2015 Predictions

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03/03/2015, 8:42 PM
total hoofball

1. St. Patrick's Athletic
2. Dundalk
3. Shamrock Rovers
4. Cork City
5. Sligo Rovers
6. Bohemians
7. Derry City
8. Longford Town
9. Galway United
10. Limerick
11. Bray Wanderers
12. Drogheda United

1. UCD
2. Athlone Town
3. Wexford Youths
4. Finn Harps
5. Shelbourne
6. Cobh Ramblers
7. Waterford United
8. Cabinteely
03/03/2015, 10:19 PM
PartySaint

Quote:

Originally Posted by wonder88

I wouldn't say Buckley should go, but 4th seems a dangerous position to be in for a manager of a team with title expectations. So Pats didn't expect more from last season? If I recall the only other player (in the league) that their fans considered would improve their squad was Towell. There was expectations more than 4th when K Fahey signed I say.

Why should Trevor Crolly not be given another chance. He might have learned some lessons after been over-promoted in the media as a great coach. The manager sacked before him by Jonathan Roache seem to have done OK.

We didn't finish 4th last season. The team with the '4th highest budget' did.
03/03/2015, 10:49 PM
wonder88

My mistake. Crolly of course was right as their is a 92% correlation between the wages paid by a club and where they will finish in the table. Difficult to get accurate figures as clubs accounts are not usually made public in the LoI, but I would speculate Cork over achieved last year.
03/03/2015, 10:51 PM
Charlie Darwin

Quote:

Originally Posted by wonder88

My mistake. Crolly of course was right as their is a 92% correlation between the wages paid by a club and where they will finish in the table. Difficult to get accurate figures as clubs accounts are not usually made public in the LoI, but I would speculate Cork over achieved last year.

There's probably no real difference between what last season's top five spent, and Limerick were probably close too. The wage correlation would be fairly weak in this league compared to others where there's a clear hierarchy of ability to spend.
04/03/2015, 8:34 AM
PartySaint

Quote:

Originally Posted by wonder88

My mistake. Crolly of course was right as their is a 92% correlation between the wages paid by a club and where they will finish in the table. Difficult to get accurate figures as clubs accounts are not usually made public in the LoI, but I would speculate Cork over achieved last year.

Dundalk as well as I've no doubt Pats and Rovers had a higher wage bill than them last season.
04/03/2015, 11:36 AM
gormacha

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. Cork City
3. Dundalk
4. St. Patrick's Athletic
5. Sligo Rovers
6. Bohemians
7. Derry City
8. Drogheda United
9. Bray Wanderers
10. Galway United
11. Limerick
12. Longford Town

1. Shelbourne
2. Athlone Town
3. Wexford Youths
4. Cobh
5. Waterford United
6. UCD
7. Finn Harps
8. Cabinteely
04/03/2015, 1:09 PM
Sam_Heggy

Think Harps will surprise alot of people. Stronger at the back, more creative in midfield and more pace up front that last season. Still think we dont have the strength in depth to challenge for the league but staying in the race for a play-off spot would be a welcome improvement from last season on the same size of budget.
04/03/2015, 5:24 PM
Joe Dixon

Premier Division:

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. St Pat's
3. Cork City
4. Dundalk
5. Sligo Rovers
6. Derry City
7. Drogheda Utd
8. Bohemians
9. Limerick
10. Longford T
11. Bray Wanderers
12. Galway United

First Division:

1. Shelbourne
2. Athlone T
3. UCD
4. Finn Harps
5. Waterford U
6. Wexford Y
7. Cobh Ramblers
8. Cabinteely

FAI Cup: Cork City
League Cup: Sligo R
Play-off: Athlone
04/03/2015, 5:48 PM
outspoken

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam_Heggy

Think Harps will surprise alot of people. Stronger at the back, more creative in midfield and more pace up front that last season. Still think we dont have the strength in depth to challenge for the league but staying in the race for a play-off spot would be a welcome improvement from last season on the same size of budget.

Back 4 wasn't your problem last season with the 3rd best define ive record and its definitely stronger this season so should concede very few goals. In midfield I don't see much creativity but there's more pace in the team with the likes of Donnelan, Crolly, Keating etc but still don't think youl score enough goals under Horgan. He's my bet to be first sacked.
04/03/2015, 6:02 PM
nigel-harps1954

Quote:

Originally Posted by outspoken

Back 4 wasn't your problem last season with the 3rd best define ive record and its definitely stronger this season so should concede very few goals. In midfield I don't see much creativity but there's more pace in the team with the likes of Donnelan, Crolly, Keating etc but still don't think youl score enough goals under Horgan. He's my bet to be first sacked.

I'll definitely take that money off you so. I'm sure you meant Brolly there too, who's injured for the first month or two of the season.
McNamee and Foy are two good additions in midfield for any First Division side and Brian McGrory with a full pre-season under his belt will prove to be one of the best wide midfielders in the division. He was very highly thought of at Wolves and only for a condition that affects him he'd probably be still over there.

