World Ranking

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Er, I didn't suggest that (FIFA's system was unique in that respect). Incidentally aside from Elo, UEFA's does as well.

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You suggested that Elo doesn't weight towards the present, and said FIFA's system was better because of this. But both systems weight towards the present, so your argument is invalid.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Yes, I think the potential for 'huge swings' as you call them is a good thing. I explained why above: teams who are normally mediocre can get a tangible credit for improvement in the next tournament (ie immediate higher seeding); teams who stiff and fail to qualify from first seeding get a tougher group next time.

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But the draw for the World Cup was by necessity made way before the Euro finals, so Wales' huge swing wouldn't have happened by the time of the draw anyway. So you can't say Wales should be higher than Ireland because of a good Euros, and then say the system should be heavily biased towards this to help them get a higher ranking.

You also want a highly reactive rankings list, but then complain that the current system overrates Ireland based on recent form. These two opinions are mutually exclusive. If you only want rankings once a year, that's fine - just ignore all the ones in between and don't be complaining about them. They're not used for anything anyway.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

My preferred system for ranking would be to

a) publish them only once each year (ie immediately after a tournament and at the end of qualifying for the also rans

b) use that from the end of qualifying to seed the next qualifying tournament starting the following year

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This effectively happens now anyway as the intermediate rankings published each month are completely irrelevant. Both Elo and FIFA rankings will do this. (An exception was for the current qualifiers, when the draw was made before the Euro qualifiers were completed - this was daft).

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Originally Posted by Gather round

Fine. We're agreed that FIFA's system is flawed.

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Yup.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

My argument is quite simple- a ranking system should quickly reward recent past achievement. We're agreed that Elo often doesn't and can't do that.

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My point is there's no reason for the rankings to react quite as quickly as you've suggested.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

You haven't put a convincing argument that Elo is self-evidently better suited to football ranking.

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I have - I've refuted your two technical arguments (that Elo ratings include all games going back to the beginning of time, and that they don't weight towards the present like FIFA's system - neither of which are true). I've concluded that this means you don't understand how the system works - which is a logical conclusion. As I've said before, Elo rankings are based on statistical mathematics, which alone means they're slightly better suited to the job than FIFA's rankings.

In particular, FIFA rankings are based on an average score per game, and if you play fewer friendlies (which are scored lower), your average score will increase and you can skew the rankings. Switzerland were top seeds for the 2014 World Cup qualifying because of this, and Romania are top seeds for 2018 for the same reason. In this regard, Elo rankings are far superior, as they're based on trying to evaluate your strength rather than attributing a score per match, and are consequently much harder to manipulate.

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Originally Posted by Gather round

I think I mistakenly quoted you when it should have been John 83 above. Apologies.

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Fair enough. But I don't think John83 particularly cares about Ireland's world ranking either btw. I think in fact most people don't care most of the time.

He's just showing a different - maybe more reliable - ranking system.

Possibly GR´s partial bias against Elo rankings is because...

ELO Uefa ranking
13. FAI 1757
27. IFA 1625

FIFA Uefa ranking

20. IFA 798
21. FAI 774

33rd in latest rankings

Article on football365 on how Wales and Romania beat the rankings system by not playing friendlies: http://www.football365.com/news/how-...ankings-system

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

Article on football365 on how Wales and Romania beat the rankings system by not playing friendlies: http://www.football365.com/news/how-...ankings-system

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Great stuff thanks for sharing.

Meanwhile John Delaney has us playing Oman.

Wales and Romania don't have a stadium to pay off

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

Article on football365 on how Wales and Romania beat the rankings system by not playing friendlies: http://www.football365.com/news/how-...ankings-system

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Yep; I referenced it (the issue, if not the article) in my post further up the page. Switzerland have done it too.

A big plus for Elo ratings over UEFA rankings.

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Originally Posted by tetsujin1979

Wales and Romania don't have a stadium to pay off

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Getting to the World Cup will help the debt more than the Oman Friendly I would have thought.

I hope it turns out more fortunate for us that Wales managed to beat the rankings system and are our group's first seed.

That's what Switzerland have been doing for years.

With the win over Austria - this should boosts us up to the mid 20's I guess?

