US credit downgrade/General recession thread

This bit of news seems to have fallen under the radar
€126bn debt

'IRELAND's national debt was €126.4bn at the end of July
December 2010 the Government had guaranteed bank debts valued at €113bn
The Central Bank has provided €49.5bn to Ireland's distressed financial institutions´

I don't think those figures are an accurate account of the total guarantee and the amount of distress relief aid


'It also values the National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) at €22.7bn at the end of 2010 but the NPRF said this had since fallen even further to €20.8bn at the end of June this year. The fund has invested €11.4bn in AIB and Bank of Ireland as part of the bank rescue programme which was down €4bn at the end of 2010 and has since reduced to €5.3bn. The value of the shares it purchased in both banks has collapsed with AIB's share price down 67pc and Bank of Ireland's down 72pc at the end of July 2011'

AFAIU, that means €4bn has been written off already or is it €6bn?
Undeterred, Noonan has earmarked another further "investment" of €10bn from the NPRF into AIB and EBS.

Italian town decides to secede from Italy.

http://www.rte.ie/news/av/2011/0922/media-3059970.html#

Read a report that Enda Kenny will not support a move by AIB to break the salary cap in place. Respect if they have taken that hard stance. FG and Kenny would've lost a lot of creditability.

Yeah it was headline news up until lunchtime

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

Yeah it was headline news up until lunchtime

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Was it yeah, too busy with work to be focussing on the lunchtime news.

Was on a morning half day

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

I still haven't received any confirmation of the RS ratios. God bless the DoE. I've re-sent the email today.

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Did you ever get a reply on that?

I was reminded of it by the news that the Government are looking at the rent supplement in the upcoming budget -

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Originally Posted by Irish Times article

It is understood the Government is hoping to generate [...] savings [...] from a substantial cut in the €500 million annual expenditure on rent supplements.

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So I can only imagine that'll lead to rents falling, and further property price falls?

So Greece is holding a bailout referendum - in the unlikely event that we ever held a similar vote, it would be easy to take the kneejerk option and vote no, but what would be the alternative to austerity? Wealth taxes and closing tax exile loopholes would only go partway to filling the shortfall, and Obama has had little to show to date for his job stimulus programme.

And already, one firm has applied for bankruptcy protection after Greece's 50% write off.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if Greece reject the austerity in a referendum. In fact, it'd surprise me if they passed it. That'd surely just drag things down further again.

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Originally Posted by culloty82

So Greece is holding a bailout referendum - in the unlikely event that we ever held a similar vote, it would be easy to take the kneejerk option and vote no, but what would be the alternative to austerity? Wealth taxes and closing tax exile loopholes would only go partway to filling the shortfall, and Obama has had little to show to date for his job stimulus programme.

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Exit euro, default, IMF only deal. There's ultimately no escaping austerity, but they may be justified in feeling that the austerity will be over quicker. As we might have been.

Have to say the coverage of the Greek Governments decision is really irritating. Imagine them have the audacity of them actually asking the people who are going to have to suffer the proposed programme whether they want it or the alternative? Several euro countries were willing to bomb Libya under the pretence that they wanted democracy, and yet now Greece is under massive pressure not to defer to it's people. It was one of the big problems of our last Government, especially the Greens who were supposed to be different to FF, that they never went to the people over the bank guarantee, or the original austerity plan, or them calling in the IMF.

However, I think the timeline the Greeks have proposed is also a bit ridiculous. I wouldn't be surprised if the eurozone take the decision for them and cut them loose, if the mechanism exists for them to do so (I'm not sure it does).

Papandreou was set to resign an hour ago, but now apparently isn't, while there may or may not be a national unity government formed in the coming hours - basically, it's like a repeat of Cowen's botched reshuffle day. A general election appears to be the likeliest solution to the chaos.

Don't think I've ever heard a foreigner speak English in a Native American accent before. Sounds weird!

