Now we wait for the scientists to come up with something and hope this bug doesn't like sunshine.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Printable View
Now we wait for the scientists to come up with something and hope this bug doesn't like sunshine.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
It's way too early to hang your hat on a pattern, there's still a steady rise in numbers of total confirmed cases, as opposed to the recovery rate.
In Ireland the Dep of Health stopped releasing figures for the overall number of tests done from the 24th March onward.
I'm finding this all very hard today. I never thought I'd ever say this, but i can't wait to get up some morning and drive into the office. I think I'll even be able to enjoy the traffic.
Things were going quite well this morning (considering the situation). You guys don't know this about me, but I'm a landlord (Don't hiss and boo, I'm one of the decent ones). One of my tenants has lost his job. They are an immigrant family, and his wife doesn't work, so for now they have nothing coming in. Another tenant has been furloughed under the 80% scheme they have running up here. So i spoke to the agent this morning, and he's going to see what tenant #1 can pay, but ultimately i think i'll have to take this one on the chin. I can't get blood out of a stone, and they are good tenants so i don't want to lose them. I spoke to tenant #2 myself on the phone and explained I was temporarily cutting her rent to give her a bit of slack and literally had her crying down the phone saying thank you.
But the daughters school have been dreadful today. The teacher who ordinarily takes her year is off on maternity leave, but has decided to come back. We were told shortly after 2pm today that that will be happening on Monday morning, and the teacher who has been taking the class since September is out the door. It just feels like insanity in the midst of all this. So we had to break the news to her this evening. She was upset, but from the WhatsApp group the parents have some kids took it a lot worse than she did.
And in the middle of all this I'm trying to do a day job, and we've had to cancel the holiday we had planned for the summer.
It feels like the whole thing is being held together by duct tape, fingernails and a level of good luck that probably isn't going to sustain itself. It's mentally and emotionally draining, and a month in we're still closer to the start than the end. As I sit here typing this i'm exhausted. I should probably go to bed, and i will shortly, but if i didn't find a way to scream this out into the void I don't think i would have slept.
2020 feels like a dead loss already.
I imagine the majority of people are in the same boat on this. We are having to react to prolonged confinement for the first time in our lives and the denial of choices we have always enjoyed. The longer this goes on the tougher it gets and it will take more of a mental toll on society. The only thing we can take out if all this is to try and not take the freedom we enjoy in normal times for granted anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
Oh yeah. This is a mental health time bomb.Quote:
Originally Posted by D24Saint
I assume rates of PTSD among doctors and nurses are going to be awful
So true. I’m usually self-contained and quite like solitude. (Years back, when I was finishing my PhD, I rolled back my office chair at home and realised I hadn’t set foot outside for 21 days. I just shrugged and carried on…) This is tougher. I've work to do and no focus or interest in doing it. Writer’s block is the polite term, but it’s pure stress.
It’s stress because Mrs Grise has her first shift today on a ward where every patient has Covid-19. She’s nursed through swine flu and avian flu; once nursed a convicted rapist so dangerous there was always a guard present and nurses went in in twos with strict orders not to speak to him; had a needle stick injury recently that was a worry for a while, but this is the first time I’ve ever felt petrified for her safety. And she’s so calm about it - she says it’s a privilege to be able to nurse through this. It's just overwhelming.
Your wife sounds like a pretty badass lady, EG. Best of luck to her.
She puts up with me. Nuff said, John!
Coincidentally it's out tenth wedding anniversary tomorrow. Me doing her a packed lunch is not quite what we'd planned for it. Fingers crossed we'll all soon be out of this well and sane and back to normal.
Sometimes the thanks button really doesn't get the job doneQuote:
Originally Posted by Eminence Grise
But a post like that always does. Much appreciated on Mrs Grise's behalf.
How is everybody holding up?
All a bit stir crazy, but holding up ok. Both kids get material from school, so that put some kind of routine in place - we suffered a bit without that material during the Easter holidays.
I was sleeping badly due to just not being tired at the end of a day of no physical exercise, so I've started doing loops of a road within 2km of home. Adds up to about 24km each day, so I'm up to about 160km over the last 2 weeks.
I've never played as much online chess in my life as the past month.
Funny, I've been playing online chess too, but just too lazy to properly study it, which is the way to improve (as opposed to pass time)
I find I'd rather not do something and have something to do, than do it and have nothing to do. If that makes sense.
I've been the same - good days and bad. Been working from home since Friday, 13th March. Took about two weeks to get used to being in work, but not being in the office. I found the four day weekend over Easter tough - think I missed the structure of work! Also, Varadkar's three week extension to the lockdown was a bit of a shock.
I improved over the last week, forcing myself to get out and go for a walk every day, so I think I'll be ok for the next two weeks. Been watching how the lifting of restrictions in Austria and Denmark are going for some clues on how things might go here after the May bank holiday. It'll be nice just to be able to see and talk to other people!
