Debate - Future of Youth Development in Irish Football

I don't have much spare time at the moment, though I had hoped to try to find the time to respond to Stu's list of questions, because there was quite a bit I wanted to say. However, ES has answered the points to a level of depth and knowledge that I couldn't hope to compete with anyway, and I pretty much agree with all he says, so probably just best to leave it at that.

Just to be clear, I'm not by any means saying that every Irish player should leave at the first available opportunity. However I do firmly believe that, for the players with elite potential, it is likely to be detrimental for them to stay on in Ireland too long beyond 16 unfortunately. I get the point about the difficulty of uprooting a 16 or 17 year old, but it's a necessary evil for the best players unfortunately, it just is what it is, always has been. It doesn't just happen in football and it doesn't just happen in Ireland. And calling it legalised child trafficking or whatever the phrase was is massively OTT hyperbole.

"From a developmental perspective, it’s probably better for a player to join an English team at 16 than 18. You’re right that they’re almost certainly gonna play reserves at 18. The issue is, it feels like championship clubs rarely take a look at a player playing LOI at 21. So your ceiling is a move to League 1 or SPL. And everything needs to go right there - and then you can get a move to the championship. And from there, the premier league - but that’s probably a 5 season plan - and at that point clubs are already viewing you as old."

This is probably the key point for me. Of the relatively few that stay in Ireland and do go on to succeed - it feels like they're almost always late developers, playing catch up and reaching their potential relatively late in what is already a short career. I do wonder if someone like Seamus Coleman had found his way to England at 16 or 17, if he would have ended up at a top end club, winning major trophies and playing Champions League year on year. Because he was good enough for that. But it's so competitive in the top leagues now, you really need to hit the ground running as a young player if you're going to achieve at that level of the game.

Well Poland banged in five again (and against the hosts), so I think we do need to acknowledge that they're probably quite a good team.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

Just to be clear, I'm not by any means saying that every Irish player should leave at the first available opportunity.

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Well this is good, because it's certainly the meaning I took from your many comments prior to now. otoh seems to agree when he says "I think the reaction to Eirambler's posts was down to the fact that it seemed to want us to ship everyone abroad at the first opportunity."

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Originally Posted by elatedscum

In fairness, the players who are good enough to be wanted by top academies don’t have a 1% of making it, it’s a lot higher, somewhere in the 50-70% range. If you look at the lads who have signed since abroad since Brexit, they’re not sure things, virtually no one is at that age, but they’re the high outcome players. For example, if you look at that team that lost to Germany six years ago, it probably contains about 13 out of 18 professionals.

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50-70% sounds quite high - is there even room in the professional setup for 50%-70% of 16-year-olds to make it each year? (I assume by "top academies", you mean one of the 28 Category One academies in England). I'd be sceptical about that one tbh. (Here's a report from the BBC in 2014 which says that of those entering academies at 16, 50% will have dropped out of the game within two years, and more than 75% will be gone by the age of 21. It doesn't say what level of academy it's looking at, though all the players interviewed were at reasonably top teams)

You've got to remember though that, even before the Brexit issues came up, it was a lot harder to get into an academy of a Premier League or Championship club as an Irish player than as an English player. Simply based on geography and logistics really. So, while those stats will have been correct across the academies as a whole, the success rate for Irish players has always been considerably higher than that. Probably not 70%, but certainly many multiples of the 1% being suggested.

I'm not sure how relevant Brexit is for academies - most countries don't send their players abroad at 18 anyway so academy teams tend to be fairly local afaik.

The 2018 Euro U17 squad - which had two LoI players - already has 35% of the players not in a professional league. Elated has shown similar figures for 2017. It's already higher for the 2019 Euros squad (who qualified as hosts, not on merit, so maybe unfair to expect them to be on the same level); that had four Irish-based players

I'm assuming here all the LoI players are pro, but really you should differentiate between players who may go back abroad (McEneff at Derry) and those who almost certainly won't, who may be part-time and indeed may drop down further in the next couple of years (Coffey and Corcoran at Cork, Ledwidge at Shels).

And that's of our finals squad, which is supposed to be the best prospects. Success may be higher than 1% but it can't be 50%.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

We need to put an end to this "Brexit is the best thing to happen" nonsense

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It is though - or certainly it has the potential to be.

The national team's decline can be directly linked to the abolition of the three foreigners rule and the rapid injection of money into the Premier League. Since then, the number of Irish players in the Premier League has been on a steady decline - the English teams simply don't need us anywhere near as much as before. It must be a decade now since we had a regular player in the Champions League. The last couple of weeks there hasn't even been a single starter in the Premier League. We're doing ok for Championship players, but that's a another step down from the previous two levels.

