Scotland at the crossroads

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

What was the point in including in the GFA a provision for a referendum allowing for NI to leave the union with a simple democratic majority if the whole thing is as meaningless as you suggest?

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I didn't suggest it was meaningless, rather that it wasn't set in stone for centuries to come. It's a deal to allow what's effectively a British local authority to run with limited real powers and an opposition of two or three members. Not a means to wish away the border.

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Who's going to back-track on that deal?

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Unionists, in the unlikely event that Nationalists ever look like getting beyond 50%?

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Originally Posted by culloty82

GR won't be worrying unduly about McGuinness's NI referendum - it'd take at least 30 years before there would be a majority, and that's only on the big assumption that all Catholics would vote Yes

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Indeed. Maybe they could all vote twice each to make it livelier. You do realise that Catholics do occasionally vote for- and even lead- non-Nationalist parties?

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Originally Posted by culloty82

GR won't be worrying unduly about McGuinness's NI referendum - it'd take at least 30 years before there would be a majority, and that's only on the big assumption that all Catholics would vote Yes.

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I'm with Marty on this one.

Bring on the Border Poll - 2016 suits fine.

'Scottish independence: Orange Order in Ulster Scots referendum call': http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-19710873

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People with an Ulster Scots background should be allowed to vote in Scotland's independence referendum, a senior Orange Order member has said.

Dr David Hume said Ulster Scots had played a key role in Scottish history.

"We are stakeholders as well. Surely a decision such as this should not ignore our input?" he said.

He was speaking at a Grand Orange Lodge of Scotland event in Glasgow to commemorate the centenary of the anti-Home Rule Ulster Covenant.

"In 1912 Scots unionists watched anxiously for Ulster, and in 2014 Ulster will watch anxiously for you as nationalists seek to win a referendum which would alter totally the constitution of our nation," he said.

"A union without Scotland would be a poorer place."

He added: "We will not forsake you as your forefathers did not forsake us.

"Many of them were not born in Ulster so they could not sign the covenant, but they held it in their hearts. We will not forget you for that and the continuing support you give to us."

Dr Hume said Ulster Scots "provided the first unifying force in Scotland in the 6th Century AD and we later extended Scottish influence to Ireland in the 17th Century".

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How would that work exactly? Sounds like rhetoric to me.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

How would that work exactly? Sounds like rhetoric to me

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Sounds like a p*ss-take on the SNP's own contortions- they want their supporters outside Scotland to have a vote, so it's only reasonable that their opponents have one too.

And the St Andrew's Cross-roads have been reached.

Section 30 agreement signed today by Cameron and Salmond.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-19942638

Here's the agreement.

Powers were transferred last week to allow Holyrood to hold a referendum in 2014.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-21039886

Great website dedicated to the "question" here.

"Scottish independence: 'Scotland Olympic team could be in Rio'": http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/24081596

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Scotland will press ahead with plans to have Olympic and Paralympic teams at Rio 2016 if the country votes for independence in a year's time, says Scottish Sports Minister Shona Robison.

Ahead of the referendum on 18 September, 2014, the MSP told BBC Sport she was confident Scotland would meet the strict conditions in order to become an Olympic nation.

"We're comfortable and assured Scotland will have its own Olympic and Paralympic team. It will bring many benefits," she said.

Robison, the Scottish National Party MSP for Dundee City East, said more Scots would get the chance to participate in Brazil and future Games if independence became a reality.

She also insisted Scottish athletes would not be disadvantaged by independence, even though they would be denied access to traditional funding streams and facilities.

"We have made substantial investments," said Robison, explaining that Scottish athletes would have access to a "fantastic new velodrome and a fantastic new sports arena" in Glasgow as well as a new £25m performance centre for sport in Edinburgh.

But not everyone is convinced that Scotland - which hosts the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow - would be better off competing as a separate nation.

Badminton player Imogen Bankier, who represented Scotland at the 2010 Commonwealth Games and Britain at the 2012 Olympics, has told BBC Sport that her country does not have the facilities, funding or depth of talent to make a major impact at future Olympics.

"We're lucky with the way that it stands now for Scotland," said the 25-year-old from Glasgow.

"We can tap into the English system and be part of Team GB when it suits us and use it our advantage. Independence would mean we would lose that. That's only going to see sports suffer."

