UEFA Coefficient

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pete

The eL has been improving in recent seasons. Armerian has not. The eL gained more ranking points last year than Armenia have in the last 5 years. Thats the size of the gap. Derry City do get credit for not being as bad as Drogs ;)

Good to see Drogs fans unable to defend their teams performance. By having a go Cork City ye seem to have forgotten Drogs gained its their first ever Uefa ranking points the previous season.

:rolleyes:

---

Much of the ELs improvement has been proved as financially unsustainable.

Shels, Cork and last year Derry have been responsible for most of the coefficient improvement. Shels have imploded, Cork's side has been broken up and sold (and lost to Swedish opposition for the 1st time in 4 years for an EL side) and Derry whilst having a similar side have not been able to afford the professionalism of the Kenny era.

The quality of the EL is not as high as in previous years and is more reflective of what level of football is realistic given poor revenue and small attendences.

Disappointing but true.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pete

Good to see Drogs fans unable to defend their teams performance. :rolleyes:

---

Pete, we arent even attempting to defend our performace. We were hopeless, simple as that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pete

By having a go Cork City ye seem to have forgotten Drogs gained its their first ever Uefa ranking points the previous season.
:rolleyes:

---

I was having a go at GavinZac for his usual snide comments and reminding him that we are finally contributing something to the co-efficicent, something which Cork did not do this year, hence the stupidity of having a pop at us. Hence the word "some" before the word "langers"

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cymro

The Armenians will probably be seeded next year Pete. They were among the higher non-seeds. Obviously it depends on what they do in the next round and beyond.

---

Be honest now
did you just make that up ?

I can't see any situation where the Armenians are seeded in next seasons Champions League QR1 draw. They would need so many results that they would end up in the Champions League/UEFA group stages before they got them!

Drogheda win brings us to 0.833
Pats I hope can pull off a draw, it's not impossible. Thats takes us to 1.000 and I'd be happy enough going into Round 2!

Would Drogheda take points off any of these ??

Blackburn Rovers Eng 36.618
OB Odense * Den 15.129
Standard Liège Bel 14.594
Vålerengen IF * Nor 11.509
Dunfermline Athletic Sco 10.064
FC Midtjylland * Den 9.129
AaB Aalborg Den 7.129
Fredrikstad FK Nor 6.509
SK Brann Bergen * Nor 6.509
Lillestrøm SK * Nor 6.509
AIK Stockholm * Swe 4.478

* If they win through the first round

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by higgins

Would Drogheda take points off any of these ??

Blackburn Rovers Eng 36.618
OB Odense * Den 15.129
Standard Liège Bel 14.594
Vålerengen IF * Nor 11.509
Dunfermline Athletic Sco 10.064
FC Midtjylland * Den 9.129
AaB Aalborg Den 7.129
Fredrikstad FK Nor 6.509
SK Brann Bergen * Nor 6.509
Lillestrøm SK * Nor 6.509
AIK Stockholm * Swe 4.478

* If they win through the first round

---

They would have a good chance against Dunfermline. Decent chance against the lower teams there as well.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

They would have a good chance against Dunfermline. Decent chance against the lower teams there as well.

---

Was thinking myself they'd have an even chance with any of the teams from Dunfermline down.

I think ye are getting ahead of yourselves as Drogs have 2nd leg to get past. :o

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by robbiesdrogs

im not been over ambitiotous but i reckon with the way the draw is going the day is coming where an irish team draws whatever team from england goes intertoto and beat them.seen blackburn a few times last year and they werent great at all.add in the seasons not kicked off and a suprise could happen

---

Quote:

---

im not been over ambitiotous

---

Yes you are. You're in dreamland.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by higgins

Blackburn Rovers Eng 36.618
OB Odense * Den 15.129
Standard Liège Bel 14.594

---

Puts Pats task in a bit of perspective :eek: Oh well, I hear the beer is good over there. :D

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jerry The Saint

Puts Pats task in a bit of perspective :eek: Oh well, I hear the beer is good over there. :D

---

Tuborg. Damn fine.

