Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jicked

Even if we can't win the group, the play-offs are looking much less daunting then last time with most of the top seeds cruising.

At the moment the teams look like being:

Belgium or Turkey
Slovenia or Serbia
Belarus, Romania, Bosnia or Albania
Sweden
Croatia or Greece or Israel
England or Montenegro
Czech Republic

And remember the best placed of all those qualifies automatically. Currently that would be England/Macedonia's group, but we're right up there. In fact if we beat Slovakia, drew and drew with Russia I'd think even if we ended finishing second we might be the best runner up.

---

Even more headwrecking is that the playoffs are (quite unfairly) seeded by co-efficient and, lets face it, that's where we are headed as we always seem to end up there. As things stand we are on the borderline but we may well end up as a seeded team in the playoffs and would avoid the likes of Sweden, Denmark and the Czechs with Slovenia, Montenegro and Romania being more likely opponents. The co-efficients would affect out seeding in the finals also if we were to qualify, but we would probably end up as bottom seeds in the finals if we get there.

Last 4 games of the top 3 teams:

Ireland: Slovakia (h) Russia (a) Andorra (a) Armenia (h)
Slovakia: Ireland (a) Armenia (h) Russia (h) Macedonia (a)
Russia: Macedonia (h) Ireland (h) Slovakia (a) Andorra (a)

The very fact that Slovakia will not be facing Andorra places both ourselves and Russia at an immediate advantage. We should pick up 6 points period in our last two games. I'd also expect a home victory against what is a very poor Slovakia side. Then anything can happen in Moscow.
Slovakia have a tricky run in with no gimmes. I'd expect us to definitely finish ahead of Slovakia. But as Johnny Giles says predicting results from fixture lists can be notoriously inaccurate. Still though I fancy our chances of topping the group at this stage.

I think its second place all the way looking at the fixtures, even a draw at home to Slovakia might do for that as they look like a team itching to drop points against Armenia and Macedonia. If we beat the Slovaks (and we should be going all out to, because they're not great), we're pretty much guaranteed at least second but even 10 more points might not be enough to top the group so its going to be a big ask.

10 points should top the group.

Slovakia at home is almost like a Cup final. HUGE game.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by geysir

"We" can't separate you from your pessimism, it is your permanent bedfellow.

---

Except I'm a realist. What's your excuse??
;)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by shakermaker1982

Slovakia at home is almost like a Cup final. HUGE game.

---

I'm not sure I can wait. Or to be disappointed in the play-offs instead?
Anyone want a ticket....

I have mine. Poxy summer getting in the way!

Games remaining witg predicted points;

Rep of Ireland: Slovakia (h) (3pts) Russia (a) (0pts) Andorra (a) (3pts) Armenia (h) (3pts) Total P10 Pts22

Slovakia: Ireland (a) (0pts) Armenia (h) (3pts) Russia (h) (1pt) Macedonia (a) (1pt) Total 18pts

Russia: Macedonia (h) (3pts) Ireland (h) (3pts) Slovakia (a) (1pt) Andorra (a) (3pts) Total 23pts

Can see us beat slovakia at home and take six of the minnows. Moscow will be just too tough we'll lose out there.
Reckon slovakia and russia will play out draw and macedonia will take a point from their home game with Slovakia.
We should make the play-off at least.

If we manage a draw in moscow then we should win the group, assuming we beat slovakia home.

All to play for.

I just can't see us taking anything in Moscow. That stat about Russia only losing 3 competitive matches at home since WWII puts the enormity of the task in perspective.

In order to even get a playoff in this group we are going to have to do something we have only done once in ten years, and that is beat a side ranked higher than us in the group.

Guess who the only higher seeded team we have beaten since Holland 2001 is?

Slovakia. Lets hope we can repeat that result.

The Russians will be confident they can take us. A few teams have come to Dublin, like France, and Bulgaria, played well and thought the home game was all sewn up.
If we are on our 'away game', a draw is not unrealistic.

Not to tempt fate but we haven't lost an away game in almost 4 years.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by French Toasht

I just can't see us taking anything in Moscow. That stat about Russia only losing 3 competitive matches at home since WWII puts the enormity of the task in perspective.

