Albania 6 Cyprus 1

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Originally Posted by SuperDave

p.s. will rte be showing that game?

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Possibly, they showed the Russia - Switzerland game a few days after we played the Russians at home.

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Originally Posted by SuperDave

a draw is not an absolute disaster. assuming bulgaria get nine points (beat georgia and montenegro at home and cyprus away, and lose to italy) we need five points to finish above them.... draw with cyprus, draw with italy and beat montenegro....

if however we beat cyprus, we would ideally like bulgaria to get a draw in italy but not to win.... because if bulgaria beat italy, but then we lost to italy at home, or even drew with them, we could finish third, unfathomable as it seems, were each of those two teams to win the remainder of their games.... a bulgaria win in italy is actually probably the worst result for us, strange as that sounds.

now: italy 6 / 14, ireland 7 / 13, bulgaria 6 / 8, so if bulgaria won all their games they would have 20 points (and most likely a superior goal difference), if the italians lost to bulgaria, drew against us and won the other two, they would have 21, and even if we beat cyprus and montenegro and drew with italy we would have 20.... although strangely if you switch the italian results to a loss to us and a draw with bulgaria, we win the group on 22, to the italian 21 and the bulgarian 18.

in short, and its really not where i started this post, our final position in this group is going to be decided as much by the outcome of that one game as by any of our own: if italy win, we are looking quite good for second but miles from first, if italy draw, first is a distinct possibility with second pretty secure, but if bulgaria win, first would depend on us beating the italians and third would be distinctly likely if we didn't.

all in all, there is a long way to go and the cyprus game is almost not as important as one we won't even play, four days later.

p.s. will rte be showing that game?

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I think we need to beat Cyprus irrespective of what happens in the Italy V Bulgaria game. One to put us is a very strong position for at least second and second of all to ensure that if we do finish finish that we do have sufficient points to make the playoffs.

You would imagine RTE would show the game considering its importance to us but I think its more likely to be on setanta.

Welcome Vllaznia :D

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Originally Posted by DeLorean

Very good post irishfan. Reminds me of Gaelic Football where Kerry hammer Mayo, Mayo do really well against Tyrone and Kerry struggle big time against Tyrone. Different strengths and weaknesses exposed. Don't really agree with the last bit though as Whelan was part of a midfield that struggled in a big way at Croke Park against Cyprus, might be different away though.

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I was reading that and I started to wonder about whelan in croke park :D Thinking about it now, both have habit of going missing in games :D

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Originally Posted by SuperDave

a draw is not an absolute disaster. assuming bulgaria get nine points (beat georgia and montenegro at home and cyprus away, and lose to italy) we need five points to finish above them.... draw with cyprus, draw with italy and beat montenegro....

if however we beat cyprus, we would ideally like bulgaria to get a draw in italy but not to win.... because if bulgaria beat italy, but then we lost to italy at home, or even drew with them, we could finish third, unfathomable as it seems, were each of those two teams to win the remainder of their games.... a bulgaria win in italy is actually probably the worst result for us, strange as that sounds.

now: italy 6 / 14, ireland 7 / 13, bulgaria 6 / 8, so if bulgaria won all their games they would have 20 points (and most likely a superior goal difference), if the italians lost to bulgaria, drew against us and won the other two, they would have 21, and even if we beat cyprus and montenegro and drew with italy we would have 20.... although strangely if you switch the italian results to a loss to us and a draw with bulgaria, we win the group on 22, to the italian 21 and the bulgarian 18.

in short, and its really not where i started this post, our final position in this group is going to be decided as much by the outcome of that one game as by any of our own: if italy win, we are looking quite good for second but miles from first, if italy draw, first is a distinct possibility with second pretty secure, but if bulgaria win, first would depend on us beating the italians and third would be distinctly likely if we didn't.

all in all, there is a long way to go and the cyprus game is almost not as important as one we won't even play, four days later.

p.s. will rte be showing that game?

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I reckon it will be easier to beat Cyprus than draw with Italy at home in your scenario.

Furthermore if we get your results and even if we finish ahead of Bulgaria we'll be in danger of missing out as the worst runner up. 2 wins gives us 13 points in the runners up table which barring some very unlikely results is a playoff spot.

However 12 points could see us losing out.

BTW Montenegro at home is no gimme either. They are a decent side and will cause us problems.

