My mistake, I thought it would just come down to overall goal difference if more than 2 teams were tied. That changes things drastically and it makes tonight's result all the more disappointing. Under those circumstances a draw probably isn't going to be good enough as I could easily see Russia & Slovakia settling for a draw which would put our hopes down to Armenia or Macedonia doing us a favor.
I'm trying to think would there be much extra worth from a draw than a loss in Moscow anyway... Maybe a draw would be just as worthless to us as a loss, save in the scenario where Russia might lose to Slovakia. I'm not sure though; I'd need a better think to make sure I'm covering all scenarios or for someone to make out some sort of permutations graph/matrix compiling all the different possible results from all remaining games involving ourselves, Russia and Slovakia and possible final standings as a result of those. I actually think something like that would be worth compiling and sending off to the FAI just so they know exactly where we stand and the possible permutations of different results in Moscow. If a draw is as worthless to us as a loss in most scenarios, then would that affect our approach? I'm not necessarily saying it is, or that it would or definitely should even if it is, but it's something worth thinking about. I suppose it's a matter of having the courage to way up risks and being prepared to retain control over our own destiny.
On second thoughts, I might be underestimating the magnitude of such an undertaking. Or maybe I'm just complicating matters and overplaying the need to know the likelihood of all possible scenarios, ha. Am I correct in thinking that there are 343 different possible scenarios as regards final points tallies between ourselves, Russia and Slovakia? And that's not taking goals scored into account (although that isn't as crucial). Obviously, the outcome of some scenarios would be far more likely than others, but there are seven fixtures remaining in the group containing at least one of the three aforementioned teams with each of those fixtures independently having the chance of ending with one of three outcomes; a home win, an away win or a draw. Am I right in thinking then that the total number of possible outcomes for all seven games is found by multiplying 7^3. That would total 343. It seems like an awful lot. Is it right? :confused:
Back in maths class, this is exactly the sort of thing that would have been met with the sigh, "Awk, when will this crap ever be of use to me?!", but maybe it could now come in useful to working out Ireland's best possible approach to a qualifying game in Moscow for Euro 2012. Good Lord.
McGeady saying he wasn't match sharp and that tuesday is a must win. Also echoes Spudulika's thoughts on Russia. They're beatable.
let's not be too premature in writing our team off , a win in russia changes everything. with 4 points from these games we would be in the driving seat. we were very poor last night, i felt we were a team with no purpose , there was no gameplan, it was just give out 11 jerseys stand in a 442 and hope for the best. but i also watched a bit of the russian game yday, macedonia had them in trouble a lot of times and from what i saw they were very lucky to come out with the win. this game on tuesday is a game we can win. arguably our team is set up better to perform in an away game in moscow as underdogs than as favourites against roughly equal opposition at home.
Given 6 - got away with the throwout. otherwise ok
O'shea 5 - poor distribution from long balls but with nobody showin short had no other options, defensively ok. not a leader
Dunne 7 - richard dunne
St. ledger 8 - likeable honest performance from a likable honest player. will be missed in russia
Ward 6 - like o'shea but seemed to want to play ball more, he however looked nervous to me.*
Duff 7 - lively enough , great ball in for keane, not his worst game still our best player at least he wanted the ball
Andrews 4 - i like andrews but can't think of anything good to write about that performance, did nothing a centre mid should
Whelan 4 - brutal same as andrews, i know is injured now but would have fahey instead every game when fit
Mcgeady 5 - tried but clearly unfit, why so long till hunt?
Doyle 5 - bad game for kevin, second to everything , dunno if he was fit but hopefully he won't be that bad again, no wonder long was first choice
Keane 6 - you have to score those headers , wasn't involved much but a few nice touches
*(foley also has looked nervous when he has played and the likely pairing of the 2 of them at fullback cacking themselves in moscow could be a problem, and o'shea has been muck at cb. hopefully dunne can guide him through)
overall we were a shambles , wasted oppurtunity, didn't look like a team , no purpose etc.
however with a win on tues all will be forgiven, in trap we trust
If we win on Tuesday (and it's not impossible), then only through slipping up away against Andorra or home against Armenia can we prevent ourselves from winning the group.
It has suddenly dawned on me that even though last night's performance and result was extremely disappointing, that the Russian game now is even more important in terms of what a win would mean.
We're going to Russia with 6 consecutive clean sheets, and a point to prove after the 3-2 defeat last year. Hopefully Long will be fit and hopefully we can be more dangerous on the wings. BELIEVE!
If we win in russia then all is right with the world, we will be owners of our destiny. Plus under trap I have had more confidence in the team away from home than at home. Our best performances have all been away from home, paris, bari etc.