Carlsberg wouldn't lace its boots.

:D

Shels Cork Bohs and Derry have upset the seeds in previous years.
Why not Pats ?

If you're serious about winning leagues and making progress in europe then the likes of Odense shouldn't hold much fear. They're better and they probably will win through but it's not Deportivo, Steau or PSG you're up against.

I think we may see a close game tomorrow.
Irish teams in the past few season have all managed to raise their game when required. Fingers crossed...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by higgins

Would Drogheda take points off any of these ??

Blackburn Rovers Eng 36.618
OB Odense * Den 15.129
Standard Liège Bel 14.594
Vålerengen IF * Nor 11.509
Dunfermline Athletic Sco 10.064
FC Midtjylland * Den 9.129
AaB Aalborg Den 7.129
Fredrikstad FK Nor 6.509
SK Brann Bergen * Nor 6.509
Lillestrøm SK * Nor 6.509
AIK Stockholm * Swe 4.478

* If they win through the first round

---

FC Midtjlland are losing 3-2 to Icelandic after the first leg and Lillestrom were knocked out by some Luxembourg team. Just shows that teams there are nothing to be afraid of.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by higgins

Shels Cork Bohs and Derry have upset the seeds in previous years.
Why not Pats ?
I think we may see a close game tomorrow.
Irish teams in the past few season have all managed to raise their game when required. Fingers crossed...

---

Fingers and toes. Hour and a half to go, and it's just been confirmed to me that it's definietly on in McDowells via the internet. If you're a Pats fan reading this, get yourself down there. I'm much more hopeful than optimistic TBH, but you just never know.....

Both Lithuanian teams through with wins.

Zimbru are out after a draw today. Nistru losing on the night and on aggregate. If it stays that way, then a win for Drogheda tonight and one draw in the second round would see us no worse than 34th (assuming no-one catches us, which is unlikely). That's up one place on where we started.

5 games down & no wins this season :(

Real step backwards this season.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pete

5 games down & no wins this season :(

Real step backwards this season.

---

It's obvious this summer season isn't improving things and last season was just a fluke...back to the winter!:p

Update.

Moldovan team won on the night but lost on penalties; forgot they had another team still in it. 34th a possibility, but at least we won't be going backwards and will still be seeded for the CL next year, and probably a similar situation with regards the UEFA as for this year, unless Derry get in.

Dunfermline or Fredrikstad would be the two best teams for Drogheda to get in the next round as they are living off their countrie's co-efficient.

Will Drogheda have their own co-efficient next season?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DmanDmythDledge

Dunfermline or Fredrikstad would be the two best teams for Drogheda to get in the next round as they are living off their countrie's co-efficient.

Will Drogheda have their own co-efficient next season?

---

Club coefficient is only earned from the proper stages onward so unless they get to the 1st round at least and get a result there then no .

Bad night for the coefficient. We are placed 7th out of 13 countries in the Northern Section of the UEFA Cup Qualifying Round 1. Chances are that Sweden Finland and Norway will grab the fair play places as they have done for the past few seasons and move both Irish teams to the unseeded section.

We needed to pass out Lithuania and have failed to do that.
they have 1.333 to our 0.833 and have 2 teams left in it.

A good draw for Drogheda could give us a chance to catch them but it looks like we'll be back in the unseeded side next season.
Derry and Shels got results in the 3rd Round of european competitions in previous seasons so why not Drogheda to pull out two 2nd Round wins and a 3rd Round draw or two :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by higgins

so why not Drogheda to pull out two 2nd Round wins and a 3rd Round draw or two :)

---

Unlikely becaue Doolin, the Board and the fans only care about the league this year.
Sorry, but don't hold out too much hope for the co-efficient this year. We've contributed 1.5 points so far. If we get Dunfermline we may contribute more.

