Ah yes self righteous geysir, the clairvoyant lone wolf running free in the Icelandic wilderness. I'm sure he'll remind everyone how right he was, oh wait....Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_oshea
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Ah yes self righteous geysir, the clairvoyant lone wolf running free in the Icelandic wilderness. I'm sure he'll remind everyone how right he was, oh wait....Quote:
Originally Posted by paul_oshea
Now now,
of course the discussion was relating to Sweden's chances of finishing in top second spot and I felt their run in was a lot harder than it would appear to those not in the know :)
Yes Nolely, if we make it to the play offs, you would't want to be paired with a functioning Portugal.
99% of my attention is on the game tomorrow and the rest looks at what could happen :)
HAha, like any good betting man geysir got it right, and just like any good betting man with conditions etc, he also predicted that Mccarthy would be in Midfield for us now.
What he didn't predict was how Trap viewed Mccarthy and what type of player he sees him as. Trap will never play the likes of Mccarthy, in his head he thinks he needs to play in the front of a diamond(if there is such a thing ;) ) and not as a second midfielder, and with such a weak midfield and our strongest area is the 2 strikers, Mccarthy will never be a mainstay whilst Trap is in charge and we have whelan and andrews as the best option midfielders.
Azerbaijan beat Kazakhstan 3-2 in group A today. It means that if Turkey do end up finishing second in that group, as expected, their loss against Azerbaijan will almost certainly not be eliminated from their record and will count against them in the runners-up rankings. We'll probably rank ahead of them if we win our next two and finish second, although I still think either Norway or Croatia will take the automatic qualification spot for best runner-up.
Elsewhere, Holland are beating Finland 1-0 away. Half-time in that game.
So we'd be looking for Israel to get a result in Croatia tonight?
And Denmark to beat Norway?
I still think Norway will finish with more than 15 points even if they lose to Denmark. As will Denmark if they beat Norway and somehow manage to clinch second place in that group. Both of them still have Cyprus to play. 15 points is the maximum we can achieve in the runners-up table.Quote:
Originally Posted by elroy
A win for Israel would be great though, but second place in group H will surely take the automatic spot.
Israel ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Just thinking, unless Armenia get a result tonight then its probably best that our group wont have the automatic second spot. Otherwise Russia and Slovakia will definitely just play out a draw in their game.
3 points taken from a possible (albeit highly unlikely) 12 against the top seeds and still in with a chance of automatic qualification. Crazy group.
Hmm. Anyone care to update the 2nd place permutations?Quote:
Originally Posted by elroy
Russia 17
Ireland 15
Armenia 14
Slovakia 14
Macedonia 7
Andorra 0
7 October
Armenia - Macedonia
Slovakia - Russia
Andorra - Ireland
11 October
Russia - Andorra
Ireland - Armenia
Macedonia - Slovakia
If we win both our matches we are guaranteed at least second place. If we do that and Slovakia beat Russia we get first.
Croatia won tonight so I think automatic 2nd place is well out of our group now
I am emotionally and physically drained from the day's events. Crazy but ultimately very satisfying day. Don't know what more to say really, been going crazy on mobile and facebook for the last 3 hrs, have no energy left. Going to bed a happy man. We are so so so close . . . . . .
Croatia have to be favorites to win their group and Greece for 2nd spot, Greece only drew away to Latvia tonight.Quote:
Croatia won tonight so I think automatic 2nd place is well out of our group now
We won't get the automatic qualification spot for runner-up if either Denmark or Norway beat Cyprus. Croatia may well win group F now. They're a point ahead of Greece although those two still have to play one another. Greece are on 18 points though with two games to go. Croatia are on 19 with two games to go. If they both tally over 21 points, that'll also knock us out of the running. Really can't see us taking the runner-up spot, although if all those teams do somehow manage to mess things up completely à la Slovakia this evening and they end up on 15 in the runners-up table, goal difference will come into play.
After tonight I don't think the Armenia game can be taken for granted. With our poor home record, they'll be coming in hope. A Slovakia win over Russia on the next matchday give us a great chance to win the group.
I'm wondering where the two draws against higher-ranked opposition will leave us as regards the rankings that will dictate possible seeding for the play-offs. This list needs to be updated, but we'll have a better idea how we're faring when it is as, at present, we wouldn't be seeded in any play-off draw: http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011
In the meantime, these are the current second-placed teams throughout all the groups:
http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/c...one85/ties.png
"AG" stands for "away goals" and "rating" is the team's current UEFA ranking. The others are pretty obvious.
We have one game left, as far as that table is concerned, as our results against Andorra will be discounted from the tie-breaking tally. So, if any of those other teams manages over 15 points for the purposes of the tie-breaking table, we'll have to settle for the play-offs if we finish second. If no team manages 16 or more points but one or more finish on 15 points, it will be decided on goal difference. It's not likely it will come to that anyway, and even if it does, you can see that the likes of Sweden and Denmark have superior goal differences to us at present. Unless we bag a few against Andorra, of course. Still, I can't see it coming down to goal difference as far as we're concerned anyway.
Edit: Actually, no, sorry. We'd have to score our goals against Armenia as our Andorra games will be discounted.
You'd expect Denmark to beat Cyprus so we can forget that.
I think it was called "The group that couldn't slow down"
I think it was called "The group that couldn't slow down"
Russia 17
Ireland 15
Armenia 14
Slovakia 14
Macedonia 7
Andorra 0
7 October
Armenia - Macedonia
Slovakia - Russia
Andorra - Ireland
11 October
Russia - Andorra
Ireland - Armenia
Macedonia - Slovakia
Simplify this by awarding 3 points from Andorra
Russia 9 20
Ireland 9 18
Armenia 8 14
Slovakia 8 14
Macedonia 7
Andorra 19 0
7 October
Armenia - Macedonia
Slovakia - Russia
11 October
Ireland - Armenia
Macedonia - Slovakia
So 4 matches which could go any of 3 ways I think that is 81 combinations?