However, now comes to realist. Its going to be extremely difficult to win away and its not like we have a great record at winning these big games away. But there is no question that a draw will be much better than a loss. Slovakia have the tougher closing games and it certainly is no guarantee that they will take full points of macedonia and armenia,the latter are still very much in the qualification mix. Two draws on tuesday night would be almost as good as two wins. Take the scenario that going into the final game, we are on 18, with both russia and slovakia on 20, I don't accept that either team would play for the draw there, particularly slovakia because one they are at home and second a draw would not get them automatic qualification.
Since when do we beat anyone with any sort of ability home or away? We have two options drawing or losing unless they do something miraculous and do something no Irish team has done in about 10 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by boovidge
Thanks Cymro, its always good to get an outside perspective. Trap has done a lot of good that is no doubt, we are strong defensively and not easily beaten. However, with trap defence is the master above all else. There is very little creativity, midfield is treated as an additional line of defense most of the time rather than a platform to attack. His tactics by and large seem to work reall well away from home. However, at home when the opposition usually sits back, we are inept at breaking them down with our defensive systeem. Slovakia set out their stall 2n and well by and large we couldn't do much about it. In fact as the game grew on, they realised we weren't going to change our defensive style and took control of the games themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cymro
Don't get me wrong, we are happy with a lot that trap has done. But its all about making the next step and qualifying. You need to win these home games to do that. In a way, we looked more likely to win these big games at home under stan than trap.
Congrats on a great result last night, from the highlights ye looked good and seemed to have most of ye're big players available for a change. Montenegro are a decent team. With beating monty and all the suspensions ye have for next week, looks like ye have inadvertently handed england qualification.
Sure but I didn't give a free pass to any player, including Givens for some of his awful kick outs and St Ledger for poor distribution.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin
But IŽd have to say Ward should get more leeway from criticism and Duff was about the only player who performed to expectations.
Refreshingly honest comments from McGeady in the paper this morning about his own performance,
"I felt frustrated. Not in terms of how the team is set up, but in terms of how I played myself," he said.
"I've not really played, I didn't feel match sharp. Everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong for me. That's just the way I felt tonight. I was probably thrown in at the deep end, but I'm never going to say 'no' to a starting place.
"It's another 90 minutes under my belt, because I haven't really played in three months."
Dare I say this but in normal time we beat france awayQuote:
Originally Posted by Murfinator
Why do we lump the ball so much? We are chronically glued to this method, especially when chasing a game.
It's primitive in the extreme. Fair enough to use it on occasion especially when we had a player like Cas and Quinn. But we use it repeatedly. Even if it's the last attack in injury time, a well set up team moves forward, keeping possession with the ball on the ground.
Presumably because there is no midfield to pass it toQuote:
Originally Posted by geysir
I dunno... Where to begin?? Most has already been posted!! Dunno why Mcgeady and Duff didnt switch flanks from time to time either...
'Normal' time doesn't count. That match ended 1-1. Ireland have NEVER beaten a major European team (England, Spain, Germany, France, Russia etc.) in a competitive match away from home.Quote:
Originally Posted by elroy
Just back from Dublin.
Absolutely brutal. I though I had seen the nadir of Irish central midfield performances, but last night was just the worst. Our full backs offered the team nothing going forward. We played that game with only 4 players prepared to try anything, joined occasionally by a game butr ineffective Andrews.
The annoying thing is that we can be that rubbish and still squander gilt-edged chances to win.
Why was Hunt kept off for so long?
Robbie just has to take those chances. F***ing dreadful.
We're lacking the very basics wrt team cohesion.
Actually a draw is not so bad for our play off chances but the performance in getting it was dire.
We had two chances to put Slovakia to the sword and fluffed them both. We could be nearly home and dry.
I think we need a draw to stay marginal favourites for second. Otherwise we're toast. We should look to win it though.
We'll miss Sledge, our best player yesterday.
The loss of St Ledger is a huge blow.
What is the point of Whelan and Andrews in that starting 11? If it's to sit and protect the back 4 then they fail miserably. The game just passes them by and those performances last night were not a one off. Heartbreaking to see a central midfield that bad.
The next most frustrating thing is the obsession with lumping balls to Keane, McGeady and Duff. Small players who are not renowned for their target man abilities. If I was manager then I'd impose a ban in training/practice games on any players going long. Do these players not realise we are just giving the opposition the ball back and putting ourselves under pressure?
McGeady should have been hauled off at HT. He was rusty but that still doesn't excuse not being able to hit a man in a green shirt from 8 yards.
I really don't know where we go from here. The Trap isn't one for making drastic changes but the team looked flat, leaderless and clueless.