Thats kind of implied by the word "net"Quote:
Where are net wages falling? If net wages are declining it is because of high inflation
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Thats kind of implied by the word "net"Quote:
Where are net wages falling? If net wages are declining it is because of high inflation
[QUOTEWhere are net wages falling? If net wages are declining it is because of high inflation][/QUOTE]
Read the post again and you will see that the second line is an explanation for the point i was about to make. I know the meaning of net. What i want you to show me is where are net wages falling.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
The minimum wage has certainly not fallen in "net" terms, in June 2003 it was €6.35, in June 2007 it will be €8.65, €8.65-€6.35= €2.30. €2.30/€6.35= 36% increase in the minimum wage.
I dont have the official inflation figures but i will use 4% for each year, this would be a high inflation rate,
1.04 to the power of 4 gives a compounded inflation for the 4 years of 17%.
36%>17%= Net increase in wages.
My point was related to guaranteed job. I suppose a semi-state job may be similar. People in the private sector may have strong job security but there are no guarantees. If you don't lose your job then as long as you can make mortgage payments then you can ride out the reduction in house value. The decentralised reference was to lower price house than the major urban areas.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
On the otherhand someone who might need to move across the country because he/she lost their job would not be able to ride out the price fall as need to sell the current house & will be selling at time when value has reduced.
But what if your govet department moves again? Or you get promoted and have to move?
Reasonable point but at least there would be a choice to improve your lot. I don't think the government have successfully forced any civil servant to move location yet?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
Maybe my decentralised point not a good one so. The advantage of large urban areas is that can hopefully find a different job without moving home.
No one's been forced yet but it is a live possibilty. Several of the specialists in my department will be forced to move. And they will not be getting similar job outside of Dublin
They're just trying to use tools of compulsion like no promotion without signing to go somewhere, no career prospects and the threat of whitewalling if you don't go*. They won't come out and say "move, or else" as then redundancy is due, as it would be in any employment, private or public. FF/PD have successfully spun the supposed voluntary nature as some consession to civil and public servants when it's them trying to avoid redundancy payments and moving expenses that would be due.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
*Shame on the CPSU, PSEU and to some extent IMPACT for rolling over on these issues
Decentralisation is a political campaign and not a policy one so and when your job location moves you should be entitled to redundancy. Anyway i think this going way off topic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
Everytime i switch on the news there seems to be a property report. I suppose if a crash not due the media will help manufacture.
Most peoples wages will increase by 2% this year (partnership). inflation is around 4% and rising. net decrease of 2% this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceirtlis
The national house price average has fallen for the first time in 5 years this month. Still crawling at a snail's pace in Dublin but dropping elsewhere.
The real worry is not the fall in house prices (I concur with Adam's views that its long overdue and have little sympathy, particularly for those who over-extended themselves to get into investment property) its the lingering fear that the whole Celtic Tiger has actually been a house of cards, built purely on property.
The pro-property pundits always use the general health of the economy and net migration as a justification for property prices to remain relatively positive going forward, reasoning that as long as their is new demand for houses, prices will not drop markedly.
However, if you look a bit closer you will see that a lot of the immigrants are working either directly in property sector (notably construction) or in the service industry which oils the wheels of the property sector.
Its possible to view this as a large vicious circle/self-perpetuating myth, with demand for property being driven primarily by the property sector itself.
Lets face it, as a nation we don't make anything physical, industry of any sort is non-existant outside of localised hotspots such as pharmaceuticals.
The service industry, including financial services, is relatively strong but I'm not sure it is strong enough and a large enough employer to justify what we have seen happen to the property market over the last 10-15 years.
Also, the high cost of living (principally property!) has made Ireland a much less attractive destination for Foreign Direct Investment than it was 10 or 20 years ago. FDI inflows have fallen over the past few years and we are no longer in any way a low cost destination.
Moreover, Ireland is becoming a less attractive destination for US FDI specifically as other countries have instituted similar tax breaks and the US authorities have gotten wise to the transfer pricing "schemes" that made Ireland such an attractive destination for the Microsofts of this world.
Whilst the likely outcome is a softening of the economy, there is probably somewhere between a 1 in 10 and 1 in 25 chance that it could all go tits up in a big way.