Quietly confident about our chances of at least a play-off spot. You're right enough about Horgans tactics though, hope to feck he's learned a lesson and will need to attack teams this year.

Kevin McHughs last season as a player and he'll be determined to go out with a bang. Just thought I'd add that.
04/03/2015, 6:57 PM
BonnieShels

Quote:

Originally Posted by littlebray

Just for giggles, arithmetical mean of the predictions so far:

=1. Dundalk 2.21
=1. Shamrock Rovers 2.21
3. Cork 2.57
4. Pats 3.14
5. Sligo Rovers 5.0
6. Derry 6.7
7. Bohemian 7.0
8. Drogheda 9.07
9. Longford 9.21
10. Galway 9.8
11. Bray Wanderers 10.28
12. Limerick 10.8

Top four very tight indeed, bottom five pretty competitive!

I was hoping someone would do this.

Premier Division:

1. Shamrock Rovers
2. Cork City
3. St. Patrick's Ath
4. Dundalk
5. Sligo Rovers
6. Derry City
7. Bohemians
8. Drogheda United
9. Limerick
10. Galway United
11. Longford Town
12. Bray Wanderers

First Division:

1. UCD
2. Shelbourne
3. Finn Harps
4. Athlone Town
5. Waterford United
6. Wexford Youths
7. Cobh Ramblers
8. Cabinteely

FAI Cup: Sligo Rovers
League Cup: Derry City
Play-off: Athlone
04/03/2015, 7:42 PM
littlebray

Did a

Quote:

Originally Posted by littlebray

Second count

after about twelve more predictions came in (and included the 1st Div), but that'll do me. Life's too short ...
04/03/2015, 9:11 PM
placid casual

Eh... now might be a good time to remind everyone that Rovers have no striker as such.
I'd be genuinely surprised if the Hoops won the league
sausage-in-batter North may do the business , but i;d be sceptical.
then again dundalk dont have a striker either. and if fagan gets injured the junkies will have to rely on Kilduff:D:o
04/03/2015, 9:32 PM
ped_ped

How sad that the predictions of Limerick finishing 11th look positive.

Premier Division:

1. St. Patrick's Athletic
2. Cork City
3. Dundalk
4. Shamrock Rovers
5. Sligo Rovers
6. Derry City
7. Bohemians
8. Drogheda United
9. Galway United
10. Longford Town
11. Limerick
12. Bray Wanderers

I don't know enough about the First Division to make any kind of an education guess.
04/03/2015, 10:44 PM
PartySaint

Quote:

Originally Posted by placid casual

and if fagan gets injured the junkies will have to rely on Kilduff:D:o

That's what you think ;)

North will score goals especially with Fahey in behind him. I wouldn't be surprised if he got 20+ this season.
04/03/2015, 10:47 PM
Mister X

Quote:

Originally Posted by littlebray

Here are the results of the second count, incorporating predictions from 10pm last night to 5pm today.

New position (previous position); 1st coefficient; 2nd coefficient

Premier

1. (=1) Dundalk 2.21 2.14
2. (=1) Shamrock Rovers 2.21 2.23
3. (3) Cork 2.57 2.64
4. (4) Pats 3.14 3.09
5. (5) Sligo Rovers 5.0 4.95
6. (6) Derry 6.7 6.64
7. (7) Bohemian 7.0 6.86
8. (9) Longford 9.21 9.05
9. (8) Drogheda 9.07 9.23
10. (11) Bray Wanderers 10.28 10.00
11. (12) Limerick 10.8 10.09
12. (10) Galway 9.8 10.32

First

1. (3) Athlone 2.31 2.18
2. (2) Shelbourne 2.30 2.23
3. (1) UCD 2.0 2.32
4. (5) Wexford Youths 5.07 4.54
5. (4) Finn Harps 4.69 4.73
6. (6) Cobh Ramblers 5.23 5.86
7. (7) Waterford 6.46 6.73
8. (8) Cabinteely 8.0 7.86

can you explain how in the world you did that because i cant manage to get my head around it
04/03/2015, 10:47 PM
Charlie Darwin

North will either score 15-20 or he'll score 4-5. We'll see how things go when the season proper gets up and running.
05/03/2015, 12:43 AM
littlebray

It's dead crude - add all the positions predicted, team by team, and divide by the number of predictions. lots of adding and dividing, but hey!
05/03/2015, 6:34 AM
Nah Nah Nah Nah

Think North at 10/1 to be top scorer is a great bet
05/03/2015, 8:06 AM
Ezeikial

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin

North will either score 15-20 or he'll score 4-5. We'll see how things go when the season proper gets up and running.

Fitness (or lack of) is probably the key with North

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nah Nah Nah Nah

Think North at 10/1 to be top scorer is a great bet

Karl Sheppard at 33/1 seems a good value outside bet - although Cork's style of play last season did not create a load of chances

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