For Scotland to become an Olympic nation in its own right, it would need to fulfil several criteria:

• To be an independent state recognised by the international community
• To have a solid sporting structure, such as national federations, sports clubs, etc
• To have at least five national federations affiliated to international federations with sports included in the Olympic programme

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WEEEEIIIIIRRRRDDDDDDDDDD!!!

Just coming in to post some links.

1 year to the Referendum. I'm very excited by this.

Q&A
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13326310

Debate in Scots Parliament
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-24127510

Latest poll sees the No lead down to five, could Yes improbably win?

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Originally Posted by culloty82

Latest poll sees the No lead down to five, could Yes improbably win?

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Anymore on the polls in the lead in to this ? Cameron and his cabinet seem have a policy of largely smug condescension and belittlement which would make a yes vote all the more hilarious, were it to happen.

I think the World Cup could actually be a good time for the Yes side with the "whole country" getting behind INGERLAND!

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Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke

Anymore on the polls in the lead in to this ?

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You Gov published on 1 May

Yes 37%
No 51%
Unsure/ Not Voting 12%

I think the polls for this referendum are variable where ever you look, the yes vote tends to be somewhere between 40% to 48% at the moment, which does show a 5% to 10% increase compared to the start of last year. It seems the nearer the referendum is coming, the more the yes vote is gaining.

So the consensus is that after last night's debate Salmond won by a mile. Darling let slip that Scotland could use the "pound in the event of a Yes vote". Now that was never in doubt as anyone with half a brain knows.

Anyway, the Yes side seems to have the momentum now.

Hon Bonnie Scotland!

If ya missed it:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...versus-darling

I don't quite see what the benefit of remaining in the union is to Scotland, other than for people who view the UK as one country, one people. If you feel separate and distinct from the rest of the union, you express your national identity as a separate country in sports, you have your own devolved parliament, etc, self-determination should be a no-brainer. I don't understand the mentality that you can be Scottish but still think you're better off being on the periphery of another country, which many in Scotland seem to at least consider. But then again as Irish people we're a bit more into self-determination than others.

I can't fathom why any Scot would vote no.

The havoc it will wreck upon the Northern Unionist identity is quote something.

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Originally Posted by krank.ie

I’ll Take the High Road – Scottish Independence Debates
Monday night saw the second debate of the Scottish Independence Referendum Campaign. Unlike the first one which was held on August 5th, there was a clear winner this time around: Alex Salmond and the Yes Scotland campaign. So much so that even the venerable pro-Union Daily Telegraph’s commentary has begrudgingly said so. Will the debate change the minds of those who have so far been planning to vote “No”?

Unlikely. At this stage though, the most important voters out there are the “Don’t Knows”. They are the ones who need to be convinced of the merits of an Independent Scotland over the status quo that has existed since 1707 (or technically 1801 since Ireland was coerced into the United Kingdom or 1922 when part of Ireland left the Union).

A poll conducted after the debate by The Guardian showed that 71% of Scots watching the debate felt that the First Minister had been victorious, with former Chancellor of the Exchequer under Gordon Brown and leader of the pro-Union Better Together campaign Alastair Darling trailing in his wake on 29%.

The Yes Campaign has struggled to escape the clutches of the big “Currency Question” of the last few months. With the Tory-led Parliament stating that Scotland would not be allowed to use Sterling if Scotland were to vote “Yes”, it seemed that Yes Scotland had been hit with a sucker-punch which would be impossible to recover from.

However, in recent weeks it has seemed that the momentum has swung in favour of the Yes Campaign as they try, and succeed, to claw back Better Together’s, at one time, seemingly unassailable lead.

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http://www.krank.ie/category/n_ca/wo...dence-debates/

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

I can't fathom why any Scot would vote no.

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Plenty of people are unconvinced about their economic future (just as plenty of people are convinced that it will be fine).

And in the name of Jesus too, of course:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8MmTTP2WWw

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Originally Posted by osarusan

Plenty of people are unconvinced about their economic future (just as plenty of people are convinced that it will be fine).

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Thanks for that. Sure that goes without saying. You would swear that being marginalised in a State of 60m would be good enough of a reason.

As I said, I can't fathom why any Scot would vote no.