By the way Stephen Kenny was at the match tonight looking worried;)

AIK Solna are currently 7th in the Swedish League as far as I can recall . I saw a League table for Sweden earlier this week, about 2 weeks old. So they are not as strong as last season.

Helsingborgs is not a bad draw for Drogs as they are only 10th in the Swedish League. 2nd best draw after Dunfirmline.

Home Win and an Away draw.
If 1st in the Eirom league can't do away with 10th in the Swedish League it's the biggest sign yet that we've gone backwards this season.

Great Draw for Drogheda and probably a full house in Dalymount with hooped jerseys looking out for their hero.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by higgins

Home Win and an Away draw.
If 1st in the Eirom league can't do away with 10th in the Swedish League it's the biggest sign yet that we've gone backwards this season.

---

I don't think its a foregone conclusion but the odds are good for Drogs. Helsingborg are not as good as Malmo, Djungardens or even Hammarby. Helsingborg did how beat Estonian team 9-0 on aggregate as opposed to Drogs 4-1 win against inferior opposition...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by higgins

Home Win and an Away draw.

---

Which would put us ahead of Moldova.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by higgins

Home Win and an Away draw.
If 1st in the Eirom league can't do away with 10th in the Swedish League it's the biggest sign yet that we've gone backwards this season.

Great Draw for Drogheda and probably a full house in Dalymount with hooped jerseys looking out for their hero.

---

Take one look at Irish teams results in Europe this season and compare that to Swedish teams in Europe.

Lads,
we 34th and with moldova teams all out and Hungary teams in trouble - next year could see us up to 33rd if Drogs get a one win at least!

I think some people are watching a different game to the rest of us !

Theres two reasons we need a higher coefficient. Thats to become seeded in the Champions League and the UEFA Cup. Thats for starters, we can look at 2nd Round automatic qualification in a few years time.

Champions League: We're high enough now to be seeded so job complete

UEFA Cup: We're floating at about 7th or 8th from around 14 teams from the Northern Region that go into the Northern Section of the draw. Passing Moldova won't do us any good at all.

Lithuania and then Finland are our targets.

HOWEVER!!!
Norway have now gone from 19th to 18th I think it is and will go straight into the 2nd Round. In effect they have lowered the number of teams from the Northern region in the first round. If things stay like they are we should be seeded! thanks to Norway, not ourselves...

Job complete ?

Being seeded/unseeded doesn't actually count for that much in my opinion. There is about a 20% probability of drawing a team from a league that is significantly stronger or weaker than the norm. So essentially that means a 10% chance of drawing either a really strong side or a 'weak' side (not that Drogheda even saw that great a benefit from drawing the lowest ranked side in the draw). Hence my point. 80-90% of european games in the first round will be between two sides of relatively similar ability. And if you're seeded there's a pretty good chance of getting a side from Kazakhstan, Armenia or Azerbaijan, and that is not something you want. Think about it would you prefer a Lithuanian/Latvian/Finnish side to journeys over to, essentially, Asia? I know what I'd rather have and i think the results from this year back that up.

The main reason for coefficients is basically bragging rights over other leagues and a yardstick for how your league measures up, until you get to the stage where entering at the second round is a possibility, and realistically that may never happen for Irish sides, or at least not for several years yet.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cymro

The main reason for coefficients is basically bragging rights over other leagues.

---

The main reason is to give UCD fans something to do/ another reason to moan.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cymro

Being seeded/unseeded doesn't actually count for that much in my opinion. There is about a 20% probability of drawing a team from a league that is significantly stronger or weaker than the norm. So essentially that means a 10% chance of drawing either a really strong side or a 'weak' side (not that Drogheda even saw that great a benefit from drawing the lowest ranked side in the draw). Hence my point. 80-90% of european games in the first round will be between two sides of relatively similar ability. And if you're seeded there's a pretty good chance of getting a side from Kazakhstan, Armenia or Azerbaijan, and that is not something you want. Think about it would you prefer a Lithuanian/Latvian/Finnish side to journeys over to, essentially, Asia? I know what I'd rather have and i think the results from this year back that up.

