Rankings

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Originally Posted by Cymro

I think my signature says it all, really.

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Wales is not bad at all,if you look at each player you got.I am very nervous about our next duel in Cardif in September that is so much important to us(in fact,I think you should let us win,to screw the English up :o ).On the other hand,your organization(at the back especially),your courage(cant think of better word) and your team spirit are below average.I watched you against Switzerland where you lost 4-1,but I had feeling that you could even win in that game only if you played a bit stronger and had proper fighting spirit.

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Originally Posted by Montenegrin

If we had beat Bulgaria,we would be in pot 1 for the next draw.Imagine that :cool: .

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As they say, remember your friends on your way up, because ....

I wouldn't put it past Montenegro to qualify ala Slovenia back in 2000. I think they were a fairly young team internationally at the time. Jovetic seems to be in the Zahovic mold, I enjoyed his escapades back then.

Montenegro in a play off? yay or nay?

I wouldn't fancy meeting them in a play-off

I think we could do worse or do better. I think they are roughly around our level.

We gave those kids their break when they were first starting out.

I'd have no qualms about getting the upper hand in a play-off, at least no more than normal.

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Originally Posted by geysir

We gave those kids their break when they were first starting out.

I'd have no qualms about getting the upper hand in a play-off, at least no more than normal.

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Qualms or reservations. I reckon we could do them. To be honest I'd rather win the group though. Not even thinking of the play-offs til the Russian game is over.

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Originally Posted by Montenegrin

Wales is not bad at all,if you look at each player you got.I am very nervous about our next duel in Cardif in September that is so much important to us(in fact,I think you should let us win,to screw the English up :o ).On the other hand,your organization(at the back especially),your courage(cant think of better word) and your team spirit are below average.I watched you against Switzerland where you lost 4-1,but I had feeling that you could even win in that game only if you played a bit stronger and had proper fighting spirit.

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Thank you, Montenegrin. I agree, our spirit is rubbish, and our defence is very bad indeed. I wish we were more like Montenegro and played as a team, to our potential, every game. That is what Montenegro have done in this group.

If Montenegro played ROI in a play-off, I would have to bet on Ireland, though. Ireland have the better players overall I think, although Montenegro have some very good individuals too, who are well known to everyone here. Jovetic is quality.

I just think Ireland would have a small advantage. If Given and Keane are fit they are probably worth two goals together. Wish we had them, we'd be a proper team then!

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

No, the W is there... it's just really really really small.

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Nah, that's a piece of lint. Looks like a W from a distance, though.

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Originally Posted by Cymro

Wish we had them, we'd be a proper team then!

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Ah... the Pan Celtic Union idea strikes again! :)

Do Montenegrin and Cymro have little "alert" devices installed that bleep when a football forum anywhere in the world mentions Montenego or Wales?

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

So, theoretically, if utilising friendlies for the purpose of anything other than trying to boost our ranking wasn't priority, we should be organising meaningless friendlies against opposition we're certain to beat approaching draw time?

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you mean like a friendly tournament featuring the football powerhouses of norn iron, wales and scotland?

actually, i presume given this was a 'tournament' it nevertheless has no greater weighting that normal friendlies. does the same sort of thing apply to stuff like the gold cup?

moving away from world cup rankings and onto uefa coefficient, it will be interesting to see if we are seeded should we end up in a playoff spot. i think this battle is a bit tighter, and there's a chance (i estimate maybe 35% chance but i might be WAY off) we could be.

i'm not clear though on which uefa co-efficient will be used; that as of the start of the qualifying campaign:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_co...am_coefficient

or those that will be used for the finals proper:

http://www.football-rankings.info/se...el/euro%202012

i'd imagine the latter, which means we are currently 20th in uefa, with norway catchable? in the current 2nd place standings we'd be fifth i think, but if we caught norway, 4th and seeded.

euro 2012 2nd place teams (with russia speculatively replaced by us)
montenegro (currently auto qualify as best 2nd place team)

seeded:
croatia
czech rep
sweden
norway

unseeded:
ireland
slovenia
belarus
belgium

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

Do Montenegrin and Cymro have little "alert" devices installed that bleep when a football forum anywhere in the world mentions Montenego or Wales?

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Indeed I do!Only for this forum though...

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Originally Posted by zero

i'm not clear though on which uefa co-efficient will be used; that as of the start of the qualifying campaign:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_co...am_coefficient

or those that will be used for the finals proper:

http://www.football-rankings.info/se...el/euro%202012

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I think UEFA decide this once they've worked out their favoured teams in the play-offs.

Montenegrin

Just out of interest whats the current situation with Kosovo and a national football team? Didn't they gain independence a few years back. Was just wondering whats the hold up on them establishing a football team?

Also did people notice Bosnia played Romania at the weekend, I thought they were still indefinately suspended from international football, due to the governance of the FA. UEFA must have backed down on that one?

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

UEFA must have backed down on that one?

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Not likely!

Bosnia backed down and appointed a single Federation President last week.

