I think that's what it will be as well. That said, if I had my way I'd swap Waterford for Dundalk or Galway. I know it's based on 5 year results, but if the league is to be as competative as possible, the last two years should have been weighed higher- it's a joke that a club that performed as poorly as WUFC did and cleartly were not good enough should be included in the new league.
Oh, and it'll be an absolute farce if UCD are left out.