Preliminary Draw of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil

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29/07/2011, 10:02 AM
Closed Account 2

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crosby87

Just asking why would anyone need a excel sheet to do this? Can't you just eye up the pots and get a general idea for the possibilities in like 2 seconds?

The thing is a human is unlikely to reliably pick a random selection when they have an interest in the outcome, there will always be an underlying bias, even when someone (attempts to) randomly pick outcomes. Psychologically speaking, any fan is likely to be wanting either a glamour draw (e.g. Spain, France, etc) or an "easy" draw (e.g. Greece, Slovenia, etc) or a pessimistic draw (Holland, Russia etc) or some other set of criteria depending on their outlook. There are also other constraints, for instance there is a chance of being in a 5 team group (with the 6th seed being blank), yet due to human bias noone has really considered this, a blank team is similar to a "no answer" or "n/a" in a survey and with human input this will be under-selected.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Hehe, indeed. Isn't it all terribly pointless as the draw is done at random anyway? A bit like a BBC headline about the draw yesterday, I kid you not: "England could face France in 2014 World Cup qualifying".

Yes, England could face France, as well as a possible selection of 43 other teams.

The actual probability is more subtle than say 5 in 44 (France + the other "43 other teams"). As the teams are set into six pots, once a team is drawn from one of those pots the remaining 8 teams cannot go into that group. For instance England could draw France, Bosnia, Poland, Cyprus, San Marino. But once France had been drawn, they could then no longer draw Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia or Slovakia.

Also as mentioned above, using 5 in 44 (5 being seeding pots 2-6; 44 being the other 43 + France) is slightly wrong anyway, since England can draw a blank team in pot 6 (i.e. be in a 5 team group instead of a full 6 team group), so mathematically "Blank" needs to be a team, so it needs the baseline needs to be 45 not 44.
29/07/2011, 10:12 AM
pineapple stu

Quote:

Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

A bit like a BBC headline about the draw yesterday, I kid you not: "England could face France in 2014 World Cup qualifying".

Yes, England could face France, as well as a possible selection of 43 other teams.

In fairness, how often has that been the case? England and France would usually be first seeds. The headline - which was really about the seeding confirmation - was pointing out that France have dropped to second seeds.
29/07/2011, 10:26 AM
jbyrne

Quote:

Originally Posted by gastric

This article while possibly a bit sensational in content says a lot about where Irish soccer is at. I have put in here as I wasn't sure where else to put it.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...y-2834709.html

i dont have a problem with a 3 man team going to the draw. i am sure good contacts and relationships with other associations are formed at these things. I am also sure that there are other events staged around the draw that we should be well represented at.

as for the shower issue and delaneys salary.... i 100% agree with the article.
29/07/2011, 11:22 AM
Crosby87

Is it really that big of a surprise that France dropped to anyone who even remotely follows Football though Pineapple? Half the team didn't even want to play in the World Cup.
29/07/2011, 11:44 AM
pineapple stu

It's just a way to grab attention to the article is all. Think it's being over-criticised.
29/07/2011, 11:52 AM
Junior

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crosby87

Is it really that big of a surprise that France dropped to anyone who even remotely follows Football though Pineapple? Half the team didn't even want to play in the World Cup.

I think most football observers (who dont religously follow the seedings thread :D) may be surprised that Norway are in Pot1 and Montenegro in Pot2, I was. And I wouldnt have been surprised if France had remained in Pot1 to be honest.

Reading the seedings thread over the years - quite often a trend in recent results doesnt appear to reflect itself in the seedings because of the various weightings applied to historical results.
29/07/2011, 1:07 PM
CraftyToePoke

I reckon other countries are out there, looking at the pots and hoping they can avoid us as their third seed opponent, us and France as second seeds would be one to be avoided by most, even top pot dwellers. Including ourselves avoiding France hopefully. I have a feeling we are going to get a real beast of a draw, our present group could have been much tougher so we are due a downturn and I have a feeling England and ourselves will be paired together, its been a while. Its time.
29/07/2011, 1:12 PM
hoops1

How did Norway manage to get into pot 1?
29/07/2011, 1:14 PM
CraftyToePoke

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoops1

How did Norway manage to get into pot 1?

