Originally Posted by
elatedscum
So assuming Portugal win against Finland (they've already qualified). Basically, if we win by 2 goals, we come second in the group, Finland come third, Bulgaria come 4th.
But when it gets to the best 7 of 8 second placed qualifiers, only the results vs the first and third teams count. So we'd have 0 points and have a -4 goal difference. So, it's possible to qualify under those circumstances but unlikely.
However, if we one by a single goal, we could go through on goals scored. We'd need to outscore finland across the games excluding the portugal ones, so 1-0 would have us level which means we come 3rd. 2-1 is enough for us to win the group, but Bulgaria still come last. However as CSAD said, if we win 3-2 or 4-3, then we come second and bulgaria come third.
And in that case, we'd have 3 points and a -2 goal difference, which should be enough to qualify, but not definitely. It's further complicated by Russia being kicked out and how their results will be counted for the 2nd place team in their group and Ukraine's group being postponed to April.
Anyway, I hope the boys know if they're 3-0 up, going into the last few minutes, they've got to throw the ball into their own net twice.