuff in general. I think we’re heading for FF/SF/Green coalition. Hard to see FF/FG now as both weakened and would risk being wiped out next time. FG are stronger in their no SF stance. I don’t think there’s enough in the left alternatives to form a SF led government. Don’t think anyone saw SF getting over 30 seats. It’s going to be a very interesting week.

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Originally Posted by passinginterest

It’s gripping stuff in general. I think we’re heading for FF/SF/Green coalition. Hard to see FF/FG now as both weakened and would risk being wiped out next time. FG are stronger in their no SF stance. I don’t think there’s enough in the left alternatives to form a SF led government. Don’t think anyone saw SF getting over 30 seats. It’s going to be a very interesting week.

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Anything other than FF/SF/Green coalition will have us heading back to the polls. It’s Martins last chance at the big job, I can’t see him passing up the opportunity.

It's been pointed out to me that he will refuse to be the first FF leader to not be Taoiseach, so suspect the party will compromise to get SF on-board.

FG probably won't mind to a certain extent. After nine years in government the only way is down. Varadkar might be better for them as leader of the opposition than he was at Taoiseach. I don't know if anyone else caught the multitude of Pro-Brexit British accounts on social media accounts, that started crowing when SF topped the poll in Leo's constituency. They thought it was FPTP.

Looks like Soc Dems will definitely have 5, and probably 6 depending on how Dublin Central falls. Huge for them.

The British reaction to the election in general has been hilarious.

It's no wonder they voted for Brexit when you see how clueless the average Brit is.

I hang out on r/ukpolitics on Reddit quite a lot. It's quite remain-biased, but even with that the lack of knowledge about Ireland is crazy. There are a few people there that are aware of our history, but if you averaged it all out, most of them are so out of touch you could say they know less than nothing. And we probably have more awareness of their history (and intelligence about their economy wrt to Brexit) than a good portion of them. It's embarrassing how like the US they've become. No, it would be more accurate to say that it's embarrassing how like the US we've become, and it's dangerous how like the US they've become.

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Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954

The British reaction to the election in general has been hilarious.

It's no wonder they voted for Brexit when you see how clueless the average Brit is.

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Its only when you go over there and talk to the average person you realise how little they have a clue about this country or care !

It is quite hard to get the head around but maybe it's shouldn't be such a surprise. Are we blinded by the fact that we know so much about them, that we subconsciously expect something similar in return? We're exposed to UK-everything our whole lives.

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Originally Posted by DeLorean

It is quite hard to get the head around but maybe it's shouldn't be such a surprise.

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I don't find it hard to get my head around at all. Irish politics and current affairs, outside of Troubles related issues, simply don't feature much on the British media landscape. As for the lack of historical knowledge, that's more an indictment of the education system.

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Originally Posted by DeLorean

Are we blinded by the fact that we know so much about them, that we subconsciously expect something similar in return? We're exposed to UK-everything our whole lives.

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I'd say so.

In other news....https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51443191

Once upon a time, I used to work shift work which involved me getting up an ungodly hour every 3rd week, and while I waited for my lift to work, I'd watch some tv, and the only thing on (any channel) at that time was Euronews. I really noticed then how little Ireland was ever featured at all. NI-related developments and nothing else.

Made me realise how little other Europeans would know about us.

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Made me realise how little other Europeans would know about us.

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In fairness most elections and politics in general outside the US are mundane enough. I’d be able to name a few German political parties and UK obviously but wouldn’t have a clue about Poland or Italy for example.

So with 2 seats left to fill we have SF on 37, FF on 36 and FG on 35, with the GP on 12.

Sinn Féin certainly left a lot of seats behind and another election wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for them.

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Originally Posted by The Fly

So with 2 seats left to fill we have SF on 37, FF on 36 and FG on 35, with the GP on 12.

Sinn Féin certainly left a lot of seats behind and another election wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for them.

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That's why I think SF will end up leading a leftist minority government. FF will do as they did for Leo and step aside to allow MLMcD to be Taoiseach, in the hope they can pull the rug somewhere down the line when things are looking better for them.

They can do no other. If they go in with FG they will lose the like of Éamon Ó Cuív to SF. If they go in with SF it wouldn't be hard to imagine a few going the other way.

Final tallies:


Fianna Fáil - 38
Sinn Féin - 37
Fine Gael - 35
Greens - 12
Social Democrats - 6
Labour - 6
Solidarity-PBP - 5
Aontú - 1
Independents4change - 1
Independents 19

It's incredibly tightly balance now. No easy route to coalition, there's nowhere near enough for a fully left government (and I don't think that's what the electorate really want either, despite some of the childish stuff along the lines of 'sure let them off to have their Venezuela if that's what they want). I think there's a small majority for a left leaning government, but only marginally further to the left, not into the realms of PBP. I've also no doubt that the negative campaigning by FF and FG drove a sizeable enough number into the arms of SF, with the view that it was a free hit against the Government parties. Despite that if you take the two main parties and the many like minded independents, the majority have still voted centrist.

A return to the polls is risky for everyone. SF could run more candidates, but with the realisation that they could lead a Government some of the protest might run scared, it wouldn't take a huge drop in their first preference votes to see them actually end up losing a few seats (the up the RA stuff etc. not helping). Marginal gains would probably go back to the establishment parties and judging by the transfers the other smaller left parties. We'd likely be not much closer to a clear government formation.

I still think the most likely coalition is FF/SF/Green and probably the SDs to add depth. If SF approach FF with Green and SD already on board, it effectively puts FF in a minority but will likely dangle the carrot of Taoiseach for them. Pretty much all the scenarios look like big risk and questionable reward.

Fianna Fáil - 42
Sinn Féin - 50
Fine Gael - 35
Greens - 10
Social Democrats - 3
Labour - 4
Solidarity-PBP - 1
Aontú - 0
Independents 15


This would be my call on another election looking at where other parties SPBP SD Labour + Indos got elected because SF did'nt have enough candidates and also FF were statistically very unfortunate in several places and would hardly lose every bounce of a ball next time.
They might lose a seat or two to FG who people would see as being the only way to vote against SF.
On balance another election might be good to accurately reflect what people want.