Up and down myself with whole thing. The structure of working & everyday life seem mundane normally but when they are gone your realise how vital they are to your wellbeing. Without work and a game on Friday to keep occupied is challenging. I find taking breaks now and then from the news helps & I don’t do social media.
It's a strange one, I've said a few times that I think this is my ideal way of living and I've only been half joking. I missed the work routine a little in the early stages but I've got used to working from home. I'm a very solitary person at the best of times, never really went to the pub, moved away from home at 20 so well used to only communicating with parents on the phone etc. Still see my wife every day and get to spend more time with the dog and cats. Can still go for a walk, run or cycle, etc. Routine hasn't really changed all that much outside not going into work. In many ways it's made me more sociable in terms of being more in contact with friends on what's app etc.
I appreciate it's a lot harder for others, wife included, her job can't really be done from home and they were in the middle of a critical project as this kicked off, so she was actually in something like 20 days in a row. She speaks to her parents, brothers and sisters every day and would be used to seeing them all most weeks, especially her younger nieces and nephews. We're only around the corner from her parents, so when we're walking the dog we stand in the garden for a chat most evenings. Their road has also started a nightly sing song, where people gather on the road at a safe distance and contribute, songs, jokes and poetry, it's a nice touch and it's brought people together in a different sort of way too.
If it stretched on a lot longer I think I'd start to find it more difficult, particularly if any loved ones were ill, but so far been lucky on that front.
I'm working from home since 13th March. To keep a certain routine, I'm more or less treating my day as if I would go to work - get up at the same time, turn my laptop on and off around the same time when I would usually get into work/go home, etc. It's not the same, but it creates some kind of structure in daily life at least.
Not being able to meet people who aren't living in the same household isn't great when you're in a single person household. That's what I'm missing most. Usually, I'm quite content on my own, but this is a bit too much solitude. At least, there's phones, Skype, Zoom, WhatsApp etc.
As I'm not from here and all my relatives are in my home country, I currently have no idea when I will be able to see them face to face again. I guess I won't go there until quarantine on arrival restrictions have been lifted, and who knows when that will be.
I've never realised how much I enjoy watching old footage of Chris Benoit.
Being a highly responsible citizen I went for my pre booked test this morning at the deCode genetic facility. I suspect that when I offered the honest answer that I had a bit of an usual dry cough 2 weeks ago, for 10 seconds 3 days in a row, my test was put on a fast track and I received the result same day by sms at 5pm instead of the usual 2 days.
It simply read,
'You do not have the COVID-19 disease'.
but just when you think "that's cool", they give you the following disclaimer to keep any lingering Woody Allen hypochrondria at full alert,
'This finding does not preclude you from getting the disease later. If you later become ill with flu-like symptoms, fever, bone pain and cough, you need to evaluate if a new sample is needed.
Iceland managed to reach the highest rate of confirmed infections in the world per population. Altogether 1770 cases in a population of 365,000, fortunately the much mentioned curve has been on the downward part of a V slope for 2 weeks, hitting a new rock bottom yesterday with only 2 confirmed cases from 400 tests. That means there's very few in the untested general population who are carrrying the virus.
Therefore it does looks promising for football league competitions to proceed as planned on June 6th, if the LOI is still in handbrake mode my local team could do with a loan of Jack Byrne, i.e. if he can handle the upward adjustment.
Great wrestler, horrible human.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kingdom
Check out the recent "dark side of the ring" episode about himQuote:
Originally Posted by Kingdom
I actually don't see how that promising, as it means that the vast majority of the population are still vulnerable to infection, doesn't it?Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
I think what a lot of people are hoping is that the virus is actually much more prevalent in general population than we think, and that much more people have had it (suffering only mildly or not at all) and are now immune to it than we think.
Unfortunately, there are questions now about whether even having it and recovering from it results in immunity to it.
They might actually be able to eradicate it on the island. I think I read that they're leading the world for tests per capital. As long as they keep the borders closed ... so no Jack Byrne!Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
They've tested 1/8th of the population (as has the Faroes).
We've tested 1.8% by comparison, the Yanks have tested 1.2% and the Brits are at 0.7%.
Keeping the borders closed is the harder part though. Where will all the wives come from for starters?
My understanding of Iceland is that the fishermen don't use them while they're at sea, so there's enough to go around.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
"Promising for football league competitions to proceed as planned on June 6th".Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
It's not as if the virus would be eradicated but it would have run its course for now as an active agent. I think that's the main precondition for sport to commence.
Strange as it may seem, tourists/visiting professional footballers (eg. Jack) are exempt from the advised 2 week quarantine for returnees, it's a medical fact here that such people are not regarded as a viral threat :)
Sorry, I misunderstood and thought you were talking about football in general getting back up and running, not just in Iceland.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
Probably that's what Ireland will be looking at, lifting restrictions completely over a 6 week period from the time the new confirmed case rate has bottomed out.