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Originally Posted by gspain

I reckon it will be easier to beat Cyprus than draw with Italy at home in your scenario.

Furthermore if we get your results and even if we finish ahead of Bulgaria we'll be in danger of missing out as the worst runner up. 2 wins gives us 13 points in the runners up table which barring some very unlikely results is a playoff spot.

However 12 points could see us losing out.

BTW Montenegro at home is no gimme either. They are a decent side and will cause us problems.

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nah, scotland's group should provide the worst runner up.... but i agree with about montenegro

also, drawing with italy may well be possible, if they come here only needing a draw to qualify.

anyway, i hate this stage of qualifying campaigns as i can't help but speculate and ponder all the what ifs.... i just want the games to happen already.

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Originally Posted by SuperDave

anyway, i hate this stage of qualifying campaigns as i can't help but speculate and ponder all the what ifs.... i just want the games to happen already.

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I'd be really surprised if we ended up with anything other than a playoff spot. I think there's a better chance of us topping the group than Bulgaria catching us.

One result could change all that i.e. we draw with cyprus,they win their two games and we are even....can no one really see that one unexpected result or a draw instead of where ppl are placing a win means the bulgars are right back in it...

I think we'll win in Cyprus. I could be wrong obviously but I'm very confident. I'm very aware of the table as well. The way I look at it we're 2 points ahead of Bulgaria because I'm giving them 3 pts for Georgia at home. Therefore we have the same amount of games left with the same fixtures except we have Italy at home and they have Italy away. There is nothing to suggest that the Bulgarians will come away from those games with more points than us.

If we end up in a playoff will it be a one off game at a neutral venue or 2 games played home and away?

probably two games played home and away going on past qualifications...

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Originally Posted by SuperDave

nah, scotland's group should provide the worst runner up.... but i agree with about montenegro

also, drawing with italy may well be possible, if they come here only needing a draw to qualify.

anyway, i hate this stage of qualifying campaigns as i can't help but speculate and ponder all the what ifs.... i just want the games to happen already.

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I agree but Norway need to beat Iceland (A) and Macedonia (H) to reach 12 points. Scotland can make 13 with a bad GD if they beat Holland and Macedonia.

If we get a win and 2 draws then even if Bulgaria lose in Turin we would still likely lose out to Norway on Goal Difference.

We need to win in Cyprus anything else would be a major disappointment.

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Originally Posted by DeLorean

Very good post irishfan. Reminds me of Gaelic Football where Kerry hammer Mayo, Mayo do really well against Tyrone and Kerry struggle big time against Tyrone. Different strengths and weaknesses exposed. Don't really agree with the last bit though as Whelan was part of a midfield that struggled in a big way at Croke Park against Cyprus, might be different away though.

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boxing even more so. Styles make fights!

If we do make the qualifiers will they seed teams or are they waiting to see how many 'big' nations finish 2nd before making a decision? I had a look on the FIFA website a few months ago and it was vague.

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Originally Posted by gspain

BTW Montenegro at home is no gimme either. They are a decent side and will cause us problems.

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This lad will be delighted if he's up against the likes of Andrews and Whelan in midfield.

http://www.skysports.com/football/transfers/scout/

We'll see if he is as delighted after the game as Petrov and Berbatov were in Sofia.

Jovetic played in Podgorica and was one of their better players. The most we deserved that night was a draw.

I was away so didn't see this result.

I still think we'll eek out a win.

I thought wewere the better team for most of the first half against Australia, especially considering that Doyle was a passenger. Dunne, St. Ledger and Given hadn't really dusted off the cobwebs at all. I think a match sharp central defence will make a big difference.

That said, the last time we got a pre season spanking at home we went over to Cyprus and got a proper competitive spanking.

Generally speaking I'm pretty happy with how our squad members have started the regular season in England & Scotland.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I was away so didn't see this result.

I still think we'll eek out a win.

I thought wewere the better team for most of the first half against Australia, especially considering that Doyle was a passenger. Dunne, St. Ledger and Given hadn't really dusted off the cobwebs at all. I think a match sharp central defence will make a big difference.

That said, the last time we got a pre season spanking at home we went over to Cyprus and got a proper competitive spanking.

Generally speaking I'm pretty happy with how our squad members have started the regular season in England & Scotland.

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yes, but in that game we had a superb central midfield not at all in any way overrun by a larger, more muscular cypriot side ;)