We can't keep embracing the system that's turned its back on us. We can only fall further behind that way. So anything which (a) forces attention on developing our academies here and (b) leads to more money to fund that (and 18-year-olds will go for better transfer deals than 16-year-olds, by and large) has to be a positive. Not ideal maybe, but it's time for us as a football country to grow up and take control of our own players' development. Like every other country.

And I think given your comments after the defeat against Poland (that staying with the LoI was "for the birds") probably needs some reassessment after the win over Wales and Poland's five-goal haul against Hungary, which can now be added to similar hauls against Uzbekistan, England, Andorra (6), Belgium, Sweden and Slovakia.

Best thing to happen might be overstating it, but it's certainly the biggest opportunity for improvement in the underage system here that I can think of

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

And I think given your comments after the defeat against Poland (that staying with the LoI was "for the birds") probably needs some reassessment after the win over Wales and Poland's five-goal haul against Hungary, which can now be added to similar hauls against Uzbekistan, England, Andorra (6), Belgium, Sweden and Slovakia.

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I have no idea how you've come to the conclusion that I should be revisiting my comment that players voluntarily choosing to stay in Ireland until they are 21 is for the birds because we beat Wales in an Under 17 game, but anyway...I'd say now if you asked the 20 lads out in Hungary if they'd rather be playing in the League of Ireland or for a Premier League or Championship team when they're 21 you'd get a fairly uniform answer from the lot of them, and it wouldn't be to say that they go to bed at night dreaming of another four years at St Pat's or whoever.

The irony though is that, if a proper domestic youth development setup was ever to be formed in Ireland, it's your English clubs, who have apparently turned their backs on us, that are probably your best bet to make it happen.

We've already seen one or two sniffing around and if there's a genuine belief that there are more Evan Fergusons to be found here, they're the ones with the capital to effectively take over an Irish club and put the structures in place. Because, if you're waiting for the FAI or the League of Ireland to fund the necessary coaches and facilities themselves, you'll be waiting a long time sadly.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

I have no idea how you've come to the conclusion that I should be revisiting my comment that players voluntarily choosing to stay in Ireland until they are 21 is for the birds because we beat Wales in an Under 17 game,

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Well you were rather vocal in what seemed to be schadenfreude after the Poland game, so it seemed only reasonable to look at more than one game.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

I'd say now if you asked the 20 lads out in Hungary if they'd rather be playing in the League of Ireland or for a Premier League or Championship team when they're 21 you'd get a fairly uniform answer from the lot of them

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Not sure what the relevance of that is. What they want isn't necessarily what's best for them. And it's not quite what I'm suggesting either. Is it better, between the ages of 18-21, to play senior professional football (including Europe) or play in an academy abroad? And it'll differ for different players of course

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

The irony though is that, if a proper domestic youth development setup was ever to be formed in Ireland, it's your English clubs, who have apparently turned their backs on us, that are probably your best bet to make it happen.

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Where's the irony? You hardly disagree young Irish players are making less of an impact than ever before? But the LoI generated around €1m in transfer fees in the past year - a tiny fraction of the around £1bn English teams spend nett per year, money which filters down to and funds lots of European leagues. Except ours, because we insist on sending school kids abroad at 16 for pennies. We need the players to justify that value of course, and to have another €1m+ earned this year. But it's the way pretty much every minor European league operates.

Our way is long broken. The only irony here is that we're now being forced to do what's best for us

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Well you were rather vocal in what seemed to be schadenfreude after the Poland game, so it seemed only reasonable to look at more than one game.

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What difference does that game make though - that comment was in relation to a (frankly ridiculous) suggestion that players should be held back in Ireland until they are 21, neither a win nor a loss at Under 17 level has any relevance to my opinion on that to be quite honest.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Not sure what the relevance of that is. What they want isn't necessarily what's best for them. And it's not quite what I'm suggesting either. Is it better, between the ages of 18-21, to play senior professional football (including Europe) or play in an academy abroad? And it'll differ for different players of course.

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The general answer is that it is better to do both - gain the benefit of better coaching and facilities AND get first team football experience as well. Most Irish players that go abroad either get first team football with their new club by 21, or go out on loan. So most get the combination of both facilities/coaching and senior football experience. No question the ones that stay will get the first team football, but they won't get the coaching - the stats show that in black and white. So they can never get the preferable combination of both by staying back in Ireland.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Where's the irony? You hardly disagree young Irish players are making less of an impact than ever before? But the LoI generated around €1m in transfer fees in the past year - a tiny fraction of the around £1bn English teams spend nett per year, money which filters down to and funds lots of European leagues. Except ours, because we insist on sending school kids abroad at 16 for pennies. We need the players to justify that value of course, and to have another €1m+ earned this year. But it's the way pretty much every minor European league operates.