I saw 23 somewhere this morning, not sure if it was accurate or not.

Yup 23:


http://www.football-rankings.info/20...l-preview.html

Nice one! .... onto Wales in March :)

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Originally Posted by swinfordfc

Nice one! .... onto Wales in March :)

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Yeah, Wales are ranked 11th so a win there would be worth a nice few points I presume?

I see Argentina are fairly comfortable in top spot. Strange considering they're struggling in the South American qualification, winning less than half their matches and only occupying the playoff spot currently. They did reach back to back Copa America finals I suppose as well as the World Cup final, but lost them all.

Finish the year in 23rd, although there was only a few internationals since the last update and few teams changed their rank: http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranki...men/index.html
Wales 11th, Austria 31st, Serbia 44th, Georgia 118th, Moldova 164th

So here we go...

Us'uns at 26... (how apt)
Them'uns at 26 (Spleugh)

http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017/...fifa-rankings/

NB. Them'uns are slightly ahead on 823.23 (vs our 822.62). Both rounded up to 823.

Afternoon all. I'll admit I wasn't making much sense up there re the Elo ranking system.

NI are currently ranked #29 in Europe using it (#51). Given that

a) rankings are claimed to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches, and

b) we've played 26 since September 2014 (19 competitive, 7 friendly)

can we assume that should we make the play-offs there'd be a rise into the top 20?

This website is pretty useful:
http://www.football-rankings.info/

Here is the current standings for the Nations League which will be determined after the World Cup qualifiers are over. (5-7 games)
1 1 Germany 34346
2 3 France 32508
3 4 Portugal 32415
4 2 Belgium 31782
5 5 Spain 30990
6 6 England 30891
7 8 Italy 30346
8 9 Switzerland 30006
9 7 Russia 29258
10 10 Croatia 28319
11 11 Poland 28022
12 12 Iceland 26215
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13 14 Austria 26198
14 19 Bosnia and Herzegovina 25340
15 15 Wales 25209
16 17 Republic of Ireland 25009
17 13 Netherlands 24925
18 20 Slovakia 24894
19 21 Sweden 24686
20 16 Ukraine 24666
21 23 Czech Republic 24167
22 18 Hungary 24126
23 24 Turkey 23758
24 26 Northern Ireland 23467

And based on simulations, how likely we are we qualify for the World Cup (64.65%)

AFC: Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Australia, Saudi Arabia

CAF: Egypt, Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Congo DR, Senegal

CONCACAF: Mexico, Costa Rica, USA

CONMEBOL: Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Uruguay, Argentina

UEFA: Germany, Poland, France, England, Spain, Switzerland, Belgium, Croatia, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Serbia, Iceland



These would be the seeds: Russia, Brazil, Germany, Argentina, Poland, Chile, Portugal, Colombia.

Earlier it was mentioned that Romania didn't play friendlies in order to boost their first pot seeding potential in the WC qual draw. I see the main benefit of that ruse has fallen to Poland who are cruising at the top after beating the (false) first seeds 3 nil :)

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Originally Posted by joe_denilson

This website is pretty useful:
http://www.football-rankings.info/

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This web site describes in more detail and in as simple way as possible, where a country stands in the Uefa national rankings and how it got there, use of shades and different font colours is a bonus.

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Originally Posted by geysir

Earlier it was mentioned that Romania didn't play friendlies in order to boost their first pot seeding potential in the WC qual draw. I see the main benefit of that ruse has fallen to Poland who are cruising at the top after beating the (false) first seeds 3 nil :)

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joe_denilson said the following after our recent loss against Iceland:

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Originally Posted by joe_denilson

Should have used a 7th sub for ranking reasons

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Would having used a seventh sub, beyond the six we actually used, have nullified the loss, as far as ranking points were concerned?

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

joe_denilson said the following after our recent loss against Iceland:



Would having used a seventh sub, beyond the six we actually used, have nullified the loss, as far as ranking points were concerned?

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Subs are agreed before the match - the fourth official would have just said no.

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Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin

Subs are agreed before the match - the fourth official would have just said no.

