Russia v Republic of Ireland - Tuesday, 6th September 2011 - Euro 2012 Qualifier

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I'd rather the experience of O'Shea in the centre with Dunne. Put Foley or Kelly on the right. Our defence will have a lot of work to do if our plan is to inexplicably (?) go with the same approach that saw us dominated by Slovakia on Friday and down by three goals after 50 minutes to Russia 11 months ago. The prospect of O'Dea in there worries me. It's not really as if that Russian game was close either. We pulled two back - one of them a penalty - after they took the foot off the peddle completely.

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Is rather Josh be playing at all... doubt for Tuesday now.
Calf strain.

http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2011/0904/ireland_osheaj.html

here as well bonnie, says given getting treatment instead of training also

http://www.football365.com/news/2155...t-for-Republic

****.

I'm not too bothered if O'Shea dosen't make it. He looked a shell of a player against Slovakia and was awful against Macedonia away at center half. If he is not fully fit then he becomes a liability. Better to have a fully fit Foley at right full.

Given's a worry too. Although I'm hoping him sitting out training was just precautionary.

I see that Castrol calculation site updated their calculations today, so what I'd posted earlier seems to be how they rated our chances prior to the Slovakia game. Here is how they rate the chances of ourselves, Russia and Slovakia now.

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/c...a93a1c0632.png

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/c...547ee911eb.png

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/c...a8498e24b5.png

They still predict that we're most likely to finish second; just that our chance of qualifying is slightly less than it was before Friday night whilst the chances of the other two are rated as slightly higher.

Slovakia played as well as they are likely to play in this group on Friday (Russia away included). They have a real problem scoring goals They will struggle to score against Armenia on Tuesday. And I can't see them beating Russia for a second time. So the tables in DI's post do make sense.

O'Shea definitely out now. Big chance for Foley.

Semi-reinflated after friday's result. I can remember defeats that were easier to take than that draw. Individual performances ranged from poor to very poor but I'd reserve an exemption and special mention for Sean St. Ledger who continues to save his best for Ireland.

I've never really fancied us to get anything in Moscow so expectation is closed (it proved unreliable last week anyway) and hope is open for business. I might have better luck with her.

Very concerned about a repeat of the reverse fixture with our 442, soft centre combo. Against semi-decent teams there (almost) always seems to arrive that ominous moment soon enough into the game when the opposition midfield realise they have the measure of ours and begin pigging out on possession. It was especially pronounced and hard to watch against Slovakia. Oh for a modicum of presence and composure in there.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I see that Castrol calculation site updated their calculations today, so what I'd posted earlier seems to be how they rated our chances prior to the Slovakia game. Here is how they rate the chances of ourselves, Russia and Slovakia now.

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The disparity between Slovakian and Irish chances seems a bit off there doesn't it? I'd have thought our chances were fairly even at this stage..

My confidence is slowly returning.
Still haven't seen anything if our game since O left the stadium on Friday. It's probably best at this stage that that remains the case.

Why not stick Hunt in midfield. He often moves into the center when playing for Wolves. He has the energy to get up and down. And he will get stuck in. The Russians would not like playing against him. After Friday nights game I can't work out what Whelan and especailly Andrews are doing. If your not looking for the ball then at least get stuck in. Doing neither of these things is costing us.

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Originally Posted by Noelys Guitar

Why not stick Hunt in midfield. He often moves into the center when playing for Wolves. He has the energy to get up and down. And he will get stuck in. The Russians would not like playing against him. After Friday nights game I can't work out what Whelan and especailly Andrews are doing. If your not looking for the ball then at least get stuck in. Doing neither of these things is costing us.

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There's always a fear with Hunty that he could potentially do something mental and have a yellow after 10min and imagine if he was in the centre the risk of that could be even greater.

In the few minutes he was on the pitch he managed to wander over to the wrong side, when Ward went looking for him to pass to ball to, there was no Hunt to be seen, some evidence to back Charlie's claim that the lad lacks the spatial awareness to be in the middle.

I think its his personality as much as anything.that old fashioned gaelic football attribute of head down and get on with it. not having the cop/cuteness or maybe just innate skill to step back and think for a second

i was the one saying i'd like to see hunt in cm a few months ago, however away to russia in a crucial qualifier is not the place to try it.

if o'shea is out that will prob mean a back 4 of:
Foley Dunne O'Dea Ward

That is bound to lead to a few shakey moments, foley and ward have looked very nervous playng for us and o'dea can blow hot or cold.

