Fair enough.
Worth noting I think Hungary are best third-place team at the moment because of Croatia's one-point deduction. Would be very annoying if that cost us a seeding.
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Fair enough.
Worth noting I think Hungary are best third-place team at the moment because of Croatia's one-point deduction. Would be very annoying if that cost us a seeding.
Turkey are odds on to finish 3rd. On the hour mark this evening they began to look like a classy attractive team and should have won by a greater margin.Quote:
Originally Posted by davidatrb
I suspect there was much frustration and anger in the Netherlands this evening ....... and I suppose I'm not too unhappy about that.
Turkey only need to draw at home with Iceland to go to the play offs, but would need to win to be a seeding contender ahead of us.
Here's how I see it.
Group A - Turkey surely have 3rd need a point at home against Iceland
Group B - Likely Bosnia will get 3rd. Israel need to get something away to Belgium after losing at home to Cyrpus
Group C - Has to be Ukraine. Ukraine need to beat/draw with Spain away hope Slovakia draw/lose to Luxembourg.
Group E - Slovenia
Group F - Hungary. Romania will beat the Faroes.
Group G - Sweden. Russia wont lose to Macedonia at home.
Group H - Norway. Norway wont beat Italy away.
Group I - Likely Albania. Cant see them getting a win in Armenia.
That would put us in the top seeded half with Turkey, Slovenia, Norway or Albania to play.
Decent summary, the critical results really being in group H replacing Croatia with NorwayQuote:
Originally Posted by eekers
8/13 on oddschecker for Turkey to win, which is good and bad. If we lose and they win then they will have more coefficient points than we will, so it won't matter at all that they kept out Netherlands. 29/10 for a draw which is the best result for us.Quote:
Originally Posted by eekers
All agreed.Quote:
Originally Posted by eekers
Norway are 9/2 on oddschecker so not beyond the realms of possibility. Not the most likely result but I will still be keeping an eye on the score all the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by eekers
The bookies think that they can, Paddypower have them at 6/5 to win, so almost 50-50 chance.Quote:
Originally Posted by eekers
I'm hoping. But even looking at it and how Turkey are playing lately, I wouldn't be happy with the potential of drawing them.Quote:
Originally Posted by eekers
Get the job done and beat Poland! Please :)
I think this summarises the likely scenarios. Still though, likely that some result will throw up something that I hadn't consider, like Cyprus beating Israel (that was a 6/1 shot). I had taken it for granted that they would easy win this and I think I hoped a little too much that Bosnia would struggle against the Welsh.
http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/10/t...6-seeding.html
Just read on wikipedia that the draw for the play offs is on the 18th October, and the next set of FIFA rankings are due to be released on the 5th November, so will the win over Germany, and the result against Poland be taken into account when the draw is made?
Well according to wiki also:Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
So yes the Germany result will count but no not the FIFA Rankings. In UEFA coefficient calculation the strength of opposition counts for nothing so doesn't cause such a huge swing as it will in FIFA rankings but definitely still helps.Quote:
The teams are seeded for the play-off draw according to the UEFA national team coefficient rankings updated after the completion of the group stage.
ah, I see. Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by davidatrb
Even if we don't qualify automatically on Sunday, a draw would be a huge help in terms of the co-efficient as it would keep us ahead of Turkey and Denmark in terms of seeding. If we lose on Sunday I'd expect us to be unseeded for the playoffs after what happened in Wales' group last night.
Another reason to beat Poland. At the moment we would be in Pot 4 if we qualify - so looking at potential of something like a group of death (eg Spain, Italy, Czech, Ireland) in the Euro 2016 proper.
http://www.footballseeding.com/national-ranking-uefa/
I finally understand why he is colour-coding the table on footballseeding.com.
It looks to me that if Netherlands dont qualify then we are first in line to move into Pot 3, we should also move up ahead of Denmark (if we at least draw).
Anyway, definitely getting a step ahead of myself here.
The third-placed team in our group is very interesting. No one has mentioned the possibility of Cyprus being third in our group - but it is quite possible. If they beat Bosnia-H at home and Israel fail to beat Belgium they will be third. That would be a great success for them, I hope they do it.
It looks like you will be seeded in the play-offs should you fail to qualify automatically. I can't really see Norway beating Italy which is what it basically boils down to, right?
Yes if we draw then we probably should be seeded for the playoffs but not guaranteed. But if we lose its a whole other story and its hard to see all the results going our way to be seeded - Norway to replace Croatia in third, Turkey to hold off Netherlands (but to do it without winning against Iceland) and Albania to fail to beat Armenia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cymro
Cyprus or Israel toppling Bosnia might also help but looks too unlikely to count on.
just a quick "well done" on my part, and I'm sure on behalf of everyone else here. You've been a really welcome guest on this forum down the years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cymro
Thanks Stuttgart88 - and I expect we'll see you in France. I'm a bit gutted for the Scots I have to say though. I will be watching your game with interest tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
Oh, and bring on the World Cup qualifiers after that. If you could draw all games against Serbia and Austria whilst we (meaning Wales and ROI), er, don't make a deal to split the games one win each, that would probably do.
It isn't that unlikely, basically if Cyprus win they have done it. Israel are more unlikely. My money's on the Bosnio-Herzogvinians (sic?) though.Quote:
Originally Posted by davidatrb
Well paddy power agrees with you 14/5 for Cyprus to beat Bosnia... Surprises me a little but all the better if it can help Ireland out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cymro
So Denmark will be third. A loss to Poland will put us below Denmark in the seeding. A draw would bring us ahead of them.
Attachment 2332Quote:
Originally Posted by eekers
I've added Cyprus to my little table they could still play a part in our destination. Updated for the 5pm games.
Hungary losing is actually good, because we can now jump ahead of them with a draw, and if Ukraine beat Spain then Hungary lose their golden ticket.
Albania winning was a bit expected but as eekers said, we're not that worried about Denmark because we can jump them with at least a draw.
Best chance still looks like a Norway slip against Italy, but now also the Ukraine/Spain result can give us another way in.
I hope none of it matters though. Just beat Poland!
Hungary losing makes no real difference as they lost to the bottom side. They will progress as the best 3rd placed teamQuote:
Originally Posted by davidatrb