Obviously it's a political one - Departments moved based on where the Minister was based, with no reference to the National Spatial Strategy. Unfortunately most of the electorate to dumb to see it, especially in the places that think they're going to see all these jobs and don't notice a few FF/PD chums with development lands rubbing their hands, or house prices shooting up for their young.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
As for the redundancy - it's nothing to do with whether it's political campaign or policy. If your job moves beyond a reasonable distance (private or public sector) you're entitled to redundancy.
This thread has trailed off in recent times. Reports a few weeks ago have shown an actual drop in the average paid nationally for house prices. Even in Dublin increases have slowed to just 0.1%. Interest rates have risen again today and 2 or 3 more rises are expected by the year's end. Is the market about to grind to a halt or even crash?
House I left 2 months ago was listed at 325k, it's now 275k. I reckon he'll be lucky to get that.
adam
All the Celtic Tiger did was bring Ireland up to date. People seem to think that the bubble has to burst but why do people think we are in a bubble in the first place? There won't be any widescale depression IMO. Ireland is a modern country now and people thinking it will somehow go back to how it was in the 70's & 80's is unrealistic.
I should, however, point out that I am no financial guru or city analyst so the above is all uneducated opinion. ;):)
I have not heard anyone suggest we would go back to 20% unemployment. Bubbles by their nature burst it just depends if small or big bang.Quote:
Originally Posted by drinkfeckarse
Interest rate rises are no harm as will help bring us to a softer landing.
The EU will be pushing us to increase our Corporate tax rates but we need to resist as long as possible as would have very negative affect on the economy.
The reason bubbles burst is because there is nothing substantial inside them. As in nature also in economics. The current boom is based on an artificially inflated property market i.e. a bubble. It is unthinkable that it could continue to expand ad infinitum or even stabilise without deflating.
Bubbles always burst because the ones that didn't burst stop being called bubbles.
From a socio-algerbraic point of view, the dropping off of property values is a great thing for the people of Ireland.
All Property is theft
Theft is a crime
Therefore, if property is dropping in value, the amount of theft drops in value too, thereby lowering the amount of crime
Therefore, plunging house prices means that Ireland is becoming a safer place to live.
There may be one or two slight holes in the logic, but it works for me.
Camomile for you so?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluebeard
For the record, I don't believe Ireland is in a bubble or ever was. All that happened was that we modernised. No need to assume there's a great big fall waiting for us.
One or two? :eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluebeard
If you think believe private ownership is a crime I suggest North Korea as the place for you to emigrate to.
Fianna Fáil Manifesto - Election 2012 :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluebeard
Sorry did you miss this?Quote:
Originally Posted by drinkfeckarse
That is not opinion, it is fact. The fall in house prices is symptomatic of the @rse falling out of the economy i.e. a pin in the bubble.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
I think it may be symptomatic that the Construction sector falling. In recent years that has taken bigger portion of the economy which makes us more exposed.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
We are losing some manufacturing jobs but that was always likely as more people move into the Services sector. Its a bit like the move away from Agriculture in the past. I am not aware of any other sectors that suffering that much.
What sectors do we have left? The manufacturing/export based boom that was The Celtic Tiger ended around the turn of the century. We were saved a fall by the property bubble. Chickens roost home coming to.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
http://www.thepropertypin.com/
- PharmaceuticalsQuote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
- IT
- Services
- Finance
- Tourism
Dell was mentioned recently as Irelands biggest employer but at half those jobs in sales, support & other services. Dell is more a manufacturing company than an IT company.
IT had a big boom followed by a significant withdrawal but is fairly busy for last few years.
Ireland never had a sizeable manufacturing sector. We have few heavy industry largely due to our colonial past.
AKA manufacturing.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
Services are being moved abroad - call centres in India etc. Finance is totaly reliant on the other sectors. Tourism, well we can't all dress up as leprechauns for a living.
250,000 people are employed directly in the construction industry. This doesn't even count auctioneers and all the other people who rely on the property market.
IT = software & other services. Microsoft, Google, eBay to name high profile examples are not manufacturing companies. There are apparently 17,000 vacant IT jobsQuote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
Pharmaceuticals are not traditional manufacturing & not as price sensitive like say a toaster factory. This has been a large growth area for the last 5 years. The recent high profile announcement by Pfizer to let people go was worldwide decision & nothing to do with the irish economy - trials of a new drug failed so large drop in expected revenues.