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Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin

I don't quite see what the benefit of remaining in the union is to Scotland, other than for people who view the UK as one country, one people

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OK, but why not ask some of the majority of voters likely to think that way (between 52- 57% according to this week's polls)?

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If you feel separate and distinct from the rest of the union, you express your national identity as a separate country in sports

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Perhaps not the best example you could choose. Your country's 'national' sports teams are in most cases shared with another country. Where many eligible players prefer to represent the other country's separate teams.

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you have your own devolved parliament, etc, self-determination should be a no-brainer

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They're self-determining through the referendum. Even if the result turns out to be one you don't like or understand

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I don't understand the mentality that you can be Scottish but still think you're better off being on the periphery of another country, which many in Scotland seem to at least consider

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Do you think your 'mentality' (ie attitude to nationality) is the only one possible? I'm from NI but prefer the periphery of Britain to independence. My cousin in Quebec doesn't want to leave Canada. Ditto her sister in California, and the USA?

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But then again as Irish people we're a bit more into self-determination than others

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As above, you prefer shared teams; you don't understand others' preference for a different self-determination;at the practical politics level your Governments have never made any real effort to move the border in Ireland, or to give those citizens living beyond it a chance to vote.

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Originally Posted by Bonnie Shels

The havoc it will wreck upon the Northern Unionist identity is quite something

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I doubt it. There'd be a brief period of hysterics then abnormal politics would resume (ie, not a united Ireland nor independent NI).

Looks very familiar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8MmTTP2WWw

Wait, has Jesus taken an official line on this? Nothing for 2000 years and now he instructs people to vote in the Scottish Independence referendum. Truly the lord moves in mysterious ways.

Love the short solitary clap for your man.

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Originally Posted by BonnieShels

As I said, I can't fathom why any Scot would vote no.

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You can't fathom why somebody might be so concerned about economic problems after independence that they'd vote No?

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Originally Posted by bennocelt

Looks very familiar

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... Because you first encountered him on this thread in the post only three posts up from your own? :p

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Originally Posted by osarusan

You can't fathom why somebody might be so concerned about economic problems after independence that they'd vote No?

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Maintaining the status quo is a safe option for many. Plenty probably think things are just fine as they are and would rather avoid jumping into the relative unknown with all its perceived risks: "Don't fix it if it ain't broke." The independence option is a radical one. Sadly, it's the same reason why a fair number of voters in the north who would otherwise identify as nationalists might vote to remain in the UK if there was ever a referendum on the Irish question.

I'm sure there are also plenty of others in Scotland who primarily identify as British; their cultural identity gravitates towards the notion of Britain as a whole and/or as Scotland being an integral part of that.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Maintaining the status quo is a safe option for many. Plenty probably think things are just fine as they are and would rather avoid jumping into the relative unknown with all its perceived risks:

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Yeah, I'm sure there are some Scots for who the idea of independence is so alluring as to supercede any concerns about other consequence of leaving the union, but I'm sure there are some who don't feel that way.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Sadly, it's the same reason why a fair number of voters in the north who would otherwise identify as nationalists might vote to remain in the UK if there was ever a referendum on the Irish question.

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Ineed, and perhaps some in the south who wouldn't want a United Ireland, for much the same reasons.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I'm sure there are also plenty of others in Scotland who primarily identify as British; their cultural identity gravitates towards the notion of Britain as a whole and/or as Scotland being an integral part of that.

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I'd guess that these aren't the Scots that BonnieShels is referring to though, but I might be wrong.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I'm sure there are also plenty of others in Scotland who primarily identify as British; their cultural identity gravitates towards the notion of Britain as a whole and/or as Scotland being an integral part of that.

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Its incorrect to say that you are culturally 'British'. British is a political term for the people that live in the United Kingdom. You are either culturally English, Scottish, Welsh, Irish, Manx, Cornish, or an Islander in the UK. So if people in Scotland vote No based on the reason that they feel British, they are completely wrong and do not understand anything about themselves as an identity within a political union.

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Originally Posted by TheBoss

Its incorrect to say that you are culturally 'British'. British is a political term for the people that live in the United Kingdom. You are either culturally English, Scottish, Welsh, Irish, Manx, Cornish, or an Islander in the UK. So if people in Scotland vote No based on the reason that they feel British, they are completely wrong and do not understand anything about themselves as an identity within a political union.

