Printable View
wrongQuote:
Originally Posted by tricky_colour
"Laying the bet is effecively being the bookmaker in the traditional sense" no
its not...and this is a common misconception
laying is = this is NOT going to happen
bookmaker = by definition a person running a book on ALL eventualities - far different to the lay on betfair. when u lay on betfair u are betting against ONE eventuality - being a bookie is TOTALLY diff
Not really. While a bookie lays all eventualities, his choice of prices mean he is effectively backing or laying one selection. When he deliberately goes best price on any one selection, he is clearly inviting the punter to bet with him, and heavily laying a particular selection. When favourites win, bookmakers lose. Case in point West Ham's late winner Sunday; cost a lot of firms a pretty penny as shag-all punters wanted to back West Ham, everyone wanted Spurs.Quote:
Originally Posted by wws
im not getting bogged down in this - but if you lay 0-0 in a match you are not being a "bookie" - you're not running a book on the market - you're just betting it wont be 0-0, no more no less
The point is traditionally you could not back a horse to lose (lay it effectively) now you can easilly by laying it on betting exchanges. This vastly increases the oppertunity for people to make money by 'nobbling' the horse in some way. The bookie lays the bet you make and by laying a bet you are in a sense being the bookie, albeit only for the horse(s) you lay. Indeed you could lay ever horse in the race if you wanted to and indeed every sporting event if you wanted too, the only difference being that you have a to pay a commission of 5%-25 which I would imagine compares very favourably with a 'real' bookies overheads. Indeed it seems to me it would be considerable cheaper than running the local Ladbrokes with the cost of the building, rates, staff, cleaners, televisions, electricity, heating, pens betting slips.....etc..
So actually it seems you could actually become the bookie and one just as real as Ladbrokes or Paddy Power!! Infact realising that for myself I am seriously contemplating setting myself up in business as a bookie!! Indeed at Redbet the comission is fixed at 3% which is pretty low considering I pay 5% commision at online poker and have been able to make a profit at it (albeit not so much recently!!). So yes you can become the bookie if you want to
and when you consider some of the 'overrounds' of 130% on some horse races it seems quite a tempting proposition!!
Anyone fancy placing a bet with Tricky's Online Bookmakers?!! :D :D :D
That's nonsense. The bookies losing customers pay for the winning customers. From reading what JW, Dodge and WWS post I would be very surprised if they weren't beating the bookies (or the exchange customers) on their league of ireland betting.Quote:
Originally Posted by tricky_colour
The problem eventually becomes one of getting your bets on when you do manage to get ahead. The exchange markets seldom have sufficient liquidity and the bookies will knock back your stake to 1/4 or 1/10 of what you want on.
Most bookmakers (particularly Irish independents, UK & European online firms) do not have the resources to have somebody paying attention solely to the eircom league, so they miss out on important team news and other factors in getting their odds right. The odds quoted on Shelbourne for the Setanta Cup and their Group before they withdrew is obvious testimony to this.
Bet only on what you know about, be disciplined, keep a record of your bets and ALWAYS take the best price. Then you will go along way to beating the bookie's profit margin.
I do alright. I'm in profit on football, tennis, american football and rugby.Quote:
Originally Posted by el punter
Thats pretty much it in a nutshell. I do a lot of in play stuff too, where I play the odds but I've made mistakes learning. The key is don't gamble more than you can afford to lose and never ever chase your lossesQuote:
Bet only on what you know about, be disciplined, keep a record of your bets and ALWAYS take the best price. Then you will go along way to beating the bookie's profit margin.
You have a list of possible outcomes; one will mean profit for you, the rest will mean a loss for you. That is a book.Quote:
Originally Posted by wws
Some people seem to think the book makers lose when favourites win, however that is nonsense, if they are setting their prices correctly they should make the same profit whoever wins.
All you have to do is take 20% out of the total money bet (for your profit) and then divide what is left by the total money bet on any particular horse to get the odds for that horse. That way you make 20% whoever wins.
It doens't always work that way though. Bookies can price it up however they want if punters only back one outcome, they're on a loser (I think the William Hills guy said that they lost 400k+ when Spurs won last week)
That's simplistic theory. In reality the money is seldom distributed in proportion across the book unless its an exceptionally strong market.Quote:
Originally Posted by tricky_colour
The bookie sets a line but the punters ultimately shape the book through weight of money. I can assure you that if the favourites win every race this Tuesday at Cheltenham there will be some bookies who will be wiped out and won't be back on Wednesday. If the absolute outsider wins every race then every bookie will be absolutely quids in.