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English clubs were as active in terms of scouting Irish players right up to the Brexit cut off as they ever were, they never turned their back. Unfortunately, as most of us know, pretty much nobody of international standard came out of Ireland for about five years across the groups born between 1993 and 1997. That's just the way of it for a small country like us, every few decades you'll have a horrible dry patch like we did. From the 98/99 groups onwards we had a few come through again and we've seen that, for those that are good enough, there's still plenty of opportunity in the Premier League, more than a dozen Irish players born 1998 or later have already played in the EPL - and one of them is the highest scoring teenager in that league this season.

The irony I'm talking about is that the very league you seem to frame as being a problem for us is the one that's most likely to provide the finances if we are to ever put some kind of half decent system in place at home. But, unless and until that domestic setup is actually in place, people need to stop telling themselves that players are somehow benefitting from reduced access to top level coaching and facilities - when it's fairly obvious that they won't be - and that the solution is to somehow try to restrict their access further in the hope that that approach will somehow cause coaches, facilities and contact hours at domestic teams to somehow magically improve.

development posts moved

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

What difference does that game make though - that comment was in relation to a (frankly ridiculous) suggestion that players should be held back in Ireland until they are 21, neither a win nor a loss at Under 17 level has any relevance to my opinion on that to be quite honest.

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But if neither one win now a loss has any relevance to your opinion, why were you so quick to pile on after the Poland defeat? That was one game, after all.

And for the record, I'm not suggesting that all players stay in Ireland until they're 21. I'm suggesting that what is "frankly ridiculous" is your suggestion that everyone should skip the country to the first academy that comes calling on their 18th birthday. We should aim to have players staying here till they're 21 or so - like in most other countries across the continent - but we're certainly not ready for that.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

So most get the combination of both facilities/coaching and senior football experience. No question the ones that stay will get the first team football, but they won't get the coaching - the stats show that in black and white.

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What stats show that? The only stats you've shown relate to academy coaches in various countries, and yeah, we trail badly there. But I keep trying to compare academy in England v senior first-team here, which is different.

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

English clubs were as active in terms of scouting Irish players right up to the Brexit cut off as they ever were, they never turned their back.

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Ah they did though. You talk of the age group born between 1993 and 1997 - but this goes back way before then. The three foreigners rule went in 1996. At that stage, you had some 16-year-olds already in England, but from then on, numbers have been declining - and you can chart that decline from around 2002. There's been a steady decline in Irish players in the Premier League since then (and the CL, by extension), culminating in this season where the total minutes played are less than 20% of what they were at the peak. (And the two players with the highest totals are likely to be relegated, though Ferguson/Cullen may offset that). So this isn't a 1993-1997 lull; this is a constant decline since the 1980 group or so. That's why the national team has been in decline since the mid 00s.

So the problem is that we depended on England to develop our young players for decades - but they don't need us as much any more. But yeah, if - with our players now having to stay here till 18, and maybe staying a bit longer to get first-team experience - we start generating a million in transfer fees a year from the English leagues, like we did this year, that's a huge benefit. It's how lots of other leagues fund themselves.

Just to add to a link to a 2016 article on When Saturday Comes' website, which cites a report from the Football Observatory on players moving abroad -

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all things being equal, players having left their country under the age of 18 have, on average, less rewarding careers than footballers who left later with more experience under their belt.

This result indicates that the premature international migration of inexperienced players poses serious risks for both the footballers concerned and the teams recruiting them. Unfortunately, in spite of all sporting logic, in an overly speculative context where numerous actors make their living out of player transfers, the international flow of minors increases with each year.

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Possibly moving from Ireland to England is lower down than, say, moving from Africa to England - though the report itself has such local migration as by far the most likely (eg Belgium to Holland, Holland to England, etc). So it's still a pretty damning statement. And we're a complete outlier when it comes to sending underage players abroad; there was a UEFA report a couple of years ago that showed that.

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

development posts moved

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Cheers tets - I actually just sent a comment saying it was a good idea, but you moved them in between, so ignore me! :)

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Cheers tets - I actually just sent a comment saying it was a good idea, but you moved them in between, so ignore me! :)

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no problem, let me know if there's any other posts that should be moved, or moved back.

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

no problem, let me know if there's any other posts that should be moved, or moved back.