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Britishness is certainly a culture as defined by a large number of people. They might not be wholly representative but there is certainly a British culture that supersedes and is at other times incongruous with the sub-nationalities within it.

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Originally Posted by TheBoss

Its incorrect to say that you are culturally 'British'. British is a political term for the people that live in the United Kingdom. You are either culturally English, Scottish, Welsh, Irish, Manx, Cornish, or an Islander in the UK. So if people in Scotland vote No based on the reason that they feel British, they are completely wrong and do not understand anything about themselves as an identity within a political union.

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And British culture would be the shared culture or combination of sub-cultures of the people of the UK. What you're saying is that you understand their identity better than they do? There's no strict limitation as to what constitutes or defines a culture. The parameters are vague and very much fluid. If someone says they feel culturally British, who is anyone else to tell them they're mistaken?

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

There's no strict limitation as to what constitutes or defines a culture

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Apart from the only incidence of it outside Dublin being agriculture, obviously?

Ka-boom and er, tish. I think the Boss is being unnecessarily exclusive there.

In relation to what I said previously said it was more gathered towards how a Scot should not vote. They should only vote No for Social, Political, and Economic reasons rather than nationalism/unionism or culture. Although some will inevitably.

But I still do stand by my comments that there is no identifiable British culture. English culture may have minor influences in Scotland and vice versa, but that does not make it one unique culture. I can accept the term British in relation to the collective (like European, we don't say we are European, we say we are Irish) but not as an individual. British is a nationality not an cultural identity.

Some Scots inevitably will, indeed, because the idea behind the democratic concept is that there is no particular way that one should vote. Scots will vote whatever way they want, for whatever reasons they want. Just because some might vote for cultural reasons, or reasons to which you don't attach any great significance, doesn't mean they're somehow getting it all wrong. That's an inherently undemocratic thing to say.

As far as British culture is concerned, is it really your place to say? You seem to have a very objective, precise and exclusive idea of what constitutes a cultural identity; so limited, in fact, that it implies that those who identify by a British culture are actually misguided as to their own personal and collective/communal identity. You may not acknowledge the existence of such a culture or cultural identity, but that's no more than your subjective perception and perspective.

I think the Scots will vote to remain in the union. They won't be able to blame the English anymore.

The latest YouGov poll figures, released the other day, had 'yes' at 47% and 'no' at 53%. YouGov has regularly reported lower levels of support for independence than the other polling companies, so it's a big morale boost for the 'yes' campaign. The predicted 'no' vote has been in free-fall, so it'll be very tight with a fortnight still to go.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Some Scots inevitably will, indeed, because the idea behind the democratic concept is that there is no particular way that one should vote. Scots will vote whatever way they want, for whatever reasons they want. Just because some might vote for cultural reasons, or reasons to which you don't attach any great significance, doesn't mean they're somehow getting it all wrong. That's an inherently undemocratic thing to say.

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Just because I may disagree with someone because of the way they may vote, is far from undemocratic. Its called an opinion. They can do what they want, I just dispute it.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

As far as British culture is concerned, is it really your place to say? You seem to have a very objective, precise and exclusive idea of what constitutes a cultural identity; so limited, in fact, that it implies that those who identify by a British culture are actually misguided as to their own personal and collective/communal identity. You may not acknowledge the existence of such a culture or cultural identity, but that's no more than your subjective perception and perspective.

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Nationalism is one of the most flawed ideologies that any person can have in my opinion. Its all about the 'us' and 'our land', making themselves out to be different for all other groups of people but genetically we are all the same. There is absolutely no difference between peoples from our part of the world, only how we live our lives in a collective isolation. Whether we call ourselves either Irish, British, English, Scottish, Welsh, etc, is irrelevant really, we may be culturally different but that does not mean that we have to be extremely nationalistic about it, or in the case of British, a collective nationalism. Britain has only existed since 1700, so when Ireland was part of the union between 1800-1921, that meant Irish suddenly became British which was only created 100 years previously, and then became Irish again from 1921 onwards?

Look at Arab world, they all share a common identity and culture, can you tell me the difference between an Tunisian and a Moroccan? The land that Arabs live in today is divided up into countries for political reasons. They may say they are proud Algerians but their Arab like their neighbours.

