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Latest IT Poll.
Dublin
Gay Mitchell (FG) 28%
Proinsias De Rossa (Lab) 25%
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 11%
Eoin Ryan (FF) 9%
Joe Higgins (Soc) 9%
Deirdre De Búrca (Green) 6%
Patricia McKenna (Ind) 5%
Eibhlín Byrne (FF) 2%
Caroline Simons (Lib) 2%
North West
Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) 20%
Marian Harkin (Ind) 19%
Jim Higgins (FG) 17%
Joe O'Reilly (FG) 10%
Pádraig MacLochlainn (SF) 9%
Declan Ganley (Lib) 9%
So the combined poll of the Left anti-Lisbon campaign outpolls Libertas by 23% I think that is quite significant in showing that at least in Dublin, it is these people, rather than Ganley's mob who had the ear of the electorate on the referendum. Great stuff for Joe here. Before the last Euro election he polled 2.5% and ended up with 5%. A small increase and doing well out of the transfers from Patricial McKenna and perhaps De Burca could see him through.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
I was discussing the Irish Times poll result yesterday with a couple of mates and Higgins may have found the perfect storm.
He always gets a respectable, if not necessarily competitive, number of votes from his core support.
Now throw into the mix that a whole heap of people don't want to vote FF this election but that there's always a reasonably large chunck of the same voter base that dislike SF and suddenly there's a whole lot of people looking for someone else to fill that gap.
A lot of people like that he's very up front about where he stands. I don't agree with his views but I've always had time for his direct and upfront manner. I still won't be voting for him I reckon he'll win over quite a few people that wouldn't normally consider him high up the ballot.
Interesting to note that combined De Burca and McKenna have 11 percent. Now I would expect to not wholly translate had just one candidate run because there are personality and support base issues but if it had translated to even 9 percent suddenly a Green would be in the hunt with transfers etc. It's a pity, albeit in no way a surprise, they couldn't have come to some kind of agreement as it would make matters a lot more interesting this day week (correct me if I'm wrong but I believe all of Europe does its counting Sunday).
I'd imagine tht McKenna's vote would affect Higgin's too. I know a couple of people voting for McKenna solely because she walked away from the FF/green coalition (in their eyes anyway). She'll definitely pick up her share of "protest" votes
knob jockey gallagher to top poll in, man - have people no shame -can we annex donegal off to the brits please
I'm voting on an anyone but Mary Lou basis. I was originally planning to vote for Eoin Ryan but I'm swapping to Higgins now. I think he has a good chance. He'll pick up most of McKenna's transfers. That could put him ahead of Mary Lou and he'll pick up most of her votes too if it does.
Was discussing this last week & she is most definitely a protest candidate. When the Greens were in government she couldn't get a protest vote so had to leave.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
Higgins has a chance for sure as he will surely pick up transfers across the spectrum. I wouldn't share his policies but I would see him as honest so he will get something down the list. The threat of Mary Lou might get Eoin Ryan more transfers.
Apparently 1st count cannot be released until 9pm next Sunday. Its a euro-wide thing.
a lot of bitterness there - jesus:eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by Bald Student
to me - a vote for FF shows that one is an A1 moron
In fairness to her, she was on record as being opposed to entering Government, opposed the all new stance on an EU referendum, and stood and lost for the party leadership. Only the timing was really suspect about her decision to leave. Hopefully De Burca will be dead and buried (incinerated?) politically, regardless.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Interesting FG spin doctors undemonising SF over the weekend (whilst giving Kenny and FG the deniability). Must have been aimed at getting some FG transfers to really go ABFF, even if that means SF.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Its more of a moral quandry than anything else.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
If Eoin Ryan holds onto his seat FF will talk that up saying they didn't lose any of their 4 seats. On the otherhand FG likely to use 1 of their 5 seats. If Ryan loses his seat a Shinner could get in. Hard to know which is the lesser of two evils. :o
Heard that alright but it doesn't appear to be a unified front on that one. Alan Shatter was on The Week in Politics and seemed to not be fond of the idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
Ryan losing could bring down the Government - it's obvious where the ABFF vote should go. Hopefully it'll be Higgins rather than Mary Lou anyway that pips him (whatever about ideology, people respect Higgins so he could well be transfer friendly).Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
I've been thinking the same actually. Quite pleased that Higgins is saving me the irritation of having to vote FF.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bald Student
Some people feel the same about a vote for Sinn Féin.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
Regardless, the situation is that De Rossa and Mitchell will get two of the Dublin seats, and so anyone voting tactically has to choose between Ryan, McDonald, Higgins, De Burca and McKenna, (oh, and Simmons, if you like) and weigh up the options for second and lower preferences.
whatever your opinions on SF - saying that you would vote for FF so Sf wont get in is a jokeQuote:
Originally Posted by John83
FF = a disgrace to this country
And i am amazed that they can still get 20% or so of the vite, and have poll toppers in Crowley and Gallagher - this country is a joke
Either way it would be great if Higgins gets it - and you know he just might.