Then what to do with the midfield? do we play an extra man and go 451 or stick with 442, 451 does sound appealling but who are we supposed to throw in. Lawrence or mccarthy are the only other options in the squad i think. jaysus maybe throwing hunt in as an extra man in a 3 man midfield is a serious option.

if we do go with a lone man up front presumably he won't drop keane. this role doesn't suit keane i don't think . long would have been ideal. doyle if fit could play there but just can't see him dropping keane.

all in all i expect trap to play442, the back four i mentioned above and the same mid and forwards as friday (maybe cox for doyle) , please god given is fit. and whelan and andrews can really up their games

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Originally Posted by Colbert Report

I've watched Robbie Keane play for years and I think his best position is at the top of the diamond, and in behind the front two as well. However, this formation would get us eaten alive against the likes of Russia. We're likely to get sliced and diced with two holding midfielders right in front of the back four. How do you think we'd fare with only one there?

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We'd fare ok if we were able to hold the ball and create. Robbie and Duff, and McGeady in his own inimitable way, are the only players on the park we have who can take a pass, hold the ball, and turn it into something positive. With those three in the middle, playing more compactly things would work. Maybe we need just the three of them with McCarthy showing for the ball from the defence and working it forward to them. Point is however, we need Robbie to drop back to create openings for the front two. There were no openings created from play on Friday night last.

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Originally Posted by Noelys Guitar

After Friday nights game I can't work out what Whelan and especailly Andrews are doing. If your not looking for the ball then at least get stuck in. Doing neither of these things is costing us.

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Beyond any limitation in ability, there's a certain meekness about them that doesn't help. Although I s'pose you could say the same about Kinsella and Holland and they weren't a bad partnership on the big occasion. I'd greatly appreciate it if some members of the Russian team, preferably those in any way fluent in english language insults of the mother-invoking variety, would take it upon themselves to provoke the pair of them immediately before kickoff on tuesday. I doubt a true nasty b@stard lurks within either but at the very least a repeat of the Andrews/Diarra confrontation after the home playoff against France would be a great prelude to the game and the atmosphere in general. Stoic gentlemen that they are though, I don't think the Russians will oblige.

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Originally Posted by Sullivinho

Beyond any limitation in ability, there's a certain meekness about them that doesn't help. Although I s'pose you could say the same about Kinsella and Holland and they weren't a bad partnership on the big occasion. I'd greatly appreciate it if some members of the Russian team, preferably those in any way fluent in english language insults of the mother-invoking variety, would take it upon themselves to provoke the pair of them immediately before kickoff on tuesday. I doubt a true nasty b@stard lurks within either but at the very least a repeat of the Andrews/Diarra confrontation after the home playoff against France would be a great prelude to the game and the atmosphere in general. Stoic gentlemen that they are though, I don't think the Russians will oblige.

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if either of them read this website their bound to be ****ed off

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Originally Posted by paul_oshea

I think its his personality as much as anything.that old fashioned gaelic football attribute of head down and get on with it. not having the cop/cuteness or maybe just innate skill to step back and think for a second

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Seeing as you had such a hard time making it in a direct fashion from a nearby pub to Craven Cottage, I suspect you may have a similar spatial awareness personality as Hunt.

Likely team for Tuesday
Westwood (Given should not play. Definetely looked uncomfortable against Slovakia. Carrying two different injuries back and groin is too much)
Foley/Kelly Dunne O'Dea Ward
Duff Whelan Andrews McGeady
Keane Doyle

I think Trap has more of a grá for Kelly so he'll probably get the nod. Strong potential for error in that defense as well-meaning as they are. The rest of 'em could hardly not improve on their previous performances so that's something I s'pose.

That defense will need a decent CM partnership protecting it.

I can't recall the CM pairing in the summer friendly's, but I suspect it was a missed opportunity to try something different - if something different even exists! Id add that I don't think Green is the answer - unless the question is whats the shirt colour!

Its the most important part of the park and dictates whether we spend the game on the back or front foot.

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Originally Posted by Sullivinho

Beyond any limitation in ability, there's a certain meekness about them that doesn't help. Although I s'pose you could say the same about Kinsella and Holland and they weren't a bad partnership on the big occasion. I'd greatly appreciate it if some members of the Russian team, preferably those in any way fluent in english language insults of the mother-invoking variety, would take it upon themselves to provoke the pair of them immediately before kickoff on tuesday. I doubt a true nasty b@stard lurks within either but at the very least a repeat of the Andrews/Diarra confrontation after the home playoff against France would be a great prelude to the game and the atmosphere in general. Stoic gentlemen that they are though, I don't think the Russians will oblige.

