Financial Crisis

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Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

But I'm not sure the unions can adopt a holier than thou approach, given the FAS debacle shows that when they are in a position of power they get distracted by having their snouts in the trough.

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I wouldn't necessarily totally disagree, but then imo social partnership was all about weakening the Trade Union movement. However, I think it's overstated - there's one or two that pop up all over the place as Government appointees.

Off topic, but imo there's definitely a campaign this week to paint the Unions as the bad guy - RTE on Morning Ireland straight on Government message* first thing on Monday with George Lee's rant. I definitely think last week the Government was hiding behing Anglo without naming names, this week it's point at the Unions for what they've done. Just once it's not on them. Shamefully, most of the media and the right wing nut jobs in FG just can't resist.

*If you notice the attitude to Labour politicians after the Irish Times poll as further evidence. They could've been reading Government scrips the way they went after any Labour contributors that week.
*Also, RTE are one of the state bodies exempt from the Pension Levy. They wouldn't want to get the state journalists offside would they?

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Originally Posted by Macy

I've said it many times, the banks know where too many FF bodies are buried (see their less than full disclosures to the tribunals). Anglo is an exaggerated case in point, because it also financed their builder buddies...

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Surely you are not suggesting the delay was to give them time to reove the evidence?

I firmly believe we now need a General Election. All sides can have a full & frank debate & the people will have their say. It is now the Greens turen but I suppose they need a smoking gun of sorts...

I remember reading an article a few back saying that when banks collapsed in the past (e.g. the US) the bankers raided the safe for IOUs of big customers.These could be "exchanged" at a late date.

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Originally Posted by pete

I firmly believe we now need a General Election. All sides can have a full & frank debate & the people will have their say. It is now the Greens turen but I suppose they need a smoking gun of sorts...

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No doubt. The people must be allowed to decide the approach that is taken.

And the results will indicate whether they want a unity government (as opposed to the suggestion of one without an election to allow FF/ Greens to hide in the long grass while rough decisions are made).

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Originally Posted by pete

I firmly believe we now need a General Election. All sides can have a full & frank debate & the people will have their say. It is now the Greens turen but I suppose they need a smoking gun of sorts...

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Even if the Greens walked, I think FF would have enough independents on board to have the 83 seats.

I don't think there should be a GE for two reasons.

I don't think FG or Labour or anyone for that matter has any ideas on how to change things around. I doubt anybody really knows what to do about the economic downturn. It's all unchartered water for everyone.

In the 80's there were loads of elections and every time the Gov failed to turn things around, the people voted the opposition in and they struggled as well. If FF go now, FG will come in and they mightn't know what to do and then the people will want FF back in.

I despise FF so I think the longer they stew in this mess and the more their incompetence is to be seen, the more support they'll lose. The more damage FF do for themselves over the next few years, the better.

FF have a plan: Tax, tax, tax, and tax again.

Be it pension taxes, income taxes, airport taxes, car parking taxes, hospital taxes to every single person right across the country, regardless of income. You name it, they've taxed it.

When FG and Labour were last in power, they left office in a healthy state financially, in an export led economy. FF on the other hand decided to bank the state of the economy on the construction industry, and it's associated revenues. Now it's collapsed, everyone has to pay the bill.

Next week, the unemployment figures will reach 350,000 people. Apparantly, the FF priority is to create jobs. How are they creating them? By imposing income taxes on almost every single worker in the country, making it impossible for employers to create jobs, and there are no jobs being created. In the public sector, they announced a public sector recruitment and pay freeze. Then when they finished doing that, they introduced the pension tax on every worker in the public sector. Result: Protests, sit-ins, job losses, industrial disputes.

Everyone has to take the pain. The dole queue people have to live on €200 a week, 10k a year. It covers all personal expenditure, regardless of status. Whether a schoolleaver or a mortgage holder, it's €200 a week. If fortunate to have a job, you're punished for that in the income tax legislation, on top of the standard tax you're already paying. Meanwhile banks are bailed out and nationalised at every turn. Directors and CEO's resign with golden handshakes, while law abiding citizens get the fingers from this government.

There is talk of a national government being suggested. For the sake of democracy and accountability, I resolutely oppose such a proposal. Those in government must be held accountable to Leinster House and this electorate for their actions.

FF have decided to recover the country by taxing everyone in some form. That is not going to stimulate our economy, nor create jobs. Less jobs, means less revenue for the government, and less money spent by the public. Other countries have decided to stimulate their economies by offering tax breaks, and spending programmes. The government hope the economy will continue to stagnate, as they can use it as a selling point to get their precious Treaty passed, that we the people, have already overwhelmingly rejected.

The protest and knock-on effects will not prevent the pension levy bill being passed in the Dail on Thursday. The government don't care about the wishes of the people, they care about votes. As we saw last summer, the only time politicians get upset is when they lose at the ballot box, and FF will continue to wreck the economy until such time as an election is called. Frankly, the Greens are too timid to call FF's bluff, and I can't see an election being called until the current Dail term ends in 3 years time. More misery and hardship for more people on the way.

You're getting it the wrong way round. The problem isn't that FF are going to have to raise taxes, it's that they eroded the tax base so much by relying on consumption taxes rather than income taxes. Taxes will go up whoever wins the election - there's no room for stimulus packages through tax breaks because the tax base is so narrow.

An election would force everyone to produce their 3, 4, 5 year plans for the economy. Most of the problem now is the absence of a plan or a strategy, and a total lack of leadership. People can then decide between the alternatives and take some responsibility for the actions of the Government. I want to see FF die a slow horrible death, but enough is enough - they have to put national interest ahead of their party interest of trying to sit it out in the hope of an improvement.