The main reason for coefficients is basically bragging rights over other leagues and a yardstick for how your league measures up, until you get to the stage where entering at the second round is a possibility, and realistically that may never happen for Irish sides, or at least not for several years yet.

---

I don't agree with you. Seeding in the UEFA is a massive advantage because the draw is divided in regional groups. There's no trips to Asia here and all the unseeded teams are very beatable. The unseeded teams in the Northern regions conceded plenty of goals this year - and I include Pats in this - so it is clearly more advantegous to be seeded. Also only two unseeded teams won their ties in the Northern region this year (out of 16 matches) so there is a clear link between being seeded and winning the tie.

Champions League is different. There are a number of decent unseeded teams but being seeded has helped LOI teams in recent years. There are a few noticeable exceptions but the LOI representatives have predominately progressed a round in this competition when they were seeded.

I also don't agree with your assessment that 80% of teams in the first round are of similar ability. It must be remembered that these are cup games and cup games by their nature can throw up surprises. Teams are also unfamilar with each other and in many cases are over-cautious in their approach to these games simply because they know nothing about the opposition.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cymro

(not that Drogheda even saw that great a benefit from drawing the lowest ranked side in the draw).

---

Compare the benefit of going through despite one awful game to the punishment that Pats were handed for not being seeded in the Uefa.
If you're unseeded, then I would say that (at the level the EL is at - which would be upper half of the non-seeds) you have about a 50% chance of getting a beatable team - in fairness, while Irish teams have a good chance against the Scandinavian sides, the top sides over there would always be favourites to go through.
On the other hand, if a team is seeded, then there's a roughly 50% chance that they draw a team that they're certain to go through against. The difference between seeds and non-seeds in the UEFA is that non-seeds need a good draw to have a chance of going through, whereas a good draw for the seeded team virtually guarantees them passage.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ifk101

I don't agree with you. Seeding in the UEFA is a massive advantage because the draw is divided in regional groups. There's no trips to Asia here and all the unseeded teams are very beatable. The unseeded teams in the Northern regions conceded plenty of goals this year - and I include Pats in this - so it is clearly more advantegous to be seeded. Also only two unseeded teams won their ties in the Northern region this year (out of 16 matches) so there is a clear link between being seeded and winning the tie.

Champions League is different. There are a number of decent unseeded teams but being seeded has helped LOI teams in recent years. There are a few noticeable exceptions but the LOI representatives have predominately progressed a round in this competition when they were seeded.

I also don't agree with your assessment that 80% of teams in the first round are of similar ability. It must be remembered that these are cup games and cup games by their nature can throw up surprises. Teams are also unfamilar with each other and in many cases are over-cautious in their approach to these games simply because they know nothing about the opposition.

---

I agree that the UEFA Cup is different to the Champions' League, but that's about all I agree with from this.

I think at least in the Champions' League the two teams in any given tie will be of relatively similar ability. UEFA Cup is different because you often get teams who are nowhere in their league system qualifying via a cup. In Champions' League it is definitely evenly matched-nearly all the ties were decided by the odd goal or two this year.

Seeding is overrated. I think St. Pats might have got through had they not drawn Odense, likewise, Drogheda may have struggled had they got a team that wasn't from San Marino, and they still couldn't eat them in the away leg!

Conversely I doubt 80% of the draws that the Welsh sides could have got had they been seeded would have yielded a much different result. We a) aren't quite good enough, although we're getting there, and b) aren't match fit when the games are played.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cymro

Being seeded/unseeded doesn't actually count for that much in my opinion.

---

Sorry but that is rubbish.

