LOI in Europe 2022

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Originally Posted by sullanefc

Are these results blips, or signs that the quality in the LOI is regressing? Outside of Shamrock is it a poor league this year?

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I think the standard has been regressing the last few years. Last year the two Rovers both lost to leagues ranked outside the top 50 - the first time that had ever happened. Dundalk were moments away from making that three (losing against Levadia Tallinn into injury time). Rovers beating Brann in 2019 was a great result, but aside from that, the only teams from higher-ranked leagues we've beaten in the past six years have been Iceland, Luxembourg and Moldova. And that's with our rating being quite low (so more higher-rated leagues to beat) In 2016, Cork and Dundalk (three times) did it, but they've imploded since then and only Rovers have filled that gap (and I think they've only reached Cork levels, not Dundalk levels).

Dundalk made the group stages in 2020 of course, but they had an incredibly lucky draw to get there (helped by covid). TDundalk v Vitesse and Bohs v PAOK last year were a hint at what used to happen semi-regularly in the 2000s (Bohs' run was very solid all the way through actually), though I think there was a hint of pre-season rust helping us in those. But are they the real blips? We won more matches than ever before last year, but of course the change of format helps (more chances for the champions; easier games for the Conference League teams) and other countries also got a bumper coefficient too.

You can say FC Riga spent €1.6m on a player (which I don't understand for a 22-year-old Croatian ex-U18 international), and there was an attempt to pass Flora Tallinn off as a decent side last year - but when you see Devoy/Mandriou going for the sort of pittance transfer fees being mooted, then it's no wonder we're a backwater in Euro competitions.

As ger121 has said, it certainly can happen that teams put in poor early performances and then improve as Europe goes on (Dundalk's first Europa League group a great case in point). But given the focus on Europe - changing to summer soccer, postponing games for qualified teams - the return has been really disappointing the last while. I'm not sure if the Derry performance (for being so expected) or the Sligo one (for being unexpected) was more disappointing.

Anyways, all that has set Rovers up nicely to beat Razgrad next week!

The return may be questionable (I think peaks and troughs are inevitable with a usually competitive league hindering the building of seedings) but how would it be without the couple of things that help like a summer season and allowing fixtures be rescheduled. If the possibility was annual humiliation or perpetually struggling against similarly ranked then I dont think we'd have a jump in attendances, even if it doesnt last, and I dont think we would have much ground to stand on with transfer fees albeit a lot of work still needs doing on that, it would have added weight to 'problem child' attitude among some in the FAI.

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

The return may be questionable but how would it be without the couple of things that help like a summer season and allowing fixtures be rescheduled.

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It barely bears thinking about!

Some of the leagues (eg the Faroes, NI) are ahead of us because of quirks in the seedings - particularly them playing preliminary rounds and getting extra points there - so I think all we can say is we're somewhere in the 36-46 bracket, probably towards the lower end, which is usually the case.

But the seeding quirks are there, and without the steps taken to help Euro teams, we could easily be looking at dropping into the bottom five every now and again and losing a Euro spot (as happened the North a couple of years back)

It's great the FAI have targetted improvement in this area, but their target of 30th in Europe in five years is completely unrealistic and makes me wonder how realistic the detail behind it is too. Will it even do anything? Are we destined to be still losing to poorer, smaller, Baltic states in ten years' time?

Against that, you would still be hopeful of Rovers making the Conference League group stages from here; winning that opening tie makes a huge difference.

Domestic fixtures should only be postponed where a team has to play 2 European games 6 days apart e.g. Wednesday and the following Tuesday. In all other scenarios, the domestic fixtures should 3 days after a European game, allowing 4 days before the next European fixture. Examples are Tuesday-Friday-Tuesday, Tuesday-Friday/Saturday -Wednesday, Wednesday-Saturday-Wednesday and Thursday-Sunday-Thursday.

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Originally Posted by legendz

Domestic fixtures should only be postponed where a team has to play 2 European games 6 days apart e.g. Wednesday and the following Tuesday. In all other scenarios, the domestic fixtures should 3 days after a European game, allowing 4 days before the next European fixture. Examples are Tuesday-Friday-Tuesday, Tuesday-Friday/Saturday -Wednesday, Wednesday-Saturday-Wednesday and Thursday-Sunday-Thursday.

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Wait until Kerry have a team in Europe and see if youd still want such a schedule Legendz lol.

