Election result

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25/05/2007, 12:25 PM
GavinZac

Quote:

Originally Posted by Risteard

Another two factors are timing of the SSIA and a Thursday election.

what has the thursday election got to do with anything?
25/05/2007, 12:26 PM
OneRedArmy

Based on idle work chat, two of the people I sit beside changed their vote from FG to FF on the basis of the leaders debate.

Hardly scientific, but indicative that Inda Kinny was a liability to FG and much like the recent British elections, it was as much the lack of a convincing alternative as the achievement of the incumbent that led to no real change.

People appear to have settled for getting rid of the PDs (which I wholly approve of) in favour of giving someone else a chance to keep an eye on the FF scheming and shennanigans.

Also worth noting that FG were coming from a very low base historically, they were decimated in 2002 and that left them a huge mountain to climb.

Is there any chance FF will have done well enough to make the Greens (plus a few independents if there are any left) a potential coalition partner or I am dreaming on that one?
25/05/2007, 12:28 PM
Dodge

Nice to see the PDs crumble

I hope and pray Labour do the decent thing and DO NOT go into government with FF
25/05/2007, 12:28 PM
OneRedArmy

Quote:

Originally Posted by GavinZac

what has the thursday election got to do with anything?

Presumably the point is its too close to exams for students to return home to vote?

Really don't think that would have a material effect tbh....
25/05/2007, 12:30 PM
Poor Student

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

I'm not too sure. Its very early days and counting always goes on into a second day in DSE. Gormley usually does very well in transfers and McDowell I would imagine less so. Not sure on Quinn, his first prefs are fairly high but its too close to call at this stage.

Pundits seem to be saying McDowell has the edge. He'll pick up transfers from FF and FG to a lesser extent.

My own constituency is going a bit weird. Gay Mitchell's FG seat seems to be lost to Labour or at least in big danger in and that's in spite of the Anne-Marie Martin factor.:p
25/05/2007, 12:31 PM
Poor Student

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

Presumably the point is its too close to exams for students to return home to vote?

Really don't think that would have a material effect tbh....

50% of FF's vote is believed to come from 65s and over so it could have somewhat of an impact.
25/05/2007, 12:33 PM
pete

As they say you get the government you deserve...

A vote for FF is a vote for Cowan as Taoiseach, Cullen, & Roche...

:(
25/05/2007, 12:34 PM
Dodge

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poor Student

Pundits seem to be saying McDowell has the edge. He'll pick up transfers from FF and FG to a lesser extent.

But the greens pick up transfers from everywhere

Quote:

My own constituency is going a bit weird. Gay Mitchell's FG seat seems to be lost to Labour or at least in big danger in and that's in spite of the Anne-Marie Martin factor.:p

Not that weird really. Eric Byrne has been a TD more often than not and has a strong loyal folllowing outside of Labour supporters. He's to the left of Mary Upton, who I have a lot of time for too. Is Catherine Byrne likely to get in or will FG be left with nothing?
25/05/2007, 12:37 PM
Poor Student

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodge

Not that weird really. Eric Byrne has been a TD more often than not and has a strong loyal folllowing outside of Labour supporters. He's to the left of Mary Upton, who I have a lot of time for too. Is Catherine Byrne likely to get in or will FG be left with nothing?

The two FF are safe, Mary Upton is safe. Gay Mitchell thinks O'Snodaigh is feeling the squeeze (he seems very insistent on highlighting a poor SF showing in Dublin) but the independent reports suggest Labour are closing in on the former Gay Mitchell seat.
25/05/2007, 12:41 PM
Poor Student

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

Is there any chance FF will have done well enough to make the Greens (plus a few independents if there are any left) a potential coalition partner or I am dreaming on that one?

They haven't even ruled out a majority government as of yet! So it's possible that FF will poll well enough to maybe only need the Greens to bridge it. I assume FF would prefer the Greens after the PDs as a coalition with Labour will require them to hand over a lot of cabinet positions due to Labour's reasonably decent seat haul.
25/05/2007, 12:43 PM
monutdfc

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poor Student

50% of FF's vote is believed to come from 65s

Is that for real or is my sarcasm detector on the blink?
25/05/2007, 12:46 PM
Poor Student

Quote:

Originally Posted by monutdfc

Is that for real or is my sarcasm detector on the blink?

No, really, it's what they reckon from research.
25/05/2007, 12:47 PM
pete

In Dublin Central based on 70% tallies looks like FF vote has increased. SF vote has fallen. RTE are predicting FF to lose a seat & close call between FG/Labour/SF. I think FF could keep 2 seats but with 3 candidates this time will depend on how the 1st preferences are distributed (Bertie does not share well).
25/05/2007, 12:50 PM
Dodge

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete

In Dublin Central based on 70% tallies looks like FF vote has increased. SF vote has fallen. RTE are predicting FF to lose a seat & close call between FG/Labour/SF. I think FF could keep 2 seats but with 3 candidates this time will depend on how the 1st preferences are distributed (Bertie does not share well).

Woman I work with voted for Cyprian Brady because "its a strange name"

I'm not kidding either
25/05/2007, 12:51 PM
OneRedArmy

Quote:

Originally Posted by pete

(Bertie does not share well).

Thats a bit selfish of him given all his mates share a lot with him....
25/05/2007, 1:23 PM
Poor Student

John Curran (FF) in Dublin Mid-West takes the first seat. Harney sits second but takes a big hit of nearly 6% in first preference votes.
25/05/2007, 1:26 PM
Jerry The Saint

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poor Student

No, really, it's what they reckon from research.

Research, eh? Well if they say so, I'm convinced. :)
25/05/2007, 1:33 PM
Poor Student

Mary Lou McDondal not looking likely. Se�n Crowe struggling too. SF definitely not living up to their billing.
25/05/2007, 1:36 PM
Mr A

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poor Student

Mary Lou McDondal not looking likely. Se�n Crowe struggling too. SF definitely not living up to their billing.

Which is fantastic :)

McLochlainn may take a seat in Donegal Northeast, but it's hard to call. FF's attempt to keep their 3 seats may have backfired as they could end up losing two of them.
25/05/2007, 1:36 PM
Calcio Jack

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

If you aren't on the register it doesn't matter what you bring?

Seems after the register being 400,000 over with duplicates and dead people last time around the "clean up" has disenfranchised thousands of legitimate voters this time around.

And the Minister resonsible Dick Roche looks like he's going to top the poll in wicklow.... could only happen in Ireland :confused:

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