Seeding is a massive advantage in the Uefa Cup & is pretty much guarantees progress to the 2nd round. Even in the CL you have more or less 50% chance of drawing easy countries like Andorra, San Marino, NI, Wales etc...

:rolleyes:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pete

Sorry but that is rubbish.

Seeding is a massive advantage in the Uefa Cup & is pretty much guarantees progress to the 2nd round. Even in the CL you have more or less 50% chance of drawing easy countries like Andorra, San Marino, NI, Wales etc...

:rolleyes:

---

Instead of rolling your eyes and calling it rubbish could you please actually read through the last post and think about some of the points I made. 80% of the time whether you're seeded or unseeded you'll face a team of roughly similar ability.

Again, Lithuanian, Latvian etc teams are probably not a huge difference in standard to NI and Welsh sides, as results have shown, certainly in terms of Welsh sides anyway. And you're more likely to meet a side of average ability rather than exceptionally strong or weak.

And of course being unseeded means you might get lucky and draw an Eircom league side for a comfortable passage through. :D

(That comment was tongue in cheek fyi, but if you're going to be childish about this then so will I.)

To sum up seeding is useful but hardly the be all and end all. bigmac I see your point and agree to an extent but maintain that most of the time you're likely to get a side of fairly similar ability regardless of seeding. The St Patricks and Drogheda scenario is more a fluke example of both extremes rather than the par for the course if you will.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cymro

80% of the time whether you're seeded or unseeded you'll face a team of roughly similar ability.

---

If thats the case why did the seeded team win over 80% of the matches this year?

Of course it makes a difference, even if only a slight one. You might be slightly better than them rather than slightly worse

Ourselves and Drogheda had the same co-efficient point but they were seeded and we weren't. They got the worst team in the draw, we got the best team in the draw (co-efficient;y speaking anyway)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by micls

If thats the case why did the seeded team win over 80% of the matches this year?

Of course it makes a difference, even if only a slight one. You might be slightly better than them rather than slightly worse

---

Of course it makes a slight difference, but my argument is not a general one but one applied to a specific club.

My point is that club X is not going to find it too much harder to get past FBK Kaunas than they will to get past Linfield or Pyunik. There may be a slight difference but it isn't worth making a huge deal out of.

The majority of seeded teams did win their ties but they were generally close over two legs. TNS losing out on away goals, Linfield by 1, etc. I can only think of about 2 or 3 occasions where one side was well and truly stuffed in Europe this year and that's in all competitions.

People appear to be getting slightly mixed up with cause and effect again (not for the first time).

Seeding and coefficients in general only reflect how well the League is doing over a defined time period.

The League has generally improved quite a bit, comparatively, over the last few years and this is reflected in the fact that unseeded EL clubs beat and drew with a number of seeded clubs over the past few years. This resulted in the EL clubs becoming seeded (CL) or close to seeded (UEFA).

However, as the coefficients and therefore seedings, work on a 5 year rolling average they will always lag the "realtime" comparative level of the League. This is precisely why Irish teams won when they weren't seeds (the League was comparatively on the up) and conversely why seeded Swedish teams kept losing (their League was on the way down).

Therefore the assumption that seeds are a given to go through is patently ridiculous. The standards of Irish football has dropped this season due to a number of factors and this is reflected in the results (whether this is a blip or a longer term issue will become apparent over the next few years).

Coefficients are fine as long as the limitations are acknowledged, but some people seem to think of them and by extension seedings, as some sort of holy grail.

Never has the phrase "past performance is no guarantee of future return" been more relevant than in this discussion.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cymro

My point is that club X is not going to find it too much harder to get past FBK Kaunas than they will to get past Linfield or Pyunik. There may be a slight difference but it isn't worth making a huge deal out of.

---

They clearly will find it much harder, how is it not worth making a big deal out of when 80% of non seeded teams found it too hard......even if its only a slight difference in quality its one that clearly makes a difference in who qualifies