Is a Sinn Fein/AAA/PBP coalition possible?
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Is a Sinn Fein/AAA/PBP coalition possible?
There would want to be a good 20-25 years of austerity for that to become a reality.Quote:
Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954
There would really have to be an incredibly huge swing left for that to happen. Sinn Fein will be delighted to come away with somewhere between 25-30 seats, maybe a bit more on a really good day. The AAA/PBP would be doing well to get 6 or 7. Even throwing in 3 "Inds4Change", the 4 or 5 Soc Dems and the hard left Independents with them, it would be nowhere near 79.Quote:
Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954
This Dail is going to be as hung as any in the history of the state. Only thing resembling a stable government I can see is a minority FG/Lab coalition kept going with FF assent as it see's fit.
Irish elections are seldom truly national these days. There are 40 almost completely unrelated elections happening on Friday. For that reason I suspect SF and FF will exceed expectations. When telephone polls are being carried out people are being asked which party they will vote for, and people might be less likely to admit to voting for either party, but when it comes to the ballot box I think they will be more likely to vote for the local candidate of those parties.
Irish people tend to believe that political parties are full of crooks, but the lads in their own county aren't like the rest. Everyone is sure that in general FF are the party of the brown envelope and that the Shinners would know their way around a balaclava, "but we're lucky, the FF candidate here is the cousin of the owner of Kelly's Bar, and sure the SF candidate is a nice young woman with a young family so she would never have been involved in anything like that.".
I know SF have historically tended to underperform compared to opinion polls but their candidates will be better known know than at any previous election. A lot of them are councillors now rather than just an unknown name. It's a lot easier to assume that person you have never heard of is just a provo in a suit.
Conversely I could see independents not doing as well as the polls would expect. The boundary changes could have a hefty impact. Independents by their nature focus hard on the constituency. When those lines move the candidates from the big parties will pick up votes in the new areas by virtue of party loyalty, but independents get no such benefit.
I'll have a guess at...
FG 53
FF 39
SF 32
LAB 8
OTH 26
How is it possible that FF would be 14 seats behind FG? mother of God. Not saying you're wrong Walsall, but Irish people need to have a long hard look.
FG53+SF32+LB8+SD5= Nice (Impossible, but nice)
I'm just more petrified that FF can possibly be close to forming a coalition.
I don't see how. They'd only consider Fine Gael if they were the larger party, which remains unlikely, and Sinn Fein's membership doesn't seem stupid enough to go in with them as a junior party, in the unlikely event they'd have the numbers. They'll be happy to remain one of the central opposition voices.
Lots of reasons, but there's no way i'm showing my sums until you have a guess ☺Quote:
Originally Posted by BonnieShels
Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
That local political thinking does my head in.
It is kind of funny, that we are in a "recovery", yet FG wont win a majority, says a lot about the economic realities of the country
Anyway let me give a guess!
FG 59
FF 32
SF 30
Lab 7
SD 3
R 2
AAA 5
Green 1
Others 30
I did my working out earlier in the campaign. But with the swing that looked like it was happening to FF I moved 5 out of the FG column and into the FF one. If I undo that i'm remarkably close to youQuote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
FG 58
FF 34
SF 32
LAB 8
OTH 26
With that last poll i'm actually happier with that. In all the polls showing a move to FF the movement was within the margin of error, and with that last poll I think it might all just have been a quirk. I don't think the campaign has changed anything tbh
I still think FF will get a bounce in terms of the number of votes they get but they have a lot to do to translate increased votes into seats. They'll need to get that 2nd seat in constituencies to make big gains which will be very difficult.
Typical Irish parties, sneaking in 11 extra seats for themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
Really, lol. Well spotted. There might have been drink when i toted them up....:pQuote:
Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter
(or looking at it again..............OTHER includes SD 3, R 2,AAA 5 and the Green 1)
I also did it a few weeks ago, and if i had to do it now, I would add a few more to FF, and less off SF..............the FF vote is somehow still alive and kicking.......Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
I'm think SF will hold up well this time. Tomorrow's Indo will have the usual 'Gerry Adams sells drus to kids' election day headline, but I suspect that is serving them well among voters who might be considering voting for them. INM and RTÉ are as much a part of the establishment as the '3 Amigos', and they jumped the shark with the Late Late last Friday.
People are ****ed at that establishment. And the establishment have made it so obvious that they can't stand SF that I think people will vote for them out of spite. It's a bit like Trump in that regard
You keep saying "people" but the "people" have voted in a FG or FF government every single time this country has voted
They'll still be the top 2 parties this election too.
So the "people" are happy enough to see Adams and SF have their past dragged back up it seems
People eh?
And they'll do the same again. But it'll probably take FF and FG together to keep the eh... populace in line this time. That's NEVER happened before.
It's another 5 years of the same old same old but there's hope for the next time. Something worthwhile could rise out of the ashes of Labour yet. They could break bread with SF once Adams retires and in 5 years time there could finally be a government who make a few changes.
I'm not even after revolutionary changes. But someone might just tell RTE that a national broadcaster stopping programing twice a day for the ****ing Angelus just isn't acceptable this century
Taking my previous caveats about the polls, SF are the only ones that have moved beyond the margin of error the whole campaign (maybe Labour have in one or two). "People" may be annoyed at the establishment, it doesn't look like they're moving to SF from other parties or undecideds.Quote:
Originally Posted by backstothewall
Main problem for SF this time has been the economy, and Adams performance on it, rather than the (sometimes legitimate) criminality questions.