On the preliminary round quirks you mention Stu, I may have moaned about this before but it makes sense to me that clubs are awarded co-efficient points and money as if they had won the ties to get to the round in which they enter. Otherwise it penalises clubs for improving their ranking on merit. So parachuted in to EL QR3, for example, well you have lost the chance to pick up 6 potentially winnable games and maybe prizemoney for those wins. I know there have been some changes but it doesnt make sense for the relative ability/record of a club to be skewed because they didnt have a prelim game or that those that play in prelim games for x number of years can leapfrog higher ranking 'cause they have a round extra on top of the points for qualfying for Europe. Some might argue that it is reward enough to start in later rounds and it makes little difference to leagues ranked in higher 30s but for LoI as mentioned it could cost us a place. If I am making any sense here.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

I think the standard has been regressing the last few years. Last year the two Rovers both lost to leagues ranked outside the top 50 - the first time that had ever happened. Dundalk were moments away from making that three (losing against Levadia Tallinn into injury time). Rovers beating Brann in 2019 was a great result, but aside from that, the only teams from higher-ranked leagues we've beaten in the past six years have been Iceland, Luxembourg and Moldova. And that's with our rating being quite low (so more higher-rated leagues to beat) In 2016, Cork and Dundalk (three times) did it, but they've imploded since then and only Rovers have filled that gap (and I think they've only reached Cork levels, not Dundalk levels).

Dundalk made the group stages in 2020 of course, but they had an incredibly lucky draw to get there (helped by covid). TDundalk v Vitesse and Bohs v PAOK last year were a hint at what used to happen semi-regularly in the 2000s (Bohs' run was very solid all the way through actually), though I think there was a hint of pre-season rust helping us in those. But are they the real blips? We won more matches than ever before last year, but of course the change of format helps (more chances for the champions; easier games for the Conference League teams) and other countries also got a bumper coefficient too.

You can say FC Riga spent €1.6m on a player (which I don't understand for a 22-year-old Croatian ex-U18 international), and there was an attempt to pass Flora Tallinn off as a decent side last year - but when you see Devoy/Mandriou going for the sort of pittance transfer fees being mooted, then it's no wonder we're a backwater in Euro competitions.

As ger121 has said, it certainly can happen that teams put in poor early performances and then improve as Europe goes on (Dundalk's first Europa League group a great case in point). But given the focus on Europe - changing to summer soccer, postponing games for qualified teams - the return has been really disappointing the last while. I'm not sure if the Derry performance (for being so expected) or the Sligo one (for being unexpected) was more disappointing.

Anyways, all that has set Rovers up nicely to beat Razgrad next week!

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I think it's a mixed picture to be honest. The standard in the league is undoubtedly a bit lower tha it has been at other points in this century (quite hoe much lower is moot and open to debate). 10-15yrs ago in particular. But at the same time, the standard of football in other previously/traditionally weaker nations has also improved. 30yrs ago the continent was full of international teams and leagues who were pretty awful, and who you'd bet the house on beating if drawn against. But that pool of awfulness has diminshed over time. Derry comfortably beat the predecessor of Riga FC in 2009, but were comfortabke beatn by the this year. Even teams from places like Iceland, the Faroes, Gibraltar are no longer the hapless whipping boys they once were. So we've probably regressed a little, but I think the bigger issue is that so many of the other lower leagues have progressed quite a bit at the same time.

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Originally Posted by EatYerGreens

Derry comfortably beat the predecessor of Rigas FC in 2009, but were comfortabke beatn by the this year. Even teams from places like Iceland, the Faroes, Gibraltar ar o loge rthe hapless whipping boys they once were. So we've probably regressed a little, but I think the bigger issue is that so many of the other lower leagues have progressed quite a bit at the same time.

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Derry only won 2-1 in 2009.

I think we've regressed a lot since 2009 - that was the tail end of the money era - but maybe in the last ten years the decline hasn't been so bad, the lack of a second decent team aside. But if we're regressing slowly and other leagues are improving, that ultimately ends up the same thing I guess.

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

On the preliminary round quirks you mention Stu, I may have moaned about this before but it makes sense to me that clubs are awarded co-efficient points and money as if they had won the ties to get to the round in which they enter. Otherwise it peanalises clubs for improving their ranking on merit.