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

Also did people notice Bosnia played Romania at the weekend, I thought they were still indefinately suspended from international football, due to the governance of the FA. UEFA must have backed down on that one?

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They amended their association's constitution and UEFA lifted the ban, so they're fine to play again: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/b...fifa-euro-2012

Edit: Or as pineapple stu says. :)

Really?

Whos heading up their FA now? I thought that really was an intractable dispute considering the history in the region and was a very arbitrary ruling by FIFA.

I think the two choices were stay as they were and be kicked out of FIFA/UEFA and go bankrupt, or do whatever FIFA/UEFA told them. Not great options either way really. Unsurprisingly, having a national federation at all won out over political stability.

A classic example of FIFA being overly meddlesome and officious in intervening in the governance of a national FA, yet a blind eye is casually turned to the widespread corruption in its own ranks.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/g...latter-gallery

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I think UEFA decide this once they've worked out their favoured teams in the play-offs.

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Beat me to it ya shoite!

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

Montenegrin

Just out of interest whats the current situation with Kosovo and a national football team? Didn't they gain independence a few years back. Was just wondering whats the hold up on them establishing a football team?

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There's difficulty with Serbia I would say. Serbia continue not to recognise Kosovo's independence as does the Republika Srpska in Bosnia. So I would say that will put the kybosh on any attempt for the elevation to FIFA of the Football Federation of Kosovo.

Interesting article from Nov 2009 on the issue: http://www.playthegame.org/news/deta...o-fa-4579.html

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

Montenegrin

Just out of interest whats the current situation with Kosovo and a national football team? Didn't they gain independence a few years back. Was just wondering whats the hold up on them establishing a football team?

Also did people notice Bosnia played Romania at the weekend, I thought they were still indefinately suspended from international football, due to the governance of the FA. UEFA must have backed down on that one?

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Well,Kosovo is an independent country,but not quite so...Most of the European countries recognized it,but on the other hand most of the countries in the world does not,including Russia and China that have veto right in the security council at UN.As the result of this,Kosovo is not a member of the UN and needs permission from Serbia to play competetive international football.Otherwise,FIFA wont allow it.
Situation in Bosnia was well explained by others.

Afaiu, If Serbia FA gave permission, then Kosova could be a full FIFA member regardless of UN recognition.

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Originally Posted by geysir

Afaiu, If Serbia FA gave permission, then Kosova could be a full FIFA member regardless of UN recognition.

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Do turkeys vote for Christmas?

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Originally Posted by geysir

Afaiu, If Serbia FA gave permission, then Kosova could be a full FIFA member regardless of UN recognition.

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This is correct.

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Originally Posted by FIFA Statutes

10: Membership

6. An Association in a region which has not yet gained independence may, with the authorisation of the Association in the country on which it is dependent, also apply for admission to FIFA.

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Of course, not that it's likely to happen.

Hence we have the Faeroes as a separate FA.

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Originally Posted by zero

moving away from world cup rankings and onto uefa coefficient, it will be interesting to see if we are seeded should we end up in a playoff spot. i think this battle is a bit tighter, and there's a chance (i estimate maybe 35% chance but i might be WAY off) we could be.

i'm not clear though on which uefa co-efficient will be used; that as of the start of the qualifying campaign:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_co...am_coefficient

or those that will be used for the finals proper:

http://www.football-rankings.info/se...el/euro%202012

i'd imagine the latter, which means we are currently 20th in uefa, with norway catchable? in the current 2nd place standings we'd be fifth i think, but if we caught norway, 4th and seeded.

euro 2012 2nd place teams (with russia speculatively replaced by us)
montenegro (currently auto qualify as best 2nd place team)

seeded:
croatia
czech rep
sweden
norway

unseeded:
ireland
slovenia
belarus
belgium

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The playoff rankings are probably deserving of their own thread, but since everyone is still in 'lets win the group' mode, its maybe too early for one yet.

As far as I know this is the set of rankings that will be used:

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

At the moment we're 15th in Europe and have a good chance of being seeded if we end up in the playoffs.

Here are the rankings of the most likely playoff teams with the other possibilities in brackets.

8 Greece (6 Croatia) (17 Israel)
9 Sweden (25 Hungary)
13 Denmark (10 Portugal) (20 Norway)
14 Czech (33 Scotland)

15 Ireland (7 Russia) (12 Slovakia)

18 Turkey (32 Austria) (34 Belgium)
21 Slovenia (19 Serbia) (29 N Ireland)
24 Montenegro (22 Swiss) (31 Bulgaria) (5 England)
26 Romania (28 Belarus) (37 Albania) (23 Bosnia)

Edgar

Long shot but any way at all that that win over Italy will sneak us into pot 2?

So after the win against Italy .... we are on 752 points in the Ranking system ...... does that still leaves us in 33rd spot when the rankings come out at the end of the month?

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

Edgar

Long shot but any way at all that that win over Italy will sneak us into pot 2?

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No! ;-)

Well we were tipped to be 33rd after a predicted 3 wins (NI, Scotland & Macedonia) and one loss (Italy). So presumably after a victory against Italy, we have to be higher than 33rd now, still though it would have to be some jump to get us into pot 2.