There is no doubt as an economy we are exposed to the boom of the construction sector but Interest Rate rises will hopefully soften the downturn.
Call centres are minimal employer in Ireland & the trend is for call centres to move back from India.
As has always been the case the biggest threat to the Ireland economy is the World economy as we are so open & trade a lot. If EU Interest Rates are increasing it should mean the EU economy rising.
As I said one eight of the population is employed directly in construction. If one eight of the population's livelyhood is in jeapordy then consumer spending decreases leading to a downturn in other sectors including services. If services are hit then so is IT. Anyway you look at it its bad news for the Irish.Quote:
Originally Posted by pete
You are right that we are linked to the World economy. The biggest factors in the world economy are China and the U.S.A. The construction industry is in freefall in the US and consumer spending is down. The US is Chinas biggest market for its cheap consumer goods. If US spending is down, the effects of that will be felt in China. The EU is not immune to what happens elsewhere in the world economy. I would also argue that we are more prone to infection from whatever affects the US as we never had a developed indiginous economy and have relied on the multinationals far too much.
Kingspan Century cut jobs this week due to the "property crash" apparently.
Timber frame manufacture was always likely to drop off, signs of this have been clear for a while. Our construction industry is largely based on traditional tried & trusted methods & is slow to embrace new methods on a large scale (trust me i'd love it to change & alot of architects are constantly pushing for this to happen), TF has had alot of negative press (some deserved, some not so) in the last couple of years with a number of developments being erected substandard leading to massive problems further down the line! The vast majority of home buyers over here are still extremely wary of investing in TF homes, this is now being reflected in the reduction of orders & hence loss of jobs!Quote:
Originally Posted by Magicme
If its any consolation its generally accepted the first people to see the pinch in the construction industry are the architects/planners, from my perspective whereas the amount of new work has dropped off, realistically all its really done is drop from the ridiculous levels of 2/3 years ago to a more acceptable level, if its to collapse its either a couple of years off yet or will do so in a massive 'Black' monday type scenario!!
Could it have anything to do with the fact that we don't tend to want wooden homes, in Ireland?Quote:
Originally Posted by Magicme
Anyway, I believe that our economy is like nothing we've ever known, in this country. We were over dependant on farming, which was never modern or efficient enough, to allow farms be run as businesses.
We've modernised, as a state and now have a work force which is very diverse and is willing to diversify. The idea of someone staying in the same job for 50 years, will be a thing of the past.
People rarely moved home, with some families living in the same house for generations. The extended family was a support network and families tended to live in close proximity to each other.
Improved wealth and transport has changed all that and moving jobs is very common. As a consequence, moving house is much more common, than it used to be.
The state isn't finished it's upgrade, with communication & transport infrastructure continually being improved. We now list Tourism as our leading indigenous industry and have increased numbers of people involved in the service industry.
There's no doubt that our circumstances will change again. It's inevitable, as we live in an ever changing world, but we've proved many times that we're durable & adaptable, so there's no reason to believe that we wont be able to cope with significant change.
I'm no architect but aren't most modern houses built on a timber frame?
Quite simply, no!Quote:
Originally Posted by endabob1
Quite a lot of them though, at least down here. I'd say a good 50% of the developments I see are of timber-framed houses.
adam
I live in one which is why I asked the question, then again I live in Engerland so maybe it's more prevalent here. I know from my time in Oz virtually all modern houses there are timber framed.
Nearly sure that whole Tyrrelstown area is timberframe. Onghar anyway.
Parts of each (ongar & Tyrellstown) are, a friends of mine worked for the Architectural firms reponsible for both developments, according to them there have been loads of problems with the TF causing problems!Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
TBH Its partly their feedback that gave me the impression things were starting to swing back to traditional methods, as they & their clients were predominantly pushing the TF method as an cheaper method of construction and now seem to be going back to the traditional concrete block forms of construction!
Another colleague/friend works for a Timber Frame manufacturer and said the same thing, simply that the orders were reducing in number at a rate far greater than the reduction in theamount of new homes being built per quarter!
TBH i'm not debating here the pro's & cons of the different methods of construction i'm merely pointing out some observations & feedback i've recieved through work based on Magicme's post that Century Homes have let people go! If someone has more nationwide detailed figures i'll happily stand corrected!
What problems though? Pointing out problems without actually pointing out problems is typical of those involved in the business!