---

One of those was recently against...Slovakia.

Point taken in general though.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by French Toasht

I just can't see us taking anything in Moscow. That stat about Russia only losing 3 competitive matches at home since WWII puts the enormity of the task in perspective.

---

A draw is all we need in Moscow to top the group, assuming we take nine points from the other games. The chances of taking nine from nine in those other three would be very favourable, I feel. Andorra away is a certain three. Armenia in Dublin on the last day will have little to play for. The wind will have been taken out of their sales. And I'd fancy us at home against them regardless, even if they were going to go all out for a victory. Slovakia at home is obviously the crucial one, but Slovakia have been a bit inconsistent and, again, we have the home factor in our favour.

More realistically, we should be looking at how many games Russia have drawn at home since World War II and taking some confidence from that. I'd imagine they've drawn plenty more games at home in all that time than a mere three.

By the way, attempting to work out all the possible scenarios, I don't know whether I love or hate this stage of the group.

Yes, I'll be pinning my hopes on those back-to-back draws in Moscow in 1953.

I think a better omen is that we'll be playing against a Dutch manager. We have a great record against Dutch managers in September in a year beginning with a 2 and ending in a 1. :) It'll be 10 years very nearly to the day. That it's been 10 years isn't a great stat though.

I think Trap may well have the savvy to get the better of Advocaat, who won the first round.

Sure Danny its pointless speculating at this stage seeing as you already jinxed it with the 'all of us finish on 22 points but we come third' scenario. Its not that mad a scenario either.

I wish you never said it!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

A draw is all we need in Moscow to top the group, assuming we take nine points from the other games.

---

I disagree. I really think the Russians will have the bit between their teeth now, and assuming like you say we take one point in Moscow (which I just can't see in light of the way they ripped us to shreds in Dublin, the hostile atmosphere and the fact that they are the only team in the group with very technically gifted players, capable of cutting open our rigid catenaccio style), you must be assuming that Russia will drop points in one of their 3 remaining games. Andorra and Macedonia, I just can't see it and I think they will beat Slovakia in Bratislava. That would leave us both on level points and their head to head being better meaning they'd top the group.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by French Toasht

I disagree. I really think the Russians will have the bit between their teeth now, and assuming like you say we take one point in Moscow (which I just can't see in light of the way they ripped us to shreds in Dublin, the hostile atmosphere and the fact that they are the only team in the group with very technically gifted players, capable of cutting open our rigid catenaccio style), you must be assuming that Russia will drop points in one of their 3 remaining games. Andorra and Macedonia, I just can't see it and I think they will beat Slovakia in Bratislava. That would leave us both on level points and their head to head being better meaning they'd top the group.

---

Sorry, you're right. If we were to draw in Russia and they were to win their other three games as well as us, we'd finish second. I think I had Little Hobo's analysis in mind and maybe overlooked or took it for granted the suggestion they'd drop two points away to Slovakia.

If we were to draw in Russia, however, our chances of taking the automatic runner-up spot with 17 points in total would be pretty high. That's not something I'd considered earlier, mind.

Edit: 17 points in total after results against Andorra would have been discounted to rank the second-placed teams throughout the groups, I mean. Goal difference would also come into play if such a scenario were to arise.

The best second-placed team during UEFA qualification for the World Cup managed 16 points: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_FI...d-placed_teams

Well Danny, I'm very glad you have stepped forward to work out our chances of qualifying as the best runner up with 16 or 17 points.
You must have missed the invitation on page 42. We need somebody smart.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BonnieShels

McDonnell complains that Trap doesn't go to enough games in England.

---

If Trap did go to more games in England, who else might he have checked out that might feature in the squad? I can only think of Hoolahan. Trap could have gone to a hundred games this season (all competitions) and not seen anything worthwhile in, say, Andy Reid or Stephen Ireland. He knows Noel Hunt who can consider himself a little unlucky. Jay Tabb rarely features and was in a Trap squad anyway, as was McPhail. Paddy McCarthy perhaps.

Ian Harte he has made a judgment on. Wembley may well have proved him right.