Hi everyone, I'm following developments from Canada - and the numbers in Ireland are actually shocking. The government is getting praise as are the Public Health Officers, yet with over 15000 cases, Ireland's per capita rate is higher than The States and The UK, it's nearly half the figure of here in Canada. Comparably sized countries have a fraction of Ireland's total - Croatia is under 2000, Slovenia under 1500, New Zealand has absolutely crushed the curve and has been in single-figures for new cases for the past week. So can anybody pinpoint what's going on that has caused the figures to be so high - is there a failure of public policy? Are people defying public health recommendations in large numbers? Did that last rush to the pubs lead to high community transmission? Or was it the thousands returning from Cheltenham?
You can't compare our figures with the US and the UK, who aren't taking it remotely as seriously.
For a start, the Brits are only including deaths in a hospital, and I think the US are the same. More than half our recorded deaths are in nursing homes - which are explicitly not included in the US/UK figures. They weren't included in the French figures either, and then a week ago they added them in and their death toll increased from 500 per day to 1,500 for one day.
Our testing figures are 2-3 times what the US/UK rates are too, so it's only natural that there'd be more cases found here. The reality is that infection rates in the US and the UK are way higher than being reported.
Thread on twitter about it here: https://mobile.twitter.com/Care2much...19591090155523
Basically, we're including all deaths from the virus, but other countries are (e.g. UK) are only including hospital deaths, or disregarding unconfirmed cases
In the US, I know one example from two weeks ago, where a large production plant in a mid-west State had approx 250 positive tests among it's employees causing the plant to be shut down, and this figure accounted for more than half of the hitherto confirmed cases in the state itself at that point.
I thought that to be eye-opening.
no one can be sure but it was reported last week that there was a cluster in westmeath that could be strongly linked to cheltenham...Quote:
Originally Posted by samhaydenjr
https://www.independent.ie/world-new...-39121412.html
it was completely stupid to let it proceed as it did and the attempts by the horsey people to justify the decision is a nonsense.
interesting article re cheltenham here...
https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rac...head-1.4234957
Irish response was slow off the mark initially, allowed flights to land from Italy for a rugby match that was eventually cancelled, and allowed the Cheltenham crowd home without (to the best of my knowledge) any checks or tracking of their subsequent contacts or movements. That probably contributed a lot. Since measures were taken, I think they've been followed by and large, although there are always exceptions...but maybe the cat was out of the bag by then. I'm not convinced the govt are deserving of all the praise they are getting for their response myself.Quote:
Originally Posted by samhaydenjr
Apart from that, as Stu said, our testing levels are higher than most, and when you test more, you find more cases. In all countries, the actual rate of infection will be higher than the recorded rate, but the more you test, the close the latter gets to the former.
to be fair we were one of the first countries in Europe to call off a big sporting event (Italy match) which decision was made fully two weeks before cheltenham took place. however, it seemed daft not to also ban flights from italy at the same time as a lot of the italian supporters still made their way here.Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
I think the flights were not cancelled because the assumption was they were coming here for the game, and if there's no game, then why come here? That's just my opinion, I haven't read anything from the government to support it.
You could ask a similar question about the pubs here - why did the government still allow them to open if you couldn't have more than 100 people inside? It wasn't until the the videos from Temple Bar went around that they realised they couldn't trust people to stay away, or pubs to keep to the new occupancy limits, so they were shut.
One thing I've noticed is that there's been more coverage of the Liverpool - Athletico game and its role in the numbers of positive cases in Liverpool than the amount of coverage of Cheltenham. I wonder why that is?
Could be that I read far more football-related media than horse racing.
A separate test should to be done on a random selection of the untested population, 4,000 should be enough in order to get an idea of what's happening with the general public.
Another one is to record recoveries and have a visible graph over a period of time showing the numbers of recovered v confirmed active cases, then one can simply see where Ireland stands. That's much more informative than to have to listen to a politician drone vague nonsense about how good we are at flattening the curve, or a medic honestly saying we don't do those figures in Ireland / we assume they recover over time.
Hire and train people to do the work, print out a medically qualified questionnaire, make contact with the people already confirmed, collect data on symptoms experienced if any and what was the date of full recovery - absence of symptoms.
Germany did something similar to this - tested the population of a town called Gangelt. Selection of the town was not random, as it was a hotspot for Covid-19, but they randomly selected 1000 of the population of the town, and between 15-16% tested positive for either the virus or the antibodies.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
That virus test wouldn't be reflective of Germany as a whole. I suspect the antibody test will not be an accurate reflection of immunity. Virus tests are done via a nose & throat swab but if a confirmed case develops no symptoms, that means the virus has been dealt with by the first line of defence - the innate immunity, and no antibodies would be called into play. The stats could be adjusted to include the number of those people who had tested positive - developed no symptoms - who are immune but have no antibody activity.Quote:
Originally Posted by osarusan
I see that Ireland has just released data on the numbers of recovered and it looks positive, that the peak has been reached, but another 7 days should confirm.
If so, then the slope back down should move at the same pace as the upward slope.
It's the slope back up again that I'm more worried about.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir