I don't know why people are assuming that Sweden, Russia and Croatia are definitely going to be in the play-offs. I think Portugal will make 2nd place in Group 1. They have 2 winnable games at home, and unless Sweden win in Denmark I can't see them getting second. We would have no chance against Portugal, imagine Ronaldo running at Kilbane over 180 minutes.
Russia have got Germany at home next and if they win they will probably win Group 4. The Germans have also got Finland at home in their last game, and they have a bad recent record against them (2 draws in 2002 World Cup qualifiers, without these Beckham's goal against Greece wouldn't have mattered). To be honest, I'd rather draw the Germans than the Russians in a play-off. I think Russia have got a very good side now and a great manager, and Moscow in November is the ultimate nightmare draw. I think the Germans would probably beat us as well, but I don't think they are as good as everyone thinks they are.
If the Ukraine beat England in Kiev then Croatia are as good as out, as Ukraine play Andorra in their last game. Not sure if they will but it's more than possible as England have nothing to play for. Also Norway are as good as out as the worst placed second team, so I'm not sure why they are being mentioned. If we draw France, Russia or Portugal I think we'll lose; Germany or Croatia we'll probably lose but we'd have an outside chance; Czech Republic, Greece or Ukraine is the best we can hope for out of the top seeds.