Pretty much everyone I can think of in contention for a place has been given a run out, or has been called up.

So we really want Montenegro to start effing up?

10 points from our next 4 games is very doable. So is 7 though!

I think Montenegro already did, drawing with Bulgaria on Saturday. They'll need to get at least 4 points from England at home and Switzerland away to qualify automatically.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

If Trap did go to more games in England, who else might he have checked out that might feature in the squad? I can only think of Hoolahan. Trap could have gone to a hundred games this season (all competitions) and not seen anything worthwhile in, say, Andy Reid or Stephen Ireland. He knows Noel Hunt who can consider himself a little unlucky. Jay Tabb rarely features and was in a Trap squad anyway, as was McPhail. Paddy McCarthy perhaps.

Ian Harte he has made a judgment on. Wembley may well have proved him right.

Pretty much everyone I can think of in contention for a place has been given a run out, or has been called up.

---

That's my point. He was complaining that he doesn't go to enough games in England. But really what the hell more could he possibly see or know that he already doesn't. As I said it before in the recent past... I think the old b*stardo knows what he's up to.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

So we really want Montenegro to start effing up?

10 points from our next 4 games is very doable. So is 7 though!

---

As is 6. :(

I think we'll get our ten. Though I think we really should be aiming for 12. I like being unrealistic and greedy.
Now, whereas we need Montenegro to start fupping up I think I enjoy it more when the Tans are all over the shop. It makes SSN much more interesting. The fatigue issue is only the funniest excuse I have ever seen at the end of a long hard season. Maybe just maybe ye're shoite!

Two more things though:
1. we need to stop thinking that the game v Russia was all about them being magnificent. It had a lot more to do with us being beyond crap for the first hour-ish. And the fact that poor Paul Green had to man the midfield on his own after Whelan went missing. If we had've gotten up Russia earlier on in the game then we would have at least gotten a point out of that game. Never mind. I'll settle for 3 in Russia and a Paris-like performance.

2. This multi-quote jobby is only mighty.

I have to live with the fact that I learned how to do that multi quote thing, from Stutts.

Quote:

---

And the fact that poor Paul Green had to man the midfield on his own after Whelan went missing.

---

Well I am glad this has been pointed out. Green got dogs abuse for that game, but Whelan was the experienced midfielder and he was simply brutal all game.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by geysir

I have to live with the fact that I learned how to do that multi quote thing, from Stutts.

---

Me too! :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by carloz

Well I am glad this has been pointed out. Green got dogs abuse for that game, but Whelan was the experienced midfielder and he was simply brutal all game.

---

It has been said here since. It doesn't excuse his obvious limitations but that night had nothing to do with him.

Also didn't Lawro pick up an injury in that game which fupped him up for the rest of the game.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by geysir

I have to live with the fact that I learned how to do that multi quote thing, from Stutts.

---

The shame. And I only learnt how to do it a week ago. Still you taught me how to do the link overwrite thingy.

This summer I am making it my mission to learn to type with more than just the index finger of my right hand.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

The shame. And I only learnt how to do it a week ago. Still you taught me how to do the link overwrite thingy.

---

2 Students with one admission. I always wondered what the multi-quote symbol was actually for.

I used to see others doing it, and I saw the button, but through trial and error couldn't figure it out. I even tried the foot.ie instructions page and couldn't figure it. So I googled it. That didn't work either. So then I did it by accident one day.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

I used to see others doing it, and I saw the button, but through trial and error couldn't figure it out. I even tried the foot.ie instructions page and couldn't figure it. So I googled it. That didn't work either. So then I did it by accident one day.

---

So trial and error didn't work and neither did the instructions...

And women wonder why we never look at instructions and ask for directions?

Nah, a woman wouldn't find the instructions helpful either. This is what it says in the Support section:

If you want to post replies to multiple posts you can select them by clicking the multi quote button . This button will change to indicate that you've selected it. Clicking post reply will then bring you to the full editor with all the posts quoted.

I underlined "post reply". Pressing this doesn't work for me - but pressing the "quote" button does.

I just thought, if Stutts can do it then I can.