Bookies don't 'price it up' the prices are set by the money wagered.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
If punters only backed one outcome they would just close the book. They are not gamblers. The William Hills guy is just trying to con people into thinking they can beat the bookmakers. I think you will find in reality their profit was about 10% of all the money wagered on the event (or whatever their margin is on events of this type).
Note the William Hills guy omitted to mention the quarter of a billion pounds profit they made last year. I wonder why that was? Perhaps he forgot, just like he forgets every time when he tells you what a hard time the bookmakers are having!!!
Bookies like it when favourites win beause it encourages people to bet more and bigger thus the 'cake from which they take their slice' is bigger. They could not care less who wins, their profit is the same whatever the outcome.Quote:
Originally Posted by el punter
The sooner you set up as a bookie the betterQuote:
Originally Posted by tricky_colour
Lol :)
Indeed, I would certaintly do better than I ever did as a punter.Quote:
Originally Posted by el punter
Bookmakers like favourites winning because it reduces their risk, it is easier for them to set their odds because there is a steadier flow of money on them
and also a heavier weight of money so a single large bet won't increase their exposure. However what really worries them is a large bet on a rank outsider
which could cripple them if it came in. However in any case they can have policies to ensure they are not exposed to any bet.
Bookmakers are not gamblers they are simply grafters the only risk they take is whether they get enough customers to pay their over heads, they are no more in the gambling business than Tesco's or Marks and Spencers.
They simply don't care whether the favourite wins or not, it's just a myth spread by the likes of C4's John McCririck.
Go to any racecourse and observer if any of the course bookmakers display any interest in the outcome of a race, chances are none of them will, it is immaterial to them, favourite or outsider it makes no difference. That is the whole point of making a book, it ensures your profit is the same whatever the outcome.
The only problem the big bookmaker have is being squeezed by the likes of Betfair and the online exchanges. I have just compared the 'overround' between the two on the Champion Hurdle and Hill's 120% don't look too good against the wafer thin 101% on Betfair (there would be some commision to pay on top of that I believe). I might have a flutter at those prices those are margins I have a chance of beating. They are similar to the 5% margin in online poker, which I have been able to beat, (albeit no so much lately but I seem to having a return to 'form' at the moment :) )
The problem though with horseracing and other forms of gambling is that they are open to cheating and there seemed to be too much of that going on before I switched to poker, the only form of gambling at which I know I have made a profit (have blown quite a bit of it recently though :( ) but I am still ahead after 2 years, and when you add in the money I would have lost on other forms of gambling if I were not playing poker then I am quids in.
I might have a crack at some of the Cheltenham races on the exchanges though just to see how I do, overrounds of 101% look very tempting!!
I might do an accumulator on all the favourites and see if it bankrupts William Hill if it comes in ;)
I was on "finger on the pulse" in the 4.00, the jockey fell off just after the race started, was not even going over a fence. Now I know why I stopped backing horses!! That sort of thing seemed to happen to me on a regular basic, especially when I see a horse at a 'good' price. Seems like some people knew that horse was not going to get round!! So my 10p E/W lasted all of 10 seconds :rolleyes:
Robbed :mad:
I'm no bookie - but I work in one + my uncles are bookies - and believe me, they do not like it when favourites win!
Had Aran Concerto won today, for example, the shop I work in would have been withdrawing a lot of money instead of lodging some. And Denman - a heavily backed fav - was easily our biggest loss.
Well you should try setting the price so it reflects the amount of money wagered on him, it would be daft not to. Then the only drawback to the favourite winning would be that you have do more work paying out a larger number of winners, other than that it would be immaterial who won the race. There is no reason for a bookmaker to ever lose money.
The PaddyPower Gift Card is available in 50 Spar newsagents shops around Dublin and are in denominations of €25, €50 and €100.
Anyone know any Spars which sell there? Would they not be available in PP shops? I haven't got any credit/debit cards so this will be the easiest way for me to bet online.
Would they not just be for betting in shops?
Get yourself a laser BTW, handy things to have
These are the cards that I'm on aboutQuote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
here
Your Paddy Power Gift Card cannot be redeemed at Paddy Power shop outlets, they must be activated at point of sale. You can alternatively buy "Gift Vouchers" which can be used only in our Paddy Power Shops. e.g: Gift Cards are for use over the internet and telephone and Gift
Should be getting a laser soon just want something for the mean time.