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I think they were both captains of teams in the English top division (whatever it was/is called). This suggests some leadership qualities, which to be fair were often evidenced in a green shirt.

A reprise of the attitude in the French away leg would certainly help though.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I see that Castrol calculation site updated their calculations today, so what I'd posted earlier seems to be how they rated our chances prior to the Slovakia game. Here is how they rate the chances of ourselves, Russia and Slovakia now.

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/c...a8498e24b5.png

They still predict that we're most likely to finish second; just that our chance of qualifying is slightly less than it was before Friday night whilst the chances of the other two are rated as slightly higher.

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They only gave Slovakia a 1.8% chance of winning the group and a 7% chance of qualifying prior to Friday? :rofl: Madness, I can't take any of their other stats too seriously after that.

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Originally Posted by Sullivinho

I think Trap has more of a grá for Kelly so he'll probably get the nod.

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That's what I think too.

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Originally Posted by Morbo

They only gave Slovakia a 1.8% chance of winning the group and a 7% chance of qualifying prior to Friday? :rofl: Madness, I can't take any of their other stats too seriously after that.

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Those estimations are post-Friday, which I think is strange. Prior to Friday, they were actually giving Slovakia a 1.5% chance of winning the group and a 6.6% chance of qualifying.

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Originally Posted by Noelys Guitar

Likely team for Tuesday
Westwood (Given should not play. Definetely looked uncomfortable against Slovakia. Carrying two different injuries back and groin is too much)
Foley/Kelly Dunne O'Dea Ward

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...I might have to start on the drink already.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Those estimations are post-Friday, which I think is strange. Prior to Friday, they were actually giving Slovakia a 1.5% chance of winning the group and a 6.6% chance of qualifying.

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Well, it's Castrol. So fume inhalation can't be ruled out as a contributing factor. :D

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Originally Posted by Sullivinho

Well, it's Castrol. So fume inhalation can't be ruled out as a contributing factor. :D

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Actually, sack the drink. Make mine a Castrol.

In essence, we can't afford to lose to Russia. We get a draw and win our remaining games then we may sneak it via the play-offs. Too simple an analysis?

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Originally Posted by Fergie's Son

Too simple an analysis?

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Not really. Basically, Slovakia have to beat our result in Russia now - if we finish level on points, we're ahead of them on head to head (away goals). If we draw in Moscow and win the last two (and we should do the latter anyway), then Slovakia have to win their last three games to come second (and they'd probably come first with that).

That said, given the injury list we have, it's hard to see us getting anything in Moscow.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Not really. Basically, Slovakia have to beat our result in Russia now - if we finish level on points, we're ahead of them on head to head (away goals). If we draw in Moscow and win the last two (and we should do the latter anyway), then Slovakia have to win their last three games to come second (and they'd probably come first with that).

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Not quite, given a draw for Slovakia against Russia and two wins in their other games means they'd top the group if we also draw with Russia.

Ah yes. That poxy three-way tie... Bugger.

Dunne and O'Dea isn't the quickest of pairings. Ideally I'd play Kelly as Dunne's partner but I don't think we can start Foley at RB.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Ah yes. That poxy three-way tie... Bugger.

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It really is such an illogical pile of bawlls to decide a group. why not just draw lots. We always do well there...

Is it going to be Doyle or Cox up front alongside Keane? Arshavin was on about Ireland and the long ball whole game and then even more long ball earlier on today. He has a point. Why are we launching the ball from Dunne up to Cox and Keane? Or to Doyle and Keane if it becomes clear Doyle is not winning his headers. I don't care if we play long ball the whole night but there has to be a decent target man winning the ball.

I'd go Doyle. He cannot play any worse that he did Friday. Key player for us and will hopefully come good.

Serious point here. Why is Caleb Folan or Leon Best not in the squad, even if it is just to throw them on for the last twenty minutes of long balls?

Bring back Gary Doherty! But to answer your question, both of them harmed their chances by not turning up for friendlies.

Wow! Whatever about Leon Best, I didn't know Caleb Folan was in a position to turn down invitations to friendlies. Unreal!