It's margin of error stuff. Wouldn't be to concerned. When FG hit 40%, thats when the fun starts.
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It's margin of error stuff. Wouldn't be to concerned. When FG hit 40%, thats when the fun starts.
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...x5HHko3RAfrbqQ
If only Fine Gael would get their heads outta the clouds!
The election campaign has, er, started. As in of now and on the 1st Feb. That's all.Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
And what's happening at the moment is "nonsense". When the guff settles down, I'll post a new poll.
Largely agree but all election campaigns are 'nonsense'. Hence my observation.
It's all nonsense, but the start of a campaign is complete and utter nonsense. Like I said, I'll post a poll later. Can we stop now please? I'm so bored with this conversation I might actually die.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/__1gFkyoB2e...ad_hamster.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
heh heh
Some of the independents have come together under the banner "New Vision", mind you, going by their work-in-progress website and the fact that their only candidate with a realistic hope of election is Luke "Ming the Merciless" Flanagan, they seem a non-starter already, even with David McWilliams backing.
Disappointed to see Ming associate with people like McGuirk - wouldn't have imagined they were "like minded", especially on social issues. On McGuirk, I see his "new vision" on not saving zombie financial institutions doesn't stretch to insurance companies that are based in his own consitituency.
Enda saying he won't have anything to do with "any programme involving Vincent Browne"
Inspiring stuff
That's because VB said that Kenny should "take a bottle of whiskey and a gun into a dark room"
Equally inspiring.
Browne isn't trying to convince people he can lead a nation...
Is Kenny going to avoid everyone who says bad things about him?
To be fair to Kenny - there's bad things and there's an insinuation that he should end his own life. No matter how glib or flippant they are, these sort of comments are pretty unacceptable. Bertie Ahern was castigated for similar comments and rightly so.
I'm not for one second defending Browne, I'm just saying for a man who wants to be Taoiseach, he looks awful thin skinned at the minute
You can't honestly think that a position like Taoiseach doesn't require someone who'll engage with everybody?
Getting into a bit of a tit for tat here but If he looks thin skinned for not tolerating such comments, then I guess he will have to put up with that. I don't think he looks thin skinned btw. Matter of opinion I guess.
Engage with everybody? So he should allow people say what they like about him?
Generally I agree that Kenny is looking pretty uninspiring at the moment, but he is correct to make a stand against this sort of thing.
The comment was crass, but once Kenny gets Browne to read out an apology on air before the debate, he must attend. He'll be Taoiseach regardless in three weeks, but the negative publicity will carry on until polling day if he carries out the boycott.
So on or around Feb 24th then? Fine.Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
;)
I don't think it's much to do with what Brown said, more Kenny and FG getting on their terms. Insisting it be on RTE too and someone other than Brown. Gilmore will probably say he doesn't care, and Martin will come out with more soundbites about it being about issues and not soundbites.
And btw, until TV3 comply with the terms of their licence in terms of coverage, they shouldn't be given exclusive things such as this.
In other news, rumour going around twitter, that Mick Wallace is running in Wexford.
Edit - He just announced same on VB, interesting, he could well win a seat.
How many candidates are the Socialists and the ULA overall running?
Where's Declan Ganley and Libertas disappeared to in all this election nonsense? I miss their sheer mentalness
Pretty sure ULA are running in 18 constituencies, including Healy's group in Tipp. Looks like the midweek poll was a rogue:Quote:
Originally Posted by ped_ped
FG 35% (-2)
Lab 22% (+3)
FF 17% (-1)
SF 13% (+1)
Oth 11% (0)
GP 2% (-1)
Boards are doing their own poll. The latest results show FF getting slaughtered.
http://www.boards.ie/vote/
Is this really the best possible use of taxpayers' money?
http://i54.tinypic.com/2n0n14k.jpg
I'd say election campaign funds come from 'donations' and fundraising, rather than the taxpayer.
Nope, Connolly is STILL SP.Quote:
Originally Posted by BonnieShels
FAO Jebus, think John Lyons is PBP but not sure if he's SWP/PBP or just randomer/PBP.
