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In fairness "putting the ball in the net" is the number one objective for a centre forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jolly Red Giant
I don't know about the xG (or particularly care because I think it's a ridiculous "stat") but for me that needed to go through the keepers legs.
Agreed. The keeper made the goal almost impossible. But they got one and, in reality, Idah made it happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
Sofascore is saying 0.16. At least I think that's what it saysQuote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
https://www.sofascore.com/football/m...tab:statistics
<EDIT>
Sorry, 0.16 is for the shot that was saved, the shot off the post at 81m had an xG of 0.02
Again last night Celtic, mainly via Maeda, got behind the full back and sent in dangerous low crosses that the striker failed to get on the end of. Kyogo the culprit. When he did connect he was carelessly offside. I was thinking at the time that if Idah had done everything Kyogo did or didn't do in the first half he'd be slaughtered. That's what having credit in the bank does.
So, does that confirm that the keeper had done his job well in advance of the shot, or does it say it was a rubbish shot?!Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Kyogo was caught off-side poorly a few times ~ ~ Like a guy that knows, he doesn't have the pace against those defenders !Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
Fair dues to Idah for the goal ~ He kept himself on-side !
Well, Kyogo is on his way now, heading to Rennes. Would have to assume Adam will have some new competition for the centre forward spot by the end of the month.
Wondering if an Evan Ferguson loan might be a consideration.
That would be a great opportunity for Evan Ferguson.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eirambler
fbref says 0.31 xG and 0.42 PSxG.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
So a decent chance (0.31 is reasonably high, although still far from a sure thing), Idah did ok out of it (PSxG higher than xG), and a good save from the keeper (from a 0.42 shot - that is, the keeper was still favourite). Sounds reasonable.
And as always, you don't have to believe those right down to the second decimal place.
Stu, ow can sofascore and fbref have such wildly different numbers? Means at least one set of numbers is a total farceQuote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
It's more a description of how hard it is to score from the situation Idah was in.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
My understanding of xG is that it's the chance of a shot from that situation resulting in a goal, going from zero - no player in this situation has ever scored - to one - every single shot that's ever been taken in this situation has gone in.
Idah's first shot had an xG of 0.02 - so if 100 players were in the same situation, standing in that spot on the pitch, shooting with the same foot, with the opposition goalkeeper in the same position, it would result in two goals (2/100=0.02)
Could be working off different data sets, or have a different method of calculating the value.Quote:
Originally Posted by elatedscum
SkySports have similar numbers to sofascore for Idah's two shots - 0.025 and 0.161
https://www.skysports.com/football/c.../report/521717
(scroll down to xG race - Idah's shots are the last two dots on the graph)
Don't know tbh. I think there is a complication in instances like this where there's a rebound - that is, two shots in one, but the xG can't be the sum of the two shots because it wasn't possible for the two shots to go in. It could be one model is more refined than the other and is adjusting for that. It may be that 0.16 (per Sky Sports) is the xG of Idah's shot, but 0.31 (per fbref) is the xG of the chance as a whole, which includes the rebound. I can see other shots are more evenly scored - so Darian Males had shots on 62 and 63 which were scored 0.09/0.29 on fbref and 0.086/0.278 on Sky Sports, while the penalty is scored 0.79 by both, and Kuhn's early chance is 0.204 on Sky Sports v 0.22 on fbref.Quote:
Originally Posted by elatedscum
But I won't pretend to be an expert on it of course.
There are a couple of books about it, though I won't be recommending either for my wife's book club. Here and here.
But regardless of the number of decimal places and the actual methodology, the numbers suggest "fluffed" would be a particularly unfair assessment of how Idah fared in the situation he was in?
I read this one by Rory Smith recently. Same idea - and yeah, it was a little bit stodgy, a lot of people in third-world countries spending hours tagging a single game for reasonable pay (for the region; cheap by Western standards of course) - and a lot of secrecy around what exactly was being captured, which rather took away from the point of reading the book.
But there's a lot of money being spent in the area, there's data analysts being hired by top clubs for a reason, and there's data clubs (like Brighton, as mentioned on the Cashin thread) who seem to be doing quite well out of it. I don't think it can be dismissed as quackery.
And a football optics basis and FWIW, I agree with you it's a bit unfair to say Idah fluffed his chance. Though he clearly got a bit lucky with the rebound, but that's football.