But if SF get it I wont be losing any sleep
It is a European election. MEPs have limited scope & many people would not want a Shinner representing us in the EU Parliament. We could elect every FF candidate to Europe & it won't have any impact on the Dail.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
You have to weigh up the advantages and disadvantages of each candidate. I'm opposed to Fianna Fáil's economic policy but I'm in favour of their not blowing people up policy.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennocelt
A cynical man might say one of the following things:Quote:
Originally Posted by Bald Student
FF stood idly by while the Americans used Ireland as a base to facilitate bombing in the middle east
Key FF members were seriously implicated in a gun and bomb running scandal in the 1970's
FF exist as a result of a campaign of violence in the 1920's
None of these things make them terrorists or sympathisers and clearly FF are not the IRA, but we all need to note the not too recent past history.
Mary Lou appeals because of her clarity, coherence and efforts during the Lisbon campaign - she was extremely articulate and engaged. I have no time for SF normally - policies completely bonkers but she deserves credit for that effort
FF are moving to the more pro-European ALDE grouping in the European Parliament after this election. This will have a lot to do with how I'll vote, as I'll only be giving preferences to candidates who belong to pro-Lisbon parties and those in the more pro-European groupings in the EP.
However, the local elections will be a different matter altogether...
FG and Labour already in very pro european groupingsQuote:
Originally Posted by holidaysong
Yeah I know that. I'd be wasting my vote by just giving preferences to de Rossa and Mitchell though.. So for me it's going to have to be Ryan for the third Dublin seat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
By the way, here is a diagram of the voting patterns of the groups in the EP 2004-2009:
http://i497.photobucket.com/albums/r...EUpatterns.jpg
I can only assume the outlying EPP-ED group to the bottom right are British Conservatives - who will leave the grouping following this election.
Like I said, we have to weigh up each candidates advantages and disadvantages. When I balance her skills as an articulate speaker against other politicians' opposition to blowing people up, my scales tip a particular way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Angus
All this is just a nice way of saying..............."I will vote for FF":rolleyes:
Ever hear of a protest vote? - obviously not - go on be a good lad and vote for FF, or FF lite (Fg) or even the Labour party that appeals to all except common sense.
The Euro vote is not different at all - it could have a serious affect on Cowen and his continuing in power
And correct me if I am wrong but most of todays parties were decendent from the 1916 and all that - so any ideas of the past is just talking rubbish
As for me - i would even vote FG ahead of FF - eeeggghhh, shiver:eek:
No matter what - we will never get rid of the status quo - Irish people are too dumb for democracy
I have always seen her as an air head. She would one of the last Shinners I would vote for if had a gun to my head.Quote:
Originally Posted by Angus
Would you really vote for her if someone had a gun to your head? Are you suggesting SF hasn’t given up the gun? Oh sorry they never had it:rolleyes:. She's the new D4 (Castleknock i know) acceptable face/voice of SF. The unionists in the north must be looking on at all the parties here saying they'd never go into government with SF in bewilderment. I don't like them or trust them, but the way "Inda" & the greens have being carrying on the last few days is a joke. They are just as legitimate as the stickies of Labour. Ah yes, Sinn Fein the workers party have complete control of the Labour party now.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Military issues don't even need to come into the decision as I would vote for far left SF policies such that they even have policies these days. In the last GE they adopted the low corporation tax policy of all the other mainstream parties but I don't for one minute believe they really agree with that. They don't have any policies as everything is to "create an Ireland of equals" & no specifics.
With respect, that's comparing an apple with an ...erm, orange.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ringo
Outside the loopers in the so-called TUV who seem to want a return to good old fashioned majority rule and all that went with it there is a de facto acceptance pretty much everywhere else in Unionism that the price of having a nice, stable cleaved off canton to call ones own is not only going into government with Sinn Fein but sharing power with them. To be blunt -they ordered s**t and are now tucking in.