I got a letter in the door from Emmet Stagg this morning, announcing that new schools for the area are going to be approved "in 4 to 6 weeks". Every constituency analysis I've read has claimed he's as safe a seat as Labour has, so if he's pulling this kind of thing on the eve of the vote it must be looking really bad.
I went through the constituencies one by one attempting not to be biased.
Seems I may be biased towards Labour.
FG: 55
FF: 33
SF: 25
LB: 16
SD: 3
RN: 3
Others: 23
I came up with the following after going through each constituency on Paddy Power and taking the favorites to win a seat in each constituency. Eg 5 seater - I took the top 5 in the betting, 4 seater, top 4 and so on...
Fine Gael 55 (+1 C.C.) 56
Fianna Fail 40 *shudders
Sinn Fein 24
Labour 10
AAA / PBP 6
Social Democrats 3
Renua 1
Independents 18
The United Left Alliance doesn't exist anymore. Who's that?
Clare Daly - I'll change that. Jees.Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter
So I voted all the way down to 6. That's was surprising.
Gave SD my 1st pref as my second is a shoe-in.
Also voted for an SF candidate for the first time ever.
(Not including my 2nd pref for Marty in the presidential.)
Went down to 5 myself, and the 5th was a last minute decision.
Apparently turnout is only totalled around 57%, which is a terrible shame.
Exit poll indicates huge drop for Fine Gael, big rise for Fianna Fail, disaster for Labour, expected gains for Sinn Fein, monster "Independent/Other" vote. FG/FF only viable coalition, and can't see it happening.
23% for FF
What sort of retarded bunch of cretins are we?
Parochial, insular, I'm alright Jack, cronyist bullsh1t. Couldn't believe what I was reading tonight. Ireland deserves everything it gets.
i'd be very surprised if FF (aka an Ireland for all my cronies) got much support in the general dublin area.
The FF problem lies outside the capital
Almost feel like it's time to emigrate.
Unfortunately there's a rake of people outside of Dublin.Quote:
Originally Posted by placid casual
I'm out of here at grad. Feck it!
It's like marrying your abuser. We need to rename Stockholm Syndrome. The bank robbers had nothing on what we do to ourselves.
I've never voted FF but thats a bit much - FG and FF are one and the same - good to see them combined at less than 50% - thats a bit of progress I thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by BonnieShels
But they're not one and the same. Regardless of policy similarities that people consistently seem to argue, FF are doing what they always do and on the back of the last election and the preceding 3 years and all that came out since and it mattered not a jot.
It's mind boggling. I just can't get my head around how people saw FF as a positive option.
So what happens now?
Kenny out. Adams out. Try again in the summer?
Burton out first surely - Kenny will be under pressure - Adams no id say.
I could see Adams resigning on Easter Monday.
This Michael Collins guy in Cork. Is he any relation to the other one?
TBF Bonnie there isnt a whole lot between them................Quote:
Originally Posted by BonnieShels
I look forward to the 33rd Dail being helmed by Taoiseach Varadker, Tanaiste Kelly and Opposition leader McDonald.
Seriously though, when I first started voting ten years ago, I used to get really annoyed at candidates/supporters who lost blaming the "stupid" electorate for not knowing what was good for them. But ten years of watching poll results in this country, with a few exceptions, has shown me that a huge chunk of the Irish electorate - that I do think is very slowly getting smaller - have no idea how to rationally select candidates. Letting Fianna Fail off the hook so quickly is jaw-dropping to me.
The big news in Limerick was Sinn Fein finally getting Maurice Quinlivan over the line, and even with my antipathy towards Sinn Fein I have to give him credit. I wasn't surprised, but still strange seeing it. I think bigger news was Jan O'Sullivan hanging on, which is a minor miracle as far as I'm concerned.
In other news, hard to see Renua surviving as an an entity: as politically relevant now as the Christian Democrats, Identity Ireland or Fis Nua. Soc Dems will only retain their three and get no more, which is still a success, came very close in Dublin Central. Glad to see the Greens get representation again. God knows if the country can forgive Fianna Fail, we can forgive them, who had way less to do with the disaster.
Somebody described the FF vote as an abused spouse crawling back to their abuser... quite a good analogy
I think.
The livebloggers at the Leinster Leader - who were abused by FF'ers yesterday when they didn't applaud Kildare South's Sean O'Fearghail being elected - had the following to say this morning, which I think is apt:
Quote:
We’re a funny sort of voting nation.
We’re better at disliking people than liking them, so we tend to vote with revenge in our hearts rather than inspiration.
Often times if you managed to get elected, it's not because you're great - it's because you weren't somebody else. Some day it'll be your turn to be the wrong one.
We’re more likely to remember those who did things to us than did things for us, because eaten bread is soon forgotten.
We really don’t like people with grand visions or idealism. We all think we do, but the parties who do best will always be the least idealistic and most centrist.
If they move too far in any direction, we get a bit nervy. We prefer the fixers to the builders, evolution over revolution.
We like being told we’re great, and we don’t like being told we’re whingers, regardless of the truth in either sentiment.
Above all, we like people who are a nicer, more competent and more hardworking version of ourselves - people who are dead sound, can speak well, be well groomed, buy a round, answer the phone at 4 in the morning and fix every pothole worth fixing.
Good luck with that!
The latest talk seems to be that FF will abstain if Kenny is nominated as Taoiseach. Depending on how it all finishes up he will need a few independents to get him over the line assuming the various leftist parties all vote against him.
There's going to be motorways from Killarney and Dingle to Tralee JHR International Airport.