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Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

The latest YouGov poll figures, released the other day, had 'yes' at 47% and 'no' at 53%. YouGov has regularly reported lower levels of support for independence than the other polling companies, so it's a big morale boost for the 'yes' campaign. The predicted 'no' vote has been in free-fall, so it'll be very tight with a fortnight still to go.

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The 'No' campaign has focused far too much on attacking Salmond and attacking the 'Yes' campaign. From talking with people that recently went to Scotland, the impression got was that the 'No' campaign could hardly give a positive reason for staying, all their points were based on the negative, "you can't do this/that" etc. where as the 'Yes' campaign was about optimism and positivity for the future. I think a Yes vote is very likely.

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Originally Posted by TheBoss

Just because I may disagree with someone because of the way they may vote, is far from undemocratic. Its called an opinion. They can do what they want, I just dispute it.

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Certainly, diversity in opinion is all good, but the notion that there is a certain way that they should vote, as if you know what's best for them, sounds imperious to me. Democracy upholds diverse opinions as valid, so to suggest certain ones might be invalid or wrong seems to be the antithesis of that.

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Nationalism is one of the most flawed ideologies that any person can have in my opinion. Its all about the 'us' and 'our land', making themselves out to be different for all other groups of people but genetically we are all the same. There is absolutely no difference between peoples from our part of the world, only how we live our lives in a collective isolation. Whether we call ourselves either Irish, British, English, Scottish, Welsh, etc, is irrelevant really, we may be culturally different but that does not mean that we have to be extremely nationalistic about it, or in the case of British, a collective nationalism. Britain has only existed since 1700, so when Ireland was part of the union between 1800-1921, that meant Irish suddenly became British which was only created 100 years previously, and then became Irish again from 1921 onwards?

Look at Arab world, they all share a common identity and culture, can you tell me the difference between an Tunisian and a Moroccan? The land that Arabs live in today is divided up into countries for political reasons. They may say they are proud Algerians but their Arab like their neighbours.

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Ethnicity isn't a concept that is based purely on genetic make-up or the alleged genetic differences between various peoples. The outmoded theory or construct of race has been well and truly debunked and shown to be biologically obsolete - genetic variation can be greater within supposed "races" than between them - but there are, nevertheless, differences between different groups of peoples by virtue of their very existence. From different experiences grow different traditions and cultures. That doesn't necessarily have to be a negative or divisive thing. I'm not necessarily saying that nationalism is the best ideology by which humanity should organise itself or around which it should arrange its societies either, but national cultures can also be progressive, celebratory and bonding in nature. Obviously, ethnic nationalism can often take on a much more nasty face than its civic cousin, but it's no reason to dismiss the entire concept of nation as being completely flawed relative to all other ideologies. It's as much or as little a perception-based human construct as any other human ideology really.

There's an Ulster-Scots community in the Laggan district of east Donegal along the border with Derry. Despite many of those in this community having been born and bred south of the border, they don't culturally identify as Irish. Rather, they culturally identify as British, and that's fair enough. Who's to say their misguided? DUP members, Maurice Devenney, Willie Hay and Basil McCrea are some prominent members from this community. Their British identity has no official recognition (unlike the mirror nationalist community across the border in the north, who were similarly "caught on the wrong side of the border" upon partition, but who do have official recognition of their Irish identity), but I wouldn't feel it was my place to deny this community their wish to culturally identify however they wish. National identity can transcend state borders and boundaries. My own father was born in Tyrone, officially part of the UK, but he has never identified as anything other than Irish. It's the same for the broader nationalist community in the north. Culture and national identity are fluid concepts; there are no hard and fast rules as to what is and isn't a valid cultural identity.

Latest poll gives "Yes" a slight lead: http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0906/641...-independence/

Which is notable since its the first poll since 12 months ago to do so: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...dum,_2014#2014

Some of the English headlines tomorrow regards Scotland are all sorts of mental. Really going to see things get desperate now, I'm sure David Cameron doesn't want to be the PM that oversaw the dismemberment of the UK.

Seems there are talks of Federalism and Devo-max now on the table this week.

Hopefully the Scots see fit to tell them to f-off at this stage.

The SNP wanted other options on the ballot 2 years ago but they were refused. Hate that!

Incidentally Stephen Harper, the Clown Prince of Calgary and the Prime Minister of Canada has weighed in opposing independence. If I was a No voter that would sway me to yes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ependence.html