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Yeah, I don't know why that doesn't happen to be honest (in the same way that it does with club coefficients) I think it also compresses the UEFA rankings in that the next bracket up from us - say 25th to 35th - is a lot further away than the mere numbers show, because they're "missing" points from the rounds they got the bye through (like how we're missing points from the results St Pat's would have picked up in the first round of the Conference League...if any :p)

The main reason we don't make group stages is an utter lack of any idea at all how to score a goal. Derry and Sligo could have played for 10 hours straight and still not scored in their home games, in front of their fans. That often makes away trip legs literally insurmountable mountains. And when chances do present themselves, so many howlers and sitters missed down the years by dozens of teams and then conceding comedically soft goals that very few teams have to work for (like Bala's goal last night. As soft as chocolate melting in the sun) There seems to be a desperate dearth of coaches that are technically proficient enough to impart finishing wisdom to players. There are any number of players that need a wide open goal from 3 yards out to ensure they score. It's a real blight. You have to take your chances in Europe or else. Sligo used up all their 9 cat lives last night.

European teams have the advantage of well earned financial gain from their European exploits. Success brings extra games. Domestic clubs should not forced into postponements, unless there is a 6 day gap. If Kerry FC have such a fixture headache, after 3 years in existence, bring it on and embrace it! 😎

It'd be interesting to see the stats on chance to goal ratio over the years, I agree Irish teams seem to need a number of chances to put one away and European opposition could have 2 chances and score both. The quality of strikers is obviously an aspect, psychology/belief also. I do think there was a fear factor involved that became a self fulfilling prophecy - players desperate not to be the ones to have that annual calamity actually causing the calamity. Memory skews things, but the perception I have from years of watching LoI in Europe is often reasonably competing but then self implode in a moment of defensive madness (and missed sitters - Kilduff in injury time v Rosenborg that would have put Dundalk through on away goals still bugs me, but then against Alkmaar his equaliser will never be forgotten). Pro S+C I think gave us a lift becuase helped prevent the compulsory late collapse, but even Bruno's have done their work there now. Some of the above could have been applied to RoI sides too imo. Solutions are decades of proper coaching from a young age and of course money to improve all aspects of a club. We're starting to see some young lads breaking through and in the general scheme of things 10 years isnt terribly long for the development of players that can cope with the pressure and dont panic when they are given the ball.

Using European games to judge the standard of the league here relative to itself is a bit pointless in my opinion. Other European leagues don't have the FAI to contend with and have actually improved over time. Some also just have dodgy money pouring into them that we don't have. You could play Sherrif one year and beat them and then get hockeyed the year after with the same team.

You could look at how many players here are bought by teams abroad and how they fare maybe. Or just look at the players in the league over successive seasons. Dundalk were a standout team in the league but I don't think the standard of player currently playing in the league is any worse now than it was 5,6,7,8,9,10 years ago. Maybe it is now that half the leagues talent has been snapped up in the last two weeks mind you.

And stu we can continue the "were Flora a good side" debate elsewhere if you'd like as it feels a bit stale now....(let it go man let it go)...but! they qualified for the ECL group and picked up results. They were never beaten badly by teams ranked far above them and even beat Partizan...If an Irish club did similar it would be deemed a success so I think that speaks for itself to be honest. Didn't help that we played them with a hobbled team but they were no pushovers and proved that further on in the competition.

As for the FAIs strategic plan to get us there.....my god. Have we already blown the ranking target? With all the help they gave us? Shocker.

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Originally Posted by ontheotherhand

Using European games to judge the standard of the league here relative to itself is a bit pointless in my opinion.

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I don't buy that. No business can make progress by naval gazing at itself. External benchmarking is key for a sense of perspective. Yes, there'll be some freak results like Sheriff changing their entire squad in the space of 12 months, but over the last five years of the coefficients, that'll balance itself out, and other teams will face similar teams.

Flora reached the groups by beating Hibs of Malta and Rovers. That's all. They lost two other matches. They picked up some results in the groups, sure - but we can't be making excuses for losing badly to a team from a country with a population a quarter of ours and league attendances about a fifth of the LoI's. Instead of making excuses about losing to them, or saying "If the LoI had achieved those results...", we should be aiming towards regular results like that, or better. And by and large, we're not getting them.