With the benefit of hindsight would people have preferred the fixtures that we are left with as a result of UEFAs random draw or the fixtures that were 90% decided among the 6 associations themselves.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...e-2101188.html

Must say I would have preferred what the associations had (almost) come up with themselves.

Firstly they were more fan friendly with two away double headers (Russia & Armenia) and (Macedonia & Slovakia).

We would have avoided the prospect of the Macedonia in the June heat (granted we past that test)

But most importantly we wouldn't have had the two double header weeks with Russia and Slovakia (which is a case of mission unaccomplished from the first leg of that test.)

Its a moot point now of course but still no harm in engaging in a hypothetical analysis.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by French Toasht

With the benefit of hindsight would people have preferred the fixtures that we are left with as a result of UEFAs random draw or the fixtures that were 90% decided among the 6 associations themselves.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...e-2101188.html

Must say I would have preferred what the associations had (almost) come up with themselves.

Firstly they were more fan friendly with two away double headers (Russia & Armenia) and (Macedonia & Slovakia).

We would have avoided the prospect of the Macedonia in the June heat (granted we past that test)

But most importantly we wouldn't have had the two double header weeks with Russia and Slovakia (which is a case of mission unaccomplished from the first leg of that test.)

Its a moot point now of course but still no harm in engaging in a hypothetical analysis.

---

I'm happy enough with what we have to be honest. Bar the Russia game at home it has more or less gone to plan.
I prefer the campaign ending with the 2 weakest teams in the group as it means that if we have to knock the them for six we can make a fist of it.

I'd rather head into those games knowing what we have to do to qualify than say playing Andorra and Armenia over the next 2 games and then face Russia and Slovakia as our last 2.

To be honest, we always do well with our fixtures (I know UEFA set these... but...).
There seems to be an attitude within the FAI to get a home game and an away game against the other to bigger teams in just after the start of the campaign and have the returns just before the end of the campaign.

I'm happy enough with the timing. However, not only is it important to have everyone fit, we also need everyone playing. Last autumn we had too many players with very little club football under their belts. We need everyone available and match sharp.

If we get the win in Dublin we can go to Moscow absolutely brimming. Regardless of that result the last two games will be massive.

If we do manage to beat Slovakia at home, how do people reckon we should approach the Russian game in Moscow? Go for the win with the aim of ensuring that finishing top is within our own hands, but at the obvious risk of leaving ourselves vulnerable at the back and coming away with nothing, or play for a draw and hope Russia drop two points in Slovakia, although a draw could very likely ensure we qualify automatically as the best second-placed team anyway?

If we draw in Moscow, we need Russia to lose in Slovakia; a draw'd be no good to us as they'd still be ahead of us on head-to-head.

If we beat Slovakia at home, coming away from Moscow with nothing isn't the end of the world; two wins in the last two games and we're guaranteed second in the group anyway.

Edit - sorry, the first bit is nonsense; Russia have already slipped up once. That actually makes it much more interesting alright. A draw might well be good enough; Russia seem generally shaky throughout this campaign (barring at Lansdowne, of course...)

agreed there stu the slovakia home game is the key now. hopefully we'l have dunne, sledge, doyle and duffer fit again. we are well capable of beating them.

No matter what the result against Slovakia, we should be playing for the win. If anything we should play with even more freedom should we beat Slovakia, since we'll be well in control of second place.

We should play the way we always do. And I think Trap, of all people, will stick to that.

I suppose it's open to debate whether we usually play for the win. :p

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SwanVsDalton

No matter what the result against Slovakia, we should be playing for the win. If anything we should play with even more freedom should we beat Slovakia, since we'll be well in control of second place.

---

Not entirely true if, say, the following not-all-that-unlikely scenario was to arise:

If we beat Slovakia, lose to Russia and win our other two, we'll finish on 22 points with 4 points from our 4 games against Russia and Slovakia.
If Slovakia lose to us but beat Russia and win their other two, they'll finish on 22 with 7 points from their 4 games against us and Russia.
If Russia lose to Slovakia but beat us and win their other two, they'll finish on 22 with 6 points from their 4 games against us and Slovakia.

That would leave us finishing third on 22 points.