Worth pointing out that if we lose our last match we can still qualify?
Everything will be decided by the final game.
Let's say Slovakian fails to beat Russia (likely). That means a win in Andorra and a draw against Armenia gets us second.Quote:
Originally Posted by Metrostars
2 points this week, yet a pivotal advantage over Slovakia. Mad stuff.
We must be overwhelming favourites to get a play-off spot at this stage. Slim chance, but a chance, to win the group.
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For the 1,876th time on foot.ie: I think there's not much wrong with our team that a good central midfield wouldn't change.
Dunne, Sledge & O'Dea all showed their mettle in the last few days. Kelly did well - better than O'Shea imo.
Unfortunately, having a sub-par midfield makes us a poor team. Dogged, but poor.
Am I right in thinking that we can't top the group if Slovakia don't beat Russia?
Oh today's performance by Slovakia the chances of Russia not beating Slovakia are zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by theworm2345
Fortunately it won't be played today!!
(1) Only if Armenia lose to Macedonia (unlikely). If that game is a draw, there's no way Armenia can come behind us I think. Anything worse than 0-1 means they beat us on head-to-head. Even 0-1 means they'll go through on GD, because they scored more goals against Slovakia than we even got corners.Quote:
Originally Posted by tricky_colour
(2) Don't think so.
Yep, if Russian get a point we can only match them on points and that is not good enough as Russia have beat us.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Barring a bizarre result, the Armenia game is key. Only if Slovakia beats Russia and we fail to beat Andorra is a play-off out of our hands.
Put another way, we beat Andorra and draw with Armenia = 19 points. Slovakia need to win twice.
As a season ticket holder who has paid upfront, I hereby give my approval to the FAI to undercut my ticket price and offer the bandwagon jumping, instant gratification seeking Irish public a €10 ticket to fill the house. Nah, make that €5.
If we can't beat Andorra we might as well give up, or at least hope for other results to go our way.
Are the games in OCT also Friday/Tuesday? I hate that ****.
me also!Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
but please put them in their own isolated section so i dont have to listen to 90 mins of premiership and celtic talk from those around me
Also conditional, have a water cannon in place for the first signs of a mexican wave.
I think it's just our dna level fatalism doesn't really anticipate other results going our way in the crucial run-in, whereas it seems par for the course in general that pressure/exhaustion sets in and contenders trip over themselves. Just that 4 nil is freaky and they are coming our way.
But Slovakia were well knackered by the end of the first half. The game was played at a frenzied pace in the first half, the Slovaks were burnt out in the 2nd half and easy meat for the perky Armenians.
Yup. But the Armenia game suddenly looks a hell of a lot tougher. We always thought it'd be key while keeping an eye on Slovakia's last game; now, it's key for our opponents as well, who may well be on a roll (assuming they beat Macedonia). Going to be a massive, massive game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
Also, if only Robbie had scored that peno in Bratislava... (And if ifs and buts were candy and nuts...)
It does look a very outside chance that Slovakia will do us a favour and beat Russia.
There was me doubting those stats & projections by Castrol that Danny put up the other day!
Win our 2 games and it's at least a play off. I'd have taken that at HT yesterday when we couldn't get out of our own half!
Accroding to the wiki article on the group - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Eu...s_and_fixtures - the Slovakia v Russia game kicks off at 8:15 CET, with the Andorra v Ireland game at 9:30 CET (at least that's how I'm reading it) so it'll be into the second half in the other game before we kick off. Could have some idea of what is needed at that stage
If ever there was a post that summed it up...Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
Was thinking the same this morning Stutt. Look at our first choice XI
Given, JOSH, Sledge and Dunne. Absolutely no problem, in fact its a damn fine defence. Left back is a problem.
On the wings we have McG, Duff and Hunt (two from that three obviously). Again good options, McG has improved this campaign, still dont think he is as good as some Celtic fans profess but he has improved and defensively he was fantastic yday - not a previous strong point of his.
CM - Problems.
Up front - Keane, Doyle, Long, Cox, Walters, Best. Again a pretty strong/decent array of options here.
The lads on the highlights show last night pointed out some errors in our basic flat 4 midfield system that appeared (worryingly) in both Russian games. They played a diamond system and passed the ball around us - with ridiculous ease. Whos to say Armenia wont try a similar system!!?! Whelan and Andrews though they try very hard and just not good enough at controlling a game or imposing themselves on the game. I think our options are either seek a stronger alternative, McCarthy maybe but honestly Im not sure if one is there. The other option is to play a similar system ourselves, employing Fahey/McCarthy in an attacking midfielder sort of role. Yes it would take from our attack somewhat (But what attack was there yday). It hopefully would help Andrews/WHelan out, give me an immediate option and also also the two wingers to link in and move further up the field. IMO our wingers are our best form of attack. Thoughts?
Meh. I think we all know we need to beat Andorra in fairness. Shouldn't need another half-time to tell us that.Quote:
Originally Posted by tetsujin1979
Lads whatever about our midfield being poor, it is not just simply a case of replacing them. Ye are reading it wrong.
When andrews/kelly/hunt put them under pressure they lost the ball twice, i think whelan and andrews made 1 tackle each further up the field we won the ball back.
There was 3 occassions when Tardelli was shouting at Trap because we just sat too deep and literally didn't make any tackles and they played the ball around us. Tardelli was fuming.
The tactics are horribly wrong. We need to be more aggresive in our defending. A wing and a prayer and some terrible finishing by Russia, saved us last night. It wont save us again.
Take yer heads out of the sand and stop covering your eyes.