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Originally Posted by Nesta99

It'd be interesting to see the stats on chance to goal ratio over the year, I agree Irish teams seem to need a number of chances to put one away and European opposition could have 2 chances and score both. The quality of strikers is obviously an aspect, psychology/belief also. I do think there was a fear factor involved that became a self fulling prophecy - players desperate not to be the ones to have that annual calamity actually causing the calamity. Memory skews things, but the perception I have from years of watching LoI in Europe is often reasonably competing but then self implode in a moment of defensive madness (and missed sitters - Kilduff in injury time v Rosenborg that would have t Dundalk through on away goals still bugs me, but then against Alkmaar his equaliser will never be forgotten). Pro S+C I think gave us a lift becuase helped prevent the compulsory late collapse, but even Bruno's have done their work there now. Some of the above could have been applied to RoI sides too imo. Solutions are decades of proper coaching from a young age and of course money to improve all aspects of a club. We're starting to see some young lads breaking through and in the general scheme of things 10 years isnt terribly long for the development of players that can cope with the pressure and dont panic when they are given the ball.

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I have a very dear English friend, and Man United fan, and I've gotten him interested in the LOI in the last few years. We watched the Sligo-Bala game last night and he said exactly this.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

I don't buy that. No business can make progress by naval gazing at itself. External benchmarking is key for a sense of perspective. Yes, there'll be some freak results like Sheriff changing their entire squad in the space of 12 months, but over the last five years of the coefficients, that'll balance itself out, and other teams will face similar teams.

Flora reached the groups by beating Hibs of Malta and Rovers. That's all. They lost two other matches. They picked up some results in the groups, sure - but we can't be making excuses for losing badly to a team from a country with a population a quarter of ours and league attendances about a fifth of the LoI's. Instead of making excuses about losing to them, or saying "If the LoI had achieved those results...", we should be aiming towards regular results like that, or better. And by and large, we're not getting them.

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I agree with you on what we SHOULD be doing but this is the LoI stu....Benchmarking against organisations that have more resources pumped into them isn't a good way to measure our leagues standard relative to itself year on year. You're talking like the LoI is a business entity competing in a market and it isn't. I'd agree that's how we should measure ourselves if we had any sort of plan to improve the league outside of random individuals getting involved and wanting things to be better at club level rather than league level, but until we are there it doesn't make sense to say "ah we lost to a team from X nation with a population of Y" so we must all be going backwards. Who cares if they are able to spend more money or they catch us on a bad day? Sure Cork has a bigger population than Drogheda and they are in different leagues. If Cork beat Drogs in the cup will it say the First Division as a whole is stronger than the Premier or the Premier division standard has gone down overall?

Flora went on to qualify for the groups and beat Partizan. They lost 1-0 to Gent. You can cherry pick results from their journey there if you like but what happened after is that they competed about as well as a LoI side would hope to.

I think teams being in Europe year in year out is a factor. The more they play each year the better it stands to them. Also leads to being seeded and the chance of a better draw. Some of our sides recently have not been regular qualifiers - Derry, Pats, Bohs and Sligo. Again by regular I mean 3-4 years+ in a row. When Rovers, Dundalk, Cork and even Pats back in their run do it, you see some very good results and years with getting into later rounds or even a group stage. As I said, this is just one of many factors, some of which have been well explained in previous posts.

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Originally Posted by ontheotherhand

I'd agree that's how we should measure ourselves if we had any sort of plan to improve the league outside of random individuals getting involved and wanting things to be better at club level rather than league level,
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I still can't agree with that; it's very defeatist.

Does the Estonian league really have more resources pumped into it? I don't think it does. Rovers have Dermot Desmond putting money into them too don't forget.

If it was a one-off blip, you could overlook it or make a comparison to a cup game, but I think we're consistently underachieving compared to population. You say it's how we should measure ourselves if we had any plan to improve - but how can you say Rovers, Derry, etc don't have a plan to improve? Rovers have developed a major academy. Sligo have a reasonable one too. Derry have a billionaire backer. There's work at all clubs at improving things - promotion, better coaching, etc.

Yes, it needs more from the FAI - but the clubs don't help themselves putting 30k release fee clauses in their top scorer's contract - but you can't say we're not trying to improve, so we should ignore European results.

I didn't cherry-pick results from Flora's campaign btw; I looked at all of them. And this year, they're out of Europe to a Finnish side, while the Estonian champions lost 6-1 in Iceland in the Champions League preliminary round. It's not a good league.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

I still can't agree with that; it's very defeatist.

Does the Estonian league really have more resources pumped into it? I don't think it does. Rovers have Dermot Desmond putting money into them too don't forget.