Edgar, I have been trying to work out the dramatic rise for Norway and am absolutely baffled still. Their position makes no sense when you consider, they were the 2nd placed team with the lowest points in the last campaign and thus missed out on a playoff place. In this campaign, they have beaten Iceland, Cyprus and Portugal, drawn with Denmark and lost to Portugal. Aside from the one victory over Portugal they don't seem to have done anything all that miraculous, to account for their rise to Pot 1.

Perhaps they had some dreadful results 4 years ago that were discounted?

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Originally Posted by geysir

Wales have scraped out of the frying pan into pot 5.
Beating the whipping boys NI, saved their bacon.

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Not quite. Faroe Islands beat Estonia and Wales remain in pot 6. I think everyone will hoping to get Faroe from Pot 5 :)

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Originally Posted by Bottle of Tonic

How did Montenegro acheive such a high ranking? They've only been in two campaigns right? Doing admirably but hardly setting the world alight. We've been decent for a couple of years now, yet seem to find it hard to make any significant progress upward ie out of pot flaming 3.

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Montenegro will have 915 points in the June and July rankings.

484 points are from only 4 matches, all in the EURO qualifiers: the wins against Switzerland, Bulgaria and Wales and the draw against England.

Define decent. Let's look a bit at Montenegro. They've got 1177.5 points (individual match points) from their win against Bulgaria and 1342.5 (individual match points) from the win against Switzerland - all in the last 12 months.

They also have only 30 matches in the last 4 years.

Ireland, on the other hand, have no matches with more than 1000 points. They do have three over 900: Cyprus twice and Georgia. None of these are in the last 12 months.

You also have 42 matches in the last 4 years, so your points are divided by more matches than Montenegro's points.

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Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

Edgar, do the rankings factor in whether Paul McShane was in the team or not? Our win against Scotland must have been even more valuable.

(Sorry Paul, feel guilty about that. Go get 'em cap'n.)

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I guess FIFA are working on that :)

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

Edgar

Long shot but any way at all that that win over Italy will sneak us into pot 2?

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No, you're 21st in Europe now, 27 points behind Slovakia, the last team in Pot 2.

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Originally Posted by French Toasht

Well we were tipped to be 33rd after a predicted 3 wins (NI, Scotland & Macedonia) and one loss (Italy). So presumably after a victory against Italy, we have to be higher than 33rd now, still though it would have to be some jump to get us into pot 2.

Edgar, I have been trying to work out the dramatic rise for Norway and am absolutely baffled still. Their position makes no sense when you consider, they were the 2nd placed team with the lowest points in the last campaign and thus missed out on a playoff place. In this campaign, they have beaten Iceland, Cyprus and Portugal, drawn with Denmark and lost to Portugal. Aside from the one victory over Portugal they don't seem to have done anything all that miraculous, to account for their rise to Pot 1.

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Norway. Well, they did beat Portugal (1440 individual match points), Cyprus (1177.5) and Iceland (907.5) in the last 12 months. They also have wins against Scotland and Macedonia between 12 and 24 months ago. When averaged with the other matches, these 5 wins make about 502.5 points of the total 972 Norway will have in June/July.

Cyprus were ranked 35 when Norway won against them in a qualifier.

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Originally Posted by Edgar

No, you're 21st in Europe now, 27 points behind Slovakia, the last team in Pot 2.

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That seems painfully close. What would it have taken to make up those 27 points? Can the FAI petition FIFA for a July friendly date with Burkina Faso? :p

That's a good point.

Who reckons that the FAI actually monitors our ranking and its significance.

You need two wins in July against two teams ranked in the FIFA Top 4. :)

I see the Elo ratings have us ranked 20th in the world now in light of our 2-0 victory over Italy.

A few others who we've played recently or have been discussed in this thread for comparison with their FIFA ranking, as of the 18th of May, in brackets:

Italy are 12th (9th);
Russia are 21st (18th);
Norway are 23rd (11th);
Montenegro are 41st (24th);
Scotland are 46th (66th);
Slovakia are 56th (26th);
Burkina Faso are 67th (44th);
Macedonia are 83rd (85th);
Northern Ireland are 88th (65th).

I'm not merely saying this because the ELO ranking system is favourable to Ireland, but acrosss the board it seems to be the more equitable system of ranking teams.

For example Scotland are twice the team NI are, yet they are ranked behind them in the FIFA rankings. The ELO system is more realistic in terms of Norway's meteoric rise in the FIFA rankings, considering they havn't beaten anyone of consequence bar Portugal in recent times. Ok the Slovakia ranking in the ELO system is quite harsh, but at the same time, they have had two horrowshows against Andorra recently and were beaten by Armenia.

Delighted to hear Faroes are in pot 5 now. Well done Brian Kerr. I'm trying to think of what a comparable achievement would be with the Irish team, and I would say it would be the equivalent of Ireland reaching the quarter finals of a WC.

And to think, the Faroes conceded 2 goals in injury time to lose to Estonia in Tallinn