There is no such pressure on any political body down here and effectively they can have a higher bar. Hence if, say, Jacky Healy Rae announced he regretted the murder of a garda by members of the IRA (who were on an unsanctioned personal earner rather than "active service" incidently) but couldn't bring himself to condenm it then the government couldn't and wouldn't accept his support.
The NI government is like Dublin City council. AFAIK it doesn't raise much of any taxes & just has limited scope to spend their sub from the British government. I think its just a means of buying off politicians up there. If they don't agree toi "govern" together they don't get paid.
It cannot be equated to the formation of a government in the ROI with SF.
Well - we had the Euro Elections here today (as I'm in the UK)
Had great pleasure going into the polling booth - and not putting an "X" next to the entry which read "Libertas".
Felt quite good tbh
so did u vote for the BNP then?:p
popular enuff around here in east london - but then Millwall are the local team:)
Its got **** all to do with having a nice litle canton to ones own but rather preventing generations of working class Irish youth from cutting the **** out of each other. Ar*ehole.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lionel Ritchie
Which is why I put the word STABLE in italics AR. But there, I've put it in caps and bold for you now as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by AnnaghRed
:rolleyes:
Why not shove it up your ass while you're at it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Lionel Ritchie
Annagh, you seem determined to be offended, to say little of infracted or banned for personalised abuse and flaming. So please, have a cocoa, go to bed and call back tomorrow if you'd like to discuss this and offer opions in a more adult manner.
night, night.
Offended is right. I lost family and friends to "Sinn Fein" but i'd vote for them tomorrow if it stopped another pointless death. **** all to do with a cosy little NI.
Okay ...hold the horses. Why do I get the impression you think I'm a Sinn Fein supporter?Quote:
Originally Posted by AnnaghRed
Like yourself, if I lived in NI, I'd possibly vote for them (though it'd gall me to do so) if I thought it'd save life by creating a more stable political environment. What I was pointing out is that there is relatively little such imperative to include them down here on this side of the border.
That, from my perspective, is just the political reality -and one which the likes of the TUV wish to ignore.
I dont know where your allegiance lies, neither do I care. But i do object to you intimating that unionists, such as myself, who voted pro-GFA and accepted SF in government, did so for any other reason than to stop the slaughter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lionel Ritchie
I think unionists are used to it by now- southern parties have been saying it for decades, after all. It's widely regarded as a hypocritical attitude by FF, FG etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ringo
Indeed- little mention of cutting CT in this recent detailed statement by Mary Lou McDonald:Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/16451
Orange and lemon would be a better analogy. They're not distant countries knowing little of one another, but next door neighbors with the same party standing in both :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Lionel Ritchie
Opposing forced coalition with paramilitarism isn't 'loopy' per se. Traditional Unionist Voice seems an accurate enough name for what the party represents- it's certainly no odder than 'Ourselves', 'Labour', 'Soliders of Destiny', 'Conservative', or 'Gaelic Legions'...Quote:
Outside the loopers in the so-called TUV
TUV is not opposed to shared local government with nationalists.Quote:
who seem to want a return to good old fashioned majority rule
A nice, non-provocative term, that.Quote:
a nice, stable cleaved off canton to call ones own
Or alternatively, they lived with paramilitaries murdering thousands over decades, and don't want the paramilitaries' political wing in government until they, er, dissociate from paramilitarism?Quote:
To be blunt -they ordered s**t and are now tucking in
Pressure on political parties in the Republic is arguably as great now as at any time since 1921- economic catastrophe, collapse of tax income, vast unemployment and the rest. Compared to all that, whether or not Cowen or Kenny end up having to cosy with Mary Lou in Dail Eireann is relatively small beer. But, like I said, getting all high and mighty about it is hypocritical.Quote:
There is no such pressure on any political body down here and effectively they can have a higher bar
I'm failing to see where what you're saying here differs from my intimations.Quote:
Originally Posted by AnnaghRed
NI was inherently unstable and racked by sectarian violence (which sadly hasn't gone away but is much diminished).
NI then voted for and got the powersharing executive and, though it sometimes seems to lurch from one crisis to the next, is undeniably more stable and more peaceful than was hitherto the case.
Stopping the slaughter and creating a stable, bedded in powersharing administration are inherently linked in NI. One facilitated the other.
Meanwhile, back to the election campaign...
Will Joe Higgins win the last seat in Dublin?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2paLzGtQ8Fg