If it was a one-off blip, you could overlook it or make a comparison to a cup game, but I think we're consistently underachieving compared to population. You say it's how we should measure ourselves if we had any plan to improve - but how can you say Rovers, Derry, etc don't have a plan to improve? Rovers have developed a major academy. Sligo have a reasonable one too. Derry have a billionaire backer. There's work at all clubs at improving things - promotion, better coaching, etc.

Yes, it needs more from the FAI but you can't say we're not trying to improve, so we should ignore European results

I didn't cherry-pick results from Flora's campaign btw; I looked at all of them. And this year, they're out of Europe to a Finnish side, while the Estonian champions lost 6-1 in Iceland in the Champions League preliminary round. It's not a good league.

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I'm not trying to come off as defeatist but I can see why you'd say that. Take the Estonian league out of the equation then. I still hold that the Flora side we played was better than most LoI sides over the past 10 years or so bar the Dundalk side who were an outlier but it doesn't really matter. You still can't use our performance against other leagues around the world as the key measure of our leagues relative standard to itself over time.

We are absolutely underachieving relative to our population but has that changed? Does that tell a story of decline over time or is that just how it's always been?

Maybe we just got a bit spoiled by Rovers and Dundalk getting into the Europa? The Rovers side that did so wouldn't be much better than the current Rovers side. The 2019 Rovers side were better. The Dundalk side were special to be fair but they had nobody in the league competing with them outside of Sean Maguire so the league itself wasn't any stronger then. We were 3rd best and we were awful.

Desmond put his money into the academy so we haven't seen the pay offs from that yet outside of a few transfer fees. Derry's money hasn't done a thing so far. Clubs do have plans to improve but they can only do so much without tv deals, promotion from the FAI etc.

It might have been stronger in the money days alright. But that was a different world altogether.

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Originally Posted by ontheotherhand

I agree with you on what we SHOULD be doing but this is the LoI stu....Benchmarking against organisations that have more resources pumped into them isn't a good way to measure our leagues standard relative to itself year on year. You're talking like the LoI is a business entity competing in a market and it isn't. I'd agree that's how we should measure ourselves if we had any sort of plan to improve the league outside of random individuals getting involved and wanting things to be better at club level rather than league level, but until we are there it doesn't make sense to say "ah we lost to a team from X nation with a population of Y" so we must all be going backwards. Who cares if they are able to spend more money or they catch us on a bad day? Sure Cork has a bigger population than Drogheda and they are in different leagues. If Cork beat Drogs in the cup will it say the First Division as a whole is stronger than the Premier or the Premier division standard has gone down overall?

Flora went on to qualify for the groups and beat Partizan. They lost 1-0 to Gent. You can cherry pick results from their journey there if you like but what happened after is that they competed about as well as a LoI side would hope to.

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It would be a bit like England's ability, potential, ranking being binned based upon losing to Iceland in Euro '16. Ok its a one off type thing but I agree that there isnt a whole lot wrong with trying to gauge the league's standards on European games, especially with leagues ranked around us. We know it isnt the only barometer but is an important one imo as it is used by the media and general public as a guide. Players would often comment on wanting to test themselves on the European stage.

On a positive note for us the tempo and intensity of tonight’s game was the perfect prep for next Thursday. If we bring that we can give Mura a go.

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Originally Posted by ger121

I think teams being in Europe year in year out is a factor. The more they play each year the better it stands to them. Also leads to being seeded and the chance of a better draw. Some of our sides recently have not been regular qualifiers - Derry, Pats, Bohs and Sligo. Again by regular I mean 3-4 years+ in a row. When Rovers, Dundalk, Cork and even Pats back in their run do it, you see some very good results and years with getting into later rounds or even a group stage. As I said, this is just one of many factors, some of which have been well explained in previous posts.

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Agreed. Recent European experience is important. Dundalk and Cork have both dropped back. Dundalk seem to be bouncing back domestically this season.
Sligo lost out to FH last year though. They got through last night obviously but were very lucky.
Ifs, buts and maybes, if Derry had drawn Bala and Sligo had drawn Riga, we might be reflecting on both clubs differently.
In Sligo Rovers previous 7 European ties, they had only gotten through once. Their European form has been well below par for whatever reason.
Cork's European record has been patchy as well when they were in the ascendency. Shamrock Rovers, Dundalk and Pat's have been the most dependable in Europe?