Well PBP is essentially a SWP front that has managed to attract some randomers. SP were asked to get involved at one stage time but after the SWP had more or less decided the programme so they declined. I suppose the rational is that now PBP have established their own identity the SP would lose theirs by becoming part of it. Also, the ULA is a lot looser as an alliance than PBP, in fact it is not really an alliance at all but an electoral slate.Quote:
Originally Posted by BonnieShels
Ah BP that was rhetorical.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
On the other point about Connolly. I didn't know he was still SP. Though once a leftie...
Quote:
Originally Posted by superfrank
At the risk of generalising, those who don't use the internet (the really old, and people from Roscommon) will be a lot more likely to vote FF. I have the horrible feeling that these promising internet results aren't going to be replicated on D-Day
True, but the fact that no party has a distorted percentage (except FF) after 8000+ votes, suggests that it is more credible than most online polls. In the real election, you can expect FF's vote to be at least double that, but this just shows they've problems attracting voters under 40 (most forum users) and that their recovery won't be as instant as you would expect.
It'll be interesting to see the results when they do the full job on it including transfers. Can't see an independent topping the poll, which the one for Wicklow suggested (his supporters are active on boards.ie and must be distorting the vote).
I take the point about online polls and FF, however, it'll be interesting to see how they manage their vote this time. Firstly, there's less vote to actually manage, and secondly at such low polls will their candidates stick to management plans? And that's before you add in independent FFers. In Wicklow I could see Provisional FFer Behan take a seat at the expense of the Officials because of this, and he may be (for some reason) more transfer friendly - he'll be back in the party quicker than you can say "I voted for the budget and the IMF deal" though, imo.
Ross is topping Dublin South too, by a distance. That's an odd one though. It's a 5-seater, 2 FF 2 FG 1G in the last election. FF nearly got a third seat too, but then Lee won the by-election with a landslide. FF have lost their established names there - Kitt retired and Brennan died. Anyway, I think the demographic on boards is skewed young, and it's showing in a preference for new blood above what I'd expect from the electorate as a whole. FG's 3rd candidate, Mathews, is miles ahead of their incumbents (Mitchell & Shatter). Granted, he looks a good candidate on paper, but I'd be surprised if that matters a damn come polling day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
It's a nice setup, I like it. It's not representative though, as peadar says. Generally, technophiles tend to be more liberal than technophobes, and Boards users in particular tend to be very liberal. "Online votes" are getting better, but they're still a mile away from a proper poll. The problem now being that there are very few actual proper polls any more, they either have crap sample sizes or they're phrased and focussed to go a particular way.Quote:
Originally Posted by superfrank
I noticed that yesterday, incredibly bad ad design; no background colour chosen. I left it there, because the idiot that commissioned it from another idiot deserves to pay for any actual clicks it gets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin
Whatever about the general numbers polled (for national polls), i'd have little faith in the follow up stuff like leadership satisfaction etc, as they can be totally skewed depending on the question asked. Do agree if they're going to regional breakdowns that they have to up the samples significantly.Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
Just on polls, did RTE really pay someone to do what seemed like just an average of the polls over the weekend? No spreadsheets in Montrose? If they were going to do such an analysis they could've at least used one of the several online and/or academic commentators who attempt to translate polls into seat numbers!
The wife was doing her nut over that "poll of polls". It seems to have used polls from all over the shop, including well before the dissolution. It's the kind of garbage you'd expect from Fox News.
Oh dear. I withdraw my earlier comments on this site about the use of statistics in sport being exceptionally retarded. The word exceptionally is clearly unwarranted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
I know you are all already glad you dont live in Monaghan (or Cavan for that matter) but now even more reasons have emerged. We have 3 independants running: 1, Jonathon Rainey whom I mentioned previously. 2. John McGuirk - Ex-libertas and am pretty sure I bumped into him years ago when had to do a speech at the Christian Solidarity Party Ard Fheis 3. Seamus Treanor - bread delivery man from the town who did well in the local elections but made some very unsavoury remarks about asylum seekers when speaking about their accommodation in Monaghan (which was highlighted on prime time some months back) and has therefore really put me off.
Really was hoping for an independant I could give a vote to but with the above dross, there arent really any viable options.
That boards.ie poll isn't too useful as a guide to any particular constituency as it's not a random sample so someone's 50 mates can skew a constituency poll hugely.
Time for a new poll yet, please??
When he does put up a new poll, it'll probably be most useful to ask 1st, 2nd, 3rd preferences.