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You mean the fourth official would have refused us permission to use a seventh sub against Iceland if we'd requested such permission? So can the teams agree before the game to limit themselves to, say, three subs or seven subs - whatever their mutual preference may be - and the fixture would still count towards both teams' ranking either way?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-soc...0EF18T20140604

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FIFA's rules limit the number of substitutes allowed in a competitive match to three - and six for friendlies.
Belgium made seven changes during the match, in which Nacer Chadli and Kevin De Bruyne also scored for them and Aurelien Joachim for Luxembourg.
FIFA said in an email that it would not recognise the game as an "A" match.

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Maybe the 4th official could have stopped it but worth a try.

However,
Spain tried something similiar
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/25138160

But Fifa ratified the game because Spain lost, so they likely would have ratified our Iceland loss also.

Man up Danny, Ireland were shamed and given a football lesson in their own back yard by a tiny populated arctic island. Just take the beating, the null ranking points and move on :)
As it turned out, Iceland got more ranking points from beating poncy Ireland in a friendly than they did for beating a grit laden Kosovo away in a WC qual, in a duel to the death in Albania (xxx more scary than Transylvania after sunset).

I think if either side gave a football lesson that day then it's one everyone in attendance would be better off forgetting. One of the worst games I've seen, and I've seen us play a lot.

In June 1st rankings - Ireland will hold 26th placed by themselves with Northern Ireland slipping to 28th! Don't know why the reason though! Does Ireland v Mexico match have any bearing on these rankings in June 1st?

Will the Fifa ranking position play a part in the seeding for the WC play off draw? It could be interpreted that the top 4 seeded teams will be decided on position in the runner-up table.
WCQ Uefa round 2

The ranking position won't matter at all when it comes to the draw for the group stages of the world cup, for those teams outside the top 7.

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Originally Posted by geysir

Will the Fifa ranking position play a part in the seeding for the WC play off draw? It could be interpreted that the top 4 seeded teams will be decided on position in the runner-up table.
WCQ Uefa round 2

The ranking position won't matter at all when it comes to the draw for the group stages of the world cup, for those teams outside the top 7.

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they haven't even said whether or not the playoff draw will be seeded (have they?) but it has been in the past. it was fifa ranking that was used for 2014 though so one would expect similar.

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Originally Posted by zero

they haven't even said whether or not the playoff draw will be seeded (have they?) but it has been in the past. it was fifa ranking that was used for 2014 though so one would expect similar.

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They didn't divulge the play off seeding criteria in the WC 2018 competition regulations but I see they didn't divulge this either in the 2014 competition regulations. It's most probably as you say, seeding by Fifa rank is the (secret) default.

What's the latest on this?

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Originally Posted by swinfordfc

What's the latest on this?

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We've taken over the world.

Likely to be ranked 29th

Selected Others:
England 13th
Wales 20th
Northern Ireland 22nd
Scotland 60th

Austria 38th
Serbia 43rd
Georgia 113th
Moldova 158th

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Originally Posted by joe_denilson

Likely to be ranked 29th

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Yup, we're down three places to 29th despite the draw against Austria and victory over Uruguay: https://www.balls.ie/football/fifa-w...ly-2017-368386

Holland are now in 32nd, which is their joint-worst ever ranking. Peru are a surprise in 14th.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Yup, we're down three places to 29th despite the draw against Austria and victory over Uruguay: https://www.balls.ie/football/fifa-w...ly-2017-368386

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If you click on Ireland in the Fifa rankings list, you'll not only see the ranking points gained but also the ones that fall off the radar and Ireland had two good wins fall off, reducing the effect of the recent win and a draw.

What's clear is that we need to win the group or I fear we will lose the play off, judging by the list of top seeded teams who may come second in their respective groups

http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...-35901614.html

We relied to much here on drawing games - like drawing against Austria was poor and it will cost us later this year! ... Cant afford to that in these competitions!

We took four points off Austria, the top seed in the group when the draw was made. I doubt that'll be what ends up costing us. After the first match in Belgrade people were saying those "two points dropped" will cost us later on. Anybody would think we're the only team dropping points in the group. We're in a position we could only have dreamt about really. Any kind of an ugly win in Georgia will set us up for a home match that could all but guarantee top spot.

I'm as frustrated as the next man at some of the conservative tactics and team selections, but we're exactly where we would have wanted to be. It's only results from here on that can't really damage us I think.