The stats are interesting, and it wasn't a tap in of course, but if that ball spins away into space off the keeper or if the defender manages to hack it away or even get himself out of the way, the whole mood music is different today about that chance lads.
But it didn't, and I am delighted for Idah, a CL winning contribution in a pressure game, late on in what would have been, again, very different coverage today had they not won.
So moving on, this can't be a blip or buying a bit of pressure space, he needs to score again soon and then again after that. He can't relax on this.
100% on all of that.
My understanding is there’s a huge difference between the data clubs have and the data that is available to the public. And that the majority of premier league clubs pay for proprietary data systems or have built their own.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
I feel to a certain extent they’ve got HD cameras capturing every movement and we’re here arguing with packs of crayons arguing over what it all means
I'm going to call it a "forced own goal" as his run had the defenders scrambling back and his shot was good enough at close quarters to force the keeper to kick it into the path of the retreating defender. And it turned a draw into a victory, to earn Celtic an extra €1,400,000, plus sealed a spot in the knockout round play-off, adding €1,000,000 to the Celtic Kitty. 60,000 at Parkhead for the home tie should add a few million more. And Celtic fans were beginning to wonder if Idah was worth the money.
Some reports are saying Celtic will clear £34m from the champions League
Enough money to buy a replacement for Idah :p
Jota is supposed to be returning to Celtic as part of the Kyogo move to Rennes
2 goals for him at Villa Park!
Both finishes you wouldn't associate with a striker who hadn't scored in 14.
One a very quick reaction to sort his feet out to finish a deflection. The second needed smart movement from Idah and he finished superbly under pressure from the keeper.
Back in England ! !
Both well taken goals. His hold up play and use of his body to bully defenders also notable. If he can evolve his game to play like he is today on a regular basis we have a player.
This is the point about Idah. He has qualities that a) aren't common but b) tend to develop a little later in players. We see glimpses of them from time to time.Quote:
Originally Posted by irishfan86
Two good finishes to be fair. Can't do anything against Ross County and St Mirren among others and then scores two away against Villa, the man remains a mystery.
Handy one for him against Real Madrid or Bayern Munich next.
Maybe never getting 90 mins messes with a lads head. With Kyogo gone hopefully he'll get the confidence from being 1st choice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eirambler
Possibly part of it is that he struggles against the low block that most SPL teams play against Celtic because he can't use his pace to run away from defenders, so he actually ends up doing better against better teams where there's more space to run into. However neither of the goals last night particularly back that up and his Ireland performances to date haven't shown much sign of that either. Maybe he's just extremely inconsistent.
His time at Norwich didn't suggest deep defences were particularly the problem either.
But let's see if the goals help his confidence a bit.
With three goals, Idah is now the joint third highest Irish goalscorer in the Champions League, alongside Ian Harte and Damien Duff, and only one behind Irwin on four.
Great to see. Hopefully he'll take that confidence boost into a run of goals.
That game was crying out for Maeda last night. Yang just wasn't up to it. If Maeda was playing Idah could have scored more :)
I commented above that Celtic manage to get into positions to drill low balls across the box a lot (Kilmarnock game?) but Idah doesn't seem to have the knack of being right place/right time. Then against Young Boys it was Kyogo that failed in the same way. And ages ago I bemoaned Idah's inability to be in the right place for the easy (looking) finish, but that in itself is a talent - one that Ferguson seems to have.
That said, I think it often depends on a bit of luck too. The McGinn deflection for example. But what an athletic finish. And the second was a perfect centre forward's goal, and I think he showed great awareness to lift it over Martinez. He has in the past shown a good ability to lose his defender and get there first (crucial late goal vs. Motherwell away, SFA Cup Final...) so if he and Kuhn / Jota / Maeda are on the same wavelength he could thrive.
That's often what a down-on-his-luck striker needs: a snap reaction goal, rather than one that requires thought.Quote:
Originally Posted by yurt
Breaks his domestic duck against Motherwell this afternoon
Only 5 off the golden boot :P
Very good game in general today I think.
Yes he played well. Forced an own goal (after some very poor defending from Shane Blaney and the Motherwell back line in general), but he was a couple of inches offside in the build up. Then had a smart low shot tipped onto the post by the Motherwell keeper. Was taken off for the last 15.
Will be interesting to see if some centre forward competition for him is signed by the end of tomorrow. 10 points clear in the league and with a no hoper draw in the Champions League they may decide to hold fire until the summer.