Sky News now reporting the referendum has been scrapped. Greece had earlier been told to accept the bailout or leave the euro. The euro ain't going down without one hell of a battle.

There's no clause for leaving the Eurozone, but they can leave the EU (which, of course, means leaving the eurozone too)

Europe seriously needs to get its act together.

Specifically by all ganging together and invading Russia. The winter isn't far away, it's the last thing they'd expect.

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Originally Posted by Mr A

Europe seriously needs to get its act together.

Specifically by all ganging together and invading Russia. The winter isn't far away, it's the last thing they'd expect.

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Definitely. No one's ever tried that before.
http://pandora.cii.wwu.edu/vajda/rus...emlinpic15.jpg

Meh. Third time lucky.

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That is what so brilliant about it! We will catch the watchful Hun totally off guard! Doing precisely what we have done eighteen times before is exactly the last thing they'll expect us to do this time!

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One step closer to a world where there's a Blackadder quote for every occasion. :)

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Originally Posted by culloty82

Papandreou was set to resign an hour ago, but now apparently isn't, while there may or may not be a national unity government formed in the coming hours - basically, it's like a repeat of Cowen's botched reshuffle day. A general election appears to be the likeliest solution to the chaos.

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That was one of my favourite days' ever. It was a car crash from start to finish. *sigh*

Was gonna go to bed early tonight but VB is gonna be a good un.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

I still haven't received any confirmation of the RS ratios. God bless the DoE. I've re-sent the email today.

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Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Did you ever get a reply on that?

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Well, completely forgot to get back on here to tell you my response.

I sent a third email basically outlining how ridiculous it is that the DOE could ignore my query when I know that I would get into s1it for doing the exact same thing AND they are my ultimate boss (I work for a local authority).

Almost straight away (within a day or two), I received an acknowledgement for all my emails at once and then I was told someone will be onto me with an answer.

Two days after this I received an answer which went something a little like this...

"Thank you for your query. The DOEHLG do not administer RS so do not have the appropriate figures. Please contact the Department of Free Money (Social Protection).

Now, to be pedantic, the DSP didn't administer RS at the time of my email. They do now, but the HSE did then.

Anyway, the reason they were queried on the question was because I thought (wrongly) that all the RAS and RS and housing waiting list stats that we emailed into the DOEHLG on a regular basis went towards the creation of an overall picture and helped to formulate and guide social and housing policy. They should have the figures.

I give up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCFyHEnIf8Q

That's what they want you to do. :)

Looks like the next Greek PM will be Lucas Papademos - an ex-governor of the Bank of Greece, a Vice-President of ECB and member of the Trilateral Commission, presumably he'll step down after the February elections.

Berlusconi to quit - when the reform bill is passed through parliament. Elections are unlikely to happen before February, and given the vast number of parties in the Italian parliament, the outcome is a bit of a lottery.

Yeah, Italy edging towards needing the IMF. Borrowing at 6.6% - seems 7% is the tip-over point. We're at 8.5% or so, and Greece are at 33%.

Debts of E1.8 trillion, so dunno how that'd possibly work out. Is it too simplistic to say that if they go broke, they're just straight out of the EU? I know everything'll be done to avoid that, but it's not really working.

No, if they hit 7% it's pretty much game over, the euro collapses almost instantly, and time to get the punt templates back out of the Central Bank. There was talk last week that the only way Greece could leave the euro would have been to exit the EU, but it seems Italy's still the world's 8th largest economy, so business as usual couldn't cater for a collapse that size.

They're at 7.45 now...

At best, you'd give the euro about 12 months given the way affairs are progressing at the minute. Berlusconi now plans to retire totally, rather than contest the next election, his PdL party is an FF-style catch-all coalition of "Christian democrats, liberal-centrists, liberals, social democrats, liberal conservatives, national conservatives and grassroots (?)", so that looks likely to implode without him as the glue.