All done with mirrors apparently.
29/07/2011, 1:20 PM
Torn-Ado

Norway
Montenegro
Ireland
Northern Ireland/Georgia
Faroe islands
San Marino
29/07/2011, 1:52 PM
BonnieShels

I have a feeling that Spain or the Netherlands are certs.

I do not want France or England.
29/07/2011, 3:03 PM
Yard of Pace

Quote:

Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke

I have a feeling England and ourselves will be paired together, its been a while. Its time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BonnieShels

I have a feeling that Spain or the Netherlands are certs.

.

Any idea of tomorrow evening's lotto numbers, lads?
29/07/2011, 3:41 PM
Cuyahoga

Te draw is live on rte2 tomorrow night the 30th at 8.15.
29/07/2011, 4:00 PM
BonnieShels

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yard of Pace

Any idea of tomorrow evening's lotto numbers, lads?

Yes. I reckon exactly 7 numbers will be drawn from the range of 1-45 inclusive.
29/07/2011, 4:43 PM
BonnieShels

SSN are going with the whole England v France thing now.
29/07/2011, 4:55 PM
DannyInvincible

http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2011/...dcup_fifa.html

Quote:

FIFA today announced that the 2014 World Cup finals will start on 12 June and finish on 13 July.

At a news conference in Rio, FIFA president Sepp Blatter also announced that a decision whether to introduce goalline technology would be taken at next March's meeting in London of the International FA Board, the game's lawmakers.

If approved, he said, it could be implemented at the World Cup finals two years later.

FIFA also announced that the World Cup play-off system, heavily criticised after Thierry Henry's infamous handball for France against the Republic of Ireland, would be maintained.

Will be interesting to see if there are any developments on the goal-line technology front, but has the play-off system itself come in for heavy criticism? I didn't think so. I think the play-off system is fair enough. The problem when we were drawn against France was that a decision was taken after the groups were completed to seed the play-off draw after the groups had already been seeded originally. Essentially, it was unnecessarily making things twice as hard for teams like us as we'd fairly finished second after initial seeding just like all the other teams who'd finished second. The seeding was my only issue with those play-offs (and the introduction of basketball rules for a split second during extra-time in our away leg, obviously).
29/07/2011, 5:41 PM
Cymro

Quote:

Originally Posted by Torn-Ado

Norway
Montenegro
Ireland
Northern Ireland/Georgia
Faroe islands
San Marino

Christ, that's a weak group. No offence to Irishmen (Northern/Republic) or Montenegrin, or Brian Kerr, obviously, if any of you are reading.
29/07/2011, 5:46 PM
BonnieShels

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cymro

Christ, that's a weak group. No offence to Irishmen (Northern/Republic) or Montenegrin, or Brian Kerr, obviously, if any of you are reading.

I reckon we could top that. I think we're due a super easy group.

I think I'd take Greece over Norway.

So

Greece
Slovakia
Ireland
Austria
Latvia
Andorra/San Marino

Happy with that.

Also Cymro... Irishmen will do. There's no such thing as Republic of or Northern Irishmen.

(queue GR)
29/07/2011, 7:24 PM
boovidge

Quote:

Originally Posted by BonnieShels

I reckon we could top that. I think we're due a super easy group.

I think I'd take Greece over Norway.

So

Greece
Slovakia
Ireland
Austria
Latvia
Andorra/San Marino

Happy with that.

Also Cymro... Irishmen will do. There's no such thing as Republic of or Northern Irishmen.

(queue GR)

Over at OWC headquarters an alarm sounds.
29/07/2011, 7:34 PM
Kingdom

Ugh....

Quote:

Originally Posted by cfdhed's magic draw

England
Slovakia
Rep Ireland
Poland
Estonia
Wales

I take it back, next Irish group was....

Quote:

Italy
Serbia
Rep Ireland
Romania
Latvia

I'd cry, I really would if that group came up. Wouldn't be tears associated with winning the lotto or losing one's virginity say....well, unless it was lost in a Romanian prison.

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