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Maybe the graph that shows number of academy coaches. And again, it shows why Croatia are so successful, with over 10 academy coaches per top-flight club. And, as I did with the 2018 squad, I had a look at the wikipedia pages of their squad from 2022 and found that 19 of their 26 started their senior careers in the Croatian league ( a couple were born outside Croatia, a couple more had youth careers in Croatia before moving and eventually moving back)

And once again, it's a country with a smaller population and far less wealth. And the league itself has an average attendance that is now about the same as the LOI's this season. How much would it cost to add a couple of coaches to every LOI club? A couple of million euros per year? The Irish government and the FAI can't come up with that to ensure the long-term success of the national team.

Keep our young stars in Ireland until their 18-21, get them playing senior football early, make it known that every LOI game will feature a couple of future Irish internationals, get attendances up further, get higher transfer fees when they do move.

But they need enough coaches to be able to get tailored support and guidance. The U-17s are doing great with what they have, imagine if they had more support. Brexit could be a curse or a blessing - it's up to the authorities to decide which it will be.

The graph is relevant to both discussions, so quoting it here

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Originally Posted by Eirambler

The graph on this tweet tells its own story. Poland with an average of more than 10 dedicated youth coaches per top flight club. Ireland with less than one. And Poland aren't even the outlier here, we are. We need to put an end to this "Brexit is the best thing to happen" nonsense - it's the exact opposite.

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I disagree , Brexit is the best thing to happen, without question.
If we keep our players for longer and get actual transfers instead of zero when the boys head over at 15 or 16 the clubs can invest in more coaches for the academies as there is a potential return available.

Its entirely likely that some of the lads playing in the u17 championships will be bought by european clubs following the tournamnet or when they hit 18 by UK clubs , in previous years most of these boys would have been gone already with no fees paid.

This money can help to fund coaches

But meanwhile, the current group aren't getting the best possible coaching as we can see from the stats above. It feels like they may end up being disadvantaged on the basis that much higher transfer fees from their sale (that I have little confidence in the clubs successfully negotiating in any case) might be used to fund a better setup for future generations (or they could as easily be wasted on other stuff). But my guess is they'll still leave for pennies when they do go and we'll be hearing the same thing again about the next generation after them.

It's not for these lads to fund the future of Irish football, it's up to the association and the clubs to find more appropriate means of doing that.

Eirambler.

I had a quick read of that report and maybe those charts give an incorrect picture? There are based on a summer 2019 questionnaire survey with clubs in the top tier of the LOI at the time (i.e. pre-Brexit – have “structures” changed since then?). Comparisons in the chart are with the top-tier in other countries – i.e. financially larger clubs with “in-house” youth development. This differs from the LOI as youth development is more in terms of club partnerships – for example, Bohs and Rovers have an affiliate club model (Maybe this skews the number of (directly employed) coaches figures?). And add to this is the fact we have literally outsourced the development of our elite youth players – from schoolboy clubs directly to the UK, bypassing LOI structures. The amount of U18 kids we have sent abroad is frankly shameful. No other country is close to our outward U18 transfers in the period 2011 – 2020 – see here https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/47c2f0...ers-Report.pdf) (Not seeing the benefits in the senior team from sending so many away btw.)

Can’t really expect the LOI to have and to fund elite youth training academies when we’ve given away the elite to populate those academies. And you can’t use that as an argument for continuing to send kids abroad as that is literally the reason our infrastructure is behind the rest of Europe. Brexit is clearly an opportunity to improve and fine tune structures, and if a kid really wants to good abroad, the continent remains open to them (I'm sure a few of our current U17 internationals are catching eyes atm).

The league of Ireland academy structures are also a very recent development. It's taken time to get them in place and the resources are only really starting to go into them now. What we're seeing is that academy system already producing some excellent players and with more resources and more funding from transfers coming it, I'd expect that to keep getting better. Look at what's happened with Roadstone for Rovers, largely on the back of the Bazunu deal (and he was arguably the first to be produced by the new league of Ireland academy structure). There's obviously a lot of talent and good coaching going on. There's huge potential there to add more resources, get more contact time with players and to keep them in Ireland a bit longer, without damaging their prospects. Both clubs and the FAI could probably do more, but there's at least some evidence that it might be on the right track.

Certainly the gist of Dan McDonnell's article on the subject today is that nothing much has changed and reaching the knockouts of this tournament potentially papers over a lot of cracks.

Interesting to see potential German interest in Melia, though he'd need to wait until 16 obviously. Since Brexit Germany isn't a country that we have seen to many Irish born lads head to, but it offers potential as a league where the youth development facilities are in place and the barrier to first team minutes at most clubs isn't as high as in the Premier League or at top Serie A clubs like Inter and AC Milan. Sounds like Razi might be heading for Portugal.