I hope this payment last week is a long ball game as suggested on the Frontline that'll see an IOU cashed in down the road. Before seeing the comments and being influenced, if possible, it's what's my view on it was. Austerity measures in some sectors isn't bad for the country anyway. The money wasted in public services, I'm not looking to brandish everyone with the same brush not all are reaping big money, but public expenditure on social welfare and public services has to be brought under control.

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Originally Posted by legendz

I hope this payment last week is a long ball game as suggested on the Frontline that'll see an IOU cashed in down the road. Before seeing the comments and being influenced, if possible, it's what's my view on it was.

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Well it may keep us in a reduced size euro zone. Probably saved us being thrown in to the Greek and Italian Crisis that's happened subsequently. Relative to the amounts already paid and promised, it was hardly the time for "Ireland Defaults" headlines for the amount that was paid.

I honestly don't think anyone has a plan, but you'd have to wonder is it time for controls on the secondary bond markets - there's no real reason for Italy to be in this position but for speculation!

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Originally Posted by legendz

The money wasted in public services, I'm not looking to brandish everyone with the same brush not all are reaping big money, but public expenditure on social welfare and public services has to be brought under control.

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It's all about genuine reform though. Too early to say whether that'll come from Croke Park, but if the alternative is simple pay cuts then that's not the answer either. Similarly with Social Welfare - if there is Welfare Trap (and I think it's a very big if), the solution doesn't have to be rate cuts, it can be retention of some benefits if you take up employment, and easy on and off benefits if short term work comes available. But again, the debate centre's around rate cuts. Pay and Welfare Cuts aren't the hard decisions, they're the easy, and lazy, ones.

Max Keiser is predicting that China will buy a lot of Italian gold (4th biggest supply in world), before the IMF come in (ie loss of sovereignty), which is interesting if it happens, but I dont know what china needs with a lot of gold!

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Originally Posted by Macy

It's all about genuine reform though. Too early to say whether that'll come from Croke Park, but if the alternative is simple pay cuts then that's not the answer either. Similarly with Social Welfare - if there is Welfare Trap (and I think it's a very big if), the solution doesn't have to be rate cuts, it can be retention of some benefits if you take up employment, and easy on and off benefits if short term work comes available. But again, the debate centre's around rate cuts. Pay and Welfare Cuts aren't the hard decisions, they're the easy, and lazy, ones.

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I don't know much about these thing payments I have to admit. There is a difference though between social welfare and dole if that's right? People who've worked for a number of years and have stamps built up should be covered by a certain amount for a certain lenght of time. The dole I understand is when the payments based on stamps run out. That should be a different rate level.

Doesn't need the gold. Could do with a European country in the back pocket though

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Originally Posted by legendz

I don't know much about these thing payments I have to admit. There is a difference though between social welfare and dole if that's right? People who've worked for a number of years and have stamps built up should be covered by a certain amount for a certain lenght of time. The dole I understand is when the payments based on stamps run out. That should be a different rate level.

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There already is a difference - Jobseekers Benefit is based on stamps, Jobseekers Allowance is the basic, but it's means tested.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

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Originally Posted by culloty82

Be afraid, be very afraid.

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Awesome. :)

This is gonna be fun. Where's me popcorn.

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Originally Posted by culloty82

Be afraid, be very afraid.

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As I said earlier, our compliance should see us in a reduced eurozone though. Now whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is a different debate - at this point I'd say good thing. We've missed the default, exit, devalue boat.

Should I be spending all my mattress euros now or what??

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Originally Posted by Lim till i die

Should I be spending all my mattress euros now or what??

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Would you not donate it to Athlone like the other fella?

Few interesting tips in here if Football Philantrophy is not your thing......

http://preparefordefault.ie/

Sites like that run by people that don't have the balls to identify themselves aren't worth the pixels they're written on.

How much longer can the Euro last with all this debt. Spanish 10 year bonds almost reached the supposed point of no return (7%) during their bond auction this morning finally selling at 6.975%.