Meanwhile, in what seems like a parallel universe, Mary Harney has just given hospital consultants huge payrises backdated to January:

Harney agrees pay increase for consultants

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"Under the new contract some consultants will see their salaries rise by between €50,000 and €60,000."

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Originally Posted by mypost

Even if the Greens walked, I think FF would have enough independents on board to have the 83 seats.

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Not anymore. Finian McGrath is no longer on board, Joe Behan has left FF, Seamus Brennan has died, whilst Beverley Flynn re-joined the party. I think Jim McDaid temporarily lost the whip too, but he could be relied upon.
Tony Gregory has also died.

The current state of the parties is:
FF 78 - Behan - Brennan + Flynn = 77 - Ceann Comhairle who has not got a vote = 76
Green 6
PD 2
FF-supporting Inds 4 - 2 (McGrath, Flynn) = 2
Total 86

FG 51
Labour 20
SF 4
Non-aligned independents 2 (McGrath, Behan (who would probably support FF)
Total 77

So if the Greens jumped the government vote would be 80 and the opposition vote would be 83 (or possibly 81 govt and 82 opp depending on what way Behan voted). And there are 2 by-elections to come.

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Originally Posted by monutdfc

Not anymore. Finian McGrath is no longer on board, Joe Behan has left FF, Seamus Brennan has died, whilst Beverley Flynn re-joined the party. I think Jim McDaid temporarily lost the whip too, but he could be relied upon.
Tony Gregory has also died.

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Behan has voted with the Government on everything bar the medical card issue. It was nothing but a stunt by him (he wouldn't want to be upsetting all the developers he took donations from).

However, you are right - the greens pulling out would effectively bring down the Government. Regardless of the numbers, I don't think they could pull it off nationally, and Healy Rae and Lowry would hardly prop them up under the pressure that'd result would they? The Greens will sit it out until june though, to make sure they get their ministerial pensions - they're loving Planet Bertie.

Anyone hear Mary Coughlan on RTE this morning? She said " I think it's important to say" or "I think it is important to state" at least 11 times in a ten minute piece. PR Bull that the public is getting sick of.

I subcribe to the view of this being a national emergency, we need to put people in place who can at least stop the rot before digging us out of this hole. A General election will not help the issue as it is too acute now, but we need that shower out.......fast.

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Originally Posted by Fr Damo

A General election will not help the issue as it is too acute now, but we need that shower out.......fast.

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The only way to get them out is a General Election. We could be voting in 3 weeks, Saturday 3 weeks we'd have the results and a new Government - I doubt the Government will have done anything significant in that time anyway, judging by their inaction since the crap hit the fan.

My understanding is that in a recession you would normally increase public spending or offer tax breaks. Unfortunately the massive hole in our Finances means can't use the normal approach.

A General Election would allow all parties to propose their economic plans & we can decide which one we want. At least afterwards the government would have the backing of the majority & the bickering might take a break.

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Originally Posted by pete

At least afterwards the government would have the backing of the majority & the bickering might take a break.

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They'd have a mandate to carry out what they were elected on.

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Originally Posted by Macy

The only way to get them out is a General Election. We could be voting in 3 weeks, Saturday 3 weeks we'd have the results and a new Government - I doubt the Government will have done anything significant in that time anyway, judging by their inaction since the crap hit the fan.

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But is that not the day Begg wants us out Marching?? Joking aside, three weeks more of this and you could be looking at a situation where the deposits being withdrawn from the bank at a rate of ten billon in the last week, the same week 7 billon was depostited by Biffo. No one will touch us now never mind in three weeks, who in the right mind would buy a bond in an Irish Bank while this lot and the bankers are in situ. This is getting worse by the day.

Friend of mine sent me this, a bit simplistic but it explains the situation well to the likes of me: http://vimeo.com/3261363

Who do we believe? :confused:

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Addressing the Joint Committee on Finance and the Public Service in Dublin today Mr Lenihan also said Irish banks can withstand their losses and have adequate reserves following the Government's recapitalisation plan which see €3.5 billion of capital injected into AIB and Bank of Ireland.

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Citigroup has suggested that the State’s two largest banks Bank of Ireland and AIB are likely to require a combined total of almost €3 billion in extra capital due to the size of their impaired loans.

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Traffic is very definitely lighter in Cork since the start of the year, both myself and the wife have noticed it and we generally travel at completely different times of the day.

adam

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According to RTÉ radio, which did not cite sources, a consortium of Irish and foreign investors have been in discussions with Government and the National Treasury Management Agency about taking a majority stake in Anglo and by investing €5 billion.

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Given how bad the state finances it may be difficult to turn down any reasonable offer. I suppose not a bad deal if have 5 billion lying around with government guarantee & recapitalisation. I think 5 billion would buy a large part of Anglo?

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Originally Posted by pete

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Given how bad the state finances it may be difficult to turn down any reasonable offer. I suppose not a bad deal if have 5 billion lying around with government guarantee & recapitalisation. I think 5 billion would buy a large part of Anglo?

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Pete, I think you're right that the state of Govt finances will dictate whether it's accepted.

Anglo as a lending institution is done. It's brand is irretrievable. The only potential value left in the business is working through the loans, one by one, and working out the bad ones over a period of many years (seizing collateral etc.). Obviously to make a profit at this, the consortium must value the loanbook higher than the Government.

So whilst Anglo